What happens next with UK plan to breach Brexit divorce treaty?

By William James

 

FILE PHOTO: European Union and British flags flutter in front of a chancellery ahead of a visit of British Prime Minister Theresa May in Berlin, Germany, April 9, 2019. REUTERS/Hannibal Hanschke/File Photo

 

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is pressing ahead with legislation on trade despite a warning from Brussels that it could wreck their future relationship and an acknowledgement by his government that it violates international law.

 

The Internal Market Bill is aimed at ensuring Britain's four nations can trade freely with one another after leaving the European Union, but the government says that requires creating powers to override part of the withdrawal treaty it signed with Brussels.

 

WHY DOES BRITAIN WANT TREATY-BUSTING POWERS?

 

The government says the powers are a safety net to protect peace in Northern Ireland if negotiations with the EU on how to manage cross-border trade fail.

 

The EU wants to make sure the open border with Ireland doesn't act as a back door into the bloc for goods. Britain wants to make sure goods flow freely between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.

 

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

 

The bill must pass through both houses of the British parliament to become law -- first the House of Commons, where Johnson's Conservative Party has an 80-seat majority, and then the House of Lords, the upper chamber, where it does not have a majority.

 

The bill passed its first stage in the Commons by 340 votes to 263, and looks set to clear further stages next week after Johnson moved to avert a rebellion by offering concessions.

 

The bill is scheduled to finish its journey through the lower house on Sept. 29.

 

After this it will undergo scrutiny in the House of Lords. The bill is not being fast-tracked by Lords and will take most of October and November to consider.

 

This means it will not be law either before the EU's end of September deadline to withdraw the bill, or Johnson's Oct. 15 deadline for a deal with the EU. The negotiations around either of these deadlines, if successful, could remove the need for the bill's most contentious parts.

 

CAN THE HOUSE OF LORDS BLOCK THE BILL?

 

Many members of the upper house have criticised the bill, including Conservatives, but their primary role is to amend and improve legislation, not to block it on principle.

 

While there is precedent for the Lords blocking legislation, deciding to do so on this bill would provoke a constitutional row, and such a move is currently seen as unlikely.

 

The House of Lords is more likely to seek to amend the bill to remove or dilute certain parts, or insert additional checks and balances. The amendments would go back to the House of Commons for approval -- probably in early December.

 

If Johnson's lower-house majority holds firm, the bill could bounce back and forth between the two chambers until either a compromise is found or the government attempts to pass it without House of Lords approval.

 

WHAT CONCESSIONS HAS THE GOVERNMENT MADE?

 

Johnson has so far made two concessions.

 

Firstly he promised parliament a vote on any decision to use the treaty-breaking powers created by the bill -- a compromise that snuffed out a rebellion within his own party.

 

Secondly, he has also committed to referring any dispute with the EU to the resolution mechanism set out in the Withdrawal Agreement "in parallel" to using the treaty-busting powers unilaterally.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-09-18

 

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The precise sequence of what happens next is not as much a certainty as the UK eventually finding itself in an international dispute in which the UK wishes to hold another nation to treaty obligations.

 

The UK continues to maintain its own laws and regulations within its own borders is pretty much what it boils down to. Sorry EU but suck it up, your plans were thwarted by the one the Remainers call a buffoon.

4 minutes ago, Loiner said:

The UK continues to maintain its own laws and regulations within its own borders is pretty much what it boils down to. Sorry EU but suck it up, your plans were thwarted by the one the Remainers call a buffoon.

If we were fully self sufficient with no need for international trade or multilateral agreements then you may be right, but the world no longer works like that. Your hero's victory will prove to be pyrrhic. 

11 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

If we were fully self sufficient with no need for international trade or multilateral agreements then you may be right, but the world no longer works like that. Your hero's victory will prove to be pyrrhic. 

We had Rule Britannia at the Proms....onwards and upwards.

You will probably need a visa the next time you want to go to Europe. But who wants to do that anyway?

Good. This means no deal but fines and sanctions for those frauds. 

16 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The precise sequence of what happens next is not as much a certainty as the UK eventually finding itself in an international dispute in which the UK wishes to hold another nation to treaty obligations.

 

And another foreign trade dispute:

US House of Representative Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that there was "absolutely no chance" a US-Britain FTA would pass Congress if the Johnson government "violates the international treaty" (the Good Friday Agreement).

https://www.afr.com/world/europe/us-wades-into-britain-s-brexit-breach-20200910-p55u3j

 

13 hours ago, Loiner said:

The UK continues to maintain its own laws and regulations within its own borders is pretty much what it boils down to. Sorry EU but suck it up, your plans were thwarted by the one the Remainers call a buffoon.

There is little doubt that the bill will pass as I believe that many in the government secretly want to get shot of NI and are hoping for reunification.

Scotland will go it's own way and England will be left paddling around like a rubber duck, it's what the people voted for, after all they chose to ignore the warnings in 2015.

I do hope Boris doesn't do a loser deal with the US. 

17 minutes ago, Pedrogaz said:

I do hope Boris doesn't do a loser deal with the US. 

What cards does he have to play with? There is little in his deck to give us the upper hand. 

Time to dig out DVD of wonderful very dark comedy "The War of the Roses"

 

18 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The EU wants to make sure the open border with Ireland doesn't act as a back door into the bloc for goods. Britain wants to make sure goods flow freely between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.

The EU has a right. The UK has a different right.

 

The two rights are incompatible. So they will just go round in circles.

Edited September 19, 20205 yr by mfd101

15 hours ago, Boomer6969 said:

You will probably need a visa the next time you want to go to Europe. But who wants to do that anyway?

Of interest to any that do...

Quote

A public information campaign launches to help British travellers prepare for changes when visiting Europe from 1 January 2021, when the UK’s transition period ends.

New information campaign to help Brits prepare for EU travel changes

It's not even funny. The EU constitution was widely rejected so they renamed it the Lisbon treaty and didn't give people the option to have an opinion. The rest is is just willing to be a whore. 

An off topic unatributed  post has been removed

16 hours ago, Loiner said:

The UK continues to maintain its own laws and regulations within its own borders is pretty much what it boils down to. Sorry EU but suck it up, your plans were thwarted by the one the Remainers call a buffoon.

What about breaking a treaty? How can anyone, any country, trust a government which is not prepared to keep a contract that it negotiated and signed. UK will be even worse off than by just leaving the EU without an agreement on trade.

1 hour ago, mfd101 said:

The EU has a right. The UK has a different right.

 

The two rights are incompatible. So they will just go round in circles.

 

two rights making one wrong?

 

(sounds a wee bit like nitting, maybe thats what they do in the backroom between disputes)

 

16 hours ago, baansgr said:

We had Rule Britannia at the Proms....onwards and upwards.

I prefer Land of Hope and Glory....but same difference.

A democratically elected House of Commons approved the bill but, sadly, an unelected House of Lords will most likely reject it. 

All the promises about Brexit were impossible since forever. For a long time the UK politicians could pretend that soon the future will be bright. They only had to promise because many people didn't look at reality - the wanted promises.

Now Brexit becomes real with all those border trade issues, lots of paperwork, lots of extra costs and basically no upside (apart from pretending to take control).

The only thing that Boris can do is find someone to blame which will obviously be the EU. The he himself praised that deal and he signed it is obviously already forgotten.

I wonder how long it will take before the majority of the UK population will realize what a stupid idea that Brexit is.

17 hours ago, Loiner said:

The UK continues to maintain its own laws and regulations within its own borders is pretty much what it boils down to. Sorry EU but suck it up, your plans were thwarted by the one the Remainers call a buffoon.

Why did Boris sign any international contract if he didn't like it? He even praised his wonderful oven-ready deal.

He should have told his voters something like: We don't sign any international deals anymore, we don't need the rest of the world. We are Great Britain.

Yeah, sure.

A conspiracy troll post has been removed

What will happen next is that Boris will turn the cooker on on his oven ready deal if not it will be a cold Christmas Turkey ????

5 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

All the promises about Brexit were impossible since forever. For a long time the UK politicians could pretend that soon the future will be bright. They only had to promise because many people didn't look at reality - the wanted promises.

Now Brexit becomes real with all those border trade issues, lots of paperwork, lots of extra costs and basically no upside (apart from pretending to take control).

The only thing that Boris can do is find someone to blame which will obviously be the EU. The he himself praised that deal and he signed it is obviously already forgotten.

I wonder how long it will take before the majority of the UK population will realize what a stupid idea that Brexit is.

“I wonder how long it will take before the majority of the UK population will realize what a stupid idea that Brexit is.”

 

I wonder how long it will take before the majority of remainers will realize that they lost the referendum vote on Brexit. 

 

Bye bye EU.

16 hours ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Good. This means no deal but fines and sanctions for those frauds. 

Why is 'No deal' good for either side?

1 hour ago, abrahamzvi said:

What about breaking a treaty? How can anyone, any country, trust a government which is not prepared to keep a contract that it negotiated and signed. UK will be even worse off than by just leaving the EU without an agreement on trade.

The EU has chosen, or is at least openly considering, to interpret that treaty as allowing it to effectively control traffic between two parts of the United Kingdom - England, Scotland and Wales, and Northern Ireland.

 

As a result the government of the United Kingdom is taking powers to prevent that.

 

Many, if not most of the countries in the world will absolutely understand that, and find it quite acceptable.

Edited September 19, 20205 yr by herfiehandbag

18 hours ago, baansgr said:

We had Rule Britannia at the Proms....onwards and upwards.

Sounds pretty hollow these days, unfortunately.

18 hours ago, Loiner said:

The UK continues to maintain its own laws and regulations within its own borders is pretty much what it boils down to. Sorry EU but suck it up, your plans were thwarted by the one the Remainers call a buffoon.

The UK becomes the new North Korea = it doesn't need the rest of the world. 

 

I mean it works so well for them?

18 hours ago, baansgr said:

We had Rule Britannia at the Proms....onwards and upwards.

Rule Britannia was always going to be played at the proms.