The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[LaoPo]

Well, reliable stuff in so far as to say analyst reports and concencus reports from Bloomberg etc. You get a broader feel of what some of the 'experts' saying. Trust me, I ain't no expert!!

If you want some good insight, I sugest you open up a trading account with Phatra. They have good analysts there, probably some of the best in Thailand. Gives you instant access to their research, and they do share stuff with Merrill Lynch.

Thanks a lot Samran; learned a lot.

The link below is interesting 'stuff' to use your words.

It shows a few indicators:

Crude Oil imports has a negative growth of -9.9% Jan-May....that surprises me and what's the explanation for this ?

Cement sales (building/constructing) is down -5.3% same period

Private Car sales are down -13.9% same period

There are, however, positive indicators as well, but the 3 important ones, above, indicates the non-confidence felt by Thai....I think.

https://www2.phatradirect.com/phatra/Resear...15/0629Econ.pdf

LaoPo

On crude, it could be domestic production, but I'm thinking Econ 101 - it's a lot more expensive. In baht terms, import of "Motorycycles and Parts" in up 243% for Jan to May 2007 (3,014,000,000 baht) compared to Jan to May 2006 (878,000,000). Just those 5 months are higher than all of 2006 (2,133,000,000 baht) and double 2004 (1,549,000,000).

"Buses and Trucks" imports are up 46.5% for the Jan to May period.

Note that report is using the $ figures. The equivalent baht changes are Crude -18.5%, Cement 0.5% (small portion of imports anyway), "Passenger Cars" -27.4% with no split detail between personal and commercial.

Link to Bank of Thailand Import Export Data

Additional info:

"Private Car sales are down -13.9% same period" (from above):

Thailand: Vehicle sales decline 4.2% in June

By Automotive World staff writer (MVR)

13 July, 2007

Source: Automotive World

Vehicle sales in Thailand fell 4.2% year-on-year in June, bringing year-to-date sales down by 12.6%, Thomson Financial has reported, citing data provided by Toyota Thailand, which compiles statistics for the industry. A total of 53,222 vehicles were ...(story ends here; no further access)

:D

I wonder....WHO is telling the truth/lies to WHOM ?

LaoPo

Not necessarily lies. Seems to be terminology "Vehicle Sales", "Passenger Car Imports", "Private Car Sales", "Commerical Car Sales"

Like the cement stat, I noticed after I posted, that they were reporting Sales, and I had posted Imports. Completely different stats.

Still the figures don't add up or are incorrect.

The website from phatradirect.com states (see website above):

Commercial Car Sales down -14,4% for Year-to-Date 2007

whilst:

""Private Car sales are down -13.9% same period"

So: I'm still puzzled but will try to sleep comfortably tonight...

LaoPo

Edited July 13, 2007 by LaoPo

[Carmine6]

Well, reliable stuff in so far as to say analyst reports and concencus reports from Bloomberg etc. You get a broader feel of what some of the 'experts' saying. Trust me, I ain't no expert!!

If you want some good insight, I sugest you open up a trading account with Phatra. They have good analysts there, probably some of the best in Thailand. Gives you instant access to their research, and they do share stuff with Merrill Lynch.

Thanks a lot Samran; learned a lot.

The link below is interesting 'stuff' to use your words.

It shows a few indicators:

Crude Oil imports has a negative growth of -9.9% Jan-May....that surprises me and what's the explanation for this ?

Cement sales (building/constructing) is down -5.3% same period

Private Car sales are down -13.9% same period

There are, however, positive indicators as well, but the 3 important ones, above, indicates the non-confidence felt by Thai....I think.

https://www2.phatradirect.com/phatra/Resear...15/0629Econ.pdf

LaoPo

On crude, it could be domestic production, but I'm thinking Econ 101 - it's a lot more expensive. In baht terms, import of "Motorycycles and Parts" in up 243% for Jan to May 2007 (3,014,000,000 baht) compared to Jan to May 2006 (878,000,000). Just those 5 months are higher than all of 2006 (2,133,000,000 baht) and double 2004 (1,549,000,000).

"Buses and Trucks" imports are up 46.5% for the Jan to May period.

Note that report is using the $ figures. The equivalent baht changes are Crude -18.5%, Cement 0.5% (small portion of imports anyway), "Passenger Cars" -27.4% with no split detail between personal and commercial.

Link to Bank of Thailand Import Export Data

Additional info:

"Private Car sales are down -13.9% same period" (from above):

Thailand: Vehicle sales decline 4.2% in June

By Automotive World staff writer (MVR)

13 July, 2007

Source: Automotive World

Vehicle sales in Thailand fell 4.2% year-on-year in June, bringing year-to-date sales down by 12.6%, Thomson Financial has reported, citing data provided by Toyota Thailand, which compiles statistics for the industry. A total of 53,222 vehicles were ...(story ends here; no further access)

:D

I wonder....WHO is telling the truth/lies to WHOM ?

LaoPo

Not necessarily lies. Seems to be terminology "Vehicle Sales", "Passenger Car Imports", "Private Car Sales", "Commerical Car Sales"

Like the cement stat, I noticed after I posted, that they were reporting Sales, and I had posted Imports. Completely different stats.

Still the figures don't add up or are incorrect.

The website from phatradirect.com states (see website above):

Commercial Car Sales down -14,4% for Year-to-Date 2007

whilst:

""Private Car sales are down -13.9% same period"

So: I'm still puzzled but will try to sleep comfortably tonight...

LaoPo

It's like telling a joke to a bunch of engineers. After the silence.... "Technically the rooster couldn't have done that because......

[Carmine6]

Vehicles in California include trucks, buses, motorcycles, etc. So the "vehicle" stat may include something other than passenger cars. Such as trucks and buses.

Whatever the discrepancy, focus on the trend.

[LaoPo]

Vehicles in California include trucks, buses, motorcycles, etc. So the "vehicle" stat may include something other than passenger cars. Such as trucks and buses.

Whatever the discrepancy, focus on the trend.

...and the trend is...................?

LaoPo

[Carmine6]

Vehicles in California include trucks, buses, motorcycles, etc. So the "vehicle" stat may include something other than passenger cars. Such as trucks and buses.

Whatever the discrepancy, focus on the trend.

...and the trend is...................?

LaoPo

Trend for which statistic?

[Carmine6]

Vehicles in California include trucks, buses, motorcycles, etc. So the "vehicle" stat may include something other than passenger cars. Such as trucks and buses.

Whatever the discrepancy, focus on the trend.

...and the trend is...................?

LaoPo

LaoPo, here's the full import ytd 2007 vs 2006. As usual I expect 2 people to download it and take a look. To me it looks like the more discretionary imports have declined (alcohol, toiletries and costmetics, watches and ornaments, non-monetary gold), while more basic imports have been stable or higher. Looks like a reasonable adjustment in spending due to high oil as well. Tons of motorcycles, fewer cars.

Import_YTD_vs_2006.pdf

[LaoPo]

Vehicles in California include trucks, buses, motorcycles, etc. So the "vehicle" stat may include something other than passenger cars. Such as trucks and buses.

Whatever the discrepancy, focus on the trend.

...and the trend is...................?

LaoPo

Trend for which statistic?

A trend has little to do with statistics....a(ny) trend comes first, than statistics but that's just my opinion.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Vehicles in California include trucks, buses, motorcycles, etc. So the "vehicle" stat may include something other than passenger cars. Such as trucks and buses.

Whatever the discrepancy, focus on the trend.

...and the trend is...................?

LaoPo

LaoPo, here's the full import ytd 2007 vs 2006. As usual I expect 2 people to download it and take a look. To me it looks like the more discretionary imports have declined (alcohol, toiletries and costmetics, watches and ornaments, non-monetary gold), while more basic imports have been stable or higher. Looks like a reasonable adjustment in spending due to high oil as well. Tons of motorcycles, fewer cars.

Thanks. Interesting list and again different figures...I'm not puzzled anymore...just flabbergasted

I can understand 'personal' goods declining BUT:

what strikes me is that imports 2006 versus 2007 of Computers & Accessories & Parts are way down....BUT exports of the same in the first 6 months of 2007 counts for 64% of total exports....and is WAY UP!

BUT what's really weird is that Crude Oil, Gasoline, Diesel, Kerosene (!) and other related 'energy' products are so dramatically down; that's odd because such enormous declines doesn't make sense to me.

Natural Gas is even down to -47.8% in just 5 months.

LaoPo

[jumnien]

In my experience, statistics in Thailand should be used for amusement purposes only. Don't take them seriously.

[LaoPo]

In my experience, statistics in Thailand should be used for amusement purposes only. Don't take them seriously.

You're the wisest here...and I mean that.

LaoPo

[Jai Dee]

Minister of Finance reports $600 million dollar influx into SET responsible for Baht appreciation this week

The Minister of Finance reports that more than 600 million dollars in investment has poured into the Stock Exchange of Thailand since the beginning of the week, resulting in continual appreciation in the Thai currency.

Minister of Finance Chalongpob Susangkarn (ฉลองภพ สุสังกร์กาญจน์ ) revealed that the Prime Minister has instructed finance officials to provide daily reports on the Thai Baht appreciation situation. Mr. Chalongpob said that the main reason for the Thai Baht's latest round of appreciation was due to 600 million dollars in investment funds entering the Stock Exchange of Thailand in the beginning of the week. The baht situation remains unstable due to uncertain foreign investment movements.

Prime Minister Gen Surayud Chulanont has urged officials to prepare for changing economic conditions, including heightened competition in the industrial sector due to technological advances, labor issues, and other factors. The Minister of Finance added that a Cabinet meeting on July 17th will involve discussiosn of measures to solve unemployment.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 14 July 2007

[soundman]

STOCK MARKET STRONG RALLY CONTINUES

Experts expecting SET bull market

Political stability fuelling momentum

PARISTA YUTHAMANOP The Thai equity market is set to begin a long bull run, says Phatra Securities. Optimism about regional economic growth, led by China, as well as low valuations and the prospect of general elections this year would drive foreign funds into the SET, said Ian Gisbourne, head of equity research for Phatra Securities.

''We see no discount from the political situation, because the flows are so strong. It is actually a bull run for emerging markets, not just the Thai market,'' he said yesterday.

The US investment bank Merrill Lynch expects emerging market equities to remain bullish throughout 2008, although returns in 2007 would be lower than in 2006.

Mr Gisbourne said the SET was expected to post earnings growth of 18.7% in 2008, compared with -1% this year.

Story Here.

Soundman.

[midas]

In my experience, statistics in Thailand should be used for amusement purposes only. Don't take them seriously.

.........................except for measuring the number of people at one time shopping for orchids ??

[Mid]

Political stability fuelling momentum

bloody big bets going on ,

glad I'm not holding the pot .

[VegasVic]

STOCK MARKET STRONG RALLY CONTINUES

Experts expecting SET bull market

Political stability fuelling momentum

PARISTA YUTHAMANOP The Thai equity market is set to begin a long bull run, says Phatra Securities. Optimism about regional economic growth, led by China, as well as low valuations and the prospect of general elections this year would drive foreign funds into the SET, said Ian Gisbourne, head of equity research for Phatra Securities.

''We see no discount from the political situation, because the flows are so strong. It is actually a bull run for emerging markets, not just the Thai market,'' he said yesterday.

The US investment bank Merrill Lynch expects emerging market equities to remain bullish throughout 2008, although returns in 2007 would be lower than in 2006.

Mr Gisbourne said the SET was expected to post earnings growth of 18.7% in 2008, compared with -1% this year.

Story Here.

Soundman.

Lets see now, last month we had Morgan Stanley hyping the SSE and the SET, now we have Merril along with this Thai brokerage house (and of course their objectivity is beyong reproach I'm sure ), next we will likely see Soloman or Goldman Sachs pumping up these markets in a very public fashion. Perhaps I have been investing too long and have seen situations like this play out before too many times, but if this isn't a flashing NEON sign waring you to head for the exits then I don't know what it will take. If you are already invested in these markets and are determined to remain so, then be prepared to learn a valuable lesson, if you are thinking of investing in the SSE or to a slightly lessor degree the SET then all I can tell you is caveat emptor!

[cmsally]

STOCK MARKET STRONG RALLY CONTINUES

Experts expecting SET bull market

Political stability fuelling momentum

PARISTA YUTHAMANOP The Thai equity market is set to begin a long bull run, says Phatra Securities. Optimism about regional economic growth, led by China, as well as low valuations and the prospect of general elections this year would drive foreign funds into the SET, said Ian Gisbourne, head of equity research for Phatra Securities.

''We see no discount from the political situation, because the flows are so strong. It is actually a bull run for emerging markets, not just the Thai market,'' he said yesterday.

The US investment bank Merrill Lynch expects emerging market equities to remain bullish throughout 2008, although returns in 2007 would be lower than in 2006.

Mr Gisbourne said the SET was expected to post earnings growth of 18.7% in 2008, compared with -1% this year.

Story Here.

Soundman.

Lets see now, last month we had Morgan Stanley hyping the SSE and the SET, now we have Merril along with this Thai brokerage house (and of course their objectivity is beyong reproach I'm sure ), next we will likely see Soloman or Goldman Sachs pumping up these markets in a very public fashion. Perhaps I have been investing too long and have seen situations like this play out before too many times, but if this isn't a flashing NEON sign waring you to head for the exits then I don't know what it will take. If you are already invested in these markets and are determined to remain so, then be prepared to learn a valuable lesson, if you are thinking of investing in the SSE or to a slightly lessor degree the SET then all I can tell you is caveat emptor!

I would go along with Vegas Vic, something not seeming right here. Not surprised it is those 2 companies backing each other up; they are practically the same company. Although I believe Merrill Lynch sold their shares or most of them in Phatra, they are still inextricably linked. But I guess when you have 2 "reputable" names backing up the article it looks better.

[Prakanong]

STOCK MARKET STRONG RALLY CONTINUES

Experts expecting SET bull market

Political stability fuelling momentum

PARISTA YUTHAMANOP The Thai equity market is set to begin a long bull run, says Phatra Securities. Optimism about regional economic growth, led by China, as well as low valuations and the prospect of general elections this year would drive foreign funds into the SET, said Ian Gisbourne, head of equity research for Phatra Securities.

''We see no discount from the political situation, because the flows are so strong. It is actually a bull run for emerging markets, not just the Thai market,'' he said yesterday.

The US investment bank Merrill Lynch expects emerging market equities to remain bullish throughout 2008, although returns in 2007 would be lower than in 2006.

Mr Gisbourne said the SET was expected to post earnings growth of 18.7% in 2008, compared with -1% this year.

Story Here.

Soundman.

Lets see now, last month we had Morgan Stanley hyping the SSE and the SET, now we have Merril along with this Thai brokerage house (and of course their objectivity is beyong reproach I'm sure ), next we will likely see Soloman or Goldman Sachs pumping up these markets in a very public fashion. Perhaps I have been investing too long and have seen situations like this play out before too many times, but if this isn't a flashing NEON sign waring you to head for the exits then I don't know what it will take. If you are already invested in these markets and are determined to remain so, then be prepared to learn a valuable lesson, if you are thinking of investing in the SSE or to a slightly lessor degree the SET then all I can tell you is caveat emptor!

While I do find some of your viewpoints hilarious I think on this point you are credible - tulip bulbs anyone?

I was out last night (it was Harry's though and we know it was Nick Leesons haunt) with a broker from New York - here in Singapore now after Wall Street and Tokyo. Thai wife and lots of property in Thailand - no stocks for some reason ;-)

Edited July 14, 2007 by Prakanong

[Mid]

'4% growth expected next year'

Sat, July 14, 2007 : Last updated 14:31 pm

More than 70 per cent of the management of listed firms believes gross domestic product (GDP) will grow more than 4 per cent next year.

The Thai Listed Companies Association and the Money Channel television network jointly surveyed the management of 110 listed firms about their business prospects in a report entitled "Quarterly Thailand Economic Outlook Survey".

Out of 110 respondents, more than 60 per cent said they believed the economy would grow more than 3.5 per cent this year, and more than 70 per cent believed GDP growth would surpass 4 per cent next year.

Siriporn Chanjindamanee

The Nation

a healthy dose of realism ...........................

[LaoPo]

No tulip bulbs from me.

It's simple.

The Thai stocks are very cheap in comparison to other regional stocks (markets). That's why BIG money from investors [to stock market] is flowing in.

The P/E average on the SET:

"The market's price-to-earnings [P/E] ratio is expected to stand at 13 times in 2007, representing a 25% discount from the regional average of 17.3.

Phatra projects the SET's P/E ratio to dip to 10.9 next year, due in part to a sharp recovery in corporate earnings. The discount from the regional average valuation is expected to widen to 27%. "

''We earlier forecast the SET index to top 1,000 points in the next year, but it could possibly do so this year. The market can even go further in 2008 as the gap in valuations is so large. There is a correction risk, but the market will remain accommodative,'' Mr Gisbourne said.

He said the effect of the baht's appreciation on equities would be slight and would be offset by an increase in investment in 2008.

From the BKK article in the link above.

I said it before: Foreign investors, once they've reached their goals, will move out -of Thai stocks- again and the Baht is likely to drop again.

WHEN...that will be is the question.

I agree that there is quite a bit of promotion from both, said, companies but it's their business and in this case based on facts, read: low P/E's and low stocks on the SET.

LaoPo

[madi]

It is fun to speculate about the future. For sure, some of us will be correct and some of us will be incorrect in the short term predictions we make.

This leads me to me main point.

The Thai economy will go into recession again at some point. We all know that because all economies go into recession at times. The timing is the key isn't it.

I for one look toward China for the next trigger that causes a huge correction in our Thai economy here.

China is a developing economy and is very volatile as such. It will correct and when it does, Japan and America will instantly correct with China. We all know that Europe and the rest of the world will of course follow. What happened here? Thailand has a major recession. Real-estate collapses again. Unemployment goes over 10% again as it did in the late 1990s.

The Thai Baht?

You can guess.

The very best Economists in the world are not good at predicting as to WHEN, the next correction will occur. But it will occur. That is for sure.

I have to laugh a little when I see people entering their prejudice's into the discussion. You can be sure that when the correction does happen that it will not leave any area or nation untouched. This is the world today.

Older and wiser people understand that one wins when one has cash when prices are low.

The idea is to buy low and sell high is it not?

Keep some cash.

[LaoPo]

I have to laugh a little when I see people entering their prejudice's into the discussion.

I agree...

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

ECONOMIC WARNING SIGNS

Thai Silp episode is just the tip of the iceberg

Excerpts:

"The Thai Silp episode should serve as a wake-up call for the government to rethink its competitiveness policies for the coming decades. The company is not the first to have sounded the alarm bells for the sufferings of the textile industry and it won't be the last.

Many years ago, the spectacular downfall of Thai Melon Textile, once dubbed Southeast Asia's largest employer of industrial labour with a workforce of over 2,000, indicated an early symptom of the country's competitiveness malaise.

The warning was there, but the government either did not see it or simply refused to see it. If it had, a disaster could have been averted or its effect could have been mitigated; the glaring case in point is the 1997 crash.

Earlier that year, several economists, alarmed by the rapid depletion of the country's foreign currency reserves, pleaded with the Chavalit Yongchaiyudh government to gradually devalue the baht. But the administration only laughed at the suggestion.

When a factory with 5,000 employees shuts down, the tip of the iceberg is too large to miss. Ignore it at our own peril.

Saturday July 14, 2007 BKK Post.

LaoPo

[Old Man River]

I said it before: Foreign investors, once they've reached their goals, will move out -of Thai stocks- again and the Baht is likely to drop again.

WHEN...that will be is the question.

LaoPo

We agree again. I have made this point several times on TV: the foreign fund inflow into the SET is what is known as hot money. The BOT knows this well, which is why they aren't concerned by these inflows. It will flow out to take profits and come back in at some time later. Fund managers have to feel comfortable that they can take their money out at a moment's notice. If they do, they will bring the funds back in. When they come in, local investors also jump on the same stocks, further bidding the price up. Then fund managers take their money out. Local investors try to guess when this will occur and get out before fund managers withdraw. Many don't, but think they will the next time. And so it goes.....

[Old Man River]

Many years ago, the spectacular downfall of Thai Melon Textile, once dubbed Southeast Asia's largest employer of industrial labour with a workforce of over 2,000, indicated an early symptom of the country's competitiveness malaise.

The warning was there, but the government either did not see it or simply refused to see it. If it had, a disaster could have been averted or its effect could have been mitigated; the glaring case in point is the 1997 crash.

Saturday July 14, 2007 BKK Post.

Blaming the government is crazy. The garment industry is known as a sunset industry in Thailand. It relies on cheap labor and that has not been possible for several years. Since cheap labor vis a vis competing regional countries is no longer possible, this industry has instead been relying on a weak THB, but that is no longer possible. Hence, business failures. A few years ago, Thaksin had an expensive study performed by a known international consultant. One of the conclusions highlighted the demise of these companies. This was public information. It is now happening. Owners of textile companies have refused to listen. Now, what they have been warned against is becoming real so they blame the government. They need mirrors to look into instead.

[LaoPo]

Many years ago, the spectacular downfall of Thai Melon Textile, once dubbed Southeast Asia's largest employer of industrial labour with a workforce of over 2,000, indicated an early symptom of the country's competitiveness malaise.

The warning was there, but the government either did not see it or simply refused to see it. If it had, a disaster could have been averted or its effect could have been mitigated; the glaring case in point is the 1997 crash.

Saturday July 14, 2007 BKK Post.

Blaming the government is crazy. The garment industry is known as a sunset industry in Thailand. It relies on cheap labor and that has not been possible for several years. Since cheap labor vis a vis competing regional countries is no longer possible, this industry has instead been relying on a weak THB, but that is no longer possible. Hence, business failures. A few years ago, Thaksin had an expensive study performed by a known international consultant. One of the conclusions highlighted the demise of these companies. This was public information. It is now happening. Owners of textile companies have refused to listen. Now, what they have been warned against is becoming real so they blame the government. They need mirrors to look into instead.

The article also said:

""The Thai Silp episode should serve as a wake-up call for the government to rethink its competitiveness policies for the coming decades."

But principally, the Thai textile/fashion industry should and could have adapted much earlier to the ever changing regional and global circumstances. Thai labour isn't cheap anymore, for a longer period already, so they -industries- should have changed their own views much, much earlier.

If a factory closes overnight (and speculates on help from outside) it's their own fault, not the governments'.

What the "Government competitiveness policies for the coming decades" could or should have been will remain a secret, I'm afraid: TIT.

WHAT could they have done ? Lower taxes....export subsidies...special incentives.....I don't know.

But, we also shouldn't forget that the owners of these industries are Hi-So families, connected and woven into one another in BKK circles...including the government(s), present, pre- and future ones.

So WHAT happened? Thai Silp, putting 5,000 workers on the street was too powerful; government (via the Garment Association) steps in and helped Thai Silp.... since the government doesn't need unrest and protests right now because they have more important schedules on their list:

1. Draft constitution -referendum in August- and if accepted, with absolute power for the military...

2. Elections, whenever they will be held.

TIT

LaoPo

[Old Man River]

Many years ago, the spectacular downfall of Thai Melon Textile, once dubbed Southeast Asia's largest employer of industrial labour with a workforce of over 2,000, indicated an early symptom of the country's competitiveness malaise.

The warning was there, but the government either did not see it or simply refused to see it. If it had, a disaster could have been averted or its effect could have been mitigated; the glaring case in point is the 1997 crash.

Saturday July 14, 2007 BKK Post.

Blaming the government is crazy. The garment industry is known as a sunset industry in Thailand. It relies on cheap labor and that has not been possible for several years. Since cheap labor vis a vis competing regional countries is no longer possible, this industry has instead been relying on a weak THB, but that is no longer possible. Hence, business failures. A few years ago, Thaksin had an expensive study performed by a known international consultant. One of the conclusions highlighted the demise of these companies. This was public information. It is now happening. Owners of textile companies have refused to listen. Now, what they have been warned against is becoming real so they blame the government. They need mirrors to look into instead.

The article also said:

""The Thai Silp episode should serve as a wake-up call for the government to rethink its competitiveness policies for the coming decades."

But principally, the Thai textile/fashion industry should and could have adapted much earlier to the ever changing regional and global circumstances. Thai labour isn't cheap anymore, for a longer period already, so they -industries- should have changed their own views much, much earlier.

If a factory closes overnight (and speculates on help from outside) it's their own fault, not the governments'.

What the "Government competitiveness policies for the coming decades" could or should have been will remain a secret, I'm afraid: TIT.

WHAT could they have done ? Lower taxes....export subsidies...special incentives.....I don't know.

But, we also shouldn't forget that the owners of these industries are Hi-So families, connected and woven into one another in BKK circles...including the government(s), present, pre- and future ones.

So WHAT happened? Thai Silp, putting 5,000 workers on the street was too powerful; government (via the Garment Association) steps in and helped Thai Silp.... since the government doesn't need unrest and protests right now because they have more important schedules on their list:

1. Draft constitution -referendum in August- and if accepted, with absolute power for the military...

2. Elections, whenever they will be held.

TIT

LaoPo

In Thailand, if you can't compete you blame the government. If you can't blame the government, then you blame foreigners. Right now we are at the blaming the government stage.

BTW, the issue here is not who the owners are, but rather that the current government is still trying to justify itself, and having 5,000 people lose their jobs doesn't help this. When Thai Melon failed it didn't matter who the owners were and it didn't matter how many were out of work. Now it matters.

[midas]

It is fun to speculate about the future. For sure, some of us will be correct and some of us will be incorrect in the short term predictions we make.

This leads me to me main point.

The Thai economy will go into recession again at some point. We all know that because all economies go into recession at times. The timing is the key isn't it.

I for one look toward China for the next trigger that causes a huge correction in our Thai economy here.

China is a developing economy and is very volatile as such. It will correct and when it does, Japan and America will instantly correct with China. We all know that Europe and the rest of the world will of course follow. What happened here? Thailand has a major recession. Real-estate collapses again. Unemployment goes over 10% again as it did in the late 1990s.

The Thai Baht?

You can guess.

The very best Economists in the world are not good at predicting as to WHEN, the next correction will occur. But it will occur. That is for sure.

I have to laugh a little when I see people entering their prejudice's into the discussion. You can be sure that when the correction does happen that it will not leave any area or nation untouched. This is the world today.

Older and wiser people understand that one wins when one has cash when prices are low.

The idea is to buy low and sell high is it not?

Keep some cash.

I think events in Iran could lead to something serious happening worldwide before any predicted economic correction ?

Joe Lieberman ( a Democrat mind you ! ) successfully persuaded the US Senate only last week to issue a formal warning to

Iran not to interfere in Iraq and failure to listen to this warning will results in " selective

attacks " on about 3 specific locations within Iran. So not a huge invasion but still bad enough.

It's definitely coming one way or another.............................................

My point is this could inevitably lead to severe disruptions to world oil supply and that will

affect not just Thailand but everyone...........

[Mid]

Low-tech investment out but hi-tech stays

Saturday 14 July 2007 06:20:26 PM (GMT+7:00)

Deputy Industry Minister Piyabutr Cholvijan confirmed that labour-intensive industrial operations have begun to relocate out of Thailand whereas the high-technology industry sector remains an investment magnet.

Mr. Piyabutr said the appreciation of baht is probably one of the factors, but investors normally give more weight in their decisions to infrastructure concerns including labour supply, as well as government policy.

MCOT Public Company Limited.

Edited July 14, 2007 by Mid

[Mid]

World Bank may revise Thai economic forecast in October

Saturday 14 July 2007 06:27:58 PM (GMT+7:00)

The World Bank will revise its economic growth forecast for this year for Thailand in October, taking into account factors such as political situation, exchange and energy prices.

If all bode well, especially if general election is held within this year, the Thai economy could grow higher than the 4.3 per cent forecast by the Bank earlier this year, said the Bank’s economist for Thailand Kirida Bhaopichitr.

MCOT Public Company Limited

[VegasVic]

It is fun to speculate about the future. For sure, some of us will be correct and some of us will be incorrect in the short term predictions we make.

This leads me to me main point.

The Thai economy will go into recession again at some point. We all know that because all economies go into recession at times. The timing is the key isn't it.

I for one look toward China for the next trigger that causes a huge correction in our Thai economy here.

China is a developing economy and is very volatile as such. It will correct and when it does, Japan and America will instantly correct with China. We all know that Europe and the rest of the world will of course follow. What happened here? Thailand has a major recession. Real-estate collapses again. Unemployment goes over 10% again as it did in the late 1990s.

The Thai Baht?

You can guess.

The very best Economists in the world are not good at predicting as to WHEN, the next correction will occur. But it will occur. That is for sure.

I have to laugh a little when I see people entering their prejudice's into the discussion. You can be sure that when the correction does happen that it will not leave any area or nation untouched. This is the world today.

Older and wiser people understand that one wins when one has cash when prices are low.

The idea is to buy low and sell high is it not?

Keep some cash.

Great post! Now lets see what could possibly lead Thailand (and the SET) into a recession. Perhaps a military takeover of the government, or maybe civil unrest in the form of a muslim insurgency, or will it be a rapidly appreciating currency that will lead to layoffs within the country and an the export of jobs that would normally stay in Thailand, or something simple like a reduction in exports and tourisim, or perhaps a plumeting consumer confidence and along with it plumeting consumer spending, alas these things aren't really likely to happen are they? Then there is the 800lb. gorilla in the room, the bubble in the chinese stock market! Thats right I forgot, as Lao Po will tell anyone who will listen (in about every third post on many forums like this one) there is no problem in chinese market valuations and no need to worry about a crash because "things are different this time around". Well its good to see a few posters out there who have been around the block a few times before are not buying Lao Po's lolipops and roses story. Taking profits off the table is a very good idea right now weather you are in Thailand, China, India, Europe or the U.S., as cash will be king in the not too distant future!