The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[bingobongo]

my dear mdeland, you and the rainbows and lollipops brigade seem to think that it is your duty to be defenders of the realm, but sadly it is not. you may be able to sway the naive and the "hope to get rich gang", but i am not one of those.

you are a member of a small group of mere posters on this board who are completely unobjective to LOS as perhaps you live there or enjoyed a holiday at one time. i primarily post in 2 sections, those related to the economy in general and in real estate (with an odd posting in other thread here and there). my posts are meant to show the BROAD impact of the current environment across a wide range of Thai businesses. while yours merely tout fairy dust and unicorns, so who is doing a greater disservice, you or me?

i have no problem with Thailand's weather, the people, or the food. however, as an investor in global markets, I will not be like some naive "sheeple" and be separated from my earnings for the sake of blind loyality to a country that is disintegrating politcally and economicaly. perhaps your biasness comes from living in LOS too long or familial ties, who knows. the first rule in investing is to never get emotional about money. remember mdeland, emotions are just feelings and not calls to action. just becasue thailand (or its people, thai girl, som tham, etc) makes you feel good, does not mean you should throw money into Thailand at the moment.

mdeland, you always post with such loyal ferver and devotion in spite of obvious turmoil that it is pathological in nature. Thailand has it pluses, but from an investor standpoint, there are none at this moment. I will be happy to invest in thailand, but not under the current draconian conditions. there is more to life than thailand and better places to put my money for my future as well as my family. emotions are for friends and family, not locations and investment decisions.

Edited May 18, 2007 by bingobongo

[Naam]

Thailand has it pluses, but from an investor standpoint, there are none at this moment.

i humbly beg to differ. the coin has two sides and it depends on the perspective. Thailand has two big pluses for an investor. one is the ability to live a luxurious lifestyle for a fraction of the amount needed in other countries (in my case all expenses are paid for by the savings on income and/or capital gains tax), and in this context the other plus is that no taxman exists who pokes around, raids homes or taps the phone.

i agree however that any direct investment in Thailand which is not traded offshore with ample liquidity is hardly of any interest. an exception is perhaps a private residence. but that's just my personal view.

[highdiver]

Thailand has it pluses, but from an investor standpoint, there are none at this moment.

i humbly beg to differ. the coin has two sides and it depends on the perspective. Thailand has two big pluses for an investor. one is the ability to live a luxurious lifestyle for a fraction of the amount needed in other countries (in my case all expenses are paid for by the savings on income and/or capital gains tax), and in this context the other plus is that no taxman exists who pokes around, raids homes or taps the phone.

i agree however that any direct investment in Thailand which is not traded offshore with ample liquidity is hardly of any interest. an exception is perhaps a private residence. but that's just my personal view.

I second and support that opinion.

at leat someone who knows what he is taking about.

and as for those"thai bashing dooms day" brigade... have a reality check... a real one.

if the thailand is in such a bad state why is money pouring in? why is there sucha huge surplus.

why is Ford setting up a billion dollar facility?

why are investors in real estate buying huge projects? AI joint venture just bought a huge building in BK for an investment of over 50 mill USD!!!

why is Phuket so full you can get a room? try book a room for new year?

why are hotel prices going up?

there was a refrence to Lehman Brothers before and how they are making excuses. howver they just invested over 100mil USD in getting property in Samui and are in negotiaitions for a huge project in BKK.

So lets do understand. multi national corporations are investing in Thailand, money is pouring in, projects in Koh Samui are growing like mushrooms after a freah rain. Leaman brothers, one of the worlds largest investment houses is vvery positive but you guys are convinced that the Thai econmy is going down..

An international investor and real estate :D together with a drug comapny sales man that has mixed fiction and facts are saying that all those positive indicators are worthless and only articles in the nation are the facts ..

when actual debate with facts take place I never see your replies only "daily harvest" of more articles or a dismisal of the facts with personal flaming.

the fact that investors and speculators are investing in other countries in the region is great. it has nothing to do with Thailand. each country has to take care of its own interests and Thais have to look out for Thailand.

if you wish to discuss the dangers those countris are facing from such excesive growth then lets do.

if you guys wish to discuss economy then lets do debate the economy.

if you guys are sooooo Smart please lets do have your opinions on hard facts.

the bigest problem Thailand has now is how to controll this overflow with out loosing controll.

I have posted before the Thai dilema of the BOT but you gus never responded... maybe you did not understand it.

I am posting it again in hope that the "thai bashing dooms day" brigade... can realy debate the issue.

So what should the BOT do??? The policy dilemma in these case are as follows:

- The country could let the inflow lead to an appreciation of its currency; but such appreciation may become excessive, lead to a competitiveness loss and worsen the external balance.

- The country can perform unsterilized forex interventions but such intervention increase the money supply, reduce domestic interest rates and may lead to an overheating of the economy that is dangerous

- The country can perform sterilized forex intervention but such sterilization - by keeping domestic short rates high and unchanged - leads to further inflows and further need to sterilize in an endless cycle that does not stop the capital inflow.

- The country could implement a fiscal contraction so as to reduce domestic rates (and induce less inflows) and so as to improve the external balance. But such fiscal contraction - in a country without fiscal problems - is politically unpopular and not likely. Also, deficit reduction may paradoxically lead to more inflows if it improves a country creditworthiness.

- Finally, since all the previous alternatives have shortcomings, the country can introduce controls on capital inflows, especially short-term hot money inflows that are potentially dangerous as such hot money can rush out as fast at they rush in. Such controls on short-term inflows is what countries such as Chile, Colombia, Brazil (and, effectively, even China) introduces as a way to minimize the risks of hot money inflows. And this is what Thailand tried too.

given the dilemas above what do you think they should have done??

[palm]

Thailand has it pluses, but from an investor standpoint, there are none at this moment.

i humbly beg to differ. the coin has two sides and it depends on the perspective. Thailand has two big pluses for an investor. one is the ability to live a luxurious lifestyle for a fraction of the amount needed in other countries (in my case all expenses are paid for by the savings on income and/or capital gains tax), and in this context the other plus is that no taxman exists who pokes around, raids homes or taps the phone.

i agree however that any direct investment in Thailand which is not traded offshore with ample liquidity is hardly of any interest. an exception is perhaps a private residence. but that's just my personal view.

Dr. Naam is spot on again.

[Prakanong]

Thailand has it pluses, but from an investor standpoint, there are none at this moment.

i humbly beg to differ. the coin has two sides and it depends on the perspective. Thailand has two big pluses for an investor. one is the ability to live a luxurious lifestyle for a fraction of the amount needed in other countries (in my case all expenses are paid for by the savings on income and/or capital gains tax), and in this context the other plus is that no taxman exists who pokes around, raids homes or taps the phone.

i agree however that any direct investment in Thailand which is not traded offshore with ample liquidity is hardly of any interest. an exception is perhaps a private residence. but that's just my personal view.

I second and support that opinion.

at leat someone who knows what he is taking about.

and as for those"thai bashing dooms day" brigade... have a reality check... a real one.

if the thailand is in such a bad state why is money pouring in? why is there sucha huge surplus.

why is Ford setting up a billion dollar facility?

why are investors in real estate buying huge projects? AI joint venture just bought a huge building in BK for an investment of over 50 mill USD!!!

why is Phuket so full you can get a room? try book a room for new year?

why are hotel prices going up?

there was a refrence to Lehman Brothers before and how they are making excuses. howver they just invested over 100mil USD in getting property in Samui and are in negotiaitions for a huge project in BKK.

So lets do understand. multi national corporations are investing in Thailand, money is pouring in, projects in Koh Samui are growing like mushrooms after a freah rain. Leaman brothers, one of the worlds largest investment houses is vvery positive but you guys are convinced that the Thai econmy is going down..

An international investor and real estate :D together with a drug comapny sales man that has mixed fiction and facts are saying that all those positive indicators are worthless and only articles in the nation are the facts ..

when actual debate with facts take place I never see your replies only "daily harvest" of more articles or a dismisal of the facts with personal flaming.

the fact that investors and speculators are investing in other countries in the region is great. it has nothing to do with Thailand. each country has to take care of its own interests and Thais have to look out for Thailand.

if you wish to discuss the dangers those countris are facing from such excesive growth then lets do.

if you guys wish to discuss economy then lets do debate the economy.

if you guys are sooooo Smart please lets do have your opinions on hard facts.

the bigest problem Thailand has now is how to controll this overflow with out loosing controll.

I have posted before the Thai dilema of the BOT but you gus never responded... maybe you did not understand it.

I am posting it again in hope that the "thai bashing dooms day" brigade... can realy debate the issue.

So what should the BOT do??? The policy dilemma in these case are as follows:

- The country could let the inflow lead to an appreciation of its currency; but such appreciation may become excessive, lead to a competitiveness loss and worsen the external balance.

- The country can perform unsterilized forex interventions but such intervention increase the money supply, reduce domestic interest rates and may lead to an overheating of the economy that is dangerous

- The country can perform sterilized forex intervention but such sterilization - by keeping domestic short rates high and unchanged - leads to further inflows and further need to sterilize in an endless cycle that does not stop the capital inflow.

- The country could implement a fiscal contraction so as to reduce domestic rates (and induce less inflows) and so as to improve the external balance. But such fiscal contraction - in a country without fiscal problems - is politically unpopular and not likely. Also, deficit reduction may paradoxically lead to more inflows if it improves a country creditworthiness.

- Finally, since all the previous alternatives have shortcomings, the country can introduce controls on capital inflows, especially short-term hot money inflows that are potentially dangerous as such hot money can rush out as fast at they rush in. Such controls on short-term inflows is what countries such as Chile, Colombia, Brazil (and, effectively, even China) introduces as a way to minimize the risks of hot money inflows. And this is what Thailand tried too.

given the dilemas above what do you think they should have done??

Did you read my posts when I said there was no crisis or are you just too stupid as your writing indicates?

Google the BOT alternatives did you?

Learn to spell the language first then discuss google boy. Stick to trying to scrat a living in Samui johnny come lately - got a visa yet?

Salesman indeed ;-))))

Edited May 18, 2007 by Prakanong

[Jai Dee]

Thailand's economic prospects still looking good

Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras (โฆษิต ปั้นเปี่ยมรัษฎ์) affirms the image of the Thai economy is still looking bright.

However, Mr. Kosit has expressed concern over the economic situation in the deep South, adding that the government is implementing to issue budget plan for the next year.

The plan is aimed to facilitate the disbursement of budgets for three southernmost provinces.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 18 May 2007

[highdiver]

Thailand has it pluses, but from an investor standpoint, there are none at this moment.

i humbly beg to differ. the coin has two sides and it depends on the perspective. Thailand has two big pluses for an investor. one is the ability to live a luxurious lifestyle for a fraction of the amount needed in other countries (in my case all expenses are paid for by the savings on income and/or capital gains tax), and in this context the other plus is that no taxman exists who pokes around, raids homes or taps the phone.

i agree however that any direct investment in Thailand which is not traded offshore with ample liquidity is hardly of any interest. an exception is perhaps a private residence. but that's just my personal view.

I second and support that opinion.

at leat someone who knows what he is taking about.

and as for those"thai bashing dooms day" brigade... have a reality check... a real one.

if the thailand is in such a bad state why is money pouring in? why is there sucha huge surplus.

why is Ford setting up a billion dollar facility?

why are investors in real estate buying huge projects? AI joint venture just bought a huge building in BK for an investment of over 50 mill USD!!!

why is Phuket so full you can get a room? try book a room for new year?

why are hotel prices going up?

there was a refrence to Lehman Brothers before and how they are making excuses. howver they just invested over 100mil USD in getting property in Samui and are in negotiaitions for a huge project in BKK.

So lets do understand. multi national corporations are investing in Thailand, money is pouring in, projects in Koh Samui are growing like mushrooms after a freah rain. Leaman brothers, one of the worlds largest investment houses is vvery positive but you guys are convinced that the Thai econmy is going down..

An international investor and real estate :D together with a drug comapny sales man that has mixed fiction and facts are saying that all those positive indicators are worthless and only articles in the nation are the facts ..

when actual debate with facts take place I never see your replies only "daily harvest" of more articles or a dismisal of the facts with personal flaming.

the fact that investors and speculators are investing in other countries in the region is great. it has nothing to do with Thailand. each country has to take care of its own interests and Thais have to look out for Thailand.

if you wish to discuss the dangers those countris are facing from such excesive growth then lets do.

if you guys wish to discuss economy then lets do debate the economy.

if you guys are sooooo Smart please lets do have your opinions on hard facts.

the bigest problem Thailand has now is how to controll this overflow with out loosing controll.

I have posted before the Thai dilema of the BOT but you gus never responded... maybe you did not understand it.

I am posting it again in hope that the "thai bashing dooms day" brigade... can realy debate the issue.

So what should the BOT do??? The policy dilemma in these case are as follows:

- The country could let the inflow lead to an appreciation of its currency; but such appreciation may become excessive, lead to a competitiveness loss and worsen the external balance.

- The country can perform unsterilized forex interventions but such intervention increase the money supply, reduce domestic interest rates and may lead to an overheating of the economy that is dangerous

- The country can perform sterilized forex intervention but such sterilization - by keeping domestic short rates high and unchanged - leads to further inflows and further need to sterilize in an endless cycle that does not stop the capital inflow.

- The country could implement a fiscal contraction so as to reduce domestic rates (and induce less inflows) and so as to improve the external balance. But such fiscal contraction - in a country without fiscal problems - is politically unpopular and not likely. Also, deficit reduction may paradoxically lead to more inflows if it improves a country creditworthiness.

- Finally, since all the previous alternatives have shortcomings, the country can introduce controls on capital inflows, especially short-term hot money inflows that are potentially dangerous as such hot money can rush out as fast at they rush in. Such controls on short-term inflows is what countries such as Chile, Colombia, Brazil (and, effectively, even China) introduces as a way to minimize the risks of hot money inflows. And this is what Thailand tried too.

given the dilemas above what do you think they should have done??

Did you read my posts when I said there was no crisis or are you just too stupid as your writing indicates?

Google the BOT alternatives did you?

Learn to spell the language first then discuss google boy. Stick to trying to scrat a living in Samui johnny come lately - got a visa yet?

Salesman indeed ;-))))

so once again you choose not address the issue.

first I would like to put you mind at ease.. i am very happy in samui in my 80milion baht beach front home.. my investments are doing great and the only thing that disturbs me is the wind conditions for the Regatta. and yes I dont need a visa as I have a redisents card for the pat 7 years.

I am sorry my spelling is not great as I am disgraphic... and you know its not nice to make fun of people.

I know it must be hard for you and all so I will explain slowly.

you... need to follow the ... debate...... please.... adress ....the.... issues. please check ... your ... facts ...before you post!!!

now be a good boy and take your mediaction...

It is never too late to be what you might have been..

[Jai Dee]

Please keep the personal attacks and flames out of this thread, thank you.

[underbob]

regarding the story quoted here '...a possible reduction in the special business tax of 3.3 per cent, the transfer tax of 2 per cent and the one-per-cent mortgage fee'?

I was told the reduction of transfer tax was only for 2nd hand properties - not new developments but I would think it's for both ...you have any idea?

[Prakanong]

Sorry for the way this is formatted but this is the latest view from the Asiamonito put out by BMI

Thai Baht Still Strong,

Outlook Positive

BMI View: The imposition and subsequent partial repeal of December’s draconian

capital controls, and the investor-hostile amendments to the Foreign Business Act that

followed in January, have had no lasting effect on the baht’s continued appreciation.

At THB34.51/US$ (onshore) on May 11,

the unit’s unrelenting rise has brought it

close to a ten-year high as it managed to

coolly disregard the surrounding political

noise. Support exists at THB34.60/US$,

but an anticipated increase in equity inflows

should act as a cushion – particularly as the

SETI has underperformed for much of the

past twelve months, relative to other Asian

markets. We therefore expect the unit to

push forward in the short term, although

uncertainty surrounding the upcoming

constitutional referendum and December’s

elections should beget a pull-back to around

THB35.00/US$ by year-end.

Core View – Intensified political turbulence

during H207 accounts for our cautious medium-

term view towards the baht, but we

remain long-term bullish. Encouragingly,

by the end of 2006 the unit broke through a

five-year trading range, and we believe the

baht will resume its upward trend, towards

the THB32.00/US$ level, after a period of

political consolidation in H108.

September’s coup initiated a period of

uncertainty, and the resulting administrative

instability – and subsequent resignation

of former finance minister Pridiyathorn

Devakula – has given us ample reason

to worry. However, Thailand remains a

favourite destination for foreign investors

and companies wary of the country’s more

corrupt neighbours (such as Indonesia and

the Philippines), who are eager to take advantage

of a growing domestic market and

low-cost environment. In addition, investors

use Thailand as a springboard into south

east Asia. Looking beyond 2007, we are

confident that renewed investor interest in

Thailand will propel the currency forward.

In addition, there are two core developments

to support our bullish view. Firstly,

interest rates started to decline in 2007,

kicking off a cycle of monetary easing that

should foster a more positive growth environment.

By increasing profit potential, this

should ensure a rise in investor sentiment.

Moreover, CPI dipped to 1.8% y-o-y in April

– its lowest level since January 2004 – so

real interest rates are comfortably positive.

Secondly, the external sector remains supportive,

for now. Exports surged by 19%

y-o-y in March, leading to a trade surplus of

US$2.2bn. And even though we anticipate

a trade deficit by the end of the year, as

global demand diminishes, we expect the

current account to remain in the black. We

are forecasting a current account surplus of

US$5.1bn in 2007.

Risks To Outlook – The medium-term

political picture is still somewhat fraught.

An election tentatively scheduled for Q407

poses a risk, as questions surrounding political

party structures and the constitution

remain unanswered. The Bank of Thailand

is cognisant of rising discomfort over THB

strength, and although recent measures to

stem speculation have failed, the central

bank’s more conventional efforts to rein in

the currency through lower interest rates,

although supportive in the long term, could

also limit the currency’s upward potential as

speculative inflows may reverse direction.

[Prakanong]

This is the BMI outlook and the Official view rm the same report above today

BMI View: With Q406 GDP recording the

lowest growth rate in almost two years,

continuing a trend of deceleration, the economic

outlook for Thailand is dim. Against a

backdrop of political unrest and a number of

policy gaffes, which have served to weaken

consumer and business sentiment, we have

revised Thailand’s GDP growth forecast to

4.0% in 2007, from 4.4%. The economy’s

overall performance should improve by

the end of the year as confidence returns,

but only if progress is made on the political

front.

Official View: The Bank of Thailand has

reduced its 2007 GDP forecast range to 3.8-

4.8% from 4.0-5.0%, due to slowing external

demand and ongoing political uncertainty.

The government’s failure to speed budget

expenditure and boost business confidence

through infrastructure spending has also

been highlighted as a key risk.

[jumnien]

"Crisis" is a relative term. While Thailand's economy is perhaps not as stable as Switzerland's, Thailand is not in a "crisis" such as that in Sudan. I do apologize if I have not appear in the past to have taken people's worries and concerns seriously. But, over the years, I've done well investing in Thai assets as well as assets in other countries. I guess I just have a bit higher risk level than some folks. That said, I never put many eggs in one basket. I am highly appreciative of having invested rather heavily in Thailand over the last 5 years. It has allowed me to sell many of my Thai assets for high dollar profits which allows me not to have to bring weak dollars over to fund new ventures.

To be clear, I don't recommend investing now or ever in Thailand your last dollar or even 50% of your net worth. However, I see many opportunities for profit at the moment in Thailand. If I had euros instead of dollars abroad, I'd be buying more property right now than I already am.

As for someone who accused me of painting Thailand with a "rainbow" brush, I am one of the more viscious and vociferous critics of the current "administration" on TV forum.

[llothar]

why are investors in real estate buying huge projects? AI joint venture just bought a huge building in BK for an investment of over 50 mill USD!!!

why is Phuket so full you can get a room? try book a room for new year?

why are hotel prices going up?

there was a refrence to Lehman Brothers before and how they are making excuses. howver they just invested over 100mil USD in getting property in Samui and are in negotiaitions for a huge project in BKK.

So lets do understand. multi national corporations are investing in Thailand, money is pouring in, projects in Koh Samui are growing like mushrooms after a freah rain. Leaman brothers, one of the worlds largest investment houses is vvery positive but you guys are convinced that the Thai econmy is going down..

I don't believe this <deleted>. At the moment i don't see a high percentage of the real-estate investments being profitable and i don't know who they ever will. If you know anything else then the marketing-propaganda of a salesman, you know that the history is full of this stupid stuff (in many countries and on many continents).

In 1996 everybody was building like crazy and selling like crazy but only to others agents not to customers, and then 1997 they realized this => crash.

Just that people invest in something has not any meaning in long term calculations, just that there are unethical ways to make money.

[ray23]

Isn't the idea buy low sell high? Of course they seem to leave out the part about how to recognize that. At the moment as a non informed person I don't see anything all that low at the moment, in Thialand. Add the fact theat my retirement is in dollars, nothing is erally looking all that rosey at the moment.

I'm not a doom and gloom person nor do I look at the world with rise colored glasses. Trying to get an understanding of the siutuation is very difficult here. One reports read the sky is falling the same day another report reads everyting is wonderful. So being a somewhat reasonable person I can only beleive that somewhere between the two positions lies the truth, good or bad I have no idea.

Oh my godd the dollar is down but today hurray the Chinese currency is going to appreciate anyone notice that the states dont really seem to be worried about the dollars current decline. They don't seem to be doing much to bail it out. Why is that there are astute buiness people in the states just a other countries, must be a reason.

There are some business people in Thailand extremly worried about the baht appreciating and other would that would just love to see it go even higher, again more then likely at least some astute business poeple in both classes, why is that? Must be a reason.

Last question at the moment Thailand has a huge budget surplus, as I understand it part of the reason the baht keeps going up. You don't have to be a brain surgoen to realize that some of that come from the government not spending money. The local economy in theory is slowing because of that. What happens when they open the flood gates as they were doing before?

I lied what will happen with the bah value and the Thai Stock market?

Ok that was the last question I promise

[bingobongo]

for those looking to the SET as proof that things are great (aka Lehman, SET analysts, brokers) despite Thailand in a tailspin.......

cclub75 posted a great article (in this thread) about trading volume collapsing, if you also notice, MOST markets are moving up around the world, this is the last great inflationary uptick..

i leave you with the following, replace DOW with SET and you will get the point, have a great weekend everybody

Edited May 18, 2007 by bingobongo

[ray23]

This is exactly what I'm talking about only been a few days ago that I read that condo sales were booming. So wher is the reality OOPS that was another question wasn't it. See I have lots of questions but not many answers thus far.

Property-sector slump blamed on policy uncertainty

Visitors look for bargains from property firms and financial institutions at the 16th House and Condo Show at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Centre yesterday.

The value of the property market slumped by up to 20 per cent or Bt10 billion in the first four months of the year, due to political uncertainty and unclear economic policies under the interim government.

According to the Thai Condominium Association's president Atip Bijanonda, there is purchasing power for both detached houses and condominiums, but most home-buyers have delayed their decisions to buy because they have no confidence in the government's policies.

"They are adopting a wait-and-see attitude. They are not certain if the policies will drive the economy or not and they are also waiting to see if the government launches tax measures. As a result, transactions have dropped by 20 per cent or Bt10 billion," Atip said, adding that last year transactions totalled Bt50 billion in the same period.

He said the drop would not only hurt developers but related sectors such as mortgages, construction materials, construction services, home electronics, advertising and others.

"If the government has no policy to boost the property market, it should have policies to drive the economy as a whole. The property market - with combined value of Bt200 billion a year - is important as it also helps related businesses generate revenue of nearly Bt100 billion a year," Atip said.

Due to sluggish sales, most property developers have revised down their sales targets this year by 10-30 per cent.

Metrostar Property's managing director Ratanachai Phatinavin said the company had adjusted its presales estimate from Bt3 billion this year to Bt2 billion. This will reduce its revenue from Bt1.4 billion to Bt1 billion.

The Finance Ministry is expected to temporarily cut property transfer fees as well as mortgage registration fees in an effort to boost the market.

The Revenue Department's director-general Sanit Rangnoi estimated that around Bt5 billion to Bt6 billion in revenue would be shaved off if specific business tax, a form of value-added tax levied on property companies, was reduced from 3.3 per cent to 0.11 per cent.

Another Bt600 million would disappear if the government allowed taxpayers to deduct from their taxable income the mortgage interest burden of up to Bt100,000 per annum, from Bt50,000 at present, he calculated.

Yesterday, three property associations - the Thai Condominium Association, the Thai Real Estate Association and the Housing Business Association - opened the 16th House and Condo Show, which will run until Sunday.

Around 600 property projects worth up to Bt12 billion are on show as developers seek to boost sales in the second quarter. Atip said the event organiser expected up to 100,000 visitors and sales worth up to Bt3 billion from the four-day event.

Many firms are offering discounts worth between Bt200,000 and Bt600,000.

Somluck Srimalee

The Nation

[ray23]

Just minutes and a much different spin from the Bangkok so again where is the reality. Now to me unless your very sharp his doen't seem like a great place to be investing at the moment. People who are adept at seeing through the smoke and mirrors, probably are in a very good postion at the moment, I'm not one of them

PROPERTY / MARKETING & PROMOTION

Bargains offered as companies clear stocks

KANANA KATHARANGSIPORN

Developers are trying to clear housing stocks by offering discounts and free furniture at the 16th Home and Condominium Fair at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center until Sunday. Most of the condominiums on offer have already been launched and are suffering from slow sales.

There has also been a significant drop in condominiums developed by new companies because financial institutions are stricter about releasing project finance, said Kittisak Jampathippong, deputy CEO of the property brokerage Harrison.

Harrison is offering 15 condominiums at the fair with only two new ones launched. They are

[bingobongo]

is this a rainbow or lollipop?

well done, well done...and the tailspin continues........

FIRST-QUARTER RESULTS

Listed firms post big fall in Q1 earnings

21% profit drop for SET, MAI companies; resources sector performs best

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/05/19...ss_30034590.php

[ThaiGoon]

From the same the Nation link above (ie what really happened):

"The lower year-on-year first-quarter earnings could be ascribed to a 7-per-cent increase in selling costs but a 5-per-cent increase in sales revenue. Average gross profit margin fell from 21 per cent in the same period last year to 20 per cent, while gains from foreign exchange slumped 55 per cent. The increase in lending rates earlier raised interest-rate expenses by 8 per cent on average. Besides, banks in the period set aside additional provision to comply with the International Accounting Standard 39," said SET president Patareeya Benjapholchai.

• 5-per-cent increase in sales revenue
  
• gains from foreign exchange slumped 55 per cent
  
• The increase in lending rates
  

Oh no! The sky is falling! The economy is collapsing and everyone in Thailand will finally be as dirt poor, miserable and bitter as some people on here. ;-)))))

Edited May 18, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[cclub75]

From the same the Nation link above (ie what really happened):

"The lower year-on-year first-quarter earnings could be ascribed to a 7-per-cent increase in selling costs but a 5-per-cent increase in sales revenue. Average gross profit margin fell from 21 per cent in the same period last year to 20 per cent, while gains from foreign exchange slumped 55 per cent. The increase in lending rates earlier raised interest-rate expenses by 8 per cent on average. Besides, banks in the period set aside additional provision to comply with the International Accounting Standard 39," said SET president Patareeya Benjapholchai.

• 5-per-cent increase in sales revenue
  
• gains from foreign exchange slumped 55 per cent
  
• The increase in lending rates
  

Oh no! The sky is falling! The economy is collapsing and everyone in Thailand will finally be as dirt poor, miserable and bitter as some people on here. ;-)))))

You have indeed a strange way to understand finance.

Loss in foreign exchange or higher interests expenses due to higher interest rates are all coming onto the "bottom line", and can make a loss. Even if your sales increase of 5, or 10 or 50 %. It's irrelevant, from an accounting point of view.

A loss is a loss. Even... in Thailand.

I should add that the idea to explain a loss with a plunge in foreign exchange gains, like an excuse, is rather pathetic.

A company that would make the bulk of its profit with... foreign exchange gains, would not be a healthy company.

Do we need to understand that the comfortable profits of thai listed companies last year... were coming from... gains in foreign exchange ?

Edited May 18, 2007 by cclub75

[ThaiGoon]

From the same the Nation link above (ie what really happened):

"The lower year-on-year first-quarter earnings could be ascribed to a 7-per-cent increase in selling costs but a 5-per-cent increase in sales revenue. Average gross profit margin fell from 21 per cent in the same period last year to 20 per cent, while gains from foreign exchange slumped 55 per cent. The increase in lending rates earlier raised interest-rate expenses by 8 per cent on average. Besides, banks in the period set aside additional provision to comply with the International Accounting Standard 39," said SET president Patareeya Benjapholchai.

• 5-per-cent increase in sales revenue
  
• gains from foreign exchange slumped 55 per cent
  
• The increase in lending rates
  

Oh no! The sky is falling! The economy is collapsing and everyone in Thailand will finally be as dirt poor, miserable and bitter as some people on here. ;-)))))

You have indeed a strange way to understand finance.

Loss in foreign exchange or higher interests expenses due to higher interest rates are all coming onto the "bottom line", and can make a loss. Even if your sales increase of 5, or 10 or 50 %. It's irrelevant, from an accounting point of view.

A loss is a loss. Even... in Thailand.

I was trying to point out that the sales revenue was up, and it was all other factors that contributed to the loss. And this is hardly an indication that the economy is in crisis. I wasn't saying that it was not a loss. Understood now?

If this is still hard to grasp, please ask again. I'll try to explain it in the simplest way my broken english would alllow.

[cclub75]

I was trying to point out that the sales revenue was up, and it was all other factors that contributed to the loss. And this is hardly an indication that the economy is in crisis. I wasn't saying that it was not a loss. Understood now?

I should stick your comment on my wall, like a reminder and to relax my zygomatic muscles ! Thank you.

You have just invented a new way to read financial results.

Try to think a bit beyond... An accounting loss, means less taxes paid, less dividends given to the shareholders, etc... This is not a fiction. This is clearly a sign of crisis. To pretend the contrary is just amazing.

Last point, the famous increase of sale of 5% you are referring to.... Do you know the word "inflation" ?

.... Bingo. Now it's your turn to understand.

Sorry.

Edited May 18, 2007 by cclub75

[ThaiGoon]

By the way, yesterday the stock market responded to this news by closing at 728.76 up 4.39 (highest since the implementation of the capital controls in December of last year.) Looks like it will soon reach 740, the level SET was before all the mess.

[ThaiGoon]

I was trying to point out that the sales revenue was up, and it was all other factors that contributed to the loss. And this is hardly an indication that the economy is in crisis. I wasn't saying that it was not a loss. Understood now?

I should stick your comment on my wall, like a reminder and to relax my zygomatic muscles ! Thank you.

You have just invented a new way to read financial results.

Try to think a bit beyond... An accounting loss, means less taxes paid, less dividends given to the shareholders, etc... This is not a fiction. This is clearly a sign of crisis. To pretend the contrary is just amazing.

Last point, the famous increase of sale of 5% you are referring to.... Do you know the word "inflation" ?

.... Bingo. Now it's your turn to understand.

Sorry.

I understand that some people might have a psychological need and are very desperate to see other people in Thailand be as broke, sad, miserable, and bitter as they are. But ones need to understand that there's quite a difference between an economic downturn and an economic crisis.

Thai economy on its own can comfortably grow at around 5% every year. The fact that this year it still might be growing at around 4% despite all the problems actually does highlight how fundamentally strong and resilient Thai economy is. So it would take quite a lot before everyone in Thailand will all be broke, sad, miserable and bitter.

And Cclub75, acoording to BoT, last year's inflation was about 4.7% and in the first quarter of this year it's 2.4%. So the growth of 5% in revenue wasn't really all that bad. I hope this is all understood now.

[sbk]

Glad to see an intelligent conversation can be had without resorting to nastiness, name calling or flaming

Let's be sure to keep it that way

[ThaiGoon]

A crisis was when an economy contracted by something like 10% in a year. It's not when the revenue grows by 5% (while the inflation is between 2.4%-4.7%) and the GDP growth is about 3-4%. (GDP growth is always inflation adjusted by the way. )

[highdiver]

A crisis was when an economy contracted by something like 10% in a year. It's not when the revenue grows by 5% (while the inflation is between 2.4%-4.7%) and the GDP growth is about 3-4%. (GDP growth is always inflation adjusted by the way. )

absoulutly right.

[palm]

A crisis was when an economy contracted by something like 10% in a year. It's not when the revenue grows by 5% (while the inflation is between 2.4%-4.7%) and the GDP growth is about 3-4%. (GDP growth is always inflation adjusted by the way. )

Yes, but you are bashing your head against the wall with those guys. The types who'd only be happy if Thailand performed like North Korea.

When an economy has some troubles, its always those without any financial security, assets or stable income who squeal first.

Meanwhile, everyone else continues making money, and increasing their net worth.

[Flysiam]

A crisis was when an economy contracted by something like 10% in a year. It's not when the revenue grows by 5% (while the inflation is between 2.4%-4.7%) and the GDP growth is about 3-4%. (GDP growth is always inflation adjusted by the way. )

Yes, but you are bashing your head against the wall with those guys. The types who'd only be happy if Thailand performed like North Korea.

When an economy has some troubles, its always those without any financial security, assets or stable income who squeal first.

Meanwhile, everyone else continues making money, and increasing their net worth.

Just curious - you think that someone that has no financial security is any less a person and governments and people should not be concerned about those people?

I feel sorry fo the least of them that have no stable income, assets, or financial security. They may have contributed to their own position but more likely than not they are playing the game with the cards they were dealt.

On the other hand I look upon those of substance that puff their chests out and have no concern for others and their state with some level of contempt. To be such are almost less than human. The derogatory comments, flaming and one-up-manship that goes on here is pathetic. Which category do you fallinto - I have made my opinion base don what I have seen already.

No one wants to see the demise of Thailand or its economy but they certainly have the right to lament that their assets - whatever they may be - have decreased by a sizeable amount due to the economy in general and maybe even some actions by the Thai government.

[Prakanong]

A crisis was when an economy contracted by something like 10% in a year. It's not when the revenue grows by 5% (while the inflation is between 2.4%-4.7%) and the GDP growth is about 3-4%. (GDP growth is always inflation adjusted by the way. )

Yes, but you are bashing your head against the wall with those guys. The types who'd only be happy if Thailand performed like North Korea.

When an economy has some troubles, its always those without any financial security, assets or stable income who squeal first.

Meanwhile, everyone else continues making money, and increasing their net worth.

you have said it and I have said it - you can not look at your own situation and assess the Thai economy. The British economy. or outer monrovia's economy

There are standard economic indicators - you can interpret these and add a viewpoint but its pretty standard ascit should be so you can comopere allples with pears.

Some choose to hang on to the gloomier figures while others will see Thailand as a beacon of economic prosperity though the fog.

Its funny to watch the debate though -some of the correspondents are not too btright and are bairns at 2nd class schools