The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[LaoPo]

Wasn't Thai Slip the one that the government came in to help re-open?

Thai Silp is definitely closed and all industrial equipment/sewing machines and office equipment sold for 68 Million Baht whilst the 5.000 workers are still owed 122 Million Baht.

It's rumored that the owners are re-building in Vietnam.

A far as I'm informed it was not the government stepping in to help the workers but the Textile/Fashion organization; if they helped...? Not sure, but I don't think so, otherwise the workers wouldn't protest.

http://www.bangkokpost.net/080807_News/08Aug2007_news06.php

LaoPo

[Kf6vci]

not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

I agree with you. but maybe not got the same reason.

Thailand is facing another financial crisis vulnerability because huge hedge funds and investment banks have taken position on the thai baht. As such Thailand is now at the mercy of those forign speculators that can decide to draw out and repeat the same crisis as in 97. Unfortunatly this is now a problem not only for thailand but for the whole world. the Huge fund mangers have only one consideration and that is to make more and more profits. they dont care if they can ruin a country or devestate an economy while doing so.

All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

Highdiver, You hit the nail on the head! I have posted multiple times on this subject but most people here just don't get it. When the hedge funds decide to get out of their investments and change their baht back in to euros and U.S. dollars then the Thai baht will do an absolute backflip. People don't realize the size and scope of these funds to change capital markets overnight and ruin a small countries economy as well, and you are correct that absolute greed is the only thing that motivates these people. It is truely unconsionable how governments both in the U.S. and Europe have been bought off and make no attempt to have any regulation or oversight on these hedge fund criminals. A good example was the democratic debate in south carolina yesterday, the moderator asked john edwards and hillary clinton the same question about what they would do to institute some oversight on the hedge fund industry if elected and both candidates completely dodged the question and talked about something else. The next question in the debate was directed toward chris dodd (a senator from conneticut that the hegde fund industry has in its back pocket) and you could see senator dodd sweating bullets thinking that he might be getting the same question on the hegde fund industry, but sadly the moderator seeing that he was not going to get a straight answer about hedge funds from these candidiates, changed the line of questioning and you could see the immediate relief on chris dodds face. Just as Jesus overturned the carts of the moneychangers in the temple, we need someone in power with a strong loyal following to turn over the carts of the hedge funds and watch as the cockroaches scrurry, if something isn't done soon then I feel that the price to pay will be devestating.

************

Vegas Vic, I believe that Vultures, Hyenas and Piranha fish all serve a purpose for the common good. Hedge Funds play a similar role. And when it comes to national banks, over- or undervalued currencies and worldwide monetary imbalances (there is a good article by Bernard Connolly in the CME's magazine at http://www.cme.com ) they are trying to use the hype for their advantage. But they are not responsible for underlying issues. More government control and regulation is not the way to solve economic growth issues!

[Mid]

Factory ordered to pay workers by Friday

BREAKING NEWS

(BangkokPost.com) - Labour Protection and Welfare Department ordered owners of garment maker Thai Silp South East Asia Import Export to pay compensation for workers by September 7.

The department ordered the owners of the factory, which was closed down on August 5, to pay compensation worth 29 million baht to 560 workers by the deadline, Phadungsak Thephasdin na Ayudhya, director-general of the Labour Protection and Welfare Department said Wednesday.

snip

bangkokpost.com

[VegasVic]

not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

I agree with you. but maybe not got the same reason.

Thailand is facing another financial crisis vulnerability because huge hedge funds and investment banks have taken position on the thai baht. As such Thailand is now at the mercy of those forign speculators that can decide to draw out and repeat the same crisis as in 97. Unfortunatly this is now a problem not only for thailand but for the whole world. the Huge fund mangers have only one consideration and that is to make more and more profits. they dont care if they can ruin a country or devestate an economy while doing so.

All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

Highdiver, You hit the nail on the head! I have posted multiple times on this subject but most people here just don't get it. When the hedge funds decide to get out of their investments and change their baht back in to euros and U.S. dollars then the Thai baht will do an absolute backflip. People don't realize the size and scope of these funds to change capital markets overnight and ruin a small countries economy as well, and you are correct that absolute greed is the only thing that motivates these people. It is truely unconsionable how governments both in the U.S. and Europe have been bought off and make no attempt to have any regulation or oversight on these hedge fund criminals. A good example was the democratic debate in south carolina yesterday, the moderator asked john edwards and hillary clinton the same question about what they would do to institute some oversight on the hedge fund industry if elected and both candidates completely dodged the question and talked about something else. The next question in the debate was directed toward chris dodd (a senator from conneticut that the hegde fund industry has in its back pocket) and you could see senator dodd sweating bullets thinking that he might be getting the same question on the hegde fund industry, but sadly the moderator seeing that he was not going to get a straight answer about hedge funds from these candidiates, changed the line of questioning and you could see the immediate relief on chris dodds face. Just as Jesus overturned the carts of the moneychangers in the temple, we need someone in power with a strong loyal following to turn over the carts of the hedge funds and watch as the cockroaches scrurry, if something isn't done soon then I feel that the price to pay will be devestating.

************

Vegas Vic, I believe that Vultures, Hyenas and Piranha fish all serve a purpose for the common good. Hedge Funds play a similar role. And when it comes to national banks, over- or undervalued currencies and worldwide monetary imbalances (there is a good article by Bernard Connolly in the CME's magazine at http://www.cme.com ) they are trying to use the hype for their advantage. But they are not responsible for underlying issues. More government control and regulation is not the way to solve economic growth issues!

Oh contraire! The reckless, highly leveraged end of the hedge fund industry is indeed responsible for many of the current liqiudity problems, but as far as more government regulation goes I completely agree with you, all you really have to do is make all those hedge funds follow the same laws as mutual funds have to currently and "poof" overnight you will have transparency in the hedge fund industry As far as the current talk in Congress about the taxation of these hedge fund principles and the billions that they make it is quite simple, if these "hedge fund managers" have their own money at risk then it falls under capital gains, if not and they are paid fees or shares to manage the fund then it is quite clearly income and should be taxed as such. If the U.S. Congress would just adopt the "fair tax" then all of these taxation issues would become moot

[LaoPo]

Oh contraire! The reckless, highly leveraged end of the hedge fund industry is indeed responsible for many of the current liqiudity problems, but as far as more government regulation goes I completely agree with you, all you really have to do is make all those hedge funds follow the same laws as mutual funds have to currently and "poof" overnight you will have transparency in the hedge fund industry As far as the current talk in Congress about the taxation of these hedge fund principles and the billions that they make it is quite simple, if these "hedge fund managers" have their own money at risk then it falls under capital gains, if not and they are paid fees or shares to manage the fund then it is quite clearly income and should be taxed as such. If the U.S. Congress would just adopt the "fair tax" then all of these taxation issues would become moot

Sometimes we differ Vic, but I agree with this one.

These hedge funds, which are in fact artificial (but so far allowed) financial sharks, taking advantage of Tax-Law loopholes, are for a main part responsible for the mortgage problems.

But, US, EU and other countries' governments are in fact as much responsible as the hedge funds, together with the (mortgage) banks, giving out mortgages to 'financially weak' people.

Banks are legalized mafia.

When I was young an important business chap once told me:

"when you borrow $ 10.000 from a Bank, the Bank will tell and order you what to do and what NOT to do.....BUT, if you manage to borrow $ 100 Million from a Bank, YOU will tell the bank what to do...and IF they don't listen, you just tell them to <deleted> off...."

He was right; it takes time to learn though

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Thailand's Growth to Slow, Central Bank's Tarisa Says

Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand's central bank Governor Tarisa Watanagase said that the country's economy will probably slow in the second half of the year and that there's little threat from consumer prices.

``Inflation has been benign all along, whether headline or core,'' excluding food and energy costs, Tarisa said in an interview before a speech today at a conference on Asian banking in San Francisco. The slowdown in export growth during recent months is ``not anything unexpected,'' she added.

Thailand's central bank has lowered its benchmark interest rate at five of six meetings this year to spur spending and contain an appreciating currency. Consumer confidence is at a five-year low after sliding in most months since the military coup last September. Tarisa declined to comment on the prospect of another rate cut this year.

The junta that runs the country is seeking to protect exports, which comprise 60 percent of the economy. Shipments abroad increased 6 percent in August after advancing 6.2 percent in July and as much as 18 percent in June.

Consumer prices rose 1.1 percent in August from a year earlier, the slowest pace since September 2002.

Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy expanded 4.4 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, compared with a 4.2 percent gain in the first three months of 2007.

Tarisa said she's ``keeping a close watch'' on the U.S. subprime-mortgage crisis, though ``right now it hasn't shown up significantly in our markets.''

`All' Concerned

``All central banks are concerned about it,'' Tarisa said. Central banks from Australia to Europe and Canada, as well as the Federal Reserve, have injected funds into money markets to ease a liquidity shortage in the past month.

Thailand's central bank chief compared the subprime mortgage boom to the atmosphere in Thailand before the 1997 Asian financial crisis, with bankers and borrowers in ``a state of euphoria'' and cheap money readily available.

Asia has emerged more resilient in the past decade, with improved supervision of banks and risk management, Tarisa said in her speech. ``These changes in policies and risk awareness make it less likely that financial market disturbances will trigger a sharp and broad-based dent to real economic outcomes.''

One of the biggest challenges facing Asia is the pressure for rapid appreciation in exchange rates, she said.

In December, the Bank of Thailand placed limits on foreign investors' funds to try to curb gains in the baht. The rules require 30 percent of foreign investment funds to be locked in bank accounts, subject to penalties if cash is withdrawn within a year. That's spawned a two-tiered foreign exchange market, where the offshore rate has risen twice as fast as the official price of the baht.

Thailand's central bank chief said she doesn't anticipate any change for now in the capital controls.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

LaoPo

[j_cheung]

With all the urgency on stemming the Thai economy's chronic downturn and the recent global spewing of the sub-prime / carry-trade crisis, the Commerce Ministry's "finest" is already hard at work on planning for the future - namely his upcoming retirement!

Karun craves an easier life on retirement

Published on September 4, 2007

Yesterday was the last day for Commerce Ministry permanent secretary Karun Kittisataporn to chair the ministry's monthly press conference, as his early retirement resignation takes effect on October 1.

Reporters were not so curious about who will succeed him, but rather his retirement plans.

Previously, he admitted some companies had approached him to join them but that he had made no decision.

"I want to take a rest and sleep," said the former tough Thai trade negotiator.

"I've not yet thought about what I must do in the future, but I don't want to work as an adviser to any political party, organisation or company that is connected to politics or politicians."

After so many questions, he asked bluntly, "Now that I want to take a rest, why would I find a new job?"

Then he shifted his focus to the economic outlook.

To the reporters, it was fine to change the subject.

But rather than buying his comments that the economy would improve next year on the back of low interest rates and the election, they asked Karun about the latest updates on the government's rice-pledging programme.

There was no answer from Karun.

"There are too many problems," he said instead. "I'm thinking about recalling my resignation letter.

"I would not extend my stay, but on the contrary change the effective date from October 1 to September 1."

He must be counting the days now. Hopefully, these ongoing problems will not reach him after his retirement.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/09/04...ss_30047622.php

[cclub75]

Thailand's Growth to Slow, Central Bank's Tarisa Says

Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand's central bank Governor Tarisa Watanagase said that the country's economy will probably slow in the second half of the year and that there's little threat from consumer prices.

It's so good to see those officials... who eventually... start to show some common sense.

So much for the boiling room !

By the way, the details of components of GDP for Q2 have been published.

Here is a nice little chart. "Companies do not invest, and people don’t buy more. It means thoses 2 engines for GDP growth are still turned off."

[Mid]

PM: Govt to solve crisis in Thailand

BREAKING NEWS

(BangkokPost.com) - Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont promised Thai people in Australia that the government will solve crisis in Thailand and will lead the country to democracy

snip

bangkokpost.com

[LaoPo]

PM: Govt to solve crisis in Thailand

BREAKING NEWS

(BangkokPost.com) - Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont promised Thai people in Australia that the government will solve crisis in Thailand and will lead the country to democracy

snip

bangkokpost.com

A good laugh makes my day

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Lehman wins bid to buy Thai insurer stake

BANGKOK (Reuters) - U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) has won the bidding to buy a 19.2 percent stake in Thai Finansa Life Assurance for 500 million baht ($17.13 million), a source at the Thai company said on Friday.

"Lehman has won the bid. Initially, Lehman will invest 500 million baht," the source said. "The deal has been submitted to the Department of Insurance for approval and should get approval this month."

Four foreign investors, including three insurance firms, had been interested in acquiring the stake in Finansa, which wanted to raise funds to cover its capital deficit, Finansa's executive Ronnapit Hastin na Ayudhya has said.

"Lehman's network should complement Finansa on expanding its client base" and the investment bank was likely to increase its stake later, the source said.

Foreign holdings in a Thai insurance firm are limited to 25 percent although the government has proposed raising the cap to 49 percent as part of its plan to liberalize the sector.

The stake sale would raise Finansa's registered paid up capital to 2.6 billion baht, enough to cover its capital deficit due to losses on the Thai stock market (.SETI: Quote, Profile, Research) and spending on its new head office, Finansa's Ronnapit has said.

Finansa Life Assurance is among several insurance companies told to shore up their capital by the Commerce Ministry.

It is majority owned by merchant banking group Finansa PCL (FNS.BK: Quote, Profile, Research), its holding firms and non-life insurance firm Viriya Insurance.

It had a small 1.1 percent share of Thai life premiums of 174 billion baht in 2006, industry data showed. ($1=34.27 Baht)

http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingfina...KK7575620070907

LaoPo

[A_Traveller]

The thing I notice is how little coverage, at least thus far, has been given to SIVs and conduits. They are the real risk bearers, designed, often by banks, to allow 'off balance sheet' activities {remember that from Enron anyone} where these vehicles could also add to the bottom line of the managing institution {fees etc.} but did not figure as part of the overall risk analysis required under Basel II, especially referring to capital adequacy. Any wonder that institutions now are reluctant to loan finds to each other, the so described liquidity issue. After all who can say where they will be in 90 days and issuance of short-term debt {asset-backed commercial paper} means that investors who bought the paper are now deciding it is not worth the risk.

Some SIVs had back-up banking facilities which were designed to step in and ensure the investors, however many did not, especially the variety called conduits. But avoiding this direct liability may be of little help for the banking industry as a whole, since when SIVs cannot get funding, they are ultimately forced to sell assets. The sales run the risk of becoming viewed as 'fire sales' with the concomitant risk of pushing down prices and thereby increasing the chances of the banks suffering losses elsewhere.

There is an irony here, in that good banking practice called for the provision of a material adverse change clause which was specifically designed to reduce or even cancel financing if severe turbulence hit the markets. However, the present incumbents seemed to forget that traditions sometimes are there for a reason, such as experience.

Regards

[Carmine6]

Lehman wins bid to buy Thai insurer stake

BANGKOK (Reuters) - U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) has won the bidding to buy a 19.2 percent stake in Thai Finansa Life Assurance for 500 million baht ($17.13 million), a source at the Thai company said on Friday.

"Lehman has won the bid. Initially, Lehman will invest 500 million baht," the source said. "The deal has been submitted to the Department of Insurance for approval and should get approval this month."

Four foreign investors, including three insurance firms, had been interested in acquiring the stake in Finansa, which wanted to raise funds to cover its capital deficit, Finansa's executive Ronnapit Hastin na Ayudhya has said.

"Lehman's network should complement Finansa on expanding its client base" and the investment bank was likely to increase its stake later, the source said.

Foreign holdings in a Thai insurance firm are limited to 25 percent although the government has proposed raising the cap to 49 percent as part of its plan to liberalize the sector.

The stake sale would raise Finansa's registered paid up capital to 2.6 billion baht, enough to cover its capital deficit due to losses on the Thai stock market (.SETI: Quote, Profile, Research) and spending on its new head office, Finansa's Ronnapit has said.

Finansa Life Assurance is among several insurance companies told to shore up their capital by the Commerce Ministry.

It is majority owned by merchant banking group Finansa PCL (FNS.BK: Quote, Profile, Research), its holding firms and non-life insurance firm Viriya Insurance.

It had a small 1.1 percent share of Thai life premiums of 174 billion baht in 2006, industry data showed. ($1=34.27 Baht)

http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingfina...KK7575620070907

LaoPo

I really think the SET is going to rally. As long as the election goes off as scheduled and is reasonably legitimate in the eyes of the Thais, I think that'll be the sign to outside investors to move in. Domestic consumption has been depressed a bit during the coup. There's going to be a little increase in the run up to the election which will also coincide with the front end of the tourist high season. So there will be good data coming together.

Add that on top of the weakening dollar and a relatively cheap SET, and Thailand looks good to invest in. All those mutual funds heavy in Korea and China are going to be reconsidering allocation if there are further signs of US economic slowing.

Edited September 7, 2007 by Carmine6

[LaoPo]

Lehman wins bid to buy Thai insurer stake

BANGKOK (Reuters) - U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) has won the bidding to buy a 19.2 percent stake in Thai Finansa Life Assurance for 500 million baht ($17.13 million), a source at the Thai company said on Friday.

"Lehman has won the bid. Initially, Lehman will invest 500 million baht," the source said. "The deal has been submitted to the Department of Insurance for approval and should get approval this month."

Four foreign investors, including three insurance firms, had been interested in acquiring the stake in Finansa, which wanted to raise funds to cover its capital deficit, Finansa's executive Ronnapit Hastin na Ayudhya has said.

"Lehman's network should complement Finansa on expanding its client base" and the investment bank was likely to increase its stake later, the source said.

Foreign holdings in a Thai insurance firm are limited to 25 percent although the government has proposed raising the cap to 49 percent as part of its plan to liberalize the sector.

The stake sale would raise Finansa's registered paid up capital to 2.6 billion baht, enough to cover its capital deficit due to losses on the Thai stock market (.SETI: Quote, Profile, Research) and spending on its new head office, Finansa's Ronnapit has said.

Finansa Life Assurance is among several insurance companies told to shore up their capital by the Commerce Ministry.

It is majority owned by merchant banking group Finansa PCL (FNS.BK: Quote, Profile, Research), its holding firms and non-life insurance firm Viriya Insurance.

It had a small 1.1 percent share of Thai life premiums of 174 billion baht in 2006, industry data showed. ($1=34.27 Baht)

http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingfina...KK7575620070907

LaoPo

I really think the SET is going to rally. As long as the election goes off as scheduled and is reasonably legitimate in the eyes of the Thais, I think that'll be the sign to outside investors to move in. Domestic consumption has been depressed a bit during the coup. There's going to be a little increase in the run up to the election which will also coincide with the front end of the tourist high season. So there will be good data coming together.

Add that on top of the weakening dollar and a relatively cheap SET, and Thailand looks good to invest in. All those mutual funds heavy in Korea and China are going to be reconsidering allocation if there are further signs of US economic slowing.

I help you hoping so Carmine6, but....unfortunately, I think you're off track for the short to medium term; but, I hope I'm wrong, and I really do !

The world markets don't even notice the Thai elections and I'm afraid the SET will suffer from what's going on right now...

'New York' is seriously down now, by around -2% for the major 3 indexes, DJIA, NASDAQ & S&P500 but the markets aren't closed yet. (see below)

The aftermath of the subprime crisis is now hurting the real economy and the first sign is the unexpectedly high decrease in jobs growth (first time in 4 years) and increase of foreclosures. On top of that there's fear in Japan of a real estate bubble burst which would hurt the financial industry quite serious.

ALL Asian, European and US markets are seriously down today by more than (or close to) -2%, and I fear it's just the beginning. The same for the major China indexes: -2% or more. Thailand's SET was a 'moderate' -1.03%

The avalanche of bad news, also in the EU Banking industry, and fear for inflation by the ECB in Frankfurt shows so, thinking of increasing the rates.

Good news from Malaysia who will cut tax rate on company earnings to 25 percent in 2009 for the third year. The rate was dropped from 28 percent last year to 27 percent in 2007, and is due to decline to 26 percent in 2008, still higher than neighboring Singapore, where the impost on companies is scheduled to fall to 18 percent in 2008 from 20 percent now.

Malaysia also boosted spending on education and housing in an attempt to spur economic growth.*

Where is Thailand with steps to boost the economy ?

We'll see what Monday will bring.

* from: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

Closed Friday Sept. 7, 2007:

Dow 13,113.38 -249.97 (-1.87%)

Nasdaq 2,565.70 -48.62 (-1.86%)

S&P 500 1,453.55 -25.00 (-1.69%)

LaoPo

Edited September 7, 2007 by LaoPo

[cclub75]

Where is Thailand with steps to boost the economy ?

We'll see what Monday will bring.

LaoPo, you're way too pessimistic. Think about it !

In order to boost its economy, Thailand is using some very powerfull tools :

-Scare foreign investors with capital controls, amendment of the FBA, and a brand new Retail Act

-Scare tourists and foreign residents with changes of Immigration regulations, a rebellion in the South, some bombings -still unsolved- here or there

-Scare the international community by making Coup, allowing a bunch of generals to play like politicians, and by being unsure about the date of the next elections etc.

-Scare human right watchers with many new laws promoting censorship, sending people to jail when they dare to make some critics on Internet

-And last but not least, scare our koreans friends, by arresting top executives of a very well known multinational like if they were drug dealers.

The list goes on. I mean : respect ! What other country could compete against such a firework of brillant ideas ?

[chinthee]

I am quite frankly stunned by the totality of the circumstances as outlined by cclub, and as could elaborated on further.

Mostly, I'm surprised at the amount of law-making and regulatory rule making taking place by a self-professed benign and interim caretaker government. My message to Thai government: If you want to increase investor confidence, you are going about it bass-ackwards.

[cclub75]

I am quite frankly stunned by the totality of the circumstances as outlined by cclub, and as could elaborated on further.

Mostly, I'm surprised at the amount of law-making and regulatory rule making taking place by a self-professed benign and interim caretaker government. My message to Thai government: If you want to increase investor confidence, you are going about it bass-ackwards.

I'm truly sorry. I forgot an important one :

-Scare big drugs companies, by issuing... compulsory licences, and violating IP rights.

That's a good one too.

[LaoPo]

If it wasn't so serious, I would laugh too

Thailand is ruled by the men in green and the elite behind them, and it's all about Power, Money, Greed and Protection and a so called Democracy, which in fact is no more than the b(l)ack road to absolute control by the elite and army.

That's a shame and very sad for the majority of Thai people, not so much for us 'Farang', as we will always have (in most cases) a country to go back to, in case we're forced to.

Thai can go nowhere.

Maybe some (or many) of you will laugh at me, but I predict there will come a time in the future that the Thai wish they could have a former PM back in control...

If, and when, that moment comes...? I don't know, but the men in green and elite better hide, since history tells that no one can withstand the Power-of-the-People. No One !

I doubt if it will be the former PM but new charismatic individuals will stand up and wake the people...

Ok, you may bash me now, but gentle please...

LaoPo

[Jai Dee]

PM is confident that economy will increase 4-4.5%

The Prime Minister, Gen. Surayud Chulanont (สุรยุทธ์ จุลานนท์), believes Thailand’s economy can still grow by four to 4.5 percent this year as targeted.

Gen. Surayud gave an interview on the Open Phitsanulok House program on government-owned television and radio this morning (September 8th). He says the economy has many elements to be considered. He says the export sector has increased by 10 percent during the last 10 months, and the figure should be around 12.5 percent by the end of this year.

The Prime Minister says the economy stumbled in July, 2007 because of the appreciation of Thai baht. However, he still believes that this year’s economy will grow by four to 4.5 percent as projected due to the export growth and the government’s expenditures and emerging projects.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 08 September 2007

[soundman]

Maybe some (or many) of you will laugh at me, but I predict there will come a time in the future that the Thai wish they could have a former PM back in control...

Ok, you may bash me now, but gentle please...

LaoPo

Prem?

[VegasVic]

Where is Thailand with steps to boost the economy ?

We'll see what Monday will bring.

LaoPo, you're way too pessimistic. Think about it !

In order to boost its economy, Thailand is using some very powerfull tools :

-Scare foreign investors with capital controls, amendment of the FBA, and a brand new Retail Act

-Scare tourists and foreign residents with changes of Immigration regulations, a rebellion in the South, some bombings -still unsolved- here or there

-Scare the international community by making Coup, allowing a bunch of generals to play like politicians, and by being unsure about the date of the next elections etc.

-Scare human right watchers with many new laws promoting censorship, sending people to jail when they dare to make some critics on Internet

-And last but not least, scare our koreans friends, by arresting top executives of a very well known multinational like if they were drug dealers.

The list goes on. I mean : respect ! What other country could compete against such a firework of brillant ideas ?

Well since you put it that way, then I might have to revise my forcast for the SET for the rest of the year from "flat to down" to "up up and away"

[cclub75]

Well since you put it that way, then I might have to revise my forcast for the SET for the rest of the year from "flat to down" to "up up and away"

I know VegasVic, you're a famous contrarian.

[bingobongo]

• BOT: Beware of a new crisis
  http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/09/08...ss_30048207.php
  

[Mid]

• BOT: Beware of a new crisis
  http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/09/08...ss_30048207.php
  

kinda busy with the old one still ,

could you come back later ??

[Mid]

Opinion

Zen and the art of the motorcycle business

That nationwide motorcycle sales from January to July of this year were down 16 per cent from the same period last year, as reported in the August 30 edition of Krungthep Turakij, will come as a surprise only to those in the business who felt the drop to be steeper.

Published on September 9, 2007

In addition to the high oil prices of recent years that have discouraged consumers from buying new vehicles (as well as wiped out the less efficient two-stroke engines), the depressed economy also has had a profound effect on sales. And that's before taking into account the damages wrought in agricultural areas by last year's devastating floods. The ubiquitous promotion offering "free Jatukam amulets" to would-be motorcycle-buyers seen in many provinces doesn't appear to be working at the moment.

However, the business has had it worse during the post-1997 years.

Although the repossession rate is now climbing again, at least this time around there haven't (yet) been cases of criminal gangs going from province to province and hiring cash-strapped locals to buy motorbikes on small down payments and smuggle the vehicles across the border to sell.

Along with mobile phones, motorcycles were often viewed in the capital as one of the luxury items that "grass-roots" people rushed to buy with free handouts from ex-prime minister Thaksin's village-fund scheme. For the great majority in the country, however, motorbikes are actually a necessity. They not only cover functions served in Bangkok by cars, like going to work or taking the children to school - at a fraction of the price - but for many they are essential for making a living. Bangkok would have to say goodbye to durians, for example, and many other agricultural products, if there were no motorbikes to transport them out of difficult terrain.

That's why motorbikes are hand-down Thailand's vehicle of choice and a good guide to the health of the economy. For a market of one to two million units annually, the four major players, all Thai-Japanese joint ventures, are constantly at each other's throats by releasing new models, their equivalent to "populist policies". Unsurprisingly, all kinds of marketing ploys are also utilised to win the hearts of buyers. The business probably uses more celebrity models than any other durable product.

A few years ago when cheap imports from China were banging at the gate, there was a panic among established local manufacturers. They hurried to design more cost-effective models, with the overall result that motorcycles became cheaper. It was the consumers who profited.

In the end, undoubtedly after furious lobbying, the door was shut to Chinese imports. One can only wonder how much more of a benefit would have been derived from the extra competition. This is not to say that the Chinese products would in the end prevail. Most likely, as with electrical appliances, consumers would discover that the cheapest product is unlikely to be the best, but there would certainly have been progress from the learning experience. But now we will never know, because faith in the opinions of the common people has always been lacking in this country.

Upon first looking at consumer choices, it doesn't seem that people always make rational decisions, as the best-selling motorbikes are often not the ones with the best designs or mechanics. But before writing them off as ignoramuses, as when they "sell out" to Thaksin's populist policies, one needs to look deeper to understand the logic involved in the democracy of choice. One thing that is certain is that nobody buys a motorbike based on petty freebies.

Even more than price, the public's perception of a brand is critical in purchase decisions. Honda's quality control, which is bolstered by its carefully crafted image, accounts for much of the company's continuing success across the country, with roughly two-thirds of market share.

Innovations are also rewarded. Yamaha's foray into "automatic" motorbikes paid off handsomely and is now followed even by the market leader. What won't sell a product, on the other hand, is an elitist attitude unresponsive to the interest and opinions of "buyers".

In his famous 1974 novel cum philosophy exposition "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry into Values", Richard Pirsig made "quality" his central theme while refusing to define it. In the same vein, this government seems to take a Zen-like approach to economy. While scanning the sky for largely undefined "gross national happiness", the administration is perceived to give short shrift to "fingers pointing toward the moon", namely economic indices and numbers.

That consumers are sealing their purses may thus be read as a commentary on the lack of choice and clear direction. It's as if all motorcycle companies had been, for the sake of unity, merged into one monopoly with no market-research department. Who can blame them for wanting different products from beyond these borders, even if the products are toxic?

Some people will remember Tiger motorbikes, which soon after 1997 rode into the country's consciousness as Thailand's own motorcycle brand. Now Tiger, as Thanin has done for televisions and radios before it, looks to have proven again that lofty idealism is no substitute for a sound business model.

As customers stay away, those in the motorcycle business meanwhile can use their new-found free time to learn the official doublespeak where c-r-i-s-i-s is pronounced "opportunity", and b-a-d spells "good", while patiently waiting for the election to bring an end to this "interesting time". May they have what they wish for.

Paisarn Likhitpreechakul

Bangkok

Paisarn Likhitpreechakul is a freelance writer. His family began business as a motorcycle dealership when he was seven. Despite his lifelong attempts to run away from the business, fate would not hear of it.

nationmultimedia.com

[highdiver]

Where is Thailand with steps to boost the economy ?

We'll see what Monday will bring.

LaoPo, you're way too pessimistic. Think about it !

=============================================================================

In order to boost its economy, Thailand is using some very powerfull tools :

-Scare foreign investors with capital controls, amendment of the FBA, and a brand new Retail Act.

so all those huge forign investments done this year with growing application to the BOI are "scaring" the investors??

and all those condos sold to all those scared forigners???

and all those hedge funds speculators that cant stop investing in the SET??

yes it seems the are realy scared

-Scare tourists and foreign residents with changes of Immigration regulations, a rebellion in the South, some bombings -still unsolved- here or there

Right so the fact there more tourist this year then previous years has alluded you. and the fact that thailand has the right to impose imigration laws preventing bums that can not afford to be here is wrong??

-Scare the international community by making Coup, allowing a bunch of generals to play like politicians, and by being unsure about the date of the next elections etc.

So throwing out a corrupt PM who was on the vereg of instating an emergency law was wrong?? or was the fact that they have done everything they said the would that is "scarry".

Singapore is not realy a democracy and it puts many limitiation on freedom of speech. i dont see any one scaed there as well.

-Scare human right watchers with many new laws promoting censorship, sending people to jail when they dare to make some critics on Internet

-And last but not least, scare our koreans friends, by arresting top executives of a very well known multinational like if they were drug dealers.

and that would be the only country in the world who does this??? or are we "human rights" watcher week??

The list goes on. I mean : respect ! What other country could compete against such a firework of brillant ideas ?

let me guess..... your business is not doing so well or you are having a hard time.. and its all the Thais fault.

Edited September 8, 2007 by highdiver

[highdiver]

Opinion

That nationwide motorcycle sales from January to July of this year were down 16 per cent from the same period last year, as reported in the August 30 edition of Krungthep Turakij, will come as a surprise only to those in the business who felt the drop to be steeper.

if there is one thing that is too much is mottorbikes...

however the drop in motorbike sales is contrated by the very high increase in pickups. not passenger cars but pickups.

it seesm rural thailand is moving up from motorbikes to pickups.

[palm]

Opinion

That nationwide motorcycle sales from January to July of this year were down 16 per cent from the same period last year, as reported in the August 30 edition of Krungthep Turakij, will come as a surprise only to those in the business who felt the drop to be steeper.

if there is one thing that is too much is mottorbikes...

however the drop in motorbike sales is contrated by the very high increase in pickups. not passenger cars but pickups.

it seesm rural thailand is moving up from motorbikes to pickups.

What's laughable is most of the negative foreigner posters on here couldn't even afford to buy a motorbike here in the first place without breaking out into a cold sweat.

Maybe we can start a 'Falang Charity Shop' for all of the bitter foreigners who despise the idea of Thais having MUCH more money than them; owning new cars and pickups, owning large houses and condos etc.

I've never been in a country where the foreigner population contains so many drop-outs, bums, neer-do-wells and losers.

[ray23]

Well one thing for sure it would appear that immigration certainly agrees with your assesment of the farrang poulation.

[Mid]

Opinion

That nationwide motorcycle sales from January to July of this year were down 16 per cent from the same period last year, as reported in the August 30 edition of Krungthep Turakij, will come as a surprise only to those in the business who felt the drop to be steeper.

if there is one thing that is too much is mottorbikes...

however the drop in motorbike sales is contrated by the very high increase in pickups. not passenger cars but pickups.

it seesm rural thailand is moving up from motorbikes to pickups.

What's laughable is most of the negative foreigner posters on here couldn't even afford to buy a motorbike here in the first place without breaking out into a cold sweat.

Maybe we can start a 'Falang Charity Shop' for all of the bitter foreigners who despise the idea of Thais having MUCH more money than them; owning new cars and pickups, owning large houses and condos etc.

I've never been in a country where the foreigner population contains so many drop-outs, bums, neer-do-wells and losers.

two of the most ignorant and arrogant posters continue to display their combined ignorance .............

pick up sales domestically have also declined ,

and Palms knowledge of the gender of the Governor of the BOT is legendary ...........................