Thai business group keeps GDP forecast but upgrades export outlook

 

FILE PHOTO: A truck moves containers at the port of Bangkok, Thailand May 26, 2016. REUTERS/Jorge Silva

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economy is still expected to contract by 7%-9% this year although exports could shrink less than previously projected as the coronavirus pandemic remains a risk, a group of the country's top business associations said on Wednesday.

 

The group now predicts exports will drop 8%-10%, rather than fall 10%-12% as seen earlier, after recent improved shipments, according to a joint standing committee on commerce, industry and banking.

 

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy posted its deepest fall in over two decades in the second quarter as the outbreak hammered the key tourism and export sectors, which accounted for about 60% of GDP last year.

 

The economy should continue to recover later this year, helped by the country's COVID-19 controls and government stimulus measures, Kalin Sarasin, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, told a briefing.

 

"But the fourth quarter is a challenge as there are new outbreaks in several countries and we are worried that could be a problem for exports in future," he said.

 

(Reporting by Satawasin Staporncharnchai; Writing by Orathai Sriring; Editing by Martin Petty)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-10-07

 

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Economy to shrink 7-9% but export picture rosier: JSCCIB

By THE NATION

 

Kalin Sarasin

 

Thailand’s economy will shrink by 7-9 per cent this year but has passed through its lowest point in the Covid-19 crisis, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) said on Wednesday.

 

Kalin Sarasin, JSCCIB chairman, said economic momentum would continue through the end of the year after hitting rock-bottom in the second quarter. Thailand recorded its worst slump since the 1997 financial crisis earlier this year as the lockdown and travel ban battered the economy.

 

Kalin said the recovery was down to Thailand’s success in dealing with the virus, plus government stimulus measures such as schemes to boost domestic tourism.

 

However, he also warned that recovery in the fourth quarter would be disrupted if there was a second wave of infections.

 

Other factors that could affect the Thai economy were a strong baht and foreign politics, especially in the US where the presidential election is due next month.

 

The JSCCIB forecasts the economy will contract by 7-9 per cent and inflation fall 1-1.5 per cent this year.

 

For exports it sees a rosier picture, raising the 2020 forecast from a drop of 10-12 per cent to a drop of 8-10 per cent.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30395795

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-10-08

 

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No way.  Baht still too high for any recovery in exports.

Edited October 8, 20205 yr by Isaan sailor

An Export Drop of 12 % - 15% for this Year and Next is probably nearer the mark.

The strong Baht, and inefficient Production, which raises costs, are going to be a very real burden on the Thai Economy going forward.

At this precise moment in time, The World does not need Cars Assembled in Thailand, or White Goods made here, 

People all over the Globe are looking at ways to keep the House they have on Mortgage, keep their Jobs, and other higher priority issues due to the Corona Virus meltdown of so many Economies.

And Yes ! Thailands Economy is one of them.

What utter tosh! Thailand exports have been shrinking since the coup, corruption is rife even to the extent of thieving from the old and vunerable: lowest of the low. Exports of gold, Gems and precious metals is smudging figures which should be scaring the government because once they are gone they are gone. 

I can see exports going up. 

 

It'll just be Chinese goodies doing a touch and go on their way from China to the USA to avoid punitive tariffs, though.

 

The STV millionaires are on their way to grease the skids.