By Panithan Onthaworn

 

Thailand could see an additional 500,000 Covid-19 cases and 7,500 fatalities by the end of the year if the prime minister’s reopening plan in October remains on track, a medical professor said on Tuesday.

 

This includes likely unreported cases and asymptomatic cases, said Dr Thira Woratanarat, a professor of medicine at Chulalongkorn University, on his Facebook page.

 

Thira added that the impact of Covid-19 went beyond statistics. 

 

Discover Cigna’s range of health insurance solutions created for expats and local nationals living in Thailand - click to view

 

Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/31671/thailand-could-see-500000-more-infections-if-the-country-rushes-reopening/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2021-08-24

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow ASEAN NOW on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

 

why? as far as the sandbox goes, its not the vaccinated, tested new international arrivals that are feeding the outbreak and rises of positive cases in Phuket

Its the local thai's an burmese migrants

Edited August 24, 20214 yr by zzzzz

This doc doesn't have any shares in the tourist industry, I take it? In contrast to others? 

Edited August 24, 20214 yr by RotBenz8888

Of course reopening borders freely will welcome a surge in cases. But the alternative is to let many industries collapse and leave millions jobless to starve. So, keep on vaccinating and hopefully by year end they can make it happen. I think October is too early but if they keep increasing vaccines orders and rollout, 2022 might offer some hope and relief.

The word "could" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.    Seems you can say whatever you like nowadays without needing to provide a shred of evidence so long as you prefix whatever nonsense comes next with "could".   The media will report it, so long as what follows is scary enough for the already scared rabbits to continue their cycle of fear.   

 

"This includes unreported and asymptotic cases" in pre covid language would mean "this includes healthy people who are not ill".    

1 hour ago, webfact said:

This includes likely unreported cases and asymptomatic cases,

Poof! and all of a sudden there were thousands of unreported cases. Unlike now.

 

The real problem will possibly not come from" Sandboxers " if the Country reopens.

The major threat will come from the Thousands ( 470+ K ) Foreign workers that Thailand is proposing are allowed to renter the Country due to a massive labour shortage in all kinds of Industrial Sectors from Food, to Farming to Construction.

Who will Police the movements of these Workers once they are in the Country, and that will just be the legal ones that entered.

The flood gates will be opened wide again for illegal entry, and Thailand has proved time and again, that they are not capable of sealing their porous Borders.

Along with these legal and illegal workers will come many who are unvaccinated, and possibly infected

A disaster waiting to start me thinks, and wave 4 of the virus will soon start.

Hilarious, they're going to see 500k new infections regardless of whether the country reopens or not.

It's just a matter of how long it takes to get to that number.

 

People will only come if things are opened up, they might as well not bother if there's still lockdowns in place.

 

Nothing will stop the rising infection numbers.

Cases don't matter. These can be false positives, infections in people who don't even notice, infections in people who aren't seriously ill.

 

They should only be allowed to report deaths and serious illness and this news must be balanced against suicides and other costs of lock downs.

 

People who feel vulnerable can be given the option to isolate. Some vulnerable people may choose to live a free life over hiding at home and seeing the country suffer.

 

 

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand could see an additional 500,000 Covid-19 cases and 7,500 fatalities by the end of the year if the prime minister’s reopening plan in October remains on track, a medical professor said on Tuesday.

So, now you need to be a professor to state that everything is a possibility. Fantastic!

If it be by end of year or into the next it is a no brainer that that number of people infected is extremely conservative. Many, if not  most, will go under the radar of testing or symptomatic detection . The more important ongoing issue of concern and priority is to provide all and any effective measures to minimize the accumulated impact of not only the viral infections but extended  social and economic disruptions. Vaccine and vaccinations are obviously core to the problem for Thailand at this time but it need be in conjunction with genuine transparency from whatever "authorities"  control and organize.

The repercussions that this "global pandemic" is having will eventually permanently change many of the assumptions of normality as has been assumed  as established.

DEspite Thailand being "late to the game" of procuring adequate vaccines to facilitate  recommendations by virtue of initially escaping early impact of covid-19 (maybe) now the incidence of and social expectations , if not commercial ones, require a more satisfactory response.

Strangely ,and controversialy  for some, Thailand  has as yet not been impacted "statistically" as some of it's  nearest neighbours such as  Malaysia in real terms.  Globally the "war" is almost at  stalemate and perhaps even being lost by humans'z!

On top of all of the grass roots social implications is the geopolitical manipulations that pay lip service to human fodder in dominant interests in profit and status.

 

 

They seem to drag out a doctor for provocative comments every day!  This is just today's example.  Tomorrow there'll be another, with a completely different prediction!

The good doctor should also do the math on just how damaging lockdowns are long-term to physical and mental health of the economically active Thai population.

3 hours ago, ukrules said:

Hilarious, they're going to see 500k new infections regardless of whether the country reopens or not.

It's just a matter of how long it takes to get to that number.

 

People will only come if things are opened up, they might as well not bother if there's still lockdowns in place.

 

Nothing will stop the rising infection numbers.

Around 1m cases in 4.5 months so far, with another 500,000 until late September (or early/mid October). Has nothing to do with reopening...

What's he know?

 

He's just a doctor.

Thailand will have another million cases before this is over no matter what they try

7 hours ago, MrJ2U said:

What's he know?

 

He's just a doctor.

There's literally 1 doctor a day taking the spotlight saying something different.

Would be interesting to keep a record of all the wrong predicitions been made by doctors since January 2020.

12 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

The real problem will possibly not come from" Sandboxers " if the Country reopens.

The major threat will come from the Thousands ( 470+ K ) Foreign workers that Thailand is proposing are allowed to renter the Country due to a massive labour shortage in all kinds of Industrial Sectors from Food, to Farming to Construction.

Who will Police the movements of these Workers once they are in the Country, and that will just be the legal ones that entered.

The flood gates will be opened wide again for illegal entry, and Thailand has proved time and again, that they are not capable of sealing their porous Borders.

Along with these legal and illegal workers will come many who are unvaccinated, and possibly infected

A disaster waiting to start me thinks, and wave 4 of the virus will soon start.

In that case there is a quite simple fix.

Keep the land borders shut and only allow foriegn entry from international flights. 

 

Of course it will not happen though,

 as rich, greedy Thai industry will say they are pushing for tourists, but really just want slave labour Burmese to make them that much richer.

 

Its not just Thailand either.

The most paranoid country on earth, Australia, will not even allow there OWN citizens back in the country unhindered, yet are now considering special visas for cheap migrant labour to help greedy industries bottom line.

Disgusting.

14 hours ago, BKKTRAVELER said:

Of course reopening borders freely will welcome a surge in cases. But the alternative is to let many industries collapse and leave millions jobless to starve. So, keep on vaccinating and hopefully by year end they can make it happen. I think October is too early but if they keep increasing vaccines orders and rollout, 2022 might offer some hope and relief.

what, like sinovac ?

 

people on here have been saying this for weeks yet they still keep buying millions of doses

 

Chinese-made vaccines not effective against Delta variant after one dose - Thailand News - ASEAN NOW formerly Thai Visa Forum

Edited August 24, 20214 yr by smedly

1 hour ago, Anton9 said:

There's literally 1 doctor a day taking the spotlight saying something different.

Would be interesting to keep a record of all the wrong predicitions been made by doctors since January 2020.

might be worth spending your time recording and publishing all the government statements and claims from Jan 2021, now that would be a good read

8 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

They seem to drag out a doctor

who is "they"

11 hours ago, LongTimeLurker66 said:

Cases don't matter. These can be false positives, infections in people who don't even notice, infections in people who aren't seriously ill.

 

They should only be allowed to report deaths and serious illness and this news must be balanced against suicides and other costs of lock downs.

 

People who feel vulnerable can be given the option to isolate. Some vulnerable people may choose to live a free life over hiding at home and seeing the country suffer.

 

 

oh dear

14 hours ago, James105 said:

The word "could" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.    Seems you can say whatever you like nowadays without needing to provide a shred of evidence so long as you prefix whatever nonsense comes next with "could".   The media will report it, so long as what follows is scary enough for the already scared rabbits to continue their cycle of fear.   

 

"This includes unreported and asymptotic cases" in pre covid language would mean "this includes healthy people who are not ill".    

well yes the healthy people are generally not in danger with this strain of the virus but they pose a risk to those that are because they spread it - have you not been paying attention ?, your grand idea seems to be to just throw millions of people under a bus - really bright idea 

 

I wonder what you'd be thinking if this virus mutated into a deadlier version that put everyone at risk (which could still happen) what tremendous plan would you come up with then ????

 

and just consider this - so far covid 19 has killed and estimated 4,463,337 (likely underestimated), if you include the suspected real death total in India alone that would add another conservative 3m deaths to that total - so it is more like 7 million have died 

11 hours ago, LongTimeLurker66 said:

Cases don't matter. These can be false positives, infections in people who don't even notice, infections in people who aren't seriously ill.

 

They should only be allowed to report deaths and serious illness and this news must be balanced against suicides and other costs of lock downs.

 

People who feel vulnerable can be given the option to isolate. Some vulnerable people may choose to live a free life over hiding at home and seeing the country suffer.

 

 

Excellent post. 

1 hour ago, pookondee said:

In that case there is a quite simple fix.

Keep the land borders shut and only allow foriegn entry from international flights. 

In Thailand there are no "simple fixes:" only rhetorical flights of fancy proclaimed as truth by various actors with different agendas.

 

Yours may be as valid as the others, although it begs the question of which is more vital to the economy: tourists, or cheap labor.

 

My "flight of fancy:" 100% control of borders with all incoming first checked for Covid, then, if they pass, if unvaccinated: vaccination + quarantine. No pass: no entry.

 

Next up; rename Thailand "Xanadu."

17 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand could see an additional 500,000 Covid-19 cases and 7,500 fatalities by the end of the year if the prime minister’s reopening plan in October remains on track, a medical professor said on Tuesday

Considering the very low vaccination rate of the general population I would go far as to say it would be complete madness to stick with the October opening..

It just isn't ready, better to say January 2022 and go all out this year to get vaccinations completed.

15 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

The flood gates will be opened wide again for illegal entry, and Thailand has proved time and again, that they are not capable of sealing their porous Borders.

Or willing, many are aided and abetted by Thais, including border officials and unscrupulous employers.

That’s conservative. In the US we’ve seen how 100 deaths can go to 1000 in no time flat.

 

This government is botching this thing horribly.

They are going to see millions more cases no matter what. Just open up to the vaccinated and at least don't kill even more due to lack of income. Stop with all the idiot temp checks and nose swabs to asymptomatic people too.

....statistics are all wrong..no country has recorded 7,500 deaths per 500,000 infections..more like 2%...come on Mr. Reporter...get it right.