1.20.09: The Beginning Of The Dollar Bull Market?

[Jingthing]

I would have never thought of this, but it makes some sense. Apparently, there is a correlation between the strength of the US dollar and the popularlity of the US president. With Bush being so universally unpopular now and the dollar being at such lows and still weakening, the theory is currently spot on.

http://www.slate.com/id/2165579/fr/flyout

Now will the new president on 1.20.09 mean the beginning of a dollar recovery? Counting the days!

[Alf Witt]

The theory is far from "spot on".

Having a dollar in your pocket is still an asset.

Bush in the White House is a liability.

[up-country_sinclair]

bush's amassing of record debt and deficits certainly can't be helping the dollar.

Edited May 6, 2007 by up-country_sinclair

[backflip]

Exactly. Add to that a war in Iraq and his threats against Iran and Korea, and you have his popularity - and the dollar - on the decline.

[jumnien]

I'm not sure the Thai currency is strong because of the popularity of the military "government" abroad or the perception that its economy is well-managed. Me thinks currency evaluations are more complex than presidential or PM popularity. That said, because of Bush's policies, I'd be pretty bullish on the dollar.

[midas]

I'm not sure the Thai currency is strong because of the popularity of the military "government" abroad or the perception that its economy is well-managed. Me thinks currency evaluations are more complex than presidential or PM popularity. That said, because of Bush's policies, I'd be pretty bullish on the dollar.

Oh yeah - keep dreaming mdeland

You should read what your own fellow countryman - Clyde Prestowitz has to say

( he served as counselor to the Secretary of Commerce in the Reagan Administration )

Maybe even the VIETAMESE DONG has a got a brighter future the the US $................

[Jingthing]

I'm not sure the Thai currency is strong because of the popularity of the military "government" abroad or the perception that its economy is well-managed. Me thinks currency evaluations are more complex than presidential or PM popularity. That said, because of Bush's policies, I'd be pretty bullish on the dollar.

Did you look at the chart on the link?

And Bush is now on his last months and has the lowest approval ratings of any president in history. All he has left now are his base, mostly hard core fundamentalists who believe that these are the end times (so who cares about the deficit?).

Edited May 7, 2007 by Jingthing

[gbt71fa]

I would have never thought of this, but it makes some sense. Apparently, there is a correlation between the strength of the US dollar and the popularlity of the US president. With Bush being so universally unpopular now and the dollar being at such lows and still weakening, the theory is currently spot on.

http://www.slate.com/id/2165579/fr/flyout

Now will the new president on 1.20.09 mean the beginning of a dollar recovery? Counting the days!

You meand the record stock markets...the record unemployment (or lack thereof). Spending up....anything to blame Bush. Yes, he spends too much and that is the Democrat side of him I hate. For the pass few years, the u.s. economy has been shooting up so of course it has to come down. Do any of you understand economics. There is a reason that one of the first things that Sarkozy (the new French Prez) said was that he was reaching out to the U.S. and that that France and the U.S. would be strong allies. Come out of your shells. Any man who stands up for something, right or wrong (and I believe he is right), is always targeted by the haters of the world. So if you want to trade in your Baht and hang your hat on the some other foreign currency than please do. Snorkel heads...

[Jingthing]

I'm not sure the Thai currency is strong because of the popularity of the military "government" abroad or the perception that its economy is well-managed. Me thinks currency evaluations are more complex than presidential or PM popularity. That said, because of Bush's policies, I'd be pretty bullish on the dollar.

This isn't about baht strength. Its about the dollar. The dollar is still the world's reserve currency.

[jumnien]

It seems clear to me that because of Bush's policies the dollar is very weak. Because of his policies coming to an end in a couple years I suspect the dollar will rebound. Therefore, I am a bit bullish on the dollar, since it is weak now. If a rational President were in office and the dollar was very strong, I would be bearish on the dollar. Cycles, people, cycles!

[Jingthing]

I would have never thought of this, but it makes some sense. Apparently, there is a correlation between the strength of the US dollar and the popularlity of the US president. With Bush being so universally unpopular now and the dollar being at such lows and still weakening, the theory is currently spot on.

http://www.slate.com/id/2165579/fr/flyout

Now will the new president on 1.20.09 mean the beginning of a dollar recovery? Counting the days!

You meand the record stock markets...the record unemployment (or lack thereof). Spending up....anything to blame Bush. Yes, he spends too much and that is the Democrat side of him I hate. For the pass few years, the u.s. economy has been shooting up so of course it has to come down. Do any of you understand economics. There is a reason that one of the first things that Sarkozy (the new French Prez) said was that he was reaching out to the U.S. and that that France and the U.S. would be strong allies. Come out of your shells. Any man who stands up for something, right or wrong (and I believe he is right), is always targeted by the haters of the world. So if you want to trade in your Baht and hang your hat on the some other foreign currency than please do. Snorkel heads...

So you like Bush? Good for you. But the topic is about approval ratings and the theory that they correlate to dollar value. Do you deny Bush's approval ratings at home and abroad are in the toilet? This theory is just a theory but it is interesting. I for one would like a stronger dollar, so I hope the theory is true, because soon we will be rid of Bush.

BTW, the stock market is up partly because of improved exports due to a weak dollar. This current stock market rally is good for Wall Street and not good for Main Street. Most Americans are much worse off economically now than under Bill Clinton.

[midas]

[

Did you look at the chart on the link?

Jingthing with all due respect I am far more interested in ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS

than charts connected to the popularity or otherwise of Presidents ! if you can to read

a fraction of some of the independent economists in the USA -you learn the problems

facing the USA go far beyond deficits - in fact the seeds were sown decades ago..........

e.g. falling school standards, lack of money spent on R & D etc -there are some very

deep-seated problems.

Even without the Iraq war - whoever is in power has an almost impossible task

to keep the US dollar looking attractive in the long run

[Jingthing]

[

Did you look at the chart on the link?

Jingthing with all due respect I am far more interested in ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS

than charts connected to the popularity or otherwise of Presidents ! if you can to read

a fraction of some of the independent economists in the USA -you learn the problems

facing the USA go far beyond deficits - in fact the seeds were sown decades ago..........

e.g. falling school standards, lack of money spent on R & D etc -there are some very

deep-seated problems.

Even without the Iraq war - whoever is in power has an almost impossible task

to keep the US dollar looking attractive in the long run

I agree fundamentals are important. And I agree there is a good argument for an even weaker dollar. But economics is more than that. It is also psychological. Right now, the USA is in the dog house all over the world. People in the US now realize that and want a new president to make healing that damage a priority. If such a president is elected (probable) the world will start to feel better again about the country with the biggest economy in the world, with the world's reserve currency, and I think it is quite logical to assume this would probably mean a strengthening of the dollar.

BTW, if a right wing republican is elected, I don't think it would have the same effect, because the world would see this as the US not turning over a new leaf.

Edited May 7, 2007 by Jingthing

[gbt71fa]

I would have never thought of this, but it makes some sense. Apparently, there is a correlation between the strength of the US dollar and the popularlity of the US president. With Bush being so universally unpopular now and the dollar being at such lows and still weakening, the theory is currently spot on.

http://www.slate.com/id/2165579/fr/flyout

Now will the new president on 1.20.09 mean the beginning of a dollar recovery? Counting the days!

You meand the record stock markets...the record unemployment (or lack thereof). Spending up....anything to blame Bush. Yes, he spends too much and that is the Democrat side of him I hate. For the pass few years, the u.s. economy has been shooting up so of course it has to come down. Do any of you understand economics. There is a reason that one of the first things that Sarkozy (the new French Prez) said was that he was reaching out to the U.S. and that that France and the U.S. would be strong allies. Come out of your shells. Any man who stands up for something, right or wrong (and I believe he is right), is always targeted by the haters of the world. So if you want to trade in your Baht and hang your hat on the some other foreign currency than please do. Snorkel heads...

So you like Bush? Good for you. But the topic is about approval ratings and the theory that they correlate to dollar value. Do you deny Bush's approval ratings at home and abroad are in the toilet? This theory is just a theory but it is interesting. I for one would like a stronger dollar, so I hope the theory is true, because soon we will be rid of Bush.

BTW, the stock market is up partly because of improved exports due to a weak dollar. This current stock market rally is good for Wall Street and not good for Main Street. Most Americans are much worse off economically now than under Bill Clinton.

Sorry, charlie, there were far few less jobs created under the clinton administration even after sucking spending agawy from the defense budget and intelligence gathering. The middle class has increased (especially among Hispanics and African-Americans) and again, more jobs are being created each quarter under Bush than during Clinton's administration. Yes, you will be rid of Bush and will have Guilliani. While the manufuacturing sector is now in a period of slowdown (less manufactured goods) it has no purchasing power from continuing and, in fact, rising. The slowdown is about to turn around because of a dramatic drop in home prices after the season winter trend of a slowdown. As for his approval raitings: they are taking in the east coast and west coast where any republican will lose. His approval ratings in the Midwest are still above 50% (check out Ohio) and no candidate has ever won without winning the Midwest vote. The press hates him in the U.S. so you will never get the positive which you people (yes, your kind) love to eat up.

[PeaceBlondie]

Just reading the opening paragraphs of the original link, I'm convinced it's a very far-fetched 'correlation' that proves nothing and indicates even less.

No single person is in charge of the world's economy, or of its only superpower. You can blame past Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan for printing too many dollars, worrying about all the wrong things, etc. You can blame Congress for passing incredibly huge annual deficits, abandoning all hope of paying down the national debt, pork-barrel giveaways, being enslaved to lobbyists, ignoring the freight train of Social Security problems after 2025, etc. The Comptroller General said the biggest deficit of all was the lack of leadership at both the political and corporate levels. No cojones, as Madeline Albright might say.

[midas]

with the world's reserve currency, and I think it is quite logical to assume this would probably mean a strengthening of the dollar.

Sorry but I dont share that view !

I believe the U.S. dollar has had its heyday an whether in response to direct U.S. government actions or as a result of inevitable economic maturation, the dollar has been shaken by financial globalisation. There are of course apocalyptic predictions the dollar will eventuslly free-fall to a sudden collapse, but I am more moderate and believe in a more predictable balancing based on a more diversified global economy.

[mackayae]

bush's amassing of record debt and deficits certainly can't be helping the dollar.

Exactly. Until the budget is balanced, the dollar cannot expect to recover. However, none of the canditates are addressing this fact. I do not see a light at the end of the tunnel.

[Jingthing]

bush's amassing of record debt and deficits certainly can't be helping the dollar.

Exactly. Until the budget is balanced, the dollar cannot expect to recover. However, none of the canditates are addressing this fact. I do not see a light at the end of the tunnel.

Wrong. Bill Richardson has addressed the debt. He has also addressed the task of repairing the international public relations damage done by Bush, as have all the democrats. I would bet big money it will be a democrat in 08, probably Clinton.

As far as the US dollar being the world reserve currency, it still is that, that nobody can deny. Of course, it won't be forever. China could cripple the US tomorrow if it wanted to but that would be suicide for them, so they won't.

Getting back to a balanced budget is a big part of sustained economic growth, too, the kind of growth that creates good jobs and actually reduces poverty. And that's what I'll do as President.

Gov. Bill Richardson

Actually, it wouldn't be that hard to balance the budget. Get rid of the Bush era welfare for the rich would be a good start. Ending the Iraq war, a good followup.

Also, the social security "crisis" could be fixed tomorrow by just raising the salary cap on social security tax to 200K.

BTW, Guiliani is a man who has been seen many times in a dress. He supports abortion rights, gay rights, and has a very dodgy personal past. He won't even be nominated by the right wing republican party. The US may be ready for a black president or a woman president. Not quite there for a drag queen president. And, yes, I am serious about this. Imagine if he is leading later in the game. Now imagine the attack tv ads you will see from his opponents.

Edited May 7, 2007 by Jingthing

[LoveDaBlues]

bush's amassing of record debt and deficits certainly can't be helping the dollar.

Exactly. Until the budget is balanced, the dollar cannot expect to recover. However, none of the canditates are addressing this fact. I do not see a light at the end of the tunnel.

Wrong. Bill Richardson has addressed the debt. He has also addressed the task of repairing the international public relations damage done by Bush, as have all the democrats. I would bet big money it will be a democrat in 08, probably Clinton.As far as the US dollar being the world reserve currency, it still is that, that nobody can deny. Of course, it won't be forever. China could cripple the US tomorrow if it wanted to but that would be suicide for them, so they won't.

Getting back to a balanced budget is a big part of sustained economic growth, too, the kind of growth that creates good jobs and actually reduces poverty. And that's what I'll do as President.

Gov. Bill Richardson

Actually, it wouldn't be that hard to balance the budget. Get rid of the Bush era welfare for the rich would be a good start. Ending the Iraq war, a good followup.

Also, the social security "crisis" could be fixed tomorrow by just raising the salary cap on social security tax to 200K.

BTW, Guiliani is a man who has been seen many times in a dress. He supports abortion rights, gay rights, and has a very dodgy personal past. He won't even be nominated by the right wing republican party. The US may be ready for a black president or a woman president. Not quite there for a drag queen president. And, yes, I am serious about this. Imagine if he is leading later in the game. Now imagine the attack tv ads you will see from his opponents.

Clinton can't win because she can't carry the South. Simple as that. If the Democrats are smart they will run Edwards; he can carry the South and defeat a Republican; especially now as they are weak because of Bushy.

Please post credible sources and some facts about Guiliani's "dodgy" past.

He supports abortion rights and gay rights. So do I and a lot of other people.

I'm pretty sure the pic of Guiliani was taken at a fund raiser where all the local politicans/celebs dressed up crazy to help raise money. Your posts suggest Guiliani is a closet 'drag queen' although there is no proof of this.

I could easily say Bill Richardson (or anyone else) has a very dodgy personal past. I don't post rumor/speculation as it is not fair to the person mentioned WITHOUT FACTS TO BACK IT UP. Hearsay is not fact.

[Jingthing]

I wasn't suggesting that supporting gay rights or abortion choice is linked to a dodgy past. Separate things, but both very difficult things for a person trying to be the republican nominee. I also support gay rights, women's choice, and have a dodgy past and present (but I am not running for president! in the RIGHT WING republican party!!). Merely stating that the current republican front runner doesn't have a chance in hel_l to be nominated by the republican party because of his long history of liberal views on social issues, as well as his verifiable dodgy past, multiple divorces, living with a gay men in the same apartment in Greenwich village (the famous New York city gay ghetto), dressing in women's clothing publicly multiple times (he likes it clearly). The republican party is the party that is on record to suppress gay rights. This guy is in the wrong party, and look buster, this is common knowledge:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...id=opinionsbox1

Also, he uses 911 as a crutch. The US is past that working polically.

BTW, the dems could lose the entire south and still win the presidency. Last time, it came down to Ohio. Not the South. In 2000, it came down to Florida, not the traditional south.

Edited May 8, 2007 by Jingthing

[Naam]

"Guiliani is a man who has been seen many times in a dress"

fact or rumour?

[lannarebirth]

The strongest argument for a dollar rally is that US personal income and corporate taxes will probably be raised by a Democrat controlled Congress. Personally, I can understand the USD's weakness, but for the life of me I do not understand the Euro's strength. It's as crap a currency as was ever devised. If I were a German and I'd surrendered my DM's for it, I'd be pissed.

[cclub75]

The strongest argument for a dollar rally is that US personal income and corporate taxes will probably be raised by a Democrat controlled Congress. Personally, I can understand the USD's weakness, but for the life of me I do not understand the Euro's strength. It's as crap a currency as was ever devised. If I were a German and I'd surrendered my DM's for it, I'd be pissed.

An increase of corporate taxes in the US would lead to... a dollar rally ?

That's a new and original way of thinking. Could you give us more details ?

If you are thinking about the fact that heavy taxes could reduce the budget deficit and public debt... Then the US would need a rate of 100 % of taxes.

Or maybe more.

[lannarebirth]

The strongest argument for a dollar rally is that US personal income and corporate taxes will probably be raised by a Democrat controlled Congress. Personally, I can understand the USD's weakness, but for the life of me I do not understand the Euro's strength. It's as crap a currency as was ever devised. If I were a German and I'd surrendered my DM's for it, I'd be pissed.

An increase of corporate taxes in the US would lead to... a dollar rally ?

That's a new and original way of thinking. Could you give us more details ?

If you are thinking about the fact that heavy taxes could reduce the budget deficit and public debt... Then the US would need a rate of 100 % of taxes.

Or maybe more.

Not specifically, but every doollar of income that is kept at home cannot be shipped overseas in the form of consumption of imported goods. Tax increases create demand for dollars as opposed to other currencies.

[Naam]

The strongest argument for a dollar rally is that US personal income and corporate taxes will probably be raised by a Democrat controlled Congress. Personally, I can understand the USD's weakness, but for the life of me I do not understand the Euro's strength. It's as crap a currency as was ever devised. If I were a German and I'd surrendered my DM's for it, I'd be pissed.

take a wild guess how much the undersigned german is pissed

Naam

[Jingthing]

"Guiliani is a man who has been seen many times in a dress"

fact or rumour?

Yep, multiple times.

Political observers say many voters associate a macho demeanor with Giuliani's post-Sept. 11 image as a strong national leader in a time of crisis an image that could lose its power if dressed in stockings and dancing the cancan.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=3041229

Its a fact. They have been public events. You've got to think he wasn't thinking about running for pres at the time.

http://www.cartoondollemporium.com/dollmak...0/z5=5/doll.gif

Edited May 8, 2007 by Jingthing

[cclub75]

Not specifically, but every doollar of income that is kept at home cannot be shipped overseas in the form of consumption of imported goods. Tax increases create demand for dollars as opposed to other currencies.

A dollar in income (taxes) can be used by the US gvt to buy foreign goods too. Or sent outside US... to pay back interests on the -huge- debt held by foreigners for instance.

And I disagree with your idea that tax increase create demand for dollars. With taxes there is no creation of money ! No "demand". It's just a punction on dollars that already exist within the system.

It's just a "transfert" from your US pocket to (the bigger) gvt's pocket ! So really, I don't follow your logic.

[Jingthing]

Well, one thing is certain. Nothing goes up or down forever. True, some penny stocks become zero cents stocks, but the USA is not a penny stock, so you've got to think that someday what goes down, will eventually come up ... at least a little.

[palm]

This thread has some of the funniest and scariest posts I've seen in a long long time anywhere

[lannarebirth]

Not specifically, but every doollar of income that is kept at home cannot be shipped overseas in the form of consumption of imported goods. Tax increases create demand for dollars as opposed to other currencies.

A dollar in income (taxes) can be used by the US gvt to buy foreign goods too. Or sent outside US... to pay back interests on the -huge- debt held by foreigners for instance.

And I disagree with your idea that tax increase create demand for dollars. With taxes there is no creation of money ! No "demand". It's just a punction on dollars that already exist within the system.

It's just a "transfert" from your US pocket to (the bigger) gvt's pocket ! So really, I don't follow your logic.

That's true, but it's a dollar tha isn't being used to buy imported goods and is an additional paydown of public debt. Neither of those things are happening now. I think youi'll find the US govt spends very little of it's annual budget purchasing foreign goods.