The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[rafval]

we all can talk and complain until we are blue in the face but the true fact is the people who can do some thing about will not because that would mean they were wrong so it better to wreck a country then admit your wrong six months ago I posted my opinion on what happening with the thai baht I found out I was right they were buying up USD to strenthen the thai baht but unfortunatly it blew up in there face now what is there next step

I dont think thats quite true, afterall, didnt they insist they werent going to have a coup, they didnt seem to loose face when they did it, the problem is that their fortune teller has no idea what to advise them so they are a little lost at the moment

[LaoPo]

Shell Thailand earmarks $34 million to upgrade service stations

By Bangkok Bureau

Last Update: 6:37 AM ET Jul 20, 2007

BANGKOK (MarketWatch) -- A Thai unit of Royal Dutch Shell plans to renovate its 570 retail gasoline service stations over the next three years at a cost of up to THB1.14 billion ($34 million).

The upgrade aims to boost sales and raise market share to 18% in two years from the current 16.2%, said Simon Hirst, general manager for retail sales and operations at Shell Company of Thailand Ltd.

The company will initially renovate 50 stations in the second half of this year, at a cost of over THB100 million, Hirst told reporters Friday.

During January to May, Shell's sales of gasoline and diesel products in Thailand totaled 1.1 billion liters, down 3% from a year earlier.

The fall in sales was in line with a decline in retail gasoline consumption in Thailand as rising oil prices have curbed demand.

During the first five months of this year, national consumption of gasoline and diesel totaled 6.753 million liters, down 8.9% from a year earlier.

The last sentence: that's quite substantial, a decline of 8.9%; in fact it's HUGE.

LaoPo

[highdiver]

hello highdiver, you linger like a bad stink.......but back to the news.....

Rising baht bites the hands that feed exports

http://www.euro2day.gr/articlesfna/39207016/

so it was a soft point that cond o thing...

so now you resort to name calling .... how mature and sofiticated..

sorry mate it seems that that condo is out of your abilities as every day goes by.

it realy does not matter how many negetive news you dig that condo seems to be growing away all the time.

[highdiver]

nothing to see here, move along........addidas cuts orders and soon nike will follow

Concern other firms also at risk

Garment-maker to shut next month

Fears of rising unemployment were heightened when Rama Shoes Industry, an original-equipment manufacturer of Nike shoes, suffered a cut in orders. Rama Shoes and its six parts manufacturers employ a total of 6,985 staff, said Labour Minister Apai Chandanachulaka. Rama Shoes alone has more than 4,000 workers.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/07/20...ss_30041598.php

I could be wrong but I think I might have read in Straits Times yesterday Nike are expanding in Indonesia and maybe Vietnam - anyone have the report?

This is what I continually point to - Thailand is losing against others in the region and really need to take heed - comparitive and competative advantage anyone?

what you "continually point to" is that Thailand should remain a "cheap labour" country producing at low cost for the benfefit of the westerners who want to have cheap production.

As i pointed out to you before when the cheap labour ends in neigbouring countries and in Asia they will probebly move to africa or afganistan. producres are allways looking out for cheap labour.

are you sugesting that thailand needs to remain that way.

its time for thais to move on to better and higer industries. thailand should aim to improve should it not.?

with the sure rise in education and new higer technology thailand will have a better advanteage in the future competing with more developed countries.

Oh the Harvard MBA chimes in!

it actually Corenell. where did you graduate from?

You really just do not get it do you - when do I advocate Thailand being a low cost low labour capital country in order to compete?

when your advise is for thailand to compete with less developed countries.

Please point to this rise in human capital through education you see happening plus the rise of the hi tech high value industry in Thailand - it would be grat to see but the fact is its not happening and Thailand will fall further behind the likes of Singapore and Malaysia and will be overtaken by the likes of Vietnam.

i think you will find the answer in another thread where you claimed thailand does not have reserch facilities and bio facilities.

I advise you again that when you doi visit thailand dont just visit the cheap tailors but so go out to the universities and see for your self that thailand is catching up big time.

I know it must be nice and comfy for you over there in Sinagapore in your position in drug company and maybe diffcult to know whats going on when you are not even in thailand... so try and come over for longer then a few days and maybe you will learn about the progress in thailand.

Its you who likes them cheap mate and wish the rural Thai's to remain so!

no my darling ... i personaly donated over 4 million baht to a a school last year..i am involved in intoducing new farming tech to farmers and I invested in BOI educational technical facilities. how much did you do for thailand?

or sitting in singapore in your nice apprtment that you are so proud you got for less then the market price and bitching about thailand the best you can do???

Your ramblings and lack of wider view make you out a joke on this thread - stay in your cocoon island boi

at least my view comes from living as a resident on the way to citizen,investing and enjoying Thailand.

unlike those who dont even live here and whine and bitch all the time.

I am also running my own business and i only have to answer to myself, on the contrary to some who are employed and live month by month not knowing what it realy feels like to be the owner.

its realy easy to give advice when you are not the one taking the risks. .

[midas]

I am also running my own business and i only have to answer to myself, on the contrary to some who are employed and live month by month not knowing what it realy feels like to be the owner.

its realy easy to give advice when you are not the one taking the risks. .

having only 49 % would not feel to me like being the owner risk taker for the benefit of others perhaps yes !

[Mid]

Raft of ideas to cool local unit

Govt currency measures find general approval and early success

Published on July 21, 2007

snip

Tan Kong Khoon, president and chief executive officer of the Bank of Ayudhya, said three weeks ago it had set up a special team to visit export borrowers in low-margin industries.

He said export clients now accounted for 20 per cent of the bank's lending portfolio. The bank is now visiting these clients weekly to better observe their situations.

snip

nationmultimedia.com

how very considerate of them .

Edited July 20, 2007 by Mid

[PattayaAddict]

"The Thai Government want more foreign investment to be able to survive ?

I am white ,known as a farang ,because of this i cant even buy a ceiling with 4 walls and now you state that the foreigners must invest in Thailand ?

Yeah right ..whatever

PS :This is serious rubish that there is a crisis ,trust me im a broker and i can assure you that this is NOT the case -has not been the case for a good 2 years even wth the coup so ...

[LaoPo]

Raft of ideas to cool local unit

Govt currency measures find general approval and early success

Published on July 21, 2007

snip

Tan Kong Khoon, president and chief executive officer of the Bank of Ayudhya, said three weeks ago it had set up a special team to visit export borrowers in low-margin industries.

He said export clients now accounted for 20 per cent of the bank's lending portfolio. The bank is now visiting these clients weekly to better observe their situations.

snip

nationmultimedia.com

how very considerate of them .

It is...

Have you ever seen bank officers visiting their clients in the West? Not where I'm from at least.

But nice for the officers to step away from their desks a bit.....right ?

LaoPo

[Bill97]

Yes but if 20% of their loan portfolio is at risk, they may and should be very concerned with their own financial health.

[Bryan in Isaan]

<clip>

Have you ever seen bank officers visiting their clients in the West? Not where I'm from at least.

But nice for the officers to step away from their desks a bit.....right ?

LaoPo

The very ASSISTANT MANAGER of our bank took time out of her busy schedule to come to our village and visit us.

She was trying to sell us life insurance.

Edited July 21, 2007 by Bryan in Isaan

[midas]

"The Thai Government want more foreign investment to be able to survive ?

I am white ,known as a farang ,because of this i cant even buy a ceiling with 4 walls and now you state that the foreigners must invest in Thailand ?

Yeah right ..whatever

PS :This is serious rubish that there is a crisis ,trust me im a broker and i can assure you that this is NOT the case -has not been the case for a good 2 years even wth the coup so ...

Hey guys !!! Panic over - it's official because " the broker " has said there is no crisis

[bingobongo]

"The Thai Government want more foreign investment to be able to survive ?

I am white ,known as a farang ,because of this i cant even buy a ceiling with 4 walls and now you state that the foreigners must invest in Thailand ?

Yeah right ..whatever

PS :This is serious rubish that there is a crisis ,trust me im a broker and i can assure you that this is NOT the case -has not been the case for a good 2 years even wth the coup so ...

Hey guys !!! Panic over - it's official because " the broker " has said there is no crisis

exactly, trust investment advice from a guy who makes his living on commission

Edited July 21, 2007 by bingobongo

[Mid]

Thai Silp staff check company assets

(BangkokPost.com) - Representatives of workers at the debt-plagued Thai Silp Co began checking the remaining products at its factory Saturday morning to see what they can sell in order to raise money to pay for compensation for workers after owners decided to shut down the company early next month.

snip

On Thursday, owner Pipan Oon-opas requested the workers to accept half their wages in July, saying the company had only nine million baht but owed 1.4 billion baht to its debtors.

The Post Publishing Public Co

[Edonista]

the brazilan real has high interest rates. but you should be very careful about investing there. they had a currency devaluation back in 1999. I guess for a short term it would be ok. but my guess is they will have another valuation sometime again soon. they still haven't fixed their problem with the debt.

Nick,

you have to update your information. Brazil has no more debt problems. the currency devaluation in 1999 was an absolute must because the 1:1 BRL/USD was impossible to sustain and was introduced only to curb rampant inflation. the country is on the verge of being rated "investment grade", if not in 2007 then in 2008. Brazils sovereign bond debt in USD yields less than 6% (short term less than 5%!) and in €UR just a tad above 5%. i rode the brazilian Real all the way from 4.05 to 2.0235 (vs. USD) but decided last week to get out, cashing in 100% exchange rate profit plus an average of 18% interest per annum.

perhaps it was a mistake as BRL/USD traded friday close at 1.9590!

graph BRL/USD:

For those curious about BRL, it is 1.86 to the $ now

[LaoPo]

education is important and valuable, but not the ONLY indicator of success...

...or failure.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Thai Silp staff check company assets

(BangkokPost.com) - Representatives of workers at the debt-plagued Thai Silp Co began checking the remaining products at its factory Saturday morning to see what they can sell in order to raise money to pay for compensation for workers after owners decided to shut down the company early next month.

snip

On Thursday, owner Pipan Oon-opas requested the workers to accept half their wages in July, saying the company had only nine million baht but owed 1.4 billion baht to its debtors.

The Post Publishing Public Co

Bank consortium offers new loans to garment factory

BANGKOK, July 21 (TNA) - Several banks which had earlier provided loans to the Thai Silp South East Import Export Co. have offered to extend additional funds to the debt-ridden garment factory which recently declared its intention to go out of business early next month.

Kasikorn Bank vice president Boonthak Wangcharoen said executives of the Thai Silp garment factory's creditor banks, namely Bangkok Bank, Bank of Ayudhya, Siam Commercial Bank, HSBC and the Kasikornbank, had met together and agreed to give more loans for the factory, despite its management's decision to go out of business in the face of a Bt1.4 billion loss.

About 6,000 employees of the troubled factory have become jobless due to the unexpected shutdown of the factory in Samut Prakan's Bang Phli district.

However, the creditor banks preferred the garment factory reopen shortly so that those employees could come back to work though an exact amount of new bank loans to provide is yet to be specified at a later date pending consideration on the company's business plan, according to Mr. Boonthak.

The Labour Ministry had earlier pledged to help find jobs for the unemployed factory workers who are yet to receive overdue wages and severance pay.

The shutdown of the Thai Silp factory, known to have been run as a traditional family style business, had taken the creditor banks by surprise, the senior banker added. (TNA)-E008

Hope on the horizon....but, for how long ?

LaoPo

[Mid]

The shutdown of the Thai Silp factory, known to have been run as a traditional family style business, had taken the creditor banks by surprise, the senior banker added.

really ??

[LaoPo]

The shutdown of the Thai Silp factory, known to have been run as a traditional family style business, had taken the creditor banks by surprise, the senior banker added.

really ??

Maybe they didn't 'communicate' enough....on the Golf course.

LaoPo

[bingobongo]

everything is ok in fantasyland.....nothing to see here.....how many banks does this make? nothing like a 10 BILLION baht swing in 1 year.......

BAY loses Bt8.8 bn in 2Q

Bank of Ayudhya announced on Friday it recorded net loss of Bt8.81 billion in the second quarter 2007, compared to a net profit of Bt1.61 billion in the same period last year.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/07/20/business/business_30041719.php

[bkkandrew]

everything is ok in fantasyland.....nothing to see here.....how many banks does this make? nothing like a 10 BILLION baht swing in 1 year.......

BAY loses Bt8.8 bn in 2Q

Bank of Ayudhya announced on Friday it recorded net loss of Bt8.81 billion in the second quarter 2007, compared to a net profit of Bt1.61 billion in the same period last year.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/07/20/business/business_30041719.php

Thank God I only keep a few baht in my Ayudhya account

[Gumballl]

Well this topic has reached 80 pages. Is Thailand in a crisis yet??

When the economy has crashed, or at least is within a recession, and many people are out of work and companies are closing left and right, then I will consider Thailand to be in a crisis. Until then, its just another day in a troubled country.

Another thought crossing my mind... with the gov't recently lowering interest rates, inflation on the rise (at least that's my perception), some jobs being lost... is the Thai economy facing stagflation? If so, then perhaps Thailand is in a state of crisis. Governments are usually the last to admit an economy is going nowhere fast, or it is in recession, so I guess we will have to wait and see what the true state of the economy is.

Edited July 22, 2007 by Gumballl

[ding]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

[bingobongo]

hello highdiver, your musings are that of a witless child.......

anyway back to reality.....

now if this is just the unahppiness in Bangkok..... i wonder how the millions of impoverished disenfranchised voters in the countryside are feeling as their own financial situations worsen as a result of the "glorious coup"..........welcome to your police state

Thai police clash with anti-government protesters

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/headlines/2007...Thai-police.htm

[endure]

Stop the personal insults.

[usatrader]

A simple observation and overt commentary as to this threads trend line of meaningfulness, by a Feral Grognard.

Substance;

A man who is and has something needs not say it is so, likewise, the same is true of a man who is and has nothing.

Yet, a man who “must” illustrate to others his meritorious and meaningfulness as to what he is and or is not or what others are and are not, in comparison, often as not, speaks from a purposelessness of reality wholly unrelated to what he is and or what he has done or will be or will do.

Disagreement is not as to being disagreeable. Nor is omnipotence as to humanity, they are instead, nature’s representative paradox of and about humanity, seldom sacrosanct and as often as not, as wrong as right.

Puff on, big daddy, puff on!

That is all!

[bingobongo]

reality is what it is, nothing more and nothing less........no unicorns here.....first the farmers, then the shrimp industry, and now the rubber industry.......

of course there is no crisis in LOS when you are a well to do farang or elitist......but for the working class, now that would be a different story

AGRICULTURE

Strong baht hits rubber exporters

Rubber exporters say the industry could lose more than 20 billion baht as the strong baht climbs further against the falling US dollar.

According to Luckchai Kittipol, president of the Thai Rubber Association, rubber is one of the products that will be hardest hit by the baht's surge against the US dollar, with export values expected to decline by more than 10% this year.

The association expects Thailand to ship about 2.8 million tonnes of rubber by the end of this year, a 5% rise, but the export value should drop from 210 billion baht earned last year.

The surging baht is now affecting farmers as the prices of the benchmark ribbed smoked sheet No. 3 (RSS3) now stand at only 60 baht per kilogramme, down about 10 baht in the past few months, Mr Luckchai said.

RSS3 peaked last year at 100 baht per kg thanks to high oil prices, which had prompted the world's tyremakers to order more natural rubber instead of petroleum-based synthetic raw materials.

Although oil prices remain relatively high this year, Mr Luckchai said, farmers' incomes have dropped due to the strong baht.

He warned that farmers would be in trouble and would lobby the government for help if rubber prices dropped to 50 baht per kg.

He added that exporters were now unwilling to accept advance purchase orders because of fear of volatile currency exchange rates. Most of them now accept orders just on a monthly basis to prevent exchange risk.

According to Mr Luckchai, the strong baht may lead local makers of rubber products to relocate to Vietnam, which has a more stable currency, cheaper raw materials, and lower labour costs.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/23Jul2007_biz29.php

Edited July 23, 2007 by bingobongo

[midas]

As for the issue at hand . as the discussion is about the Thai economy and your presistant posts of thailand needing to compete with the less developed countries. which I as a resident of thailand dont agree to your views.

you still did not answer the questions I asked about the fact that thailand should aim to compete with higer developed countries,but rather seeked to slander me personaly. or are your posts just a way to "show off" taht you can have a view. I'm not being rude, you're views about me are just insignificant..

But equally highdiver, you have failed to respond to the question as to whether

the education system in Thailand is ready yet to provide a high-caliber working population

to meet those sorts of needs ? 79,000 Thai students considered to be illiterate ???

I don't think you will find such a problem in Singapore,China etc ?

[Mid]

Thai Silp staff check company assets

(BangkokPost.com) - Representatives of workers at the debt-plagued Thai Silp Co began checking the remaining products at its factory Saturday morning to see what they can sell in order to raise money to pay for compensation for workers after owners decided to shut down the company early next month.

snip

On Thursday, owner Pipan Oon-opas requested the workers to accept half their wages in July, saying the company had only nine million baht but owed 1.4 billion baht to its debtors.

The Post Publishing Public Co

Thai Silp employees to receive salary

Some 4,000 employees of Thai Silp South East Asia Import Export Company arrived at the garment factory on Monday morning to receive severance and back pay from the company’s owners.

On Thursday owners of Thai Silp decided to close down the factory indefinitely after failing to acquire loans to keep their business afloat. The factory received a huge blow to its operations as a result of the baht’s sharp appreciation and had been unable to pay its staff.

The Post Publishing Public Co

[highdiver]

reality is what it is, nothing more and nothing less........no unicorns here.....first the farmers, then the shrimp industry, and now the rubber industry.......

of course there is no crisis in LOS when you are a well to do farang or elitist......but for the working class, now that would be a different story

AGRICULTURE

Strong baht hits rubber exporters

Rubber exporters say the industry could lose more than 20 billion baht as the strong baht climbs further against the falling US dollar.

According to Luckchai Kittipol, president of the Thai Rubber Association, rubber is one of the products that will be hardest hit by the baht's surge against the US dollar, with export values expected to decline by more than 10% this year.

The association expects Thailand to ship about 2.8 million tonnes of rubber by the end of this year, a 5% rise, but the export value should drop from 210 billion baht earned last year.

The surging baht is now affecting farmers as the prices of the benchmark ribbed smoked sheet No. 3 (RSS3) now stand at only 60 baht per kilogramme, down about 10 baht in the past few months, Mr Luckchai said.

RSS3 peaked last year at 100 baht per kg thanks to high oil prices, which had prompted the world's tyremakers to order more natural rubber instead of petroleum-based synthetic raw materials.

Although oil prices remain relatively high this year, Mr Luckchai said, farmers' incomes have dropped due to the strong baht.

He warned that farmers would be in trouble and would lobby the government for help if rubber prices dropped to 50 baht per kg.

He added that exporters were now unwilling to accept advance purchase orders because of fear of volatile currency exchange rates. Most of them now accept orders just on a monthly basis to prevent exchange risk.

According to Mr Luckchai, the strong baht may lead local makers of rubber products to relocate to Vietnam, which has a more stable currency, cheaper raw materials, and lower labour costs.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/23Jul2007_biz29.php

This is the greatest..

I and Thai some friends Thai who are Rubber tree farmers were reading this article and we could not stop loughing.

First the Rubber prices as of this morning are 67 baht for a sheet. you can come and look at it yourself if you have time its realy nice to see how rubber exchange works.

I truely understand this headline and where it is coming from..."Luckchai Kittipol, president of the Thai Rubber Association"

so the fact that they are exporting 5% more then last year has evaded you

the value in export will go down for the export companies that sell the product in USD under locked futures. they are the only ones that stand to loose. hence they go to the press and make it every ones problem.

the global demand for natural rubber is rising and is expected to rise even further.

i dont recall the "president " who is one of those that stand to loose because his contracts are secured by a long run, complaining when he made a lot of profits when the baht was weaker.

This is actually one of the first seasons that I can recall that farmers are actually having a proper gain. they are producing more and getting paid more.. hence they make mo0re money.

the farmers dont have a problem as they are selling in baht. and the prices are still very high compared with the price of around 40 baht from 2 years ago.

as for your coments:

"of course there is no crisis in LOS when you are a well to do farang or elitist......but for the working class, now that would be a different story"

so now your postion has changed from Thailand is in crisis and everything is dooms day to there is no crisis for the elite but the working class are in crisis.

[highdiver]

As for the issue at hand . as the discussion is about the Thai economy and your presistant posts of thailand needing to compete with the less developed countries. which I as a resident of thailand dont agree to your views.

you still did not answer the questions I asked about the fact that thailand should aim to compete with higer developed countries,but rather seeked to slander me personaly. or are your posts just a way to "show off" taht you can have a view. I'm not being rude, you're views about me are just insignificant..

But equally highdiver, you have failed to respond to the question as to whether

the education system in Thailand is ready yet to provide a high-caliber working population

to meet those sorts of needs ? 79,000 Thai students considered to be illiterate ???

I don't think you will find such a problem in Singapore,China etc ?

I have answered it. but you seem to have missed my point of debate as i totaly agree with you..

Thailand needs to attempt and compete with higer industires and not compete with Vietnam or cambodia for cheap labour low level production. as Parakong is continuously posting.

I think thailand has come a long way in improving high caliber education and that the progress has and is been made.

Thailand has good students and good education.. example from yesterday.. the thai studen who won the phisics price..

there are some excelant universities in thailand that can produce qulified people to compete on higer levels. however more should be done to allow more an more people to benefit from education.

In order for thailand to compete in higher markets more investment and attention is needed to prepare the future generations by providing them with education to prepare them.

my point is for thialnd to compete with higer it must invest in education and not waist time on investing measures to compete with leass developed countries.

my point is that thailand should aim higer and not lower. sugesting that thailand needs to continue competing with cambodia and vietnam is to the suggest that thailand moves back.