Herd Immunity

[Kopitiam]

Do you still believe in herd immunity?

Royal Navy flotilla reports Covid outbreak with 100 cases despite all sailors being vaccinated

https://sg.yahoo.com/news/royal-navy-flotilla-reports-covid-070851623.html

[VocalNeal]

Vaccination does not stop anyone catching the disease only the symptoms from the disease. How much of those symptoms depends on the numbers

Edited July 14, 2021 by VocalNeal
spelling

[MajorTom]

Yes. Seems to work fine. Nobody has any serious symptoms according to the article.

[richard_smith237]

Op what is your point: 

 

Assuming the British Navy were vaccinated with Pfizer which reportedly has a 96% efficacy.

 

100 people of a 3,700 strong crew contracted Covid-19 - thats 2.7% and well within the efficacy rates.

 

None of the sailors suffered serious effects.

 

The vaccine did exactly what it was supposed to do.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[richard_smith237]

6 minutes ago, VocalNeal said:

Vaccination doers not stop anyone catching the disease only the symptoms from the disease. How much of those symptoms depends on the numbers

 

Not quite true. Efficacy figures are for ‘prevention of contracting Covid-19’.

 

Thus - Pre-Delta Variant figures for the purposes of discussing efficacy:

Sinovac at 50% will protect 50% of people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 from contracting and testing positive for Covid-19. 

Pfizer at 76% will protect 76% of people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 from contracting and test positive for Covid-19.

 

Many of the remainder may contract Covid-19 and remain either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms and in most cases prevented from severe symptoms and death.

 

 

 

[RJRS1301]

4 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Sinovac at 50% will protect 50% of people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 from contracting and testing positive for Covid-19. 

It appears that Sinovac looses efficacy after 40 days.

 

[2 is 1]

You can get covid second time! But maybe it not so serious.

 

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/coronavirus-young-people-can-catch-covid-second-time-says-lancet-study-2424361

[BE88]

4 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Not quite true. Efficacy figures are for ‘prevention of contracting Covid-19’.

 

Thus - Pre-Delta Variant figures for the purposes of discussing efficacy:

Sinovac at 50% will protect 50% of people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 from contracting and testing positive for Covid-19. 

Pfizer at 76% will protect 76% of people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 from contracting and test positive for Covid-19.

 

Many of the remainder may contract Covid-19 and remain either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms and in most cases prevented from severe symptoms and death.

 

 

 

 

Your statement is not correct, the director of a hospital confirmed that the hospitalized are 50% 50% of the vaccinated and unvaccinated. This information is kept secret and undisclosed.

 

 

[Kopitiam]

10 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Op what is your point: 

 

Assuming the British Navy were vaccinated with Pfizer which reportedly has a 96% efficacy.

 

100 people of a 3,700 strong crew contracted Covid-19 - thats 2.7% and well within the efficacy rates.

 

None of the sailors suffered serious effects.

 

The vaccine did exactly what it was supposed to do.

 

 

 

 

 

 

My point is all the government around the world is telling its population to go for vaccination in order to achieve herd immunity with 70% population vaccinated or there about.  They are now even using single shot (half vaccinated) numbers to try to achieve this target.  This article/report tells us it's all BS.

Yes, vaccines reduce the chance of getting seriously ill and hospitalisation if infected after being fully vaccinated.

[richard_smith237]

26 minutes ago, Kopitiam said:

46 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Op what is your point: 

 

Assuming the British Navy were vaccinated with Pfizer which reportedly has a 96% efficacy.

 

100 people of a 3,700 strong crew contracted Covid-19 - thats 2.7% and well within the efficacy rates.

 

None of the sailors suffered serious effects.

 

The vaccine did exactly what it was supposed to do.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expand  

My point is all the government around the world is telling its population to go for vaccination in order to achieve herd immunity with 70% population vaccinated or there about.  They are now even using single shot (half vaccinated) numbers to try to achieve this target.  This article/report tells us it's all BS.

Yes, vaccines reduce the chance of getting seriously ill and hospitalisation if infected after being fully vaccinated.

The world is not living in close quarters on a ship. 

 

If fewer people contract Covid-19, fewer people can pass it along until such that the transmission rate (R number) falls below 1 - herd immunity, the science behind it is not in question. 

 

The article has not told us that Herd Immunity is BS...  you have made your own interpretation based on the article that Herd Immunity does not work in the real world because it has not worked on a Ship with people living in close quarters. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 14, 2021 by richard_smith237

[Kopitiam]

15 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

The world is not living on close quarters on a ship. 

 

If fewer people contract Covid-19, fewer people can pass it along - herd immunity, the science behind it is not in question. 

 

The article has not told us that Herd Immunity is BS...  you have made your own interpretation based on the article that Herd Immunity does not work in the real world because it has not worked on a Ship with people living in close quarters. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am referring to Herd Immunity in general.  Definition of herd immunity from Merriam Webster dictionary:

Definition of herd immunity

: a reduction in the risk of infection with a specific communicable disease (such as measles or influenza) that occurs when a significant proportion of the population has become immune to infection (as because of previous exposure or vaccination) so that susceptible individuals are much less likely to come in contact with infected individuals

 

These COVID-19 vaccines do not prevent you from infection.  I have a chill down my spine each time I hear an official says come here for a holiday, it is safe, our people have achieved herd immunity.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Kopitiam
typo

[ChC1]

30 minutes ago, Kopitiam said:

My point is all the government around the world is telling its population to go for vaccination in order to achieve herd immunity with 70% population vaccinated or there about.  They are now even using single shot (half vaccinated) numbers to try to achieve this target.  This article/report tells us it's all BS.

Yes, vaccines reduce the chance of getting seriously ill and hospitalisation if infected after being fully vaccinated.

It is not all BS. The scientists never said the vaccine will eradicate the virus by 70% of population vaccinated. They said it could help to achieve Herd Immunity. 

 

What the newspaper/media did not publish, but scientist have said all along in science principles, is that Herd Immunity generally takes 3 Generations to achieve without vaccine intervention. I understand not everyone get the idea of Herd Immunity. But get 70% of population vaccinated is the FIRST step and to speed up the process and to cut the 3 generation requirement. The virus will still transmit among general population, but hopefully the general population will build stronger immune response to it. What vaccines do currently is to be used as a force to reduce R₀ from over 1.1 (pandemic) to hopefully 0.5 or below. Once majority of the population got vaccinated and R₀ got reduced to an acceptable level, Covid-19 would be like a normal seasonal flu to most of the population. 

 

All vaccine doing is to help and to speed up the process, not intended to stop an individual get infected nor to eradicate the virus. None of the vaccine producer claims that. In fact it does publish the figure to tell you it is only 85-95% effective. In theory, all vaccinated people CAN still get infected. However, the immune system response would be depended on individual cases. 

[richard_smith237]

11 minutes ago, Kopitiam said:

These COVID-19 vaccines do not prevent you from infection.  I have a chill down my spine each time I hear an official says come here for a holiday, it is safe, our people have achieved herd immunity.

 

Vaccines do prevent infection - This is efficacy.

 

Tests have shown that Pfizer has an efficacy of *96% (before Delta Variant). 

 

i.e. If without a vaccine 100 people test positive for Covid-19, of those same 100 people, if vaccinated 96 of them would not test positive for Covid-19.

 

 

Edited July 14, 2021 by richard_smith237

[ChC1]

33 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Vaccines do prevent infection - This is efficacy.

 

Tests have shown that Pfizer has an efficacy of *96% (before Delta Variant). 

 

i.e. If without a vaccine 100 people test positive for Covid-19, of those same 100 people, if vaccinated 96 of them would not test positive for Covid-19.

 

 

I am all for vaccine and I wish everyone gets vaccinated. But, Covid vaccine does not prevent infection. You are wrong to assume that otherwise. I will quote the package leaflet information for AstraZeneca vaccine, It came with the package of the vaccine.

 

1, What Covid-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca and what it is used for? 

COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca is a vaccine used to protect people aged 18 years and older against COVID-19.

 

COVID-19 is caused by a virus called coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2).

 

COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca stimulates the body's natural defences (immune system). It causes the body to produce its own protection (antibodies) against the virus. This will help to protect you against COVID-19 in the future. None of the ingredients in this vaccine can cause COVID-19.

 

I would like you read the third paragraph from the manufacture leaflet in Question 1 which i quoted above. None of the vaccine prevent infection. Vaccine is to help you build antibodies. mRNA vaccine is the same although works differently. Virus can enter your body even if you had Moderna or Pfizer. The only difference between an unvaccinated and a vaccinated infected person is viral load. With AstraZeneca vaccine, the body recognise the virus and attacks it so the virus does not replicate itself to cause serious damages. But you can still carry the virus except in low viral loads that the PCR test may not be able to identify. For unvaccinated people, the virus go rampant in your body and replicate itself so fast that it cause severe symptoms very fast as the body immune system can not recognise it and deal with it. 

 

The highly effective Pfizer vaccine at 96% only means 96% of the vaccinated people will produce enough immune response that no viral loads can be identified by PCR tests. For the sake of science, all Pfizer vaccinated people can still 100% catch the virus and the odd number of Covid-19 virus can survive in their body. You can still be a carrier of this virus even if you inject 5 times of the Pfizer vaccine. 

 

We definitely need as many people get vaccinated as possible. But we can't tell people things that are not true. Zero Covid strategy pursued by Australia and China is unachievable. We need people to understand how vaccine works so people can remain vigilant before the next wave hit. This virus mutate too fast the current vaccine may not be enough to help this coming winter. 

[richard_smith237]

16 minutes ago, ChC1 said:

I am all for vaccine and I wish everyone gets vaccinated. But, Covid vaccine does not prevent infection. You are wrong to assume that otherwise. I will quote the package leaflet information for AstraZeneca vaccine, It came with the package of the vaccine.

 

1, What Covid-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca and what it is used for? 

COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca is a vaccine used to protect people aged 18 years and older against COVID-19.

 

COVID-19 is caused by a virus called coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2).

 

COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca stimulates the body's natural defences (immune system). It causes the body to produce its own protection (antibodies) against the virus. This will help to protect you against COVID-19 in the future. None of the ingredients in this vaccine can cause COVID-19.

 

I would like you read the third paragraph from the manufacture leaflet in Question 1 which i quoted above. None of the vaccine prevent infection. Vaccine is to help you build antibodies. mRNA vaccine is the same although works differently. Virus can enter your body even if you had Moderna or Pfizer. The only difference between an unvaccinated and a vaccinated infected person is viral load. With AstraZeneca vaccine, the body recognise the virus and attacks it so the virus does not replicate itself to cause serious damages. But you can still carry the virus except in low viral loads that the PCR test may not be able to identify. For unvaccinated people, the virus go rampant in your body and replicate itself so fast that it cause severe symptoms very fast as the body immune system can not recognise it and deal with it. 

 

The highly effective Pfizer vaccine at 96% only means 96% of the vaccinated people will produce enough immune response that no viral loads can be identified by PCR tests. For the sake of science, all Pfizer vaccinated people can still 100% catch the virus and the odd number of Covid-19 virus can survive in their body. You can still be a carrier of this virus even if you inject 5 times of the Pfizer vaccine. 

 

We definitely need as many people get vaccinated as possible. But we can't tell people things that are not true. Zero Covid strategy pursued by Australia and China is unachievable. We need people to understand how vaccine works so people can remain vigilant before the next wave hit. This virus mutate too fast the current vaccine may not be enough to help this coming winter. 

 

Your point seems to be that someone could "breathe in air / water vapour on which the SARS-CoV-2 virus is  present and then breath out particles with the SARS-CoV-2 again within a few hours or days”....  

 

But.. will the virus replicate within the body ??? nope, not to a degree which can be identified by a RT PCR test with 35 replication cycles. 

 

Will a vaccinated person test positive for Covid-19  ??????  in the case of Pfizer, 95% of those exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus will not. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RichardColeman]

2 hours ago, MajorTom said:

Yes. Seems to work fine. Nobody has any serious symptoms according to the article.

I'm not exactly sure that's a balanced argument.

 

I am no expert on the Thai navy. BUT, I would imagine most Thai sailors are NOT old, NOT obese, NOT unfit and NOT suffering from other health issues , unlike the Thai public that are currently dying.

 

As someone stuck in the UK, and the UK having deaths now usually 20-50 a day, I think it about time that the UK published daily figures of just how sick these people were and their issues before covid. It could be done very easily with low numbers and give us a better idea of the situation. 

[ChC1]

29 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Your point seems to be that someone could "breathe in air / water vapour on which the SARS-CoV-2 virus is  present and then breath out particles with the SARS-CoV-2 again within a few hours or days”....  

 

But.. will the virus replicate within the body ??? nope, not to a degree which can be identified by a RT PCR test with 35 replication cycles. 

 

Will a vaccinated person test positive for Covid-19  ??????  in the case of Pfizer, 95% of those exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus will not. 

 

 

You are obviously misinformed. 

 

But to answer your question:

1, I never said that. You are assuming and out words in my mouth.

2, There is no evidence. But the alarming thing is Pfizer CEO said a September/Winter booster shot is need. Also look at the example of Israel, one needs to be vigilant.

3, Pfizer never claims its vaccine can prevent infection. It only says based on its study by a certain time, approximated a percentage of participant in the trial did not test for positive. All information and trail data is only valid to the point the trail concluded.   

 

Good luck.

[1FinickyOne]

2 hours ago, BE88 said:

the director of a hospital confirmed that the hospitalized are 50% 50% of the vaccinated and unvaccinated. This information is kept secret and undisclosed.

 

so, the director is not very good at keeping a secret? or is it you?

[MajorTom]

18 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

I'm not exactly sure that's a balanced argument.

 

I am no expert on the Thai navy. BUT, I would imagine most Thai sailors are NOT old, NOT obese, NOT unfit and NOT suffering from other health issues , unlike the Thai public that are currently dying.

 

As someone stuck in the UK, and the UK having deaths now usually 20-50 a day, I think it about time that the UK published daily figures of just how sick these people were and their issues before covid. It could be done very easily with low numbers and give us a better idea of the situation. 

Agreed. Fair point. I dont think covid is particularly dangerous for any fit and young military crew.

The article is actually about the British Navy, but that shuold not make a big difference.

 

Real world data has showed however that certain vaccines have been very effective for populations in general.

[impulse]

5 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

Op what is your point: 

 

Assuming the British Navy were vaccinated with Pfizer which reportedly has a 96% efficacy.

 

100 people of a 3,700 strong crew contracted Covid-19 - thats 2.7% and well within the efficacy rates.

 

None of the sailors suffered serious effects.

 

The vaccine did exactly what it was supposed to do.

 

Credit the vaccine if you like.  But the odds of a person that young needing any treatment is pretty much nil, with or without the vaccine.

 

[richard_smith237]

3 hours ago, impulse said:

 

Credit the vaccine if you like.  But the odds of a person that young needing any treatment is pretty much nil, with or without the vaccine.

 

Plenty of young people have been made unwell by Covid-19. 

 

On a ship of 3700 people it could be fair to assume that all 3700 were exposed to Covid-19 - yet 100 tested positive. 

 

No matter which optics this is viewed though - it is clear the vaccines have been effective. 

 

 

[Danderman123]

15 hours ago, BE88 said:

 

Your statement is not correct, the director of a hospital confirmed that the hospitalized are 50% 50% of the vaccinated and unvaccinated. This information is kept secret and undisclosed.

 

 

https://twitter.com/TCBPubHealth/status/1414703474734944257?s=20

 

Here is information from Mississippi that is not secret. These are mostly Delta variant patients.

Edited July 15, 2021 by Danderman123

[Scott]

Off-topic post and reply removed.

 

[stevenl]

18 hours ago, BE88 said:

 

Your statement is not correct, the director of a hospital confirmed that the hospitalized are 50% 50% of the vaccinated and unvaccinated. This information is kept secret and undisclosed.

 

 

He confirmed it but it is kept secret. Hmm

[WhiteBuffaloATM]

Herd Immunity (Proper Defintion) is Proven Scientific Fact. Beliefs Irrelevant.

“certain” vax ? say it; USA/ UK developed / made / approved vax only......

Selecting a tiny group of fit military types , for biased negative false alarmist “analysis”, is not remotely scientific / relevant for any general population.

Western Vax did (Alpha)or will soon (Delta) prevent virtually all Deaths & Hospital Cases. Period.

Asymptomatic Immortality Unavailable as yet.

Human Collective Insanity will be an ever -present “virus” unfortunately.

 

[boogiewoogie]

On 7/14/2021 at 12:22 PM, richard_smith237 said:

Op what is your point: 

 

Assuming the British Navy were vaccinated with Pfizer which reportedly has a 96% efficacy.

 

100 people of a 3,700 strong crew contracted Covid-19 - thats 2.7% and well within the efficacy rates.

 

None of the sailors suffered serious effects.

 

The vaccine did exactly what it was supposed to do.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mate, u are really bad with math. 3200 crew. It doesnt mean all of them were exposed))

[richard_smith237]

8 minutes ago, boogiewoogie said:

On 7/14/2021 at 12:22 PM, richard_smith237 said:

Op what is your point: 

 

Assuming the British Navy were vaccinated with Pfizer which reportedly has a 96% efficacy.

 

100 people of a 3,700 strong crew contracted Covid-19 - thats 2.7% and well within the efficacy rates.

 

None of the sailors suffered serious effects.

 

The vaccine did exactly what it was supposed to do.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expand  

Mate, u are really bad with math. 3200 crew. It doesnt mean all of them were exposed))

Better at Mathematics than you are at reading wouldn’t you say ???

 

 

 

[Quote: The virus has spread through the strike group’s 3,700 strength crew despite them being fully vaccinated]

 

On a navy vessel, everyone working, eating, sleeping in close quarters......  The possibility that all or the vast majority of the sailors were not exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus is perhaps more unrealistic. 

 

Now... back to your Math, try some reading too... 

 

 

 

[boogiewoogie]

4 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Better at Mathematics than you are at reading wouldn’t you say ???

 

 

 

[Quote: The virus has spread through the strike group’s 3,700 strength crew despite them being fully vaccinated]

 

On a navy vessel, everyone working, eating, sleeping in close quarters......  The possibility that all or the vast majority of the sailors were not exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus is perhaps more unrealistic. 

 

Now... back to your Math, try some reading too... 

 

 

 

Yeah, all 3200 were exposed to virus. Keep dreaming mate. 

[richard_smith237]

7 minutes ago, boogiewoogie said:

Yeah, all 3200 were exposed to virus. Keep dreaming mate. 

Your argument may develop some credibility if you started off with the correct number... 

 

Repeat after me... Three, thousand, seven hundred.... 3...7... 0... 0... 

 

How many would YOU think were exposed.. ???

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[asiam110]

On 7/14/2021 at 4:34 AM, BE88 said:

 

Your statement is not correct, the director of a hospital confirmed that the hospitalized are 50% 50% of the vaccinated and unvaccinated. This information is kept secret and undisclosed.

 

 

Secret and undisclosed, que xfiles music and somehow you remain the lucky recipient of such precious information through the the friend of your wife's friend who works with a friend that works on the ward etc.. ready to be repeated on a barstool with the tagline 'if i told you what I did Id have to kill you'.