Krungsri Research Center: Omicron will hinder Thailand’s economic recovery

[snoop1130]

 

BANGKOK (NNT) - Krungsri Research Center has predicted that the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 will hinder Thailand’s economic recovery.

 

The center’s grim prediction came just as economic indicators for November 2021 showed positive signs in nearly all sectors, with the export sector showing the most improvement -- by 23.7% year-on-year -- due to demand from trading partners.

 

Nonetheless, the center noted that more visitors have made their way to the Kingdom since the national reopening campaign initiated in November.

 

Private consumption also showed a slight bump of 0.9% from the previous month, following the improvement of the COVID-19 situation and an increase in vaccination coverage during the period. Private investment increased by 4.3%, owing to recovering local and international demand.

 

In addition, the research center predicted three possible outcomes as a result of the intensifying COVID-19 situation after the New Year period.

 

In the first scenario, the number of daily infections would reach 11,000 cases in mid-February, with a daily death rate of 50 by the end of the month. This will result in a decrease of 0.6% in GDP.

 

In the second scenario, the number of daily cases and fatalities reach 16,000 and 100 respectively. This would set Thailand’s GDP back by 1.4%

 

In the worst-case scenario, the number of new patients and deaths per day could reach 32,000 and 300 people respectively, diminishing the GDP by 3%.

 

-- © Copyright NNT 2022-01-13

 

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[brommers]

Tell us something we didn't already know!

[cyril sneer]

14 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

visitors have made their way to the Kingdom since the national reopening campaign initiated in November.

I guess expats are visitors here too so can't argue that

[IAMHERE]

I think they are contributing too much of the economy to the comorbidity sector. Less than 30 a day since the beginning of Covid-19 anyways, the numbers seem to be predictions of the future, hard to do with any degree of accuracy.

[realfunster]

5 minutes ago, IAMHERE said:

Less than 30 a day since the beginning of Covid-19 anyways

Maybe I am misunderstanding your comment but they hit 300 daily deaths in August last year.

[realfunster]

15 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

In the worst-case scenario, the number of new patients and deaths per day could reach 32,000 and 300 people respectively, diminishing the GDP by 3%

I am not a statistician but let’s use the one of the most infected Omicron countries with reliable data as an example.

UK delta case peak : 60,000

UK delta death peak : 1,700

UK omicron case peak : 200,000 (3.3x delta)

UK omicron death peak : 400 (0.23x delta) (I note it could still go up due to lead time)

 

Thailand delta case peak : 20,000

Thailand delta death peak : 300

Thailand projected omicron case peak : 66,000 (doubtful Thailand will be doing enough tests to record this many +ves.)

Thailand projected omicron death peak : 71 (note deaths with a +ve Omicron test, as it so prevalent an increasing proportion of these numbers will be co-incidental and not a cause.)

 

We know testing is limited and erratic in Thailand and deaths are the more reliable metric.

To be adjusted +/- for other local factors - vaccination rates, types of vaccines, social restrictions & effectiveness etc.

 

So, likely their first two proposals of 50 & 100 daily deaths respectively, are in the ball park.

[Tropicalevo]

16 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

as a result of the intensifying COVID-19 situation

The problem is not the Covid situation.

The problem is the illegal government's knee-jerk reactions and flip-flopping clampdowns in response to Covid.

The government's determination to kill entertainment and nightlife, whilst people are struggling, is what will kill the economy.

There is very little point in building 'economic corridors' if the businesses keep insisting on employing cheap overseas (and often illegal) labour.

[Sydebolle]

So the new name for the government is Omicron then? 

[JulesMad]

On 1/13/2022 at 4:47 PM, snoop1130 said:

 Krungsri Research Center has predicted that the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 will hinder Thailand’s economic recovery. 

I can do better than that:
"JulesMad Research Center has predicted that the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 will hinder the world's economic recovery." (Yes, also Thailand....)
 

[Longwood50]

On 1/13/2022 at 4:47 PM, snoop1130 said:

Krungsri Research Center has predicted that the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 will hinder Thailand’s economic recovery.

Other major predictions by Krungsri include:

Thailand roads will become wet more often during the rainy season
Closing bars throughout Thailand will lower their expected profitability

Fewer tourists will result in lower occupancy rates in Thailand hotels
Banning alcohol sales will diminish the amount sold by breweries
Having a curfew will result in fewer people on the streets during curfew

Stay tuned for more ground breaking predictions from the experts.