COVID-19 is not going away soon or ever

[polpott]

4 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

You mean the trial that was halted due to a sickness?  Stage 3 trials normally go on for years.  For good reasons.  Frankly, I won't be one of the first in line for any jab.  And since it's a new virus, they still don't know everything about it.  Only time will tell.  And for us here in Thailand, good luck getting a jab this year.  Never happen.

 

Some great info here:

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-vaccine-what-we-know-so-far-a-comprehensive-guide-by-academic-experts-147881

Thailand has already bought the Oxford vaccine. The trial was halted for a matter of days until it was found to be coincidental. Every country immediately restarted the trial except the US where trump blocked it in an attempt to get a US vaccine first past the post. You obviously didn't read your own link.

 

 

Edited October 17, 2020 by polpott

[Jeffr2]

25 minutes ago, polpott said:

Its not mutating significantly enough for a vaccine to be ineffectual.

Really? 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/23/houston-coronavirus-mutations/?arc404=true

Massive genetic study shows coronavirus mutating and potentially evolving amid rapid U.S. spread

 

The largest U.S. genetic study of the virus, conducted in Houston, shows one viral strain outdistancing all of its competitors, and many potentially important mutations.

[Jeffr2]

3 minutes ago, polpott said:

Thailand has already bought the Oxford vaccine. The trial was halted for a matter of days until it was found to be coincidental. Every country immediately restarted the trial except the US where trump blocked it in an attempt to get a US vaccine first past the post. You obviously didn't read your own link.

I read that link, and others.  Yes, the trial is back on.  But NOBODY knows what's going to happen with it.  Maybe good, maybe not.  Eventually they will get it right.  They have issues with the seasonal flu jab! Not to mention the anti-vaxers. LOL

 

As for Trump....ugh.

[CygnusX1]

36 minutes ago, polpott said:

Oxford University know. They are well on in Stage 3 of the trials and the results so far are excellent.

Do you mean excellent in terms of safety and level of antibodies found in blood samples, or do you mean excellent in terms of low or zero actual infections vs placebo groups?

[polpott]

1 minute ago, CygnusX1 said:

Do you mean excellent in terms of safety and level of antibodies found in blood samples, or do you mean excellent in terms of low or zero actual infections vs placebo groups?

Yes to all the above.

[cmarshall]

1 hour ago, polpott said:

The popular theory is that Covid jumped from bats to pangolin to humans. Same process. SARS was around for 2 years and just disappeared. Spanish flu in the early 1900s also disappeared after a couple of years.

SARS did not "just disappear."  It was eradicated by the global public health community, the Chinese in particular, who took stringent measures.  Just like smallpox, SARS was eradicated entirely by public health measures, since no vaccine was ever developed against it.

 

Other versions of the H1N1 virus that caused the flu epidemic of 1918 are still around.

[polpott]

1 minute ago, cmarshall said:

SARS did not "just disappear."  It was eradicated by the global public health community, the Chinese in particular, who took stringent measures.  Just like smallpox, SARS was eradicated entirely by public health measures, since no vaccine was ever developed against it.

 

Other versions of the H1N1 virus that caused the flu epidemic of 1918 are still around.

Smallpox was eradicated by vaccine. H1N1 didn't originate in 1918. It had mutated from previous HIN1 viruses. Its one of the more common flu viruses but not the same as 1918 H1N1 which is no longer with us.

 

SARS did just disappear.

[sandyf]

On 10/16/2020 at 5:07 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Not like a regular flu at all. They want masks and distancing to be permanent. None of that happened for regular flu or any other diseases, far as I know.

I'm happy to go back to life as pre corona and take my chances, even though I'm over 70 and not particularly healthy.

Tell us, how did the world learn to live with cholera, typhoid, smallpox etc.

[Jeffr2]

17 minutes ago, polpott said:

Smallpox was eradicated by vaccine. H1N1 didn't originate in 1918. It had mutated from previous HIN1 viruses. Its one of the more common flu viruses but not the same as 1918 H1N1 which is no longer with us.

 

SARS did just disappear.

It's an interesting read about how they got rid of smallpox.  It wasn't easy and took decades.  Along with a coordinated global effort.  Sadly, due to the current president in the US, a coordinated global effort won't happen.

 

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/08/27/the-us-cooperated-with-the-soviets-on-smallpox-it-should-do-the-same-with-china-on-covid-19-vaccine-distribution/

[cmarshall]

20 minutes ago, polpott said:

Smallpox was eradicated by vaccine. H1N1 didn't originate in 1918. It had mutated from previous HIN1 viruses. Its one of the more common flu viruses but not the same as 1918 H1N1 which is no longer with us.

 

SARS did just disappear.

Yes, of course, I was forgetting that the vaccine for smallpox was the first to be developed.  That's also correct about H1N1, a variant of which caused a pandemic as recently as 2009.

 

SARS was indeed eradicated by public health measures, including one instance where the Chinese government filled a hospital with infected persons and then ringed it with soldiers ordered to shoot anyone who tried to leave.  Beyond that, they used temperature testing in airports, isolation of infected persons in Toronto and Singapore, and confined the world-wide spread to a few countries for a total of about 8,000 infected.  Absent the public health measures SARS would have spread to the less-developed world where its containment would have been much more difficult.  

 

 

[sandyf]

24 minutes ago, polpott said:

Smallpox was eradicated by vaccine. H1N1 didn't originate in 1918. It had mutated from previous HIN1 viruses. Its one of the more common flu viruses but not the same as 1918 H1N1 which is no longer with us.

 

SARS did just disappear.

SARS has not disappeared, they are still working on a vaccine. It emerged again in the middle east and they called it MERS but still a version of SARS, as is covid. 

They are also still working on the MERS vaccine and we can only hope that intensified research brought about by covid will lead to a positive outcome for all versions of the Acute Respiratory Syndrome.

[polpott]

Just now, sandyf said:

SARS has not disappeared, they are still working on a vaccine. It emerged again in the middle east and they called it MERS but still a version of SARS, as is covid. 

They are also still working on the MERS vaccine and we can only hope that intensified research brought about by covid will lead to a positive outcome for all versions of the Acute Respiratory Syndrome.

MERS is completely different to SARS. MERS originated in the Middle East and occasionally appears there today. Passed on from camels. Those Bedouin just can't resist a cow eyed camel on those long nights in the desert.

[Jeffr2]

2 minutes ago, polpott said:

MERS is completely different to SARS. MERS originated in the Middle East and occasionally appears there today. Passed on from camels. Those Bedouin just can't resist a cow eyed camel on those long nights in the desert.

All are caused by the coronavirus.  So all are similar.  Same same but different.

 

https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(20)30171-3/fulltext

[sandyf]

2 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

SARS was indeed eradicated by public health measures, including one instance where the Chinese government filled a hospital with infected persons and then ringed it with soldiers ordered to shoot anyone who tried to leave.  Beyond that, they used temperature testing in airports, isolation of infected persons in Toronto and Singapore, and confined the world-wide spread to a few countries for a total of about 8,000 infected.  Absent the public health measures SARS would have spread to the less-developed world where its containment would have been much more difficult.  

The big difference at the time of SARS was the Chinese did not travel as much. I arrived in Thailand as it started and as you say the Thais had already put thermal imaging in place at the airport. At that time Thailand was a major gateway for the Chinese to the rest of the world and was a major influence on containment.

[sandyf]

6 minutes ago, polpott said:

MERS is completely different to SARS. MERS originated in the Middle East and occasionally appears there today. Passed on from camels. Those Bedouin just can't resist a cow eyed camel on those long nights in the desert.

SARS is a coronavirus and MERS is a coronavirus, but there is no dispute Severe And Middle East are different words.

There was a major outbreak of MERS in South Korea 2015, why they were so quick off the mark with covid.

[polpott]

1 minute ago, sandyf said:

SARS is a coronavirus and MERS is a coronavirus, but there is no dispute Severe And Middle East are different words.

There was a major outbreak of MERS in South Korea 2015, why they were so quick off the mark with covid.

There are many corona viruses.

[steelepulse]

18 hours ago, from the home of CC said:

don't think the rest of the world is that stupid.. 

Sweden deaths right in line with every other year.  Covid hasn't changed overall death rates.  Only thing to see here is 2019 had less deaths than normal.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

Edited October 17, 2020 by steelepulse

[Jeffr2]

23 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

Sweden deaths right in line with every other year.  Covid hasn't changed overall death rates.  Only thing to see here is 2019 had less deaths than normal.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

Perhaps not the best way to look at CV deaths?  Plus, misleading as you've left out some details.  I.E. 2020 deaths are only through October 5th.

 

https://www.axios.com/sweden-death-tally-highest-coronavirus-45dd5bd4-aded-4032-8952-fe745e229575.html

 

Of note: A study published in the Journal of Royal Society of Medicine on Tuesday that examined infection rates in Sweden compared to other countries found it "continued persistence of higher infection and mortality ... well beyond the few critical weeks period seen in Denmark, Finland and Norway, whose rapid lockdown measures seem to have been initially more successful in curtailing the infection surge."

 

Edited October 17, 2020 by Jeffr2

[Brunolem]

6 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Perhaps not the best way to look at CV deaths?  Plus, misleading as you've left out some details.  I.E. 2020 deaths are only through October 5th.

 

https://www.axios.com/sweden-death-tally-highest-coronavirus-45dd5bd4-aded-4032-8952-fe745e229575.html

 

Of note: A study published in the Journal of Royal Society of Medicine on Tuesday that examined infection rates in Sweden compared to other countries found it "continued persistence of higher infection and mortality ... well beyond the few critical weeks period seen in Denmark, Finland and Norway, whose rapid lockdown measures seem to have been initially more successful in curtailing the infection surge."

 

The Swedish results have been analyzed and known for quite a while. 

 

They messed up with their elderlies, as most of their covid linked deaths were registered in nursing homes, hence a national average death age over 80.

 

The general population on the other hand sustained very few fatalities. 

 

Moreover, today Sweden doesn't have to deal with the resurgence of cases seen in many European countries which, by the way, have stopped condemning Sweden for its alleged irresponsibility. 

 

[scammed]

On 10/16/2020 at 6:01 AM, Brunolem said:

Not to mention that they have destroyed their countries' already fragile economies, that will need years to recover, if ever...

yes, that is what i referred to as high treason

[Jeffr2]

5 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

The Swedish results have been analyzed and known for quite a while. 

 

They messed up with their elderlies, as most of their covid linked deaths were registered in nursing homes, hence a national average death age over 80.

 

The general population on the other hand sustained very few fatalities. 

 

Moreover, today Sweden doesn't have to deal with the resurgence of cases seen in many European countries which, by the way, have stopped condemning Sweden for its alleged irresponsibility. 

 

I hear ya, but don't like when some post that it's ok only the elderly died.  Kinda BS IMHO.

 

From an economic point of view, they actually did worse than their neighbors.  But I'm only comparing them to their nearest neighbors.  Not to the rest of the EU.  Doesn't make sense.

[Jeffr2]

8 minutes ago, scammed said:

yes, that is what i referred to as high treason

High treason is what the US did.  Allowing some 50-60k die that didn't have to.  Wear a mask, social distance, take the virus seriously.  We did it here and it worked.

[steelepulse]

2 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

I hear ya, but don't like when some post that it's ok only the elderly died.  Kinda BS IMHO.

 

From an economic point of view, they actually did worse than their neighbors.  But I'm only comparing them to their nearest neighbors.  Not to the rest of the EU.  Doesn't make sense.

Every death is a tragedy, but as the graph shows, the covid deaths of the elderly in the old folks home and the high proportion of Somali deaths hasn't added any overall deaths to the average. What does that tell you?  

[TeaMonkey]

All the charts I’ve seen have shown that Sweden has had a pretty much normal year for all cause deaths. 
And they now have the lowest Covid death rate in Europe. 
 

 

[Virt]

Personally I think this will stay for a long time or maybe end up seasonal like the yearly flu. 

 

Vaccines are not making it go away since vaccination is not 100 certain. 

A large portion of people does not develop anti bodies and then we have the problem with one vaccine probably won't cover all variations of covid 19.

 

Plus as long as vaccines are not mandatory worldwide it's going to be even harder to get rid of this. 

 

I see 3 ways that might get rid of covid 19, but not 1 of them are realistic.

 

1. Infect every human beeing on the earth at the same time and let it run wild.

 

2. Quarantine the entire world for a month, including animals that can spread the disease.

 

3. Give every human beeing a vaccine and make sure they develop anti bodies. 

 

1 and 2 are completely impossible, and number 3 would cause to much trouble because there are people that refuse any vaccines on the market. 

 

So I'm kinda pessimistic, but to be honest I think that people are so sick and tired about the freedom taken away, that when a vaccine arrives, it slowly turns around and we just learn to live with it like the flu. 

 

No way people worldwide are accepting to live with these restrictions forever. 

[mike787]

Who really cares, it is what it is...it's like debating why we have to die....

[GroveHillWanderer]

16 hours ago, Max69xl said:

FYI, covid-19 is just the last corona virus strain. There are several others, and they haven't gone anywhere. They together with the common flu kills hundreds of thousands world wide every year.

Absolutely untrue. One of the other coronaviruses (SARS-CoV-1) has gone somewhere - it has disappeared from circulation and is no longer causing infections or deaths anywhere in the world. The only other coronavirus that kills anyone is MERS and it only kills less than 200 people per year, not hundreds of thousands.

[polpott]

3 hours ago, steelepulse said:

Sweden deaths right in line with every other year.  Covid hasn't changed overall death rates.  Only thing to see here is 2019 had less deaths than normal.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102257/cumulative-coronavirus-cases-in-the-nordics/

 

Sweden:   Cumulative Covid cases 96K      Cumulative Covid deaths 5.9k

 

Norway:   Cumulative Covid cases  13k     Cumulative Covid deaths 267

 

Denmark: Cumulative Covid cases  30k     Cumulative Covid deaths 643

 

Finland:   Cumulative Covid cases   10k    Cumulative Covid deaths 346

 

Sweden is doing far worse than its Nordic neighbours who all took appropriate action.

[Odysseus123]

25 minutes ago, polpott said:

Sweden is doing far worse than its Nordic neighbours who all took appropriate action.

Yes..but the poster and sundry others get told that ad nauseam-only to briefly pause and then continue their perseverative ways.

 

Please note that I am using the word perseverative not repetition as their posts are not amenable to reason and,therefore,the perseverative statements cannot stop short of inter- galactic intervention.

 

Gawd..I hope the Alpha Centaurans turn up soon..

[Jeffr2]

3 hours ago, TeaMonkey said:

All the charts I’ve seen have shown that Sweden has had a pretty much normal year for all cause deaths. 
And they now have the lowest Covid death rate in Europe. 
 

 

Deaths:

Finland: 351

Norway: 278

Sweden: 5,918

 

Hmmm....doesn't look like the Sweden model did very well.  Economically?  They performed the worst also.