A big downturn in international arrivals has hit the Thai baht this year.

 

BANGKOK -- The Thai baht was the worst performer among commonly traded Southeast Asian currencies during the first quarter, as its fundamentals were eroded due to lack of tourist spending.

 

The baht depreciated 4% against the U.S. dollar to 31.24, according to Refinitiv data. The fall stood out from regional peers, which also were in decline.

 

Full Story: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Thai-baht-is-worst-performing-currency-in-Southeast-Asia

Was at 31.34 this morning when I made my monthly transfer from My US bank to Kasikorn.  Now its at 31.26, but 1 year ago it was at 33.10 per 1 USD.  I would not be surprised if it gets to 32

42 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Was at 31.34 this morning when I made my monthly transfer from My US bank to Kasikorn.  Now its at 31.26, but 1 year ago it was at 33.10 per 1 USD.  I would not be surprised if it gets to 32

 

Have noticed and it is only "slight" but Foreign Currency Reserves are just edging down from record highs. Only slightly but its reversing a long term upward trend

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Was at 31.34 this morning when I made my monthly transfer from My US bank to Kasikorn.  Now its at 31.26, but 1 year ago it was at 33.10 per 1 USD.  I would not be surprised if it gets to 32

 

Or back to 29.9....

 

Danish Mgt_Macroecon Update_March 15, 2021 by Dr Kirida TDRI.pdf

6 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

Or back to 29.9....

 

Danish Mgt_Macroecon Update_March 15, 2021 by Dr Kirida TDRI.pdf 2.04 MB · 2 downloads

I believe that the lengthened pandemic has turned that forecast on it's ear as the baht has shrunk not gained as in the forecast.  But then who knows what tomorrow brings. 

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Was at 31.34 this morning when I made my monthly transfer from My US bank to Kasikorn.  Now its at 31.26, but 1 year ago it was at 33.10 per 1 USD.  I would not be surprised if it gets to 32

 

I guess all the cash for the CP deal to buy Tesco Lotus has gone through now.

2 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

 

You see that 35.3 ?

 

That's where I transferred 300K USD to my foreign currency account with Kasikorn, with the intention to exchange them when it would reach 36 in the next month or so.

 

THey are still in the account lol

4 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The baht depreciated 4% against the U.S. dollar to 31.24, according to Refinitiv data.

Good.  Hope it keeps depreciating.

Boris Johnson will stub his foot next week and the baht will gain a 0.5% against the pound

10 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Thai baht was the worst performer among commonly traded Southeast Asian

Any chance in making that sonbish worst performer in the world?

27 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Boris Johnson will stub his foot next week and the baht will gain a 0.5% against the pound

Yep, that and some German scientist will discover some 0.0000000000001% discrepancy in the AZ vaccine that will save one life by abolishing it and yet kill 100,000 and blame it on the UK with the upshot being the baht climbs 3 points just to turn the screw on the exphats a little bit more. Stroll on!!!

10 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The Thai baht was the worst performer among commonly traded Southeast Asian currencies during the first quarter

 

worst performing ?

 

what does that even mean ?

 

In a country that relies heavily on exports and tourism it could be argued that it is performing very well - in fact 

 

It is a fact 

 

As it turns out it is probably performing the best when it comes to economic interests - maybe not so so good for the power that want to invest outside Thailand - maybe they should now redirect their money inward and invest in .......Thailand were they earned it

At last. Some good news. 

https://longforecast.com/usd-to-bht-today-forecast

 

USD to THB forecast for August 2021.
In the beginning rate at 34.56 Bahts. High exchange rate 34.95, low 33.91. The average for the month 34.46. The USD to THB forecast at the end of the month 34.43, change for August -0.4%.

I don't think Noi, the construction laborer from Udon Thani really cares! 300 baht per day IS 300 baht per day!

I still can't afford to buy Heinz Beanz because of tariffs on farang imports.

11 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

I believe that the lengthened pandemic has turned that forecast on it's ear as the baht has shrunk not gained as in the forecast.  But then who knows what tomorrow brings. 

 

Actually,  I think you are right.  The forecast I posted was made in February 2020, lots have changed since then and the Baht is in for some pain. 

I like the 34 August 2021 forecast shared above.

2 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Boris Johnson will stub his foot next week and the baht will gain a 0.5% against the pound

It's lost 7.5% against the pound in the first 1/4, I changed at 43.05 yesterday.

GBP to THB 1st Jan 40.70

GBP to THB 1st Apr 43.20

up 6.1%

12 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Was at 31.34 this morning when I made my monthly transfer from My US bank to Kasikorn.  Now its at 31.26, but 1 year ago it was at 33.10 per 1 USD.  I would not be surprised if it gets to 32

That made a difference of Bht 115 !

9 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

It's lost 7.5% against the pound in the first 1/4, I changed at 43.05 yesterday.

In fairness to the THB, the GBP has risen against a multitude of currencies since we left the EU. It's also about 6% up on the Euro since New Year.

 

 

9 minutes ago, KannikaP said:

That made a difference of Bht 115 !

When you transfer 40K USD like I just did, its a nice amount that can be used and not lost to the factors and it is approximately 40k baht more than I would have had last month.

Edited April 2, 20215 yr by ThailandRyan

16 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

In fairness to the THB, the GBP has risen against a multitude of currencies since we left the EU. It's also about 6% up on the Euro since New Year.

 

 

GBP has gone down since the vote to leave the EU. Current recovery due to making a deal with the EU. No-deal Brexit would have sent it crashing again.

2 hours ago, smedly said:

 

worst performing ?

 

what does that even mean ?

 

In a country that relies heavily on exports and tourism it could be argued that it is performing very well - in fact 

 

It is a fact 

 

As it turns out it is probably performing the best when it comes to economic interests - maybe not so so good for the power that want to invest outside Thailand - maybe they should now redirect their money inward and invest in .......Thailand were they earned it

Worst performing probably means that the percentage decline of THBUSD compared to other regional currencies against the $ has been more.

30 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

When you transfer 40K USD like I just did, its a nice amount that can be used and not lost to the factors and it is approximately 40k baht more than I would have had last month.

Sorry, I was assuming your 'monthly transfer' was the 65k required by Immigration, not USD 40k.......(per month?)

What ever you are doing its working well ,Keep it up. 

Let the Baht drop another 10% - 15%  then watch the tourist come in droves and the ecomomy prosper.

Waiting for the good old 25 again like it was before they floated their currency.

 

25 minutes ago, KannikaP said:

Sorry, I was assuming your 'monthly transfer' was the 65k required by Immigration, not USD 40k.......(per month?)

You made a fair assumption .

31 minutes ago, KannikaP said:

Sorry, I was assuming your 'monthly transfer' was the 65k required by Immigration, not USD 40k.......(per month?)

Yes it was a fair assumption and understandable.  However 40K USD is what I transfer yearly to carry me through the year.  Periodically I will transfer more as I see it is needed.  My pension and income stays in the States in my accounts/portfolio where I have it directed to and it can earn a little more than a regular savings account.  I have 12 different CD's that one year auto-renewing instruments and are stair staggered so each one now basically renews every month, so if i need funds then they are available as well.  If I was doing the 65k income method I would unfortunately have to cut back my lifestyle.  I enjoy as I said what I have earned over my working career, and enjoy the fact that I am able to use it the way I like instead of being stuck at living month to month.

Edited April 2, 20215 yr by ThailandRyan

So Baht @ 31.23 USD is cause to celebrate? I’ll drink a can of Singha, and wait for 34. Maybe then, some imported red wine.