"...i'm Afraid That This Crisis Is Not Over..."

[LaoPo]

"...I'm afraid that this crisis is not over..."

An amazing and very fascinating interview with Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University for his thoughts on the Constitutional Tribunal's ruling.

excerpt at the end of the interview:

Q. Again any final thoughts - there is the meeting of the acting Thai Rak Thai chief with Prime Minister Surayud on Monday and the constitutional reforms due in September, the lifting of the ban on political parties and hopefully elections in December - what you think is critical over the next few weeks?

"If all goes well, the draft constitution, the first draft has been criticised extensively. If they make enough amendments - they can go to referendum. I just don't think the referendum will pass because now a lot of people are disaffected. No one is happy in Thailand.

"And with the prospect of a failed referendum, the military may just derail the draft in the assembly and then pick a past constitution because the outcome is the same for them.

"And then you know with a military-preferred past constitution - people will protest likely and we may not get to the election day and if we do get to the election day, there is a problem of - question of legitimacy, question of inclusiveness, question of fairness of the political party system.

"These Thai Rak Thai supporters - the vast majority of the Thai electorate - they are the independent variable here. If they are not addressed and accommodated adequately - we are likely to see much more trouble ahead". - CNA/yy

Interview here:

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/ana.../279960/1/.html

LaoPo

[soundman]

It's an endless charade. As I have allready pointed out - 1 party politics is just around the corner...

What that means for the farang living here - I have no idea...

Soundman.

[ColPyat]

I fear the crises we see played out now is only the beginning of a far bigger crises that has been waiting to happen for a very long time. I am convinced that we will see a very turbulent decade here in Thailand.

[wintermute]

I fear the crises we see played out now is only the beginning of a far bigger crises that has been waiting to happen for a very long time. I am convinced that we will see a very turbulent decade here in Thailand.

I agree I get a very bad feeling that Thailand may have reached its peak in the 1999-2004 era and may be heading towards bad times. I'm not a doom and gloom herald but there are just too many things going on right now to ignore it such as the insurgency in the south..the political crisis..lack of democracy and resolve.. the future leadership.. the economic issues...This differs from previous critical periods in thai history because the future is even more uncertain because you know who is getting on in years and won't always be around to stabilize the country.

Edited June 3, 2007 by wintermute

[Jingthing]

The professor makes some good points, but alternatively, the new constitution isn't finished yet, and when it is finished, it might be acceptable enough when compared to giving the choice to the military. Two bad choices, one a little better, sounds like politics all over the world. So, I think it is possible the new constitution will pass, especially with some positive comments from he who cannot be mentioned.

[LaoPo]

So, I think it is possible the new constitution will pass, especially with some positive comments from he who cannot be mentioned.

Dr Thitinan Pongsudhirak:

"Otherwise the 14 million Thai Rak Thai supporters will feel alienated and will agitate. It will be difficult to deal with that. It will be very difficult for the military unless they want to appear increasingly like an open military dictatorship.

"So if they want to avoid that, somehow the Thai Rak Thai supporters have to be integrated into the fold. And this is something that is not taking place. I don't see any sign of it. The parties do not have a platform that appeals to these voters.

"The military has been not courting them at all nor has the interim government. This is a danger for Thailand in the long term. What happens to the Thai Rak Thai supporters. Unless they can be brought in, they are unlikely to go home quietly".

from:

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/ana.../279960/1/.html

note:

A lot of people forget that these 14 million people (mostly poor) represent a much larger group of people: people who are depending on these 14 million: their children, parents, grandparents and others who didn't vote for whatever reason, too young, old, sick or otherwise. Taken that into consideration this group easily could reach some 30-35 million people; more than 50% of the total Thai population and that's scary...

Their hopes chattered with the dissolution of the complete TRT and the ban of 111 party members. I think they could have lived with the ban of the politicians who were responsible for fraud and mis-behaviour but their straw of hope for a better life is gone with the total dissolution of the TRT.

I doubt very much if the Democrats -or any other (new) party- are able to win the hearts of those 14 million in a new election.

The coming months will tell what will happen with the new constitution and if the 14 million can and will accept that...

Roaring times in Thailand...

LaoPo