Thailand could see 500,000 more infections if the country rushes reopening

[mstevens]

19 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Considering the very low vaccination rate of the general population I would go far as to say it would be complete madness to stick with the October opening..

It just isn't ready, better to say January 2022 and go all out this year to get vaccinations completed.

Even when Thailand has a high vaccination rate (let's say 85%+), I expect new daily infections will still be producing significant numbers (in the thousands) and deaths (in the dozens). I believe this will be the case because A) Thailand has used a lot of not particularly effective Chinese vaccines  B) The efficacy of even the mRNA vaccines subsides over time  C) Thais are very social people and I just don't think they will adapt well to social distancing.

 

At the risk of being negative, I don't see the vaccines as the answer. Even with the best vaccines and a booster program where people get a booster shot every 8 or 9 months, COVID is going to run rampant in Thailand. Due to this there will be all sorts of hassles travelling such as PCR tests before departure and on arrival as well as various other restrictions - all of which will increase prices - and as such I think this is going to put the vast majority of people off long-distance travel. Until there is either an even more effective vaccine or an effective medication to treat COVID, I think tourism as we knew it all around the world is on permanent hold.

 

[The Cipher]

25 minutes ago, mstevens said:

At the risk of being negative, I don't see the vaccines as the answer. Even with the best vaccines and a booster program where people get a booster shot every 8 or 9 months, COVID is going to run rampant in Thailand. Due to this there will be all sorts of hassles travelling such as PCR tests before departure and on arrival as well as various other restrictions - all of which will increase prices - and as such I think this is going to put the vast majority of people off long-distance travel. Until there is either an even more effective vaccine or an effective medication to treat COVID, I think tourism as we knew it all around the world is on permanent hold.

I think this is unncecessarily pessimistic. In every case where restrictions have been lifted we've seen a tremendous return of demand. Las Vegas would be a good example. We're also seeing heavily vaccinated countries in North America and Europe reopening their borders to tourism, albeit limited to vaccinated travelers in many cases. But by any measure the vaccines have been highly effective in mitigating many of the worst impacts of Covid. And moreover, as a species we have been very successful at innovating relatively effective solutions to the pandemic in record time. There's no reason to believe that we won't continue to do so.

 

Beyond the success of vaccines, we're also starting to see more pushback against heavy restrictions from fatigued populaces. Harsh restrictions were politically palatable because people were scared of a novel virus. But in the macro, Covid is not really that dangerous to us as a species (don't @ me). And if the political benefit of implementing restrictions starts to subside (ie, enough people lose their fear of the virus), there are very viable paths to coexisting with Covid and managing its impact on our societies and lives.

 

Of course it's not a sure thing that we'll be able to contain Covid or that just living with it will ever become widely accepted. But if I had to bet, I'd expect international travel numbers to be greater in six months, and certainly in a year, than they are now.

[Stargeezr]

When I read the Cipher post that COVID is not that dangerous. What are you on about, do you want COVID to be as deadly as Ebola?

   Without the vaccines, and measures that the world took with mask wearing and staying apart in areas where we all

could, COVID would likely be even deadlier than the Spanish flu was. There are still people who are dying each day from

COVID and yet some posters here think that it is not deadly enough, Amazing..  I just hope that by the end of this year, the amount of

people in Thailand who have had their 2 shots are at least over 50 percent. Until all the children can also be vaccinated, or nasal 

sprayed, etc. against the COVID virus we will not be over this pandemic. Do not forget that some countries like Africa, and the 

countries that have internal wars going on, do not have many of their population vaccinated.  How about the refugee camps

in many countries, how many of those people have been vaccinated? Of course there will be people who are willing to take a chance

to travel somewhere, as some people still think that they are bullet proof against COVID because of their age. My  40 year old, ex relative

who was an anti vaxxer thought like that, but now he does not need a vaccine as he is dead and has been cremated as well.

The pandemic continues, and I just hope that everyone gets the vaccine.

Geezer

 

[tandor]

13 hours ago, RocketDog said:

Be very careful about criticizing the content of webfact or any ASEANnow authored reports. I did and got suspended.

...i did too, for 5 days for criticizing an article where the important facts regarding Sars Covi-2 were totally misleading.

[utalkin2me]

We could see a lot of deaths if we continue to let people drive 100 kph too. So why is nobody talking about that? Oh that’s right, because covid has made everybody maniacally insane. 

[rabang]

2 hours ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

When I read the Cipher post that COVID is not that dangerous. What are you on about, do you want COVID to be as deadly as Ebola?

   Without the vaccines, and measures that the world took with mask wearing and staying apart in areas where we all

could, COVID would likely be even deadlier than the Spanish flu was. There are still people who are dying each day from

COVID and yet some posters here think that it is not deadly enough, Amazing..  I just hope that by the end of this year, the amount of

people in Thailand who have had their 2 shots are at least over 50 percent. Until all the children can also be vaccinated, or nasal 

sprayed, etc. against the COVID virus we will not be over this pandemic. Do not forget that some countries like Africa, and the 

countries that have internal wars going on, do not have many of their population vaccinated.  How about the refugee camps

in many countries, how many of those people have been vaccinated? Of course there will be people who are willing to take a chance

to travel somewhere, as some people still think that they are bullet proof against COVID because of their age. My  40 year old, ex relative

who was an anti vaxxer thought like that, but now he does not need a vaccine as he is dead and has been cremated as well.

The pandemic continues, and I just hope that everyone gets the vaccine.

Geezer

 

Millions and millions of people die of different reasons not related to covid every year and no one bats an eyelid. Sure, if some people want to stay home waiting for 110% of the world population to receive 10 vaccines against covid they are free to do so but just don't expect everyone else to put their lives on hold indefinitely. Children won't need mass vaccinations as far as I can tell based on various experts, or at least it certainly won't happen anyway for various reasons, not for many years at least. It is not the fear of disease that is keeping people off traveling but the restrictions and inconvenience. Without them I would live my life as normally as ever and I see many many people feel the same.

[jacko45k]

Just now, rabang said:

Millions and millions of people die of different reasons not related to covid every year and no one bats an eyelid.

Bad start and tosh.... I am quite certain their deaths have impact upon their friends and family. 

[brewsterbudgen]

1 minute ago, jacko45k said:

Bad start and tosh.... I am quite certain their deaths have impact upon their friends and family. 

Of course. But there are not endless threads on Forums like this discussing them.

[rabang]

1 minute ago, jacko45k said:

Bad start and tosh.... I am quite certain their deaths have impact upon their friends and family. 

Not everyone has friends and family, but ok, no one outside the circle of their loved ones.

[The Cipher]

2 hours ago, rabang said:

Millions and millions of people die of different reasons not related to covid every year and no one bats an eyelid. Sure, if some people want to stay home waiting for 110% of the world population to receive 10 vaccines against covid they are free to do so but just don't expect everyone else to put their lives on hold indefinitely.

This comment is actually correct, but I suspect it won't play well here. There's too many people who aren't able to separate subjective values judgment from universal truth. It is what it is.

 

2 hours ago, rabang said:

It is not the fear of disease that is keeping people off traveling but the restrictions and inconvenience. Without them I would live my life as normally as ever and I see many many people feel the same.

I feel this way as well. And a large portion of the population does too, but with the caveat that they need to be told by authority figures that it's safe to travel. Ie, in addition to restrictions, they are sensitive to public health guidelines and press coverage. For travel, that seem to shape perceptions more than actual virus levels. (Source: I am a professional investment analyst with a sector specialization on casinos and hospitality. To do my job I monitor data and sentiments about this topic on an ongoing basis.)

 

The demand is still there and it is strong. Just have a quick chat with anyone under the age of 50 and ask if they're planning to travel after borders reopen. It's probably well over 50% that will say yes. Beyond that, travel and tourism account for 10% of global GDP and 319 million jobs. The industry is entrenched and it probably isn't going anywhere.

[rabang]

26 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

This comment is actually correct, but I suspect it won't play well here. There's too many people who aren't able to separate subjective values judgment from universal truth. It is what it is.

 

I feel this way as well. And a large portion of the population does too, but with the caveat that they need to be told by authority figures that it's safe to travel. Ie, in addition to restrictions, they are sensitive to public health guidelines and press coverage. For travel, that seem to shape perceptions more than actual virus levels. (Source: I am a professional investment analyst with a sector specialization on casinos and hospitality. To do my job I monitor data and sentiments about this topic on an ongoing basis.)

 

The demand is still there and it is strong. Just have a quick chat with anyone under the age of 50 and ask if they're planning to travel after borders reopen. It's probably well over 50% that will say yes. Beyond that, travel and tourism account for 10% of global GDP and 319 million jobs. The industry is entrenched and it probably isn't going anywhere.

I deal with enough people both in real life and online to know that what you say is well in tune with what they desire. The most vocal pessimists have often isolated themselves maybe too much and so focused on covid that they have become myopic and haven't been able to notice that the world around them is starting to move forward again. According to reports for example the European tourist destinations have been packed this summer, and not only of domestic visitors unlike a year ago.

[utalkin2me]

1 hour ago, The Cipher said:

This comment is actually correct, but I suspect it won't play well here. There's too many people who aren't able to separate subjective values judgment from universal truth. It is what it is.

 

I feel this way as well. And a large portion of the population does too, but with the caveat that they need to be told by authority figures that it's safe to travel. Ie, in addition to restrictions, they are sensitive to public health guidelines and press coverage. For travel, that seem to shape perceptions more than actual virus levels. (Source: I am a professional investment analyst with a sector specialization on casinos and hospitality. To do my job I monitor data and sentiments about this topic on an ongoing basis.)

 

The demand is still there and it is strong. Just have a quick chat with anyone under the age of 50 and ask if they're planning to travel after borders reopen. It's probably well over 50% that will say yes. Beyond that, travel and tourism account for 10% of global GDP and 319 million jobs. The industry is entrenched and it probably isn't going anywhere.

It’s always nice to see some good posts in here. They don’t come very frequently. 
 

People are not scared at all. Of course they would be traveling right now. When people are actually scared we will all know it. They’re not even close. However, people do get scared when they should be via instincts etc. Go talk to a 6 year old and let me know how scared they are. There’s an important point in there somewhere; namely that this situation isn’t nearly as bad as we are told on a daily basis, and our instincts are telling us this. Govts and news are reporting otherwise. 
 

This is a pandemic of the human mind more than anything else. 
 

 

[rabang]

Quote

Ryanair is expecting a "very strong recovery" in European short-haul flights, according to its chief executive, Michael O'Leary.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58394898

 

Quote

Ryanair sees passenger numbers recover to three-quarters of pre-pandemic level

https://news.sky.com/story/ryanair-sees-passenger-numbers-recover-to-three-quarters-of-pre-pandemic-level-12397290

 

I think we can stop worrying about people being too scared to fly for the tourism sector to recover as long as there are not too many restrictions set by governments.

[VBF]

On 8/26/2021 at 5:37 AM, utalkin2me said:

It’s always nice to see some good posts in here. They don’t come very frequently. 
 

People are not scared at all. Of course they would be traveling right now. When people are actually scared we will all know it. They’re not even close. However, people do get scared when they should be via instincts etc. Go talk to a 6 year old and let me know how scared they are. There’s an important point in there somewhere; namely that this situation isn’t nearly as bad as we are told on a daily basis, and our instincts are telling us this. Govts and news are reporting otherwise. 
 

This is a pandemic of the human mind more than anything else. 

 

Led by the "Twitterati" and "F**kwitbookers" who mistake (UN)Social Media for news. ????

Edited September 5, 2021 by VBF