Vaccine

[petermik]

7 hours ago, Surelynot said:

Politics I guess.

Blind leading the blind.....

[kinyara]

3 hours ago, TaaSaparot said:

 

You sure it was not the 1.8m locally produced vaccines?

 

Yes you're right it was the first batch of home brew, getting my Sino's and Siam's mixed up which sadly isn't due to a hangover.  1.8m out of 6m they'll supply this month. No indication of expected supply numbers for July but somehow from their various sources they'll need to rustle up 14m to get their program on track.

[Leaver]

4 hours ago, kinyara said:

but somehow from their various sources they'll need to rustle up 14m to get their program on track.

 

Nothing that a press release can't fix.  ????

[jacko45k]

19 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

Yes.

 

Thailand's vaccination supply isn't keeping up with the rates needed to meet the deadline they have put forward.  

 

More Thai smoke and mirrors.  

 

Yes I am afraid so... Thailand will move from one logistics problem to the next up the chain. 

[Leaver]

9 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Yes I am afraid so... Thailand will move from one logistics problem to the next up the chain. 

 

They can take all the registrations and bookings they like, but without procuring or manufacturing the vaccine, their time frame blows out.  

[TaaSaparot]

Private hospitals will charge 3,800 baht inclusive for two doses of the Covid-19 vaccine made by US-based Moderna.

[kinyara]

Impressive step up in vaccination levels on the first day of the push, 415,847 doses administered which is 90% of the current daily target required to meet their year end target. Whilst only one day it demonstrates the authorities have  got the logistical set-up of locations/procedure/personnel in place to potentially achieve their goal.

 

All eyes on the supply side of the equation now and how much more than 6m comes out of local production in July. With 2-3m coming from Sinovac and the Johnson&Johnson/Pfizer supply not likely just yet,  11m is the benchmark to stay on track.

[Leaver]

On 6/8/2021 at 6:28 AM, kinyara said:

Impressive step up in vaccination levels on the first day of the push, 415,847 doses administered which is 90% of the current daily target required to meet their year end target. Whilst only one day it demonstrates the authorities have  got the logistical set-up of locations/procedure/personnel in place to potentially achieve their goal.

 

All eyes on the supply side of the equation now and how much more than 6m comes out of local production in July. With 2-3m coming from Sinovac and the Johnson&Johnson/Pfizer supply not likely just yet,  11m is the benchmark to stay on track.

 

If, and that's a big IF, they can keep up supply, and maintain the rate you quoted of around 416,000 vaccinations being administered every day, the equation is as follows:

 

45,500,000 people to be vaccinated, twice x 2 = 91,000,000

 

91,000,000 fully vaccinated people / 416,000 people vaccinated per day = 218 days.

 

218 days / 30 days in a month = 7.2 months.

 

Thus, Thailand ready to open 1st Jan 2022.  

 

Every day that vaccination figure is not reached, means delaying the opening into 2022, not withstanding some vaccinations only require one jab, and some other variables.   

[kinyara]

2 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

If, and that's a big IF, they can keep up supply, and maintain the rate you quoted of around 416,000 vaccinations being administered every day, the equation is as follows:

 

45,500,000 people to be vaccinated, twice x 2 = 91,000,000

 

91,000,000 fully vaccinated people / 416,000 people vaccinated per day = 218 days.

 

218 days / 30 days in a month = 7.2 months.

 

Thus, Thailand ready to open 1st Jan 2022.  

 

Every day that vaccination figure is not reached, means delaying the opening into 2022, not withstanding some vaccinations only require one jab, and some other variables.   

 

And as we saw Tuesday was even better news being the first time they exceeded the required average. I doubt anyone will quibble with a few days here or there at the end of the day, it would be losing anything longer than a month that I think would be disappointing and a bad result. Out of interest I'll be keeping my eye on a 15 day moving aver which should be enough to monitor trend amidst daily ups and downs

[Leaver]

15 minutes ago, kinyara said:

 

And as we saw Tuesday was even better news being the first time they exceeded the required average. I doubt anyone will quibble with a few days here or there at the end of the day, it would be losing anything longer than a month that I think would be disappointing and a bad result. Out of interest I'll be keeping my eye on a 15 day moving aver which should be enough to monitor trend amidst daily ups and downs

 

If the Thai's can vaccinate around 416,000 people a day, and keep up the vaccine supply in order to be able to do so, and open up somewhere around the 1st Jan 2022, I think that will be a great achievement.  

 

I just can't see a 1st October completion as possible, unless they are only talking about the first dose, and I am unsure how wise it would be to open the country up before everyone was fully vaccinated.  

 

I don't know if it's possible, but I would hate to see the virus develop some type of immunity to the vaccine, in the same way bacterial infection gain resistance to antibiotics in people that don't finish the course of antibiotics.  

[kinyara]

1 minute ago, Leaver said:

 

If the Thai's can vaccinate around 416,000 people a day, and keep up the vaccine supply in order to be able to do so, and open up somewhere around the 1st Jan 2022, I think that will be a great achievement.  

 

I just can't see a 1st October completion as possible, unless they are only talking about the first dose, and I am unsure how wise it would be to open the country up before everyone was fully vaccinated.  

 

I don't know if it's possible, but I would hate to see the virus develop some type of immunity to the vaccine, in the same way bacterial infection gain resistance to antibiotics in people that don't finish the course of antibiotics.  

 

The upside from a Pattaya perspective is they should get the heads up from the earlier experience of what does or doesn't happen in Phuket.  Even if it's technically possible vaccine wise what's equally important is they'll also get an idea of tourist enthusiasm with 3 months of actual arrival data which should at least help individual business owner decisions.

 

I personally think the Phuket model will be a damp squib with very limited take up until a slow rise in Oct-Dec all being well. Even though TAT have continued to reduce their tourist arrival forecast for 2021 they still haven't got to my own Jan 1 prediction of 2 million, they are gradually getting there though.

 

[Leaver]

1 hour ago, kinyara said:

 

The upside from a Pattaya perspective is they should get the heads up from the earlier experience of what does or doesn't happen in Phuket.  Even if it's technically possible vaccine wise what's equally important is they'll also get an idea of tourist enthusiasm with 3 months of actual arrival data which should at least help individual business owner decisions.

 

I personally think the Phuket model will be a damp squib with very limited take up until a slow rise in Oct-Dec all being well. Even though TAT have continued to reduce their tourist arrival forecast for 2021 they still haven't got to my own Jan 1 prediction of 2 million, they are gradually getting there though.

 

 

Most tourists will fly into Phuket.  The Phuket International Airport is within Phuket province.  Phuket is also an island province, which means everyone on the island / in the province can be easily quarantined from the mainland, in an instant.

 

Most tourists to Pattaya have to fly into Bangkok, the highly populated capital of Thailand, and it's also a different province.  The risk of spread is much greater.

 

As you say, in regards to Phuket, will the risk to the mainland be worth it, for the very few tourists that will holiday to Phuket, before a significant number of Thai's on the mainland have been vaccinated?

[TaaSaparot]

4 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

Most tourists will fly into Phuket.  The Phuket International Airport is within Phuket province.  Phuket is also an island province, which means everyone on the island / in the province can be easily quarantined from the mainland, in an instant.

 

Most tourists to Pattaya have to fly into Bangkok, the highly populated capital of Thailand, and it's also a different province.  The risk of spread is much greater.

 

As you say, in regards to Phuket, will the risk to the mainland be worth it, for the very few tourists that will holiday to Phuket, before a significant number of Thai's on the mainland have been vaccinated?

 

Seriously?

[Leaver]

14 hours ago, TaaSaparot said:

 

Seriously?

 

Yes, seriously.  The virus can't swim in ocean water.  ????

[TaaSaparot]

9 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

Yes, seriously.  The virus can't swim in ocean water.  ????

 

I do wonder if you have ever been to Thailand, when you think "Most tourists to Pattaya have to fly into Bangkok, the highly populated capital of Thailand"

[HashBrownHarry]

On 6/10/2021 at 8:28 PM, Leaver said:

 

Most tourists will fly into Phuket.  The Phuket International Airport is within Phuket province.  Phuket is also an island province, which means everyone on the island / in the province can be easily quarantined from the mainland, in an instant.

 

Most tourists to Pattaya have to fly into Bangkok, the highly populated capital of Thailand, and it's also a different province.  The risk of spread is much greater.

 

As you say, in regards to Phuket, will the risk to the mainland be worth it, for the very few tourists that will holiday to Phuket, before a significant number of Thai's on the mainland have been vaccinated?

Thanks for the geography lesson.

[Leaver]

10 hours ago, TaaSaparot said:

 

I do wonder if you have ever been to Thailand, when you think "Most tourists to Pattaya have to fly into Bangkok, the highly populated capital of Thailand"

 

It was obvious to all I meant international tourists, but maybe not obvious to you.

[TaaSaparot]

2 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

It was obvious to all I meant international tourists, but maybe not obvious to you.

 

Surely, the majority of international tourists would fly in to Samut Prakarn, not Bangkok then?

[Leaver]

3 hours ago, TaaSaparot said:

 

Surely, the majority of international tourists would fly in to Samut Prakarn, not Bangkok then?

 

Maybe they could sail in to Samut Prakam.