The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[LaoPo]

Thats right I forgot, as Lao Po will tell anyone who will listen (in about every third post on many forums like this one) there is no problem in chinese market valuations and no need to worry about a crash because "things are different this time around".

I'm most interested where you read posts (by me) where I wrote the things, as you describe.

Maybe you should read a little better.

One question:

If you post, PLEASE, do so with sentences and spaces. Your continuous writing, without stopping is difficult to read...

LaoPo

[midas]

Thats right I forgot, as Lao Po will tell anyone who will listen (in about every third post on many forums like this one) there is no problem in chinese market valuations and no need to worry about a crash because "things are different this time around". Well its good to see a few posters out there who have been around the block a few times before are not buying Lao Po's lolipops and roses story. Taking profits off the table is a very good idea right now weather you are in Thailand, China, India, Europe or the U.S., as cash will be king in the not too distant future!

Sir, with great respect i think this is a case of " mistaken identity " or a serious

misinterpretation of postings by LaoPo ! lolipops and roses LaoPo certainly isnt !

[Mid]

Premier orders watch on baht

Currency surges to Bt33.30 to the dollar as job worries surface

Published on July 14, 2007

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont has asked the Finance Ministry and Bank of Thailand to report baht activity every Friday, while Tuesday's Cabinet meeting will discuss ways to handle the possible closure of export firms as a result of the strong currency.

Garment-exporter Thai Silp South East Asia Import Export's brief closure this week has prompted concern about the impact of the baht on industry.

On Monday, the Commerce and Industry ministries meet with private companies to sound out measures needed for survival. The government is worried about mass job losses.

nationmultimedia.com

[VegasVic]

Thats right I forgot, as Lao Po will tell anyone who will listen (in about every third post on many forums like this one) there is no problem in chinese market valuations and no need to worry about a crash because "things are different this time around". Well its good to see a few posters out there who have been around the block a few times before are not buying Lao Po's lolipops and roses story. Taking profits off the table is a very good idea right now weather you are in Thailand, China, India, Europe or the U.S., as cash will be king in the not too distant future!

Sir, with great respect i think this is a case of " mistaken identity " or a serious

misinterpretation of postings by LaoPo ! lolipops and roses LaoPo certainly isnt !

Sir, with an equal ammount of great respect to you, I would suggest that there is indeed no case of "mistaken identity" here at all when it comes to Lao Po's vision(or lack there of) of the real situation in chinese equity markets. I have brought forth the real and quite disturbing underlying fundamentals of the excessive bubble that is currently happening in the chinese mainland equity markets, and despite leading chinese economists(not to mention leading economists all around the globe) realizing the excessive valuations and their counterparts in the government regularly over the last 6 months enacting policies and market regulations to cool things off, the market still surges forward. Lao Po either has a large vested interest or is way too close to the action in China to see what the chinese economists see and the rest of the world sees as a disaster waiting to happen. Each and every time that I explain the situation in chinese equities and the possible fallout when the bubble bursts, Lao Po comes back with the same mantra every time, that because China is such a large country it can sustain the overblown valuations because it will continue growing at such a fast rate that the current PE's don't really matter and that the market will have its corrections but will continue up going forward. History, simple economics, common sense and the fact that China will not continue to grow at anything close to what the PE valuations currently show for any number of reasons that those economists both inside and outside of China have expounded on and I have put forth here are routinely ignored by Lao Po. If this tunnel vision on the situation in China is not "lolipops and roses" then I don't know what is. Time will tell who is correct(economists throughout the globe or Lao Po), but if I am right we will not have to wait much longer to find out the answer. I would expect that more major brokerage firms will be coming forward shorly to publically pump the chinese equity markets up to even higher levels, this is because they and their clients are already invested, and these public proclamations aid in the continuation of the bubble as they slowly exit the large positions that they have been in for some time now. This type of "hyping the market" always occurs before the crash and in the last month we have seen Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch make this very public stance and in the near future we will likely see Soloman Bros., Golman Sachs and others doing the same type of hyping. For those out there invested in chinese equities, I hope you have a good exit program, for those thinking about doing so I would suggest you do some reading about prior bubbles in markets around the world(and the crashes that ensued) and you will find a remarkable resemblence to what is occuring in China today.

[chinthee]

Vegas, I agree with you man, but really, you do need to put your thoughts in paragraphs dude.

[VegasVic]

Vegas, I agree with you man, but really, you do need to put your thoughts in paragraphs dude.

I hear you Bro! The distinctive format of my posts is just that, distictive, and that is why I continue to post in this fashion, also to be perfectly honest it seems to tweak some of my detractors a little and that is of course a nice side benefit! Thanks for the suggestion though.

[bkkandrew]

Vegas, I agree with you man, but really, you do need to put your thoughts in paragraphs dude.

I wish I knew if I agreed with him or not, as his lack of paragraphs makes me steer clear as it would induce a headache!

[LaoPo]

Thats right I forgot, as Lao Po will tell anyone who will listen (in about every third post on many forums like this one) there is no problem in chinese market valuations and no need to worry about a crash because "things are different this time around". Well its good to see a few posters out there who have been around the block a few times before are not buying Lao Po's lolipops and roses story. Taking profits off the table is a very good idea right now weather you are in Thailand, China, India, Europe or the U.S., as cash will be king in the not too distant future!

Sir, with great respect i think this is a case of " mistaken identity " or a serious

misinterpretation of postings by LaoPo ! lolipops and roses LaoPo certainly isnt !

Sir, with an equal ammount of great respect to you, I would suggest that there is indeed no case of "mistaken identity" here at all when it comes to Lao Po's vision(or lack there of) of the real situation in chinese equity markets. I have brought forth the real and quite disturbing underlying fundamentals of the excessive bubble that is currently happening in the chinese mainland equity markets, and despite leading chinese economists(not to mention leading economists all around the globe) realizing the excessive valuations and their counterparts in the government regularly over the last 6 months enacting policies and market regulations to cool things off, the market still surges forward. Lao Po either has a large vested interest or is way too close to the action in China to see what the chinese economists see and the rest of the world sees as a disaster waiting to happen. Each and every time that I explain the situation in chinese equities and the possible fallout when the bubble bursts, Lao Po comes back with the same mantra every time, that because China is such a large country it can sustain the overblown valuations because it will continue growing at such a fast rate that the current PE's don't really matter and that the market will have its corrections but will continue up going forward. History, simple economics, common sense and the fact that China will not continue to grow at anything close to what the PE valuations currently show for any number of reasons that those economists both inside and outside of China have expounded on and I have put forth here are routinely ignored by Lao Po. If this tunnel vision on the situation in China is not "lolipops and roses" then I don't know what is. Time will tell who is correct(economists throughout the globe or Lao Po), but if I am right we will not have to wait much longer to find out the answer. I would expect that more major brokerage firms will be coming forward shorly to publically pump the chinese equity markets up to even higher levels, this is because they and their clients are already invested, and these public proclamations aid in the continuation of the bubble as they slowly exit the large positions that they have been in for some time now. This type of "hyping the market" always occurs before the crash and in the last month we have seen Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch make this very public stance and in the near future we will likely see Soloman Bros., Golman Sachs and others doing the same type of hyping. For those out there invested in chinese equities, I hope you have a good exit program, for those thinking about doing so I would suggest you do some reading about prior bubbles in markets around the world(and the crashes that ensued) and you will find a remarkable resemblence to what is occuring in China today.

VegasVic, you make me so tired...

1. Why didn't you reply to my post #1081 instead answering a later poster?

2. You really should read my posts better instead accusing me of things I never said about the overheated Chinese economy.

3. If you don't know how it works: Go to my (LaoPo) profile and click on my posts; you're able to read them all. I have no intention of repeating all of them regarding my views on the Thai-, World- and Chinese economy.

4. You might even be surprised.

5. You show a lack of understanding by not accepting the comments of various posters about your continuous writing, without paragraphs and separate sentences. You're quite stubburn about it.

Time will tell if there will be posters wanting to reply to your views in the future.

My appetite to do so is almost zero.

Up to you.

LaoPo

[VegasVic]

Thats right I forgot, as Lao Po will tell anyone who will listen (in about every third post on many forums like this one) there is no problem in chinese market valuations and no need to worry about a crash because "things are different this time around". Well its good to see a few posters out there who have been around the block a few times before are not buying Lao Po's lolipops and roses story. Taking profits off the table is a very good idea right now weather you are in Thailand, China, India, Europe or the U.S., as cash will be king in the not too distant future!

Sir, with great respect i think this is a case of " mistaken identity " or a serious

misinterpretation of postings by LaoPo ! lolipops and roses LaoPo certainly isnt !

Sir, with an equal ammount of great respect to you, I would suggest that there is indeed no case of "mistaken identity" here at all when it comes to Lao Po's vision(or lack there of) of the real situation in chinese equity markets. I have brought forth the real and quite disturbing underlying fundamentals of the excessive bubble that is currently happening in the chinese mainland equity markets, and despite leading chinese economists(not to mention leading economists all around the globe) realizing the excessive valuations and their counterparts in the government regularly over the last 6 months enacting policies and market regulations to cool things off, the market still surges forward. Lao Po either has a large vested interest or is way too close to the action in China to see what the chinese economists see and the rest of the world sees as a disaster waiting to happen. Each and every time that I explain the situation in chinese equities and the possible fallout when the bubble bursts, Lao Po comes back with the same mantra every time, that because China is such a large country it can sustain the overblown valuations because it will continue growing at such a fast rate that the current PE's don't really matter and that the market will have its corrections but will continue up going forward. History, simple economics, common sense and the fact that China will not continue to grow at anything close to what the PE valuations currently show for any number of reasons that those economists both inside and outside of China have expounded on and I have put forth here are routinely ignored by Lao Po. If this tunnel vision on the situation in China is not "lolipops and roses" then I don't know what is. Time will tell who is correct(economists throughout the globe or Lao Po), but if I am right we will not have to wait much longer to find out the answer. I would expect that more major brokerage firms will be coming forward shorly to publically pump the chinese equity markets up to even higher levels, this is because they and their clients are already invested, and these public proclamations aid in the continuation of the bubble as they slowly exit the large positions that they have been in for some time now. This type of "hyping the market" always occurs before the crash and in the last month we have seen Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch make this very public stance and in the near future we will likely see Soloman Bros., Golman Sachs and others doing the same type of hyping. For those out there invested in chinese equities, I hope you have a good exit program, for those thinking about doing so I would suggest you do some reading about prior bubbles in markets around the world(and the crashes that ensued) and you will find a remarkable resemblence to what is occuring in China today.

VegasVic, you make me so tired...

1. Why didn't you reply to my post #1081 instead answering a later poster?

2. You really should read my posts better instead accusing me of things I never said about the overheated Chinese economy.

3. If you don't know how it works: Go to my (LaoPo) profile and click on my posts; you're able to read them all. I have no intention of repeating all of them regarding my views on the Thai-, World- and Chinese economy.

4. You might even be surprised.

5. You show a lack of understanding by not accepting the comments of various posters about your continuous writing, without paragraphs and separate sentences. You're quite stubburn about it.

Time will tell if there will be posters wanting to reply to your views in the future.

My appetite to do so is almost zero.

Up to you.

LaoPo

I am very well aware of your views on the chinese markets, as you have responded directly to my posts on the coming crash in chinese equities on many occasions and if you take the time to go back and view your own replies (you are the one who might be surprised) then you will see that I have merely restated what you have said in the past. Indeed time will, but I think that most people out there will take content over syntax any day!

[Robski]

Still the figures don't add up or are incorrect.

The website from phatradirect.com states (see website above):

Commercial Car Sales down -14,4% for Year-to-Date 2007

whilst:

""Private Car sales are down -13.9% same period"

So: I'm still puzzled but will try to sleep comfortably tonight...

LaoPo

I don't know wether you got your answer, it's hard to keep up with this thread,

but car sales are always split between company and private sales due to the volume and price differentials.

Even these are not actually outright sales but more usually lease plans, company lease plans and private lease plans.

Another possibility though is that goods carrying vehicles are classed as commercial vehicles.

Edited July 15, 2007 by Robski

[LaoPo]

I am very well aware of your views on the chinese markets...

You're not [aware], since you can't read or write properly, but that's not my problem; it's yours.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Still the figures don't add up or are incorrect.

The website from phatradirect.com states (see website above):

Commercial Car Sales down -14,4% for Year-to-Date 2007

whilst:

""Private Car sales are down -13.9% same period"

So: I'm still puzzled but will try to sleep comfortably tonight...

LaoPo

I don't know wether you got your answer, it's hard to keep up with this thread,

but car sales are always split between company and private sales due to the volume and price differentials.

Even these are not actually outright sales but more usually lease plans, company lease plans and private lease plans.

Another possibility though is that goods carrying vehicles are classed as commercial vehicles.

I know; my 'puzzlement' had more to do with another sentence in that message, NOT the difference in %'s of 'vehicle', commercial and/or private cars:

"Vehicle sales in Thailand fell 4.2% year-on-year in June, bringing year-to-date sales down by 12.6%, Thomson Financial has reported, citing data provided by Toyota Thailand, which compiles statistics for the industry. A total of 53,222 vehicles were ...(story ends here; no further access)"

LaoPo

Edited July 15, 2007 by LaoPo

[SNGLIFE]

We'll see 1997 all over again...

...should there be a sudden catalyst big enough to really shake things up. Like say, if the passage of time should catch up with a certain central figure. It's going to happen eventually. Just food for thought...someone else can clean the dishes...

[Naam]

We'll see 1997 all over again...

and the sky is falling

[Prakanong]

I am very well aware of your views on the chinese markets...

You're not [aware], since you can't read or write properly, but that's not my problem; it's yours.

LaoPo

And as you say most will not read his posts due to the writing and thus his words correct or not are wated.

I was in Harrys for a session on Saturday with some traders ie heads of operations Asia etc and the like for major banks and they had some interesting views on Thailand and China - Thailand did raise some guffaw's

[VegasVic]

I am very well aware of your views on the chinese markets...

You're not [aware], since you can't read or write properly, but that's not my problem; it's yours.

LaoPo

And as you say most will not read his posts due to the writing and thus his words correct or not are wated.

I was in Harrys for a session on Saturday with some traders ie heads of operations Asia etc and the like for major banks and they had some interesting views on Thailand and China - Thailand did raise some guffaw's

I don't get it, is the word "aware" somehow not in your vocabulary? If so I will be glad to educate you as to its meaning. Aware- to have knowledge of or be cognizant of. Now that you guys are stooping to correcting typos and syntax, I will assume that you finally realize that the chinese equity markets are indeed poised for a crash and that any further appreciation in the baht will be very harmful to the Thai economy. By the way Prakanong, I could point out the obvious error in this post of yours but I don't kick a man while he is down.

[Prakanong]

I am very well aware of your views on the chinese markets...

You're not [aware], since you can't read or write properly, but that's not my problem; it's yours.

LaoPo

And as you say most will not read his posts due to the writing and thus his words correct or not are wated.

I was in Harrys for a session on Saturday with some traders ie heads of operations Asia etc and the like for major banks and they had some interesting views on Thailand and China - Thailand did raise some guffaw's

I don't get it, is the word "aware" somehow not in your vocabulary? If so I will be glad to educate you as to its meaning. Aware- to have knowledge of or be cognizant of. Now that you guys are stooping to correcting typos and syntax, I will assume that you finally realize that the chinese equity markets are indeed poised for a crash and that any further appreciation in the baht will be very harmful to the Thai economy. By the way Prakanong, I could point out the obvious error in this post of yours but I don't kick a man while he is down.

You are amusing my dear chap.

Were you a car salesman in a previous life before becomg the sage of vegas?

[VegasVic]

I am very well aware of your views on the chinese markets...

You're not [aware], since you can't read or write properly, but that's not my problem; it's yours.

LaoPo

And as you say most will not read his posts due to the writing and thus his words correct or not are wated.

I was in Harrys for a session on Saturday with some traders ie heads of operations Asia etc and the like for major banks and they had some interesting views on Thailand and China - Thailand did raise some guffaw's

I don't get it, is the word "aware" somehow not in your vocabulary? If so I will be glad to educate you as to its meaning. Aware- to have knowledge of or be cognizant of. Now that you guys are stooping to correcting typos and syntax, I will assume that you finally realize that the chinese equity markets are indeed poised for a crash and that any further appreciation in the baht will be very harmful to the Thai economy. By the way Prakanong, I could point out the obvious error in this post of yours but I don't kick a man while he is down.

You are amusing my dear chap.

Were you a car salesman in a previous life before becomg the sage of vegas?

No, but I did do some work selling junk bonds for a guy named Milken back in the 80's to raise the money for the Mirage Casino.

[Prakanong]

I am very well aware of your views on the chinese markets...

You're not [aware], since you can't read or write properly, but that's not my problem; it's yours.

LaoPo

And as you say most will not read his posts due to the writing and thus his words correct or not are wated.

I was in Harrys for a session on Saturday with some traders ie heads of operations Asia etc and the like for major banks and they had some interesting views on Thailand and China - Thailand did raise some guffaw's

I don't get it, is the word "aware" somehow not in your vocabulary? If so I will be glad to educate you as to its meaning. Aware- to have knowledge of or be cognizant of. Now that you guys are stooping to correcting typos and syntax, I will assume that you finally realize that the chinese equity markets are indeed poised for a crash and that any further appreciation in the baht will be very harmful to the Thai economy. By the way Prakanong, I could point out the obvious error in this post of yours but I don't kick a man while he is down.

You are amusing my dear chap.

Were you a car salesman in a previous life before becomg the sage of vegas?

No, but I did do some work selling junk bonds for a guy named Milken back in the 80's to raise the money for the Mirage Casino.

Someone told us all about how he trades and the different types of trader there are at his leaving do on Saturday now but its al a bit blank - its things like this I should remember!

He is an oil futures trader and he seemed to know his stuff pretty well - his company must value him as he had a 1 year gardening leave built into his contract.

[Loom]

I haven't read all this thread but have seen the last few pages and really wonder why the strong currency is being equated with a poor economy? I would ordinarily recommend doing the opposite of any recommendation made by Merrill. But excepting a bit of a squeeze on exporter earnings(including ag production) aren't the capital inflows for the stock market anticipating strong earnings (strong underlying economic fundamentals) and stock appreciation? Currencies are strong everywhere. It's not as if the baht is the only strong currency and getting out of whack.

As for the SET's gains in recent months. They are almost insignificant compared to gains in other regional markets. Bubble elsewhere but I don't see anything close to it in Thailand. Maybe the US will be the first domino to fall. Then everyone is in trouble.

[Mid]

Government urged to hasten help for exporters

Monday 16 July 2007 02:29:17 PM (GMT+7:00)

BANGKOK, July 16 (TNA) – The government should accelerate finding measures to help exporters affected by the baht surge since exports are the sole engine left to drive the country's economy, according to former finance minister Somkid Jatusripitak.

Commenting on the continuing baht appreciation, he said key state financial institutions such as the Bank of Thailand (BoT) and the Export and Import Bank of Thailand (EXIM) should find measures to reduce financial costs of exporters to ensure they could go ahead with business operations.

MCOT Public Company Limited.

since exports are the sole engine left to drive the country's economy

[soundman]

Government urged to hasten help for exporters

Monday 16 July 2007 02:29:17 PM (GMT+7:00)

BANGKOK, July 16 (TNA) – The government should accelerate finding measures to help exporters affected by the baht surge since exports are the sole engine left to drive the country's economy, according to former finance minister Somkid Jatusripitak.

Commenting on the continuing baht appreciation, he said key state financial institutions such as the Bank of Thailand (BoT) and the Export and Import Bank of Thailand (EXIM) should find measures to reduce financial costs of exporters to ensure they could go ahead with business operations.

MCOT Public Company Limited.

since exports are the sole engine left to drive the country's economy

How about using all those billions of Baht ensnared by the 4 Baht per litre petrol fund to subsidise exporters like the Chinese do.....

[Mid]

JD's got the answer here mate .........................

[Mid]

and right on time , along comes .............

Department to wealthy: 'Buy Thai'

Sun, July 15, 2007 : Last updated 21:53 pm

High-end foreign goods increasingly seen as a threat to the economy in the prevailing foreign-exchange climate

The Foreign Trade Department yesterday moved to counter rising luxury imports, caused by the stronger baht, by kicking off a campaign to promote locally made goods.

Petchanet Pratruangkrai

The Nation

Edited July 16, 2007 by Mid

[LaoPo]

The SET is down 2.06%

The SET 100 is down 4.11%

Most other Far Eastern markets down as well.

Today, Monday July16, 2007

LaoPo

[Mid]

Loan rules tighten for exporters

Forex rate hurting car and parts firms

Published on July 17, 2007

Thai textile and garment exporters, whose baht-denominated income is being steadily eroded by the strengthening baht, are facing another problem: financial institutions have toughened their attitude towards extension of new credit, out of concern for borrowers' declining income.

Thai Garment Manufacturers' Association secretary-general Vallop Vitanakorn said that previously, exporters obtained loans simply by showing sales orders to the bank.

Chalida Ekvitthayavechnukul,

Diew Khongsin

The Nation

[bingobongo]

Thailand's Krung Thai Bank (KTB): Expecting terrible 2Q net earnings

KTB is expected to report terrible 2Q07 net profits of just Bt825m, plummeting 78% YoY and 82% QoQ.

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2007/07/09/2769964.htm

[Carmine6]

Thailand's Krung Thai Bank (KTB): Expecting terrible 2Q net earnings

KTB is expected to report terrible 2Q07 net profits of just Bt825m, plummeting 78% YoY and 82% QoQ.

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2007/07/09/2769964.htm

Here's a key part of that press release:

- Expecting huge provisions. Provisions are expected to come in at Bt5.0bn on a consolidated basis, which is much higher than the Bt1.9bn in 2Q06 and the Bt1.1bn posted last quarter. This was the main cause of the huge drop in the bottom line. The reason behind our huge provision forecast is because we expect to see a sharp increase in NPLs (both new and re-entry).

NPL = Non-performing loan

[LaoPo]

Thailand's Krung Thai Bank (KTB): Expecting terrible 2Q net earnings

KTB is expected to report terrible 2Q07 net profits of just Bt825m, plummeting 78% YoY and 82% QoQ.

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2007/07/09/2769964.htm

Here's a key part of that press release:

- Expecting huge provisions. Provisions are expected to come in at Bt5.0bn on a consolidated basis, which is much higher than the Bt1.9bn in 2Q06 and the Bt1.1bn posted last quarter. This was the main cause of the huge drop in the bottom line. The reason behind our huge provision forecast is because we expect to see a sharp increase in NPLs (both new and re-entry).

NPL = Non-performing loan

Ouch...

LaoPo

[Steely Dan]

Thailand's Krung Thai Bank (KTB): Expecting terrible 2Q net earnings

KTB is expected to report terrible 2Q07 net profits of just Bt825m, plummeting 78% YoY and 82% QoQ.

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2007/07/09/2769964.htm

Here's a key part of that press release:

- Expecting huge provisions. Provisions are expected to come in at Bt5.0bn on a consolidated basis, which is much higher than the Bt1.9bn in 2Q06 and the Bt1.1bn posted last quarter. This was the main cause of the huge drop in the bottom line. The reason behind our huge provision forecast is because we expect to see a sharp increase in NPLs (both new and re-entry).

NPL = Non-performing loan

Ouch...

LaoPo

This news follows on the heels of the Thai Military Bank not making a scheduled interest payment. It seems to me that an atmosphere of fear is spreading throughout the banking industry. Question is IF you had to keep significant funds in Thailand what Bank is rated the most able to service debt - anyone know how Moody's or other agencies rate the Thai banks relative to one another?