CCSA warns COVID infections may surge in October if guard lowered

[jacko45k]

2 hours ago, mickyr55 said:

Far greater risk for driving when is government ban for that arriving. 

What on earth has driving got to do with this topic?

Rhetorical of course, because it is NOTHING!

 

[tomacht8]

2 minutes ago, brucec64 said:

That's if everyone in Thailand got Covid. I know that's not very realistic, but still the upward boundary. 1% of 70m.

Ok. 

My argument is that the connection between the many, many lockdown measures and the development of the C19 case numbers can only be presented very imprecisely and is / was in some cases made intuitively.

 

In theory, it would be possible to eliminate C19 if everyone without exception locked themselves in for 14 days without any contact with others. Probably impracticable. The other extreme would be full opening without restrictions. It is not practiced either.

 

Then the forecast development of the number of cases, if there "ohh god disaster, disaster", the shopping centers open again. Meanwhile, the Kerry Delivery Guy delivers his 50-100 parcels and visits a corresponding number of people. And the whole food panda troop is also on the go. And people all grab the fridge handle at 7-11.

 

From my point of view, all the lockdowns are overused. Sometimes they are nonsensical. Some measures are impractical, etc. I would like a little more courage. And those who have built up extreme fears for 1.5 years still have the opportunity to stay at home and isolate themselves as they see fit.

[buick]

29 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

yeap I also calculated the 1%. How did you get to 700K?

somebody had a serious modeling error to get 700k for deaths in thailand.  it is hard to be precise with these things.  they should be viewed as very rough estimates.  700k is way off.

 

many members can't tolerate seeing a generally positive statistic (the original post with a low death rate based on total population).  and there are so many of them, it can be overwhelming to try and 'manage' all their responses.  the fact is the death rate in thailand is very low relative to other countries and will likely stay that way until this 'thing' is over.

[RafPinto]

Why everything starts with CC

 

Have the Scheinese already fully taken over?

[ArcticFox]

16 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Thailand’s Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) Spokesman Dr. Taweesin Visanuyothin warned today (Monday) that new infections, which have been slowing, may surge again in mid-October because of the easing of lockdown restrictions, unless members of the public keep their guard up.

 

No wonder most of the public are suffering from severe whiplash.  I'd say that most of the plebs are on the verge of becoming unhinged.  It's the new normal equivalent to Shaken Baby Syndrome.  

Close close close.
Fear fear fear.
Open open open.
Money money money.
Fear fear fear.
Close close close.
Fear fear fear.
Money money money.
Open open open.
Close close close.
Fear fear fear...............

[boogiewoogie]

41 minutes ago, brucec64 said:

That's if everyone in Thailand got Covid. I know that's not very realistic, but still the upward boundary. 1% of 70m.

Them mathematicians again.

 

U forgot one major fact. There are many many people. Like majority. Who doesnt test and still have covid. 2 days running nose and he good to go. Or no symptoms at all. 

So ur 1 percent is more like 0.1 percent or even lower.

[RafPinto]

13 minutes ago, ArcticFox said:

No wonder most of the public are suffering from severe whiplash.  I'd say that most of the plebs are on the verge of becoming unhinged.  It's the new normal equivalent to Shaken Baby Syndrome.  

Close close close.
Fear fear fear.
Open open open.
Money money money.
Fear fear fear.
Close close close.
Fear fear fear.
Money money money.
Open open open.
Close close close.
Fear fear fear...............

Is this an "ABBA" or "BEATLES" song?

[RPCVguy]

55 minutes ago, cjinchiangrai said:

A road death today does not create ten more next week. Covid does.

 

I agree with CCSA, keep things tight for a few more months to bring the vaccination numbers up.

Thank you! You are the first in this thread to point out that Covid-19 spreads exponentially, where one case leads to more  UNLESS PEOPLE PRACTICE SOCIAL DISTANCING. That has been the function enforced by the lockdowns that many here seem so intent upon ignoring.
Add in the problem that Thailand's push for vaccinating people has reached (on first doses) 32.9% of the population by the end of August vs only 19.5% at the beginning ... BUT it takes generally TWO DOSES to fully sensitize our immune systems to the molecular traits of the virus. Thailand (per https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-vaccinated-covid?country=THA~IDN~MYS~PHL~USA and related site data is only at 11.1% FULLY VACCINATED. Compare that to the results in the USA where even the lesser vaccinated states are over 39% fully vaccinated. https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker/

Thai people are helping get by with less vaccinations so far by being better at wearing masks, and by social distancing, but it will take several more months of high vaccination counts per day to get the risks of Covid caused hospitalizations down to levels where opening up can be safely done. Before that, the exponential growth of an opportunistic virus will stymie attempts to jump start the economy.

Oh, and People can also check the worldometers site and see Thailand has moved from 7th t0 6th position for number of Severe and Critical cases of Covid... This has got to be wearing heavily on all the Doctors and nurses, particularly those in the Dark Red zones..

[tomacht8]

59 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Let’s have a bit more honesty from you.

 

You don’t think you’re at any significant risk and you are happy for others to take their risk so long as you can get rid of the inconvenience of doing something to protect others.

And I don't quite agree with that either. inconvenient for some. But for many Thais the lockdowns have reached economic, existence-threatening proportions.

[Chomper Higgot]

34 minutes ago, boogiewoogie said:

Them mathematicians again.

 

U forgot one major fact. There are many many people. Like majority. Who doesnt test and still have covid. 2 days running nose and he good to go. Or no symptoms at all. 

So ur 1 percent is more like 0.1 percent or even lower.

And conveniently for your argument there isn’t no data to dispute it.

 

Actually there’s no data to support your argument either, but don’t let that stop you.

 

 

Edited September 7, 2021 by Chomper Higgot

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Let’s have a bit more honesty from you.

 

You don’t think you’re at any significant risk and you are happy for others to take their risk so long as you can get rid of the inconvenience of doing something to protect others.

Or a bit more honesty from you.

 

Covid doesn't really affect you much, apart from being a bit boring. So you're happy for the livelihoods and businesses of the less well off to be destroyed as long as you feel a bit safer and more virtuous.

[Ginner]

16 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

Nowbody lowering their guard. Some of these responsible health blah blah guys with a fixed monthly salary don't even know what it means to feed a family without income. Better these theoretical bla bla guys concentrate on their part and see that the population is supplied with effective vaccines.

Of course it will spike again, it's what's keeping these never seen, never known, never spoken of before people in the limelight. They have already moved the goal posts. NOW 2 vaccines aren't good enough, you have to fill a form in as well EVERYTIME you want to sit in a restaurant or go to a salon, barber and spar.

 

[Chomper Higgot]

The purpose of lockdowns is to prevent mass infections overwhelming health services.

 

I’ve yet to hear a single ‘Anti-Lockdown’ proponent address the question:

 

What would you do if you arrived at a hospital carrying your parent, your spouse or your child in desperate need of emergency treatment but find no beds available, no nurses, no doctors, no medicines, no oxygen - all swamped out?

 

I suggest compared to that lockdowns are by far the preferable option.

 

Of course timely delivery of vaccines is even more preferable, but many object to those too.

 

 

[gejohesch]

15 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Is it something you do often?

 

Speak for whole populations of people?

 

......

Your calculations are flawed.

 

You neglect to recognize the death rates you use are based on deaths with lockdowns and other precautions.

Not to mention: if "people were allowed to get on with their lives" without COVID-related restrictions:

1) go explain why to the "few" who die or who suffer of severe / long term complications ;

2) justify letting the medical facilities be overrun by COVID patients. With all the critics that can be addressed to the government and the hi-so manipulating clique, I still don't believe they would accept such a situation : it makes them look bad, it gives the country a bad name + all those COVID patients are taken away from the factories, hence a blow on the economy and losses for those who profit of the economy.

[NoshowJones]

15 hours ago, edwinchester said:

Supplying the population with effective vaccines is the job of covid-czar Prayut and his incompetent sidekick Anutin. Dr Taweesin's job is to advise the Govt on the possible consequences of their actions coming out of lockdown.

"Supplying the population with effective vaccines is the job of covid-czar Prayut and his incompetent sidekick Anutin." That's The Chuckle Brothers.  

• 
  
   

[Chomper Higgot]

29 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Or a bit more honesty from you.

 

Covid doesn't really affect you much, apart from being a bit boring. So you're happy for the livelihoods and businesses of the less well off to be destroyed as long as you feel a bit safer and more virtuous.

You have absolutely no idea how much COVID has effected me.

 

Your inability to even contemplate such a thing when making assumptions about a complete stranger suggest you probably don’t care about other people’s livelihoods either.

 

 

 

 

[AnotherFarang8]

Let me give a simple example of logic failure. According to scientists’ and doctors’ own claims, covid is more infectious than flu, especially the delta variant. According to statistics from previous years, up to 1 billion people over the world would fall sick to flu every year. Covid should have infected at least that many. But all we keep reading is that bs number of infections they keep peddling to us, much lower than the flu’s yearly. But based on their own research covid spreads faster or at least as fast as flu. Don’t start with masks stopping it, not those thin surgical masks that everyone wears anyhow, half of whom with their nose fully exposed.

 

Conclusion: covid has infected 1 billion people already. Likely more. You can’t claim covid is more infectious than flu and show the number of infections 5 times less than flu at the same time. It makes no sense. It’s either one or the other, not both claims at the same time. Just one example of mass scale brainwashing. Now you can do the math of mortality once you figure out the true number of infections.

 

It’s very likely covid infections reached half a billion or more in 2020 already, before any vaccinations began. Based on the same claim that it’s more infectious than flu. This claim was made as early as March 2020, it’s when i first read it and it was confirmed multiple times after that.

Edited September 7, 2021 by AnotherFarang8

[Chomper Higgot]

11 minutes ago, AnotherFarang8 said:

Let me give a simple example of logic failure. According to scientists’ and doctors’ own claims, covid is more infectious than flu, especially the delta variant. According to statistics from previous years, up to 1 billion people over the world would fall sick to flu every year. Covid should have infected at least that many. But all we keep reading is that bs number of infections they keep peddling to us, much lower than the flu’s yearly. But based on their own research covid spreads faster or at least as fast as flu. Don’t start with masks stopping it, not those thin surgical masks that everyone wears anyhow, half of whom with their nose fully exposed.

 

Conclusion: covid has infected 1 billion people already. Likely more. You can’t claim covid is more infectious than flu and show the number of infections 5 times less than flu at the same time. It makes no sense. It’s either one or the other, not both claims at the same time. Just one example of mass scale brainwashing. Now you can do the math of mortality once you figure out the true number of infections.

 

It’s very likely covid infections reached half a billion or more in 2020 already, before any vaccinations began. Based on the same claim that it’s more infectious than flu. This claim was made as early as March 2020, it’s when i first read it and it was confirmed multiple times after that.

Let me give you an even simpler example of your own logic failure.

 

You've forgotten to take the the global response to COVID into account. 

 

You are comparing apples and oranges.  

 

[tomacht8]

7 hours ago, nkg said:

 

Or to put it another way, Thailand's covid deaths (250 a day) are currently 4 times higher than Thailand's road deaths (62 a day).

 

I don't hear anyone saying that road deaths in Thailand are a minor problem ...

 

Well some another hard to digest numbers. And they are mathematically correct calculated on the reference date today!

 

On average over the past 10 years, 507,913 people died in Thailand each year.

 

Confirmed COVID-19 cases 1,280,534 +15,452

1.83% of the population

 

COVID 19 deaths 12,855 +224

1.46% of all deaths

 

Healed patients 894,302 +21,658

 

https://countrymeters.info/de/Thailand/coronavirus

 

[AnotherFarang8]

5 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Let me give you an even simpler example of your own logic failure.

 

You've forgotten to take the the global response to COVID into account. 

 

You are comparing apples and oranges.  

 

According to the recent fashion we are to live with covid. Last year’s and first half of this year’s fashion of lockdowns is being admitted to be ineffective and harmful. A mistake, if we get rid of politically correct terms and call a spade a spade. Vaccinations are not the silver bullet, Israel confirms. Global response can be considered a big failure no matter how you cook it. However, media is working non-stop to convince otherwise. It does not succeed on everyone, but many fall prey.

[sawadee1947]

18 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

feed a family without income.

I wonder what this has to do with gathering around without precautions, at least distance. ????

[tomacht8]

12 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

I wonder what this has to do with gathering around without precautions, at least distance. ????

Fear of opening shopping centers = supports lockdown of malls = lockdown means no job and no income for many Thais = problems to feed the family.

 

I haven't written anything about keeping distance or not. You constructed this causal connection.

[Chomper Higgot]

30 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

Well some another hard to digest numbers. And they are mathematically correct calculated on the reference date today!

 

On average over the past 10 years, 507,913 people died in Thailand each year.

 

Confirmed COVID-19 cases 1,280,534 +15,452

1.83% of the population

 

COVID 19 deaths 12,855 +224

1.46% of all deaths

 

Healed patients 894,302 +21,658

 

https://countrymeters.info/de/Thailand/coronavirus

 

Yet more over simplified math with faulty logic.

 

1. Almost all COVID deaths in Thailand have occurred in the past few weeks. 

So death count that is predominantly from a couple of months compared to other deaths from ten years of records.

 

2. You once again fail to take into account the COVID public health precautions.

 

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

30 minutes ago, AnotherFarang8 said:

According to the recent fashion we are to live with covid. Last year’s and first half of this year’s fashion of lockdowns is being admitted to be ineffective and harmful. A mistake, if we get rid of politically correct terms and call a spade a spade. Vaccinations are not the silver bullet, Israel confirms. Global response can be considered a big failure no matter how you cook it. However, media is working non-stop to convince otherwise. It does not succeed on everyone, but many fall prey.

Not a fashion

Nobody is admitting these things you claim.

Where did you drag ‘political correctness’ from?

Vaccines are demonstrated to reduce infections, reduce severity of symptoms, reduce deaths and reduce transmissions - refer link to evidence published in The Lancet.

Your ‘Israel’ reference has been debunked.

Conspiracy nonsense re the media noted.

Belief that you haven’t been fooled noted.

[sawadee1947]

7 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

Fear of opening shopping centers = supports lockdown of malls = lockdown means no job and no income for many Thais = problems to feed the family.

 

I haven't written anything about keeping distance or not. You constructed this causal connection.

Obviously you are not aware what you are posting. 

It's about lowering guard. 

And this has not anything to do with feeding a family or gathering around a mall. 

If you don't keep distance, exactly then you might catch covid. And if you got it you are not able to "feed you family."

Stay with the facts.... if you can

????

[tomacht8]

Just now, Chomper Higgot said:

Yet more over simplified math with faulty logic.

 

1. Almost all COVID deaths in Thailand have occurred in the past few weeks. 

So death count that is predominantly from a couple of months compared to other deaths from ten years of records.

 

2. You once again fail to take into account the COVID public health precautions.

 

 

 

These are very simple key figures. And are actual values = related to the past until today. You can find these key figures in every statistic worldwide. That has nothing to do with me and "faulty" math. It is just like that. Numbers are as of today. That numbers includes the deaths from the last few months.

 

From your point of view, the numbers should be encouraging. Why do you interpret the numbers as negative? The numbers are - in your opinion - the result of the many lockdown measures. I find it difficult to accept criticism of my "logic" then. Do you not see the contradiction in your statements?

[brucec64]

3 hours ago, boogiewoogie said:

Them mathematicians again.

 

U forgot one major fact. There are many many people. Like majority. Who doesnt test and still have covid. 2 days running nose and he good to go. Or no symptoms at all. 

So ur 1 percent is more like 0.1 percent or even lower.

That's the definition of an upward boundary - it means the worst case scenario, and that there most likely would be other factors that would reduce that number. 

[tomacht8]

7 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

Obviously you are not aware what you are posting. 

It's about lowering guard. 

And this has not anything to do with feeding a family or gathering around a mall. 

If you don't keep distance, exactly then you might catch covid. And if you got it you are not able to "feed you family."

Stay with the facts.... if you can

????

My criticism goes against the ultra tough lockdown advocates, and the original op is one of those. In general for you: All the lockdowns have led to joblessness and loss of income for many Thais.

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

15 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

These are very simple key figures. And are actual values = related to the past until today. You can find these key figures in every statistic worldwide. That has nothing to do with me and "faulty" math. It is just like that. Numbers are as of today. That numbers includes the deaths from the last few months.

 

From your point of view, the numbers should be encouraging. Why do you interpret the numbers as negative? The numbers are - in your opinion - the result of the many lockdown measures. I find it difficult to accept criticism of my "logic" then. Do you not see the contradiction in your statements?

You can find it as difficult as you like, it doesn’t alter the fact you are attempting to apply simple averages analyze a multi faceted public health crisis.

 

Your numbers don’t help or hinder my own point of view as they are so over simplified as to have no meaning.

 

I’m guessing, and I’m sure you can imagine it to be true, that Government Health Authorities and Public Health Scientists across the world are busy applying complex statistical models to assess the effectiveness of vaccines, masks, lockdowns etc.

 

They’re all coming up with more or less the same answers.

 

You aren’t going to crack this nut with simple averages, even if you made some changes to at least try and your input data right.

 

This complex public health crisis is not described by simple averages.

Edited September 7, 2021 by Chomper Higgot

[Fairynuff]

19 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

There will be a surge because the real numbers can now be posted. The PM won the debate. No need to lie any more.

When the surge comes , he can blame the people. No more alcohol folks!

Please stay on topic , this isn’t about Boris Johnson ????