The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[cclub75]

Back to the topic gentlemen.

Day after day, we receive hard facts, figures.

But we shall not forget that the core of the problem is politics.

Chalongphob rules out cut in transfer fees

Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn yesterday dismissed suggestions that the government planned to cut land transfer and mortgage fees in a new stimulus programme for the property sector. ''Buyers who might have waited don't have to wait. Transfer and mortgage fees will not be changed,'' the minister said.

The statement contradicts comments made over the past week by Fiscal Policy Office staff and ministry advisers suggesting that a cut in transfer fees would be contained in the new stimulus package.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/19May2007_news05.php

Since a few weeks we are hearing about this famous "stimulus package". With contradictory informations. Nobody agree. And let me remind you that Chalongphob has replaced Pridiyathorn in february, 5 month after the Coup...

They are still talking about it. It's like the "megaprojects", fairy tale and red herring that is supposed to save our soul (and the asses of our leader, like Thaksin when he launched the idea).

Actually, since more than one year, since the dissolution, Thailand has no proper governement. The all state apparatus is in stand by mode.

Ans since September, it's even worse with a bunch of generals and sad clowns trying to take care of things that are beyond their comprehension.

And the worst : many people believe that "everything will be okay after the elections". At this point, it's not anymore a fairy tale : it's pure SCIFI. We are entering the twilight zone.

A very common mistake that investors and the public make is to unlink economy and politics.

It's impossible to think (even if your name is ThaiGoon) that the situation will improve on short or mid term. The political situation is way too volatile and dangerous.

I said it many times, but it's important to repeat it : Thailand will face in the future a major political event. The time line is not known of course. But all the power plays we see since 1 year are related to this event.

Until this event occur and the situation cool down, you can be sure that economy will drag its feets... because we won't have a proper gvt.

[ray23]

Well this politic side of life unfrotuanltely I see some real truth in that. Just look at the politics going on to create a Constitution. Everybody wants there little nitch in life taken care of. I don't think that is the real idea behind a Constitution.

Back to the economy it does do good I have assests here, it does bad well my money is worth more. I hope for good for the country and the Thai people that I know, but none of them are in the elite class in Thailand, so they could be in real jeopardy.

I'm not in jeopardy I have a passport and a life time retirement that will serve me here or anywhere else I live. This country has been good to me and I hope for good thing for it, but thats all I can do is hope. Beyond that I have enjoyed learning from people who obviously know more then I. So thank you guys for sharing you knowledge.

[wolfmanjack]

A crisis was when an economy contracted by something like 10% in a year. It's not when the revenue grows by 5% (while the inflation is between 2.4%-4.7%) and the GDP growth is about 3-4%. (GDP growth is always inflation adjusted by the way. )

Yes, but you are bashing your head against the wall with those guys. The types who'd only be happy if Thailand performed like North Korea.

When an economy has some troubles, its always those without any financial security, assets or stable income who squeal first.

Meanwhile, everyone else continues making money, and increasing their net worth.

Just curious - you think that someone that has no financial security is any less a person and governments and people should not be concerned about those people?

I feel sorry for the least of them that have no stable income, assets, or financial security. They may have contributed to their own position but more likely than not they are playing the game with the cards they were dealt.

On the other hand I look upon those of substance that puff their chests out and have no concern for others and their state with some level of contempt. To be such are almost less than human. The derogatory comments, flaming and one-up-manship that goes on here is pathetic. Which category do you fallinto - I have made my opinion base don what I have seen already.

No one wants to see the demise of Thailand or its economy but they certainly have the right to lament that their assets - whatever they may be - have decreased by a sizeable amount due to the economy in general and maybe even some actions by the Thai government.

I agree. The majority of the country is made up of poor people and small businesses. Neeranam has posted a chart on another thread that shows the baht in mid 2005 at 42 to the $ and decreasing to 31.8 to the $ in 2007. That is a significant increase to the cost of thai products in other countries. The packers and shippers I spoke with in chaing mai are down more than 50% in sales while the costs have increased. The attendance by buyers at trade shows in bkk are down significantly. One large clothing manufacturer closed his factory and went into real estate. Many ceramic companies are closing due to sales moving to china and vietnam. Handicrafts are being copied in indonesia and the buyers are the ones taking the samples there to be copied to save the money. I am told that rental prices at Jatuchak market are dropping. The banks are tightening credit for SME's. The commodities are based on US$ so the farmers are getting less baht. The poor people and the SME's are not benefiting from the strong baht.

[Mid]

the good news here for some is that those in rose coloured glasses retailing are doing very well , thank-you .....................

[wolfmanjack]

the good news here for some is that those in rose coloured glasses retailing are doing very well , thank-you .....................

My wife's family is in retail and they are still doing ok. They are selling products that people buy no matter what though. And they say that sales are down.

One thing about alcohol. People drink when they are happy to celebrate and people drink when they broke to drown their sorrows. The brand may change though.

[en184]

for an economy in crisis, there sure is alot of building activity going on.

In pattaya there is a waiting list for good contractors for renovation work.

There is even a 100 storey beach front residential tower being built.

The new airport seems pretty full to me.

And new roads and rail links are being built.

Crisis - what crisis?

[Sakeopete]

hello englishoak old friend, so much relevant news to "Thailand in Crisis" i may consider supergluing my fingers to the CTRL-C and CTRL- V buttons

so lets recap (check previous posts for info), I will sum up so you dont have to go thru 9 pages of this topic

Stronger baht - check

Declining oil imports (as of Q1, 2007) - check

Work halted on numerous property deverlopents - check

Declining property sales - check

Banks offering no interest/no closing cost loans for 3 months (Via teaser rates) - check

Furniture sales down - check

Auto sales down (again) - check

Housewares sales down again - check

BOT cutting rates to stimulate economy - check

Advertising spending declining - check

Incerase in short term speculative inflows - check

Thailand trailing all other economies in region - check

Economy slows on weaker domestic demand - check

Consumer confidene lowest in 5 years - check

Sony, Toshiba, Pioneer (electronics) report lower YOY demand - check

Thai Airways profits slump 31% - check

Thai Gross Domestic Happiness falling - check

Pawn Shop loans increasing - check

did i miss anything? you see, english oak, i am not making up reality, just conveying the truth that the Thai economy is taking it on the chin across a wide variety of industries

i will be sure to add to the list englishoak, at this pace i may need more than 1 sandwich board or should i say som tham board?

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't one of the best indicators of the Thai economy the sales of "Mama Soup"?

[palm]

A crisis was when an economy contracted by something like 10% in a year. It's not when the revenue grows by 5% (while the inflation is between 2.4%-4.7%) and the GDP growth is about 3-4%. (GDP growth is always inflation adjusted by the way. )

Yes, but you are bashing your head against the wall with those guys. The types who'd only be happy if Thailand performed like North Korea.

When an economy has some troubles, its always those without any financial security, assets or stable income who squeal first.

Meanwhile, everyone else continues making money, and increasing their net worth.

Just curious - you think that someone that has no financial security is any less a person and governments and people should not be concerned about those people?

I feel sorry fo the least of them that have no stable income, assets, or financial security. They may have contributed to their own position but more likely than not they are playing the game with the cards they were dealt.

On the other hand I look upon those of substance that puff their chests out and have no concern for others and their state with some level of contempt. To be such are almost less than human.

Hey, here we go again. Did I say I think people with less than me are any less a person? NO I DID NOT. As usual, you make things up; and its just absolutely pathetic.

Along with my GF, I directly/indirectly employ over FIFTY people in Thailand - and the majority of those people have families etc. I have great concern for our staff and for their families. We pay well over the Thai average in most cases (as we always try to employ the most skilled staff). I even pay our 18hrs a MONTH house cleaner 6,000 baht a month. Some of our staff we pay over 40,000 a month.

I have invested TENS OF MILLIONS of baht of my own money in Thailand in the past 30 months, and I don't see any significant reason not to continue.

According to your 'negative' friends, I should be investing elsewhere? Where exactly? Vietnam? Cambodia? Laos? Burma? Malaysia? Indonesia? China? That would be GREAT for our Thai staff - "bye bye, we're going to move manufacturing to Vietnam, even though its run by a communist government; but hey we can pay lower wages there."

Which of you negative people on here actually EMPLOY Thai people, run businesses here, or actually INVEST in this country? (beyond buying beers and poking bar girls). Or do you all play forex-Nintendo, or online poker for a living?

You see GDP forecasts slip by around 1% and you all wet your knickers. It's laughable. Meanwhile, we'll continue to try and find more decent staff, invest in land, property, machinery and staff and make some very substantial returns.

[Edonista]

for an economy in crisis, there sure is alot of building activity going on.

In pattaya there is a waiting list for good contractors for renovation work.

There is even a 100 storey beach front residential tower being built.

The new airport seems pretty full to me.

And new roads and rail links are being built.

Crisis - what crisis?

They have just announced they will build it, but they are not actually doing it.

A lot of construction is going around in Pattaya , but it was obviously started before 15 August (no land to farang companies), 15 September (Visa shake up) and 22 September (military coup).

Of course what was under construction will go ahead until completion (unless banks stop lending), but building does not mean selling.

[Edonista]

Along with my GF, I directly/indirectly employ over FIFTY people in Thailand - and the majority of those people have families etc. I have great concern for our staff and for their families. We pay well over the Thai average in most cases (as we always try to employ the most skilled staff). I even pay our 18hrs a MONTH house cleaner 6,000 baht a month. Some of our staff we pay over 40,000 a month.

My condolences.

I have invested TENS OF MILLIONS of baht of my own money in Thailand in the past 30 months, and I don't see any significant reason not to continue.

Again, my deepest condolences.

According to your 'negative' friends, I should be investing elsewhere? Where exactly? Vietnam? Cambodia? Laos? Burma? Malaysia? Indonesia? China? That would be GREAT for our Thai staff - "bye bye, we're going to move manufacturing to Vietnam, even though its run by a communist government; but hey we can pay lower wages there."

You seem not to understand that what is great for your gf and all her parents and friends you employed at inflated wages perhaps is not great for you and your wallet.

Anyway, it is common knowledge that in China and Vietnam wages are half those paid in Thailand and therefore many manufacturing firms prefer those countries to Thailand.

Which of you negative people on here actually EMPLOY Thai people, run businesses here, or actually INVEST in this country? (beyond buying beers and poking bar girls). Or do you all play forex-Nintendo, or online poker for a living?

Perhaps we do not have your money. Anyway if we had we for sure would not waste it investing in a place where you cannot buy land and can own only 49% of your business (after paying 100% of it)

You see GDP forecasts slip by around 1% and you all wet your knickers. It's laughable. Meanwhile, we'll continue to try and find more decent staff, invest in land, property, machinery and staff and make some very substantial returns.

indeed, your gf is looking at very substantial returns for herself.

[jumnien]

The simple answer is that all the whiners have zero funds to invest and employ no people; hence resentment becomes envy becomes "henny penny the sky is falling".

[Edonista]

The simple answer is that all the whiners have zero funds to invest and employ no people; hence resentment becomes envy becomes "henny penny the sky is falling".

I have funds and I might use them to invest in Thailand if Thai authorities allowed me to own 100% of my business and to buy any land and real estate it might need.

With current rules (that by the way also enforce me to hire 4 Thai employees while not giving any assurance for a visa ) brazilan real and turkish lira denominated bonds are for sure a much better option.

[palm]

>>>You seem not to understand that what is great for your gf and all her parents and friends you employed at inflated wages perhaps is not great for you and your wallet.

Huh? I don't employ her parents or any of her friends. You guys are unbelievable. Where did I say that? Oh I forgot, you MADE IT UP to try and justify your argument. Please stick to facts.

I have a son here (from my GF), so anything my GF earns is good for her, why is that a BAD thing for me or her? My own assets outside of Thailand are greater than within Thailand, plus I own 2 condos here which I paid for when the baht was 41/$.

You whiners sure make one thing stand out - you have no assets here, no significant businesses here, no interest in the welfare of Thai people, and certainly no constructive investment advice whatsoever.

Thailand sure could benefit from a democratic election, improved investment opportunities for foreigners, and it could do with a weaker baht, but the fundamentals of the economy are still fine, and not in any kind of severe deflation or recession.

[Mid]

" You whiners sure make one thing stand out - you have no assets here, no significant businesses here, no interest in the welfare of Thai people, and certainly no constructive investment advice whatsoever. "

bite me ,

generalisations are very dangerous , i have a good % of my net worth invested here , employing local staff and paying taxes , social insurance and so on .

oh yer , what size glasses for you ??

[ray23]

Ok trying to get it back to economics here anyone think history will repeat itself, 1987 crash, 1997 crash 2007? I paid very little attention to Asia before living here, but the one thing I expected every ten years in the states was a recession. Things look on track there as before. I don't know the effects of the 87 recession here, but it's very common knowledge what happened in 97. My understanding is that some safe guards were built into economic structures here from that event. China certainly seems worried about what it's economy is doing these day, I suppose they are afraid the bubble will burst, from an overheated economy. Is it realistic to think that if the US and China have problems that Thailand won't ?

Keep in mind one state in America California has a larger economy then the country of Thailand. If it is effected and things seem to be going how will the smaller Asain contries avoid being drug into what we now live in a world economy?

Thailand is very much a part of the world economy.

Just trying to get back on track with an honest question.

[Flysiam]

>>>You seem not to understand that what is great for your gf and all her parents and friends you employed at inflated wages perhaps is not great for you and your wallet.

Huh? I don't employ her parents or any of her friends. You guys are unbelievable. Where did I say that? Oh I forgot, you MADE IT UP to try and justify your argument. Please stick to facts.

I have a son here (from my GF), so anything my GF earns is good for her, why is that a BAD thing for me or her? My own assets outside of Thailand are greater than within Thailand, plus I own 2 condos here which I paid for when the baht was 41/$.

You whiners sure make one thing stand out - you have no assets here, no significant businesses here, no interest in the welfare of Thai people, and certainly no constructive investment advice whatsoever.

Thailand sure could benefit from a democratic election, improved investment opportunities for foreigners, and it could do with a weaker baht, but the fundamentals of the economy are still fine, and not in any kind of severe deflation or recession.

Palm I think you are suffering from the same generalizing that many others do here. You accused me of saying or implying things in a recent post that I never said. Just because someone doesn't tellt he world or brag about the level of their investments or the amount of assets they have does not mean they don't have them. Maybe - just MAYBE they have a tad more humility or would rather maintain a level of privacy rather than puff their chests and tell the world how great they are. People can 'one up' the next person all they want - in my opinion it just makes them look smaller, weaker, and very immature. I am glad you have all you have but it doesn't impress me one iota. I do know that things are 'down' overall economically - the world over. The forum is about Thailand and - surprise- things are 'down' as compared with the not too distant past. I don;t think anyone contests that. Maybe you do. In any economy - bad or good - there will be some parts that will suffer and some that will thrive. Even during the Great Depression there were some that benefited greatly. But I would not rub the noses of those with less or none in it and say that the whole world is rosey.

Off my soapbox

[palm]

>>>You seem not to understand that what is great for your gf and all her parents and friends you employed at inflated wages perhaps is not great for you and your wallet.

Huh? I don't employ her parents or any of her friends. You guys are unbelievable. Where did I say that? Oh I forgot, you MADE IT UP to try and justify your argument. Please stick to facts.

I have a son here (from my GF), so anything my GF earns is good for her, why is that a BAD thing for me or her? My own assets outside of Thailand are greater than within Thailand, plus I own 2 condos here which I paid for when the baht was 41/$.

You whiners sure make one thing stand out - you have no assets here, no significant businesses here, no interest in the welfare of Thai people, and certainly no constructive investment advice whatsoever.

Thailand sure could benefit from a democratic election, improved investment opportunities for foreigners, and it could do with a weaker baht, but the fundamentals of the economy are still fine, and not in any kind of severe deflation or recession.

Palm I think you are suffering from the same generalizing that many others do here. You accused me of saying or implying things in a recent post that I never said. Just because someone doesn't tellt he world or brag about the level of their investments or the amount of assets they have does not mean they don't have them. Maybe - just MAYBE they have a tad more humility or would rather maintain a level of privacy rather than puff their chests and tell the world how great they are. People can 'one up' the next person all they want - in my opinion it just makes them look smaller, weaker, and very immature. I am glad you have all you have but it doesn't impress me one iota. I do know that things are 'down' overall economically - the world over. The forum is about Thailand and - surprise- things are 'down' as compared with the not too distant past. I don;t think anyone contests that. Maybe you do. In any economy - bad or good - there will be some parts that will suffer and some that will thrive. Even during the Great Depression there were some that benefited greatly. But I would not rub the noses of those with less or none in it and say that the whole world is rosey.

Off my soapbox

Yes, but we are talking about the Thai Economy yes? Is it suffering from a crisis? Deflation or a recession? I really don't think so. From what I've seen here actually being involved with businesses, I don't see any substantial problems at all, apart from a strong baht and an uncertain government situation.

Yet, from investing in Thailand, global businesses can still manufacture at low costs here and sell in the West for substantial mark-ups. Sure, we could open in China or Vietnam, but there's no substantial benefits in our case.

For every good employee we can find here, we can make a monthly profit of around 300% of their salary. Employing the most reliable and skilled staff gives us a higher profit margin. Employing people at the lowest possible salary only creates problems.

In case some of you negative people didn't realise, if you invest in Thailand it does not mean you earn all of your income in Thai Baht, or you have to have all of your assets and companies in Thailand. We use Thailand as a manufacturing base; 100% of our products are exported, with our billing in US$, Euros and Sterling.

I'll stick to investing in Thailand, employing staff here, and building up capital, whilst hoping the baht will loose some of its strength.

Investing in 'bonds' is certainly not a better option for us. What are these exotic bonds returning? 10% to 12% a YEAR at best? Show me a low-risk investment bond or hedge fund with returns of 150% to 200% a year, and you'd have my attention.

Do any of you negative guys actually employ anyone over here? Or manufacture anything over here? Or is it all stock and bonds, online poker and forex trading?

[ThaiGoon]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/19May2007_focus05.php

Boom times ahead for Southeast Asia

Ten years on, all conditions are ripe for the cubs to turn into tigers

A decade after a crisis that brought the region to its knees and saw a flight of capital, Asia is poised for a major comeback on the back of improved fundamentals and inflow of investments, Lehman Brothers said in its latest report on the region.

"The climate in Southeast Asia seems ripe for an investment boom, which would set the stage for the 'cubs' to grow at their full potential in 2008 for the first time since the Asian crisis, Rob Subbaraman, chief economist for Asia for Lehman, said in his report.

..

in most countries, public debt/GDP ratios are below the OECD average. (below 40% of GDP for Thailand )

Conditions seem ripe for a revival: economic fundamentals are much improved; interest rates are low; public infrastructure spending looks set to soar; and capital inflows are surging.

Edited May 19, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[sbk]

Lets keep it on the economy and off of other peoples personal lives, shall we?

[Flysiam]

Palm I think you are suffering from the same generalizing that many others do here. You accused me of saying or implying things in a recent post that I never said. Just because someone doesn't tellt he world or brag about the level of their investments or the amount of assets they have does not mean they don't have them. Maybe - just MAYBE they have a tad more humility or would rather maintain a level of privacy rather than puff their chests and tell the world how great they are. People can 'one up' the next person all they want - in my opinion it just makes them look smaller, weaker, and very immature. I am glad you have all you have but it doesn't impress me one iota. I do know that things are 'down' overall economically - the world over. The forum is about Thailand and - surprise- things are 'down' as compared with the not too distant past. I don;t think anyone contests that. Maybe you do. In any economy - bad or good - there will be some parts that will suffer and some that will thrive. Even during the Great Depression there were some that benefited greatly. But I would not rub the noses of those with less or none in it and say that the whole world is rosey.

Off my soapbox

Yes, but we are talking about the Thai Economy yes? Is it suffering from a crisis? Deflation or a recession? I really don't think so. From what I've seen here actually being involved with businesses, I don't see any substantial problems at all, apart from a strong baht and an uncertain government situation.

Yet, from investing in Thailand, global businesses can still manufacture at low costs here and sell in the West for substantial mark-ups. Sure, we could open in China or Vietnam, but there's no substantial benefits in our case.

For every good employee we can find here, we can make a monthly profit of around 300% of their salary. Employing the most reliable and skilled staff gives us a higher profit margin. Employing people at the lowest possible salary only creates problems.

In case some of you negative people didn't realise, if you invest in Thailand it does not mean you earn all of your income in Thai Baht, or you have to have all of your assets and companies in Thailand. We use Thailand as a manufacturing base; 100% of our products are exported, with our billing in US$, Euros and Sterling.

I'll stick to investing in Thailand, employing staff here, and building up capital, whilst hoping the baht will loose some of its strength.

Investing in 'bonds' is certainly not a better option for us. What are these exotic bonds returning? 10% to 12% a YEAR at best? Show me a low-risk investment bond or hedge fund with returns of 150% to 200% a year, and you'd have my attention.

Do any of you negative guys actually employ anyone over here? Or manufacture anything over here? Or is it all stock and bonds, online poker and forex trading?

Guess some people don't really read..........

Lets keep it on the economy and off of other peoples personal lives, shall we?

THANKS! Finally.....

[Naam]

The simple answer is that all the whiners have zero funds to invest and employ no people; hence resentment becomes envy becomes "henny penny the sky is falling".

I have funds and I might use them to invest in Thailand if Thai authorities allowed me to own 100% of my business and to buy any land and real estate it might need.

With current rules (that by the way also enforce me to hire 4 Thai employees while not giving any assurance for a visa ) brazilan real and turkish lira denominated bonds are for sure a much better option.

Hola Edonista,

you and me might have different views and opinions on various subjects but i realized that some common denominators do exist.

[nick2k]

The simple answer is that all the whiners have zero funds to invest and employ no people; hence resentment becomes envy becomes "henny penny the sky is falling".

I have funds and I might use them to invest in Thailand if Thai authorities allowed me to own 100% of my business and to buy any land and real estate it might need.

With current rules (that by the way also enforce me to hire 4 Thai employees while not giving any assurance for a visa ) brazilan real and turkish lira denominated bonds are for sure a much better option.

Hola Edonista,

you and me might have different views and opinions on various subjects but i realized that some common denominators do exist.

the brazilan real has high interest rates. but you should be very careful about investing there. they had a currency devaluation back in 1999. I guess for a short term it would be ok. but my guess is they will have another valuation sometime again soon. they still haven't fixed their problem with the debt.

thailand was in the same boat back during the same time. 1997 thereabouts. remember?

I recall one of my rich friends raving about the high 14% interest rates that thailand had around 1995. he liked them so much he put in over 200k usa dollars. then, the 1997 crisis occurred and the baht went from 25 to 1... to 58 to 1 within like 2 weeks. maybe not even that.

you do remember right?

I think the chinese yuan is a good bet for the next 2 years. but after that, who knows? with the way they are using up resources, you wonder how long they can keep up the pace. going to africa makes sense. but what's next?

as for the euro. you got to wonder how long the union will last. barely what? ..4 years, and you are getting europeans complaining about the union. do you know what would happen if they split? .the euro would be worthless.

for me, the usa dollar is the only way to go. EVEN with the debt problem they have. which incidentally is nothing compared to the same problem many other countries have.

when the usa comes out with the new hydrogen change, things will be like they were before - topdog.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/18/autos/bc.f....reut/index.htm

http://www.nowpublic.com/breakthrough_proc..._aluminum_alloy

http://news.com.com/Producing+hydrogen+wit..._3-6184879.html

[Steely Dan]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/19May2007_focus05.php

Boom times ahead for Southeast Asia

Ten years on, all conditions are ripe for the cubs to turn into tigers

A decade after a crisis that brought the region to its knees and saw a flight of capital, Asia is poised for a major comeback on the back of improved fundamentals and inflow of investments, Lehman Brothers said in its latest report on the region.

"The climate in Southeast Asia seems ripe for an investment boom, which would set the stage for the 'cubs' to grow at their full potential in 2008 for the first time since the Asian crisis, Rob Subbaraman, chief economist for Asia for Lehman, said in his report.

..

in most countries, public debt/GDP ratios are below the OECD average. (below 40% of GDP for Thailand )

Conditions seem ripe for a revival: economic fundamentals are much improved; interest rates are low; public infrastructure spending looks set to soar; and capital inflows are surging.

Hmmm,

Lehman Brothers eh? No vested interest there from investment managers growing rich off fat comissions whilst their hedge funds create great imbalances and bubbles everywhere. And where is the new investment money going to come from with U.S investor confidence pegged at 90% and hedge funds geared at 250% of their assets. Imho this smells just like 2000 but worse, buyer beware imho.

[DrFisher]

If you read the posts on Thai Visa everyones economy is in crisis!!! Sounds like another boy crying wolf. The way I see it is today my lunch is going to cost 20B and next week it will cost 20B and in 2 or 3 years it will cost 20B when it goes up to 100B I'll start worrying.

[Edonista]

For every good employee we can find here, we can make a monthly profit of around 300% of their salary.

Investing in 'bonds' is certainly not a better option for us. What are these exotic bonds returning? 10% to 12% a YEAR at best? Show me a low-risk investment bond or hedge fund with returns of 150% to 200% a year, and you'd have my attention.

Please enlighten us about what goods allow you to gain 300% (while keeping you out of monkey house, of course)

I mean, many big export industries listed on SET have just reported losses for their 1st quarter, blaming the strong baht. Their managers must be real suckers if they managed to turn a 300% mark up into a final loss.

Do any of you negative guys actually employ anyone over here? Or manufacture anything over here? Or is it all stock and bonds, online poker and forex trading?

I guess there's a little difference between bonds and stocks, and even a bigger one between online poker and forex trading.

[Naam]

Do any of you negative guys actually employ anyone over here? Or manufacture anything over here?

although i am not a "negative guy" on Thailand here's my two satangs. i have three fulltime employees but i do not manufacture anything in Thailand. except for my home i refused and will refuse in future to invest one single Baht in Thailand no matter what potential profit i might be able reap. knowing that my funds are safe offshore where no thai legislation and no Thai partner can touch them gives me a sound sleep, let me sip my portwine and puff my havanna much more relaxed even though my average yield on investment might soon drop to a single digit.

[bingobongo]

the global credit bust is coming, and Thailand has learned nothing, oh well, just another reason for me not to touch Thailand at the moment and just wait for it to implode (some more)......

i guess the old adage about a pig in a dress is still a pig still holds true......

highdiver, just curious, have you ever taken a finance/economics/psychology class?

Credit market 'bubble' may be ready to burst

Investor appetite for junk bonds shows no signs of waning. Seven years ago, Thai Petrochemical Industry PCL defaulted on its bonds and was declared insolvent with debts of US$3.5 billion in Thailand's biggest bankruptcy. This month, the company, now called IRPC PCL, the nation's biggest petrochemicals maker, plans to sell US$400 million of new bonds.

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/news/archives/...7520/110114.htm

Edited May 20, 2007 by bingobongo

[bingobongo]

" You whiners sure make one thing stand out - you have no assets here, no significant businesses here, no interest in the welfare of Thai people, and certainly no constructive investment advice whatsoever. "

uh....ok, i'll answer you point by point:

you have no assets here - correct, as i sold my assets and sit in cash, gold, and silver

no significant businesses here - correct, as i do not want to be separated from it if i had one

no interest in the welfare of Thai people - not true, i think the junta was the worst thing that could have happened to the thai people, and hope for speedy election (wont happen)

certainly no constructive investment advice whatsoever - not true, my advice has been and still is, is to sell the baht, hold $, euro, gold, and silver and move assets out of thailand, how is that not constructive?

again, your rant implies you are emotional about your invstments which is alway a recipe for failure, i am objective and see that thailand is going nowhere and will allocate my assets accordingly, no emotion, just rational investment decision making

[underbob]

'Chalongphob rules out cut in transfer fees'

Thanks for this article - but I followed the link which is now dead & tried googling it & it appears the full story have been taken off of several sites ...maybe the government had the story taken off because it's in error or they want to keep up the illusion they will create stimulus without actually doing it? Any thoughts?

Edited May 21, 2007 by Maestro
Font formatting codes used for entire post removed for better readability.

[palm]

Please enlighten us about what goods allow you to gain 300% (while keeping you out of monkey house, of course)

Garments.

Manufacture for 300 baht, sell for 1000+.

Manufacture for 2000 baht, sell for 7000+.

We own the European and USA distribution, plus directly handle end-customer sales for over 50% of our transactions.

We need more skilled staff and a loosening of the baht to expand further.

Next question?

From the Economic Intelligence Unit (The world leader in global business intelligence, so they say - May 15th, 2007:

Economic forecast

Reflecting the surprisingly strong export performance (of Thailand) in the first quarter of 2007, combined with particularly weak import growth, the Economist Intelligence Unit has revised upwards its GDP growth forecast for this year to 4.5% from 4% previously.

http://www.eiu.com/

Edited May 20, 2007 by palm