CAAT predicts 68% drop in passenger numbers this year

By The Nation

 

CAAT chief Chula Sukmanop

 

The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) expects passenger numbers in 2020 to plummet 68 per cent year on year to 52.8 million, due to the Covid-19 impact, said director-general Chula Sukmanop.

 

Of the total, 36.7 million are expected to be domestic passengers, down 51.8 per cent from 76.2 million last year.

 

International arrivals are expected to number 16.1 million, falling 81.8 per cent from 88.8 million last year.

 

The CAAT chief expects travel to return to normalcy in 2023.

 

Many airlines have adjusted to the virus fallout by seeking ways to boost revenue from domestic routes.

 

Nitinai Sirismatthakarn, president of Airports of Thailand, which operates six international airports, said the AOT has only Bt40 billion liquidity left, falling from Bt70 billion prior to the outbreak.

 

The AOT is waiting to see if the aviation situation improves in next two years on the expectation that a Covid vaccine will be available by April next year.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30395405

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-10-01

 

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Predicting the annual international passenger count is easy.  Take the count to date, and add about 1000 a month to the end of the year.

 

Or just round it off at the YTD count and you're still within 1/10 of a percent.

 

If AOT has gone through 30B of their 70B rainy day fund already, better get out the gub'ment checkbook.  The start of 2021 isn't going to be pretty, either.  Nor the end if they don't do something about the ridiculous entry requirements. 

 

Good news is that they'll sell a lot of distressed real estate and businesses to special tourists from up north.  Maybe even some airports...

 

Notice how TAT have altered their language.  Earlier any arrival was numbered as a tourist.  Now tourist has become an arrival.  So both tourist and arrival have included Thais returning home home after a vacation or business trip, expats returning, workers from Burma and other countries coming in.

 

Yet we are not told the number of tourists and the number of others.  TAT up to their usual double play.

 

CAAT is no different.  16.1 million people arriving from overseas is 44100 a day. Perhaps TAT and CAAT use the same calculator.

All speculation of course with a fair amount of optimism thrown in for good measure.

Not only because of covid CAAT Chief, have a good look in the mirror. Clean out your department, start to do your job, check your flight schools, get the clearing to fly to the US back and for once start to support (general) aviation and Pilots in general. The sky does not belong to a certain group of people only, capito?

Most people would predict 68 arriving more likely ????

10 hours ago, webfact said:

The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) expects passenger numbers in 2020 to plummet 68 per cent year on year to 52.8 million,

this is not proof read, RIGHT

 

 

9 hours ago, lujanit said:

CAAT is no different.  16.1 million people arriving from overseas is 44100 a day. Perhaps TAT and CAAT use the same calculator.

Another example of Thai mathematics.

14 hours ago, lujanit said:

Notice how TAT have altered their language.  Earlier any arrival was numbered as a tourist.  Now tourist has become an arrival.  So both tourist and arrival have included Thais returning home home after a vacation or business trip, expats returning, workers from Burma and other countries coming in.

 

Yet we are not told the number of tourists and the number of others.  TAT up to their usual double play.

 

CAAT is no different.  16.1 million people arriving from overseas is 44100 a day. Perhaps TAT and CAAT use the same calculator.

I honestly don't know why they continue to tolerate this person constantly holding press conferences to discuss issues that have nothing to do with his agency, particularly since that agency is still unable to adequately fulfill its actual mission, which is overseeing aviation safety and security in Thailand (its failings brought into sharp focus by Thailand's repeated failing grades in US FAA assessments). But that's just my perpetual rant.

 

Yes, it's clear that the figures he provided make no sense, as @lujanit notes. The only thing I can guess is that the figure of 88.1 million actually represents total international passengers (i.e., arrivals, departures, and transits), not arrivals as stated. That would be in the realm of possibility, and would make a drop of 81.8% plausible: basically, normal operations during January and February of this year, a 75% drop in March as the pandemic took hold, and pretty much nothing after that.