The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[cclub75]

Nielsen Media Research (Thailand)

-Ad spending in the first six months of this year fell for the first time since 1999 (-0,48 % compare to first semester of previous year, at 43,6 billions THB). In 2006, total advertising in Thailand grew by 4,9% (year on year, compare to 2005) to 89,8 billion baht.

-But the decrease is getting heavier in Q2, with -6,16 % in june, year on year. That’s a bad sign.

Hopefully, the people at Nielsen Media Research, didn’t forget to use the magic stick at the end of their presentation : “We remain optimistic that the second half of the year would be better. Consumer sentiment should also improve as political stability returns with the general elections scheduled to take place later this year.“

Repeat after me : with the next elections, all our problems shall be solved. ;-)

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/12Jul2007_biz45.php

[quiksilva]

Fury over factory's shock closure Jobless workers blockroad to Suvarnabhumi

PENCHAN CHAROENSUTHIPAN, SUTHIWIT CHAYUTWORAKAN & ARANEE JAIIMSIN

The shock closure of a textile factory sparked an uproar yesterday as the Garment Labour Federation accused the firm of relocating to a neighbouring country to cut costs at the expense of about 5,000 workers who were immediately made jobless.

Promma Phumpan, chairman of the Garment Labour Federation, denounced the sudden closure of the factory, owned by Thai Silp South East Asia Import Export Co, as irresponsible and opportunistic.

Story Here

The start of a trend?

Soundman.

There was another story a few months back 17 textile factories closed and 18 opened of equivalent value. Garment firms are always going out of business. The story here is the way in which they shut up shop one day and hung a note on the fence saying sorry the factory is closed go home and refused to pay compensation, so its no wonder the workers are angry!

[Mid]

TCC: strong baht will claim more victims

Thu, July 12, 2007 : Last updated 14:42 pm

Thai Chamber of Commerce Chairman Pramon Suthivongse admitted that the strong baht has affected exporters and more small factories will be shut down.

He noted that he did not know why Thai Silp South East Asia Import Export Co Ltd was closed, but believed that the Thai baht is just one of the factors as the company could have shouldered financial problems. Still, he said the strong baht has raised the losses for exporters especially those in the textiles industry.

The Nation

[bingobongo]

more reality that must be embraced.......so much for Gross Domestic Happiness .......well done junta, well done

Worrisome Bangkokians spend less: Poll

According to the poll, most respondents are worried and 79 per cent of those surveyed cut their unnecessary expenses while 40 per cent think twice and compare prices before making a purchase decision.

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=30445

[chownah]

According to the poll, most respondents are worried and 79 per cent of those surveyed cut their unnecessary expenses while 40 per cent think twice and compare prices before making a purchase decision.

My sister in law used to fly up for her visits, then she started driving, now she is taking the bus.

[soundman]

There was another story a few months back 17 textile factories closed and 18 opened of equivalent value. Garment firms are always going out of business. The story here is the way in which they shut up shop one day and hung a note on the fence saying sorry the factory is closed go home and refused to pay compensation, so its no wonder the workers are angry!

Probably so, but a company with a legitimate workforce of over 5000 people is quite different from the smaller, fly by night enterprises of a couple hundred staff.

[Carmine6]

There was another story a few months back 17 textile factories closed and 18 opened of equivalent value. Garment firms are always going out of business. The story here is the way in which they shut up shop one day and hung a note on the fence saying sorry the factory is closed go home and refused to pay compensation, so its no wonder the workers are angry!

Probably so, but a company with a legitimate workforce of over 5000 people is quite different from the smaller, fly by night enterprises of a couple hundred staff.

I checked with my friend and this is not the company she used to work for, so they are one of the competitors that took orders away. They are not in Bangkok so I assume there may be some wage, rent, utilities advantage. One of the big customers did a quality check a few months ago, so that may be part of the reason the customers switched. But as I noted they are/were opening a factory in Vietnam as well.

[Carmine6]

BREAKING NEWS

Subsidized, but the thing really needed now is for the government to ramp spending. I hope they get some value back of course, say uniforms for government officials rather than just subsidizing this plant.

Garment factory cancels mass layoff, reopens

SAMUT PRAKAN, July 12 (TNA) – Cancelling its previous announcement closing operations and dismissing its labour force, Thai Silp South East Asia Import and Export factory agreed Thursday afternoon to resume producing garments for export Friday.

"As far as I know, the company is able to continue its business operations again thanks to financial assistance from the Thai Garment Manufacturers Association," said Labour Minister Apai Chanthanachulaka, who presided over a three-and-a-half hour negotiation session.

Attending the meeting were representatives of the dismissed workers, company executives and officials of the Ministry of Labour.

The resolution dismissed concerns of some 6,000 workers who were previously laid off en masse without prior notice. Since Wednesday, they had been blocking part of a road to Suvarnabhumi Airport to protest the company's sudden closure.

After the tripartite meeting at Samut Prakan City Hall, the minister proceeded to announce the successful negotiation before the protesting workers in Bang Pli district.

He added that the ministry would hold a special meeting to consider establishing a Thai Silp factory labour union at the request of the protesting labourers. (TNA)-E002

Edited July 12, 2007 by Carmine6

[stumonster]

Mr. Jamroon Wissawachaiyaphan, President of the Business and Tourism Association Pattaya, chaired a meeting on 11th July with the members and business people about the economic climate concerning business in Pattaya. Many topics were discussed in the meeting including the lack of trust from foreign investors who are withdrawing their interest in Thailand because of the new alien and business act. Plus the changes in the land act and concerns about tourism in Pattaya dropping dramatically because of the unstable political situation – mainly in the southern part of Thailand. All adding to the tourists fear about their safety. The strong Baht against other currencies is another concern. Banks are predicting that the dollar will drop further to come to a ratio of 1 dollar = 33 Baht.

http://www.pattayapeople.com/default.asp?F...;IdArticle=6612

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=130385

[LaoPo]

Garment industry at risk - "Up to 300,000 workers could lose their jobs..."

excerpts:

"Up to 300,000 workers could lose their jobs in the apparel industry if the baht continues its relentless strengthening against the dollar, industry sources warned on Friday.

Phongsak Assakul, president of the Thai Textile Manufacturing Association, has warned the government that Thailand's apparel industry, which employs more than 1 million people in the weaving, garment and textile sectors, was heading for a "genuine crisis" unless something is done about the baht, reported the Bangkok Post."

"Despite the appreciation, Thailand's exports grew 18 per cent in the first five months of 2007, but economists have pointed out that this surge was essentially in exports of high-tech items such as electronic, electrical appliances and automobiles, which account for nearly 70 per cent of all exports but all of which have a high import content.

Thailand's lower-tech export items such as garments and agricultural products are suffering from declining price competitiveness."

Note:

earlier reports talk about 16% growth and 64% High Tech items; where's the truth?

From: Bangkok Post/Today's top stories.

LaoPo

[Mid]

SMOKE & MIRRORS

[j_cheung]

Garment industry at risk - "Up to 300,000 workers could lose their jobs..."

excerpts:

"Up to 300,000 workers could lose their jobs in the apparel industry if the baht continues its relentless strengthening against the dollar, industry sources warned on Friday.

Phongsak Assakul, president of the Thai Textile Manufacturing Association, has warned the government that Thailand's apparel industry, which employs more than 1 million people in the weaving, garment and textile sectors, was heading for a "genuine crisis" unless something is done about the baht, reported the Bangkok Post."

"Despite the appreciation, Thailand's exports grew 18 per cent in the first five months of 2007, but economists have pointed out that this surge was essentially in exports of high-tech items such as electronic, electrical appliances and automobiles, which account for nearly 70 per cent of all exports but all of which have a high import content.

Thailand's lower-tech export items such as garments and agricultural products are suffering from declining price competitiveness."

Note:

earlier reports talk about 16% growth and 64% High Tech items; where's the truth?

From: Bangkok Post/Today's top stories.

LaoPo

Thailand's export industries are gradually moving upscale in the world supply chain ladder and abandoning the traditional high labour & low value-added products, such as textiles, to China, Vietnam & Indonesia. The same gut-wrenching changes had been happening in North America since the early 70s too. Hence, the need for higher vocational training for young people & displaced workers grows ...

[LaoPo]

Garment industry at risk - "Up to 300,000 workers could lose their jobs..."

excerpts:

"Up to 300,000 workers could lose their jobs in the apparel industry if the baht continues its relentless strengthening against the dollar, industry sources warned on Friday.

Phongsak Assakul, president of the Thai Textile Manufacturing Association, has warned the government that Thailand's apparel industry, which employs more than 1 million people in the weaving, garment and textile sectors, was heading for a "genuine crisis" unless something is done about the baht, reported the Bangkok Post."

"Despite the appreciation, Thailand's exports grew 18 per cent in the first five months of 2007, but economists have pointed out that this surge was essentially in exports of high-tech items such as electronic, electrical appliances and automobiles, which account for nearly 70 per cent of all exports but all of which have a high import content.

Thailand's lower-tech export items such as garments and agricultural products are suffering from declining price competitiveness."

Note:

earlier reports talk about 16% growth and 64% High Tech items; where's the truth?

From: Bangkok Post/Today's top stories.

LaoPo

Thailand's export industries are gradually moving upscale in the world supply chain ladder and abandoning the traditional high labour & low value-added products, such as textiles, to China, Vietnam & Indonesia. The same gut-wrenching changes had been happening in North America since the early 70s too. Hence, the need for higher vocational training for young people & displaced workers grows ...

I understand and agree.

Unfortunately it is a long process and doesn't really help all the families who are in need now.

Education & training in Thailand* is....hmmmm...how to describe it...?

A long way from [western] education, still.

The problem is (IMHO) that the Thai government (including previous ones) faile(d) to see the route to the future, since a long time, hence: the factories (owners!) close and move their production and, like you said, it happened in the US, EU and elsewhere before.....that should have been a lesson to the Thai govrnment(s).

It didn't, so far.

edit:

Maybe this will help:

Singapore and Thailand plan greater educational collaboration

SINGAPORE : There will soon be greater educational collaboration between Singapore and Thailand.

source: Channelnewsasia.com/Singapore news.

LaoPo

Edited July 13, 2007 by LaoPo

[Mid]

Baht, stock index hits new highs

Both Thailand's baht currency and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index continued to hit new highs for the past decade with the local currency appreciating to 33.23-33.30 to the US dollar and the SET index surging by 17.38 to 861.25 points in the morning trading session.

The baht continued its rise to a new high to 33.23-33.30 in morning trading, up from 33.29-33.40 to the dollar at the close of Thursday's trading session, although the government had initiated new measures to slow the currency surge.

The Post Publishing Public Co

[LaoPo]

Baht, stock index hits new highs

Both Thailand's baht currency and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index continued to hit new highs for the past decade with the local currency appreciating to 33.23-33.30 to the US dollar and the SET index surging by 17.38 to 861.25 points in the morning trading session.

The baht continued its rise to a new high to 33.23-33.30 in morning trading, up from 33.29-33.40 to the dollar at the close of Thursday's trading session, although the government had initiated new measures to slow the currency surge.

The Post Publishing Public Co

:D

HOLY MOLY....

They found THE solutions

"Federation of Thai Industries' chairman Santi Vilassakdanont suggested that foreign investors bringing funds to invest in the Thai stock market should be taxed to slow the baht's rise.

The Bank of Thailand should also impose additional regulations demanding traders in US dollars hold the greenback for more than 6 months and allowing exporters to deposit the dollars they gain with local financial institutions with interest returns.

At the same time, Thai entrepreneurs should be encouraged to exchange the bath into dollars and deposit them with financial institutions overseas or otherwise invest abroad."

NOW we can sleep...what a relieve...

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

BREAKING NEWS

Subsidized, but the thing really needed now is for the government to ramp spending. I hope they get some value back of course, say uniforms for government officials rather than just subsidizing this plant.

Garment factory cancels mass layoff, reopens

SAMUT PRAKAN, July 12 (TNA) – Cancelling its previous announcement closing operations and dismissing its labour force, Thai Silp South East Asia Import and Export factory agreed Thursday afternoon to resume producing garments for export Friday.

"As far as I know, the company is able to continue its business operations again thanks to financial assistance from the Thai Garment Manufacturers Association," said Labour Minister Apai Chanthanachulaka, who presided over a three-and-a-half hour negotiation session.

Attending the meeting were representatives of the dismissed workers, company executives and officials of the Ministry of Labour.

The resolution dismissed concerns of some 6,000 workers who were previously laid off en masse without prior notice. Since Wednesday, they had been blocking part of a road to Suvarnabhumi Airport to protest the company's sudden closure.

After the tripartite meeting at Samut Prakan City Hall, the minister proceeded to announce the successful negotiation before the protesting workers in Bang Pli district.

He added that the ministry would hold a special meeting to consider establishing a Thai Silp factory labour union at the request of the protesting labourers. (TNA)-E002

I have a few remarks/questions:

1. it's NOT about 5000 workers anymore....

"Social Security Office secretary-general Surin Jirawisit said 48,631 workers had been laid off from over 6,000 factories in Samut Prakan over the past six months." (from BKK Post)

2. Although I feel happy for the 5000 workers that "the Thai Garment Manufacturing Association promised full assistance to sustain its operations." I wonder what happened to the previous 48,631 workers...and assistance of the Thai Garment Manufacturing Association....Anybody ?

"However, Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn challenged Thai Silp's claims the factories were shut down due to the strong baht. ''The reality is that the factory closed because it can no longer depend on cheap labour to compete in the overseas market,'' he said."

Note: I think it's both: strong Baht AND not able to compete with overseas markets -anymore-.

3. I also wonder HOW much money this association has to help 5000 (!) workers; employed in 3 factories (same owners).

4. Personally, I don't think it's a good idea to subsidize companies -in trouble, whatever the reason- since it has been proved in the West that such subsidies does not help, on the contrary. Such companies, in the end, will go down, one way or another, unless they close and start elsewhere, where labor is cheaper.

It's the same, going on right now, even in China; factories in Eastern and Southern provinces move -sometimes overnight- their production to cheaper labor-regions WITHIN China...

LaoPo

[soundman]

HOLY MOLY....

They found THE solutions

"Federation of Thai Industries' chairman Santi Vilassakdanont suggested that foreign investors bringing funds to invest in the Thai stock market should be taxed to slow the baht's rise.

The Bank of Thailand should also impose additional regulations demanding traders in US dollars hold the greenback for more than 6 months and allowing exporters to deposit the dollars they gain with local financial institutions with interest returns.

At the same time, Thai entrepreneurs should be encouraged to exchange the bath into dollars and deposit them with financial institutions overseas or otherwise invest abroad."

NOW we can sleep...what a relieve...

LaoPo

Its easy to see through this one. Force all international currency speculators to buy up Thai through the stock market, with all the Thai business men selling. Then change legislation, watch the foreign investors panic & sell, the stockmarket crash, & the original Thai business man buy their shares back at a 25% - 40% profit for two months worth of market manipulation. back to normal. Easy money!

Soundman.

[LaoPo]

HOLY MOLY....

They found THE solutions

"Federation of Thai Industries' chairman Santi Vilassakdanont suggested that foreign investors bringing funds to invest in the Thai stock market should be taxed to slow the baht's rise.

The Bank of Thailand should also impose additional regulations demanding traders in US dollars hold the greenback for more than 6 months and allowing exporters to deposit the dollars they gain with local financial institutions with interest returns.

At the same time, Thai entrepreneurs should be encouraged to exchange the bath into dollars and deposit them with financial institutions overseas or otherwise invest abroad."

NOW we can sleep...what a relieve...

LaoPo

Its easy to see through this one. Force all international currency speculators to buy up Thai through the stock market, with all the Thai business men selling. Then change legislation, watch the foreign investors panic & sell, the stockmarket crash, & the original Thai business man buy their shares back at a 25% - 40% profit for two months worth of market manipulation. back to normal. Easy money!

Soundman.

Sounds nice, in theory.

The large investment boys aren't stupid; they know their business and will be out before the bell rings....

LaoPo

[stumonster]

I believe that forced liquidation of many portfolios in Asia will create further losses

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IG14Dj01.html

[soundman]

Sounds nice, in theory.

The large investment boys aren't stupid; they know their business and will be out before the bell rings....

LaoPo

Leaving who to sell out at the bottom? The Thai's won't buy back at a loss. Too much face concerned!

Who , including all the institutions, stops to think about possible knee jerk reaction legislation changes that might be brought in by an incompetant government, in the middle of what has become a bullish market after the constitution court's ruling? Making money on paper tends to have a beer goggel effect on most people, including institutional investors. You are right though, the institutional investors should know when to jump ship. What if no one is buying though?

If excessive taxes, or dollar retention schemes are implimented into the Thai stockmarket, the loss of credibility will be huge.

Soundman.

[samran]

Its easy to see through this one. Force all international currency speculators to buy up Thai through the stock market, with all the Thai business men selling. Then change legislation, watch the foreign investors panic & sell, the stockmarket crash, & the original Thai business man buy their shares back at a 25% - 40% profit for two months worth of market manipulation. back to normal. Easy money!

Soundman.

Sounds nice, in theory.

The large investment boys aren't stupid; they know their business and will be out before the bell rings....

LaoPo

Exactly what I was thinking Lao Pao. Were talking the State Streets, HSBC Funds managements etc etc of the worlds who are plonking their monies into Thailand, as part as a larger investment in the region. These are the movers and shakers on the SET, especially for the big caps. These guys aren't silly. But what they are doing is across the board. Thailand, HK, Singapore, China, Indonesia, Australia. All these stockmarkets are going gangbusters at the moment with their currencies going through the roof, with Thailand a late starter when it became apparent the huge gap in valuations. Thai equities were cheap, less so now, but their pricing -espeically for the big boys on the SET - is in line with their contemporaries on the other stock exchanges....if you do your sums.

[LaoPo]

Its easy to see through this one. Force all international currency speculators to buy up Thai through the stock market, with all the Thai business men selling. Then change legislation, watch the foreign investors panic & sell, the stockmarket crash, & the original Thai business man buy their shares back at a 25% - 40% profit for two months worth of market manipulation. back to normal. Easy money!

Soundman.

Sounds nice, in theory.

The large investment boys aren't stupid; they know their business and will be out before the bell rings....

LaoPo

Exactly what I was thinking Lao Pao. Were talking the State Streets, HSBC Funds managements etc etc of the worlds who are plonking their monies into Thailand, as part as a larger investment in the region. These are the movers and shakers on the SET, especially for the big caps. These guys aren't silly. But what they are doing is across the board. Thailand, HK, Singapore, China, Indonesia, Australia. All these stockmarkets are going gangbusters at the moment with their currencies going through the roof, with Thailand a late starter when it became apparent the huge gap in valuations.

Thai equities were cheap, less so now, but their pricing -espeically for the big boys on the SET - is in line with their contemporaries on the other stock exchanges....if you do your sums.

I feel a bit frustrated since I can't find reliable P/E's for Thai stocks... although I realize the P/E's don't say everything of course.

Profits, return on investment/equity/assets as well as NET profit margins should be [more] important as well.

Maybe I'm not looking good enough; I found the statistics about:

Transaction by Investor Group, Primary Market VS Secondary Market, (SET & mai)

Local investors versus FOREIGN investors: interesting to see:

http://www.set.or.th/en/info/statistics/tr...ion_market.html

LaoPo

[samran]

I have access to some of the good stuff through work. But sorry, I'm not allowed to share!

[LaoPo]

I have access to some of the good stuff through work. But sorry, I'm not allowed to share!

Reliable P/E's are not public 'stuff' ? If so, I wouldn't invest in Thai stocks.....I am not

But, if so, why not?

edit: sorry, of course I understand that you're not allowed to share your insight know-how, but P/E's are/should be public, right ?

I found the total "Overall Listed Company results including the 1st Quarter of 2007" from the website of SET, but no P/E's..

LaoPo

Edited July 13, 2007 by LaoPo

[samran]

I have access to some of the good stuff through work. But sorry, I'm not allowed to share!

Reliable P/E's are not public 'stuff' ? If so, I wouldn't invest in Thai stocks.....I am not

But, if so, why not?

edit: sorry, of course I understand that you're not allowed to share your insight know-how, but P/E's are/should be public, right ?

I found the total "Overall Listed Company results including the 1st Quarter of 2007" from the website of SET, but no P/E's..

LaoPo

Well, reliable stuff in so far as to say analyst reports and concencus reports from Bloomberg etc. You get a broader feel of what some of the 'experts' saying. Trust me, I ain't no expert!!

If you want some good insight, I sugest you open up a trading account with Phatra. They have good analysts there, probably some of the best in Thailand. Gives you instant access to their research, and they do share stuff with Merrill Lynch.

[LaoPo]

Well, reliable stuff in so far as to say analyst reports and concencus reports from Bloomberg etc. You get a broader feel of what some of the 'experts' saying. Trust me, I ain't no expert!!

If you want some good insight, I sugest you open up a trading account with Phatra. They have good analysts there, probably some of the best in Thailand. Gives you instant access to their research, and they do share stuff with Merrill Lynch.

Thanks a lot Samran; learned a lot.

The link below is interesting 'stuff' to use your words.

It shows a few indicators:

Crude Oil imports has a negative growth of -9.9% Jan-May....that surprises me and what's the explanation for this ?

Cement sales (building/constructing) is down -5.3% same period

Private Car sales are down -13.9% same period

There are, however, positive indicators as well, but the 3 important ones, above, indicates the non-confidence felt by Thai....I think.

https://www2.phatradirect.com/phatra/Resear...15/0629Econ.pdf

LaoPo

[j_cheung]

Garment industry at risk - "Up to 300,000 workers could lose their jobs..."

excerpts:

"Up to 300,000 workers could lose their jobs in the apparel industry if the baht continues its relentless strengthening against the dollar, industry sources warned on Friday.

Phongsak Assakul, president of the Thai Textile Manufacturing Association, has warned the government that Thailand's apparel industry, which employs more than 1 million people in the weaving, garment and textile sectors, was heading for a "genuine crisis" unless something is done about the baht, reported the Bangkok Post."

"Despite the appreciation, Thailand's exports grew 18 per cent in the first five months of 2007, but economists have pointed out that this surge was essentially in exports of high-tech items such as electronic, electrical appliances and automobiles, which account for nearly 70 per cent of all exports but all of which have a high import content.

Thailand's lower-tech export items such as garments and agricultural products are suffering from declining price competitiveness."

Note:

earlier reports talk about 16% growth and 64% High Tech items; where's the truth?

From: Bangkok Post/Today's top stories.

LaoPo

Thailand's export industries are gradually moving upscale in the world supply chain ladder and abandoning the traditional high labour & low value-added products, such as textiles, to China, Vietnam & Indonesia. The same gut-wrenching changes had been happening in North America since the early 70s too. Hence, the need for higher vocational training for young people & displaced workers grows ...

I understand and agree.

Unfortunately it is a long process and doesn't really help all the families who are in need now.

Education & training in Thailand* is....hmmmm...how to describe it...?

A long way from [western] education, still.

The problem is (IMHO) that the Thai government (including previous ones) faile(d) to see the route to the future, since a long time, hence: the factories (owners!) close and move their production and, like you said, it happened in the US, EU and elsewhere before.....that should have been a lesson to the Thai govrnment(s).

It didn't, so far.

edit:

Maybe this will help:

Singapore and Thailand plan greater educational collaboration

SINGAPORE : There will soon be greater educational collaboration between Singapore and Thailand.

source: Channelnewsasia.com/Singapore news.

LaoPo

The current need for higher vocational education isn't for more PCs in classrooms, school buildings or even discarding the archaic rote-learning programs (and that's a real LONG term problem!). It's the need for modernized trade schools that would cater graduating high school students who don't wish to enter University but are willing to learn a skilled trade for the IT, electronics and/or manufacturing industries. This would require a long-term collaboration and committment amongst the government, local private entreprises and of course their foreign direct investors.

Depsite the continuing 'confusion' from changes to FBA and its uncertain impact on foreign investment, there are some hopeful signs. The current legislative assembly did past a new education bill that mandates a compulsory 12 years of state-sponsored schooling. Let's hope this continues ...

[Carmine6]

Well, reliable stuff in so far as to say analyst reports and concencus reports from Bloomberg etc. You get a broader feel of what some of the 'experts' saying. Trust me, I ain't no expert!!

If you want some good insight, I sugest you open up a trading account with Phatra. They have good analysts there, probably some of the best in Thailand. Gives you instant access to their research, and they do share stuff with Merrill Lynch.

Thanks a lot Samran; learned a lot.

The link below is interesting 'stuff' to use your words.

It shows a few indicators:

Crude Oil imports has a negative growth of -9.9% Jan-May....that surprises me and what's the explanation for this ?

Cement sales (building/constructing) is down -5.3% same period

Private Car sales are down -13.9% same period

There are, however, positive indicators as well, but the 3 important ones, above, indicates the non-confidence felt by Thai....I think.

https://www2.phatradirect.com/phatra/Resear...15/0629Econ.pdf

LaoPo

On crude, it could be domestic production, but I'm thinking Econ 101 - it's a lot more expensive. In baht terms, import of "Motorycycles and Parts" in up 243% for Jan to May 2007 (3,014,000,000 baht) compared to Jan to May 2006 (878,000,000). Just those 5 months are higher than all of 2006 (2,133,000,000 baht) and double 2004 (1,549,000,000).

"Buses and Trucks" imports are up 46.5% for the Jan to May period.

Note that report is using the $ figures. The equivalent baht changes are Crude -18.5%, Cement 0.5% (small portion of imports anyway), "Passenger Cars" -27.4% with no split detail between personal and commercial.

Link to Bank of Thailand Import Export Data

[LaoPo]

Well, reliable stuff in so far as to say analyst reports and concencus reports from Bloomberg etc. You get a broader feel of what some of the 'experts' saying. Trust me, I ain't no expert!!

If you want some good insight, I sugest you open up a trading account with Phatra. They have good analysts there, probably some of the best in Thailand. Gives you instant access to their research, and they do share stuff with Merrill Lynch.

Thanks a lot Samran; learned a lot.

The link below is interesting 'stuff' to use your words.

It shows a few indicators:

Crude Oil imports has a negative growth of -9.9% Jan-May....that surprises me and what's the explanation for this ?

Cement sales (building/constructing) is down -5.3% same period

Private Car sales are down -13.9% same period

There are, however, positive indicators as well, but the 3 important ones, above, indicates the non-confidence felt by Thai....I think.

https://www2.phatradirect.com/phatra/Resear...15/0629Econ.pdf

LaoPo

On crude, it could be domestic production, but I'm thinking Econ 101 - it's a lot more expensive. In baht terms, import of "Motorycycles and Parts" in up 243% for Jan to May 2007 (3,014,000,000 baht) compared to Jan to May 2006 (878,000,000). Just those 5 months are higher than all of 2006 (2,133,000,000 baht) and double 2004 (1,549,000,000).

"Buses and Trucks" imports are up 46.5% for the Jan to May period.

Note that report is using the $ figures. The equivalent baht changes are Crude -18.5%, Cement 0.5% (small portion of imports anyway), "Passenger Cars" -27.4% with no split detail between personal and commercial.

Link to Bank of Thailand Import Export Data

Additional info:

"Private Car sales are down -13.9% same period" (from above):

Thailand: Vehicle sales decline 4.2% in June

By Automotive World staff writer (MVR)

13 July, 2007

Source: Automotive World

Vehicle sales in Thailand fell 4.2% year-on-year in June, bringing year-to-date sales down by 12.6%, Thomson Financial has reported, citing data provided by Toyota Thailand, which compiles statistics for the industry. A total of 53,222 vehicles were ...(story ends here; no further access)

:D

I wonder....WHO is telling the truth/lies to WHOM ?

LaoPo

[Carmine6]

Well, reliable stuff in so far as to say analyst reports and concencus reports from Bloomberg etc. You get a broader feel of what some of the 'experts' saying. Trust me, I ain't no expert!!

If you want some good insight, I sugest you open up a trading account with Phatra. They have good analysts there, probably some of the best in Thailand. Gives you instant access to their research, and they do share stuff with Merrill Lynch.

Thanks a lot Samran; learned a lot.

The link below is interesting 'stuff' to use your words.

It shows a few indicators:

Crude Oil imports has a negative growth of -9.9% Jan-May....that surprises me and what's the explanation for this ?

Cement sales (building/constructing) is down -5.3% same period

Private Car sales are down -13.9% same period

There are, however, positive indicators as well, but the 3 important ones, above, indicates the non-confidence felt by Thai....I think.

https://www2.phatradirect.com/phatra/Resear...15/0629Econ.pdf

LaoPo

On crude, it could be domestic production, but I'm thinking Econ 101 - it's a lot more expensive. In baht terms, import of "Motorycycles and Parts" in up 243% for Jan to May 2007 (3,014,000,000 baht) compared to Jan to May 2006 (878,000,000). Just those 5 months are higher than all of 2006 (2,133,000,000 baht) and double 2004 (1,549,000,000).

"Buses and Trucks" imports are up 46.5% for the Jan to May period.

Note that report is using the $ figures. The equivalent baht changes are Crude -18.5%, Cement 0.5% (small portion of imports anyway), "Passenger Cars" -27.4% with no split detail between personal and commercial.

Link to Bank of Thailand Import Export Data

Additional info:

"Private Car sales are down -13.9% same period" (from above):

Thailand: Vehicle sales decline 4.2% in June

By Automotive World staff writer (MVR)

13 July, 2007

Source: Automotive World

Vehicle sales in Thailand fell 4.2% year-on-year in June, bringing year-to-date sales down by 12.6%, Thomson Financial has reported, citing data provided by Toyota Thailand, which compiles statistics for the industry. A total of 53,222 vehicles were ...(story ends here; no further access)

:D

I wonder....WHO is telling the truth/lies to WHOM ?

LaoPo

Not necessarily lies. Seems to be terminology "Vehicle Sales", "Passenger Car Imports", "Private Car Sales", "Commerical Car Sales"

Like the cement stat, I noticed after I posted, that they were reporting Sales, and I had posted Imports. Completely different stats.