3 Thais Found Infected With New Covid Strain XBB In Hong Kong

[cyril sneer]

8 hours ago, AhFarangJa said:

Meanwhile in 2025, the headline will be 23 people have been infected with the Covid Variant XXBBYYXXBVVZZBBBXX.

 

it's a matter of time before a strain comes along that wipes out the human race

 

probably not a bad thing

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, retiree said:

I'm just glad I live in Bangkok where pretty much everybody still wears masks.

Except notably for most of the newly arriving western tourists, as far as I can see... being a fellow BKKer who's out and around regularly.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 hours ago, Bday Prang said:

So called experts appearing from under their rocks repeatedly telling us that its going to  be  "Even worse this time" secure in the knowledge that when their doomsday predictions don't come true they will never be called out. 

 

6.5 million are "officially" dead from COVID worldwide since the start of 2020, and multiple studies say the real number of deaths is likely in the 15-20 million range.

 

COVID quickly became one of the top leading causes of death annually in the U.S., where they track and publicly report such things, for the past couple years.

 

And from a November 2021 report:

 

"Some credible analyses peg SARS-CoV-2 fatalities at closer to 17 million. This number places it firmly on the list of the deadliest pandemics in history, even though it has run for a far shorter time than others on the list.

 

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/historys-seven-deadliest-plagues

 

How much more "doomsday" do you want?

 

Edited October 14, 2022 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[retiree]

7 hours ago, polpott said:

As viruses evolve they tend to become more infectious but less harmful.

Uh, smallpox.  HIV.  Polio.  Ebola.  Rabies.   A little more than a century ago measles was both more lethal, and far more infectious than Covid-19, see e.g. 

https://jmvh.org/article/measles-mortality-in-the-armies-of-the-early-20th-century/  

https://www.science.org/content/article/how-europeans-brought-sickness-new-world 

Unless a virus were to kill an infected person almost immediately, there is little evolutionary benefit to a drop in lethality, which is why the viruses listed above and others were scourges for centuries or millennia before better public health systems and (in most cases) effective vaccines were developed.

 

Worse yet, even if what you said were true, and the fatality rate of Covid-19 declined by 90% (to roughly 0.1%, as opposed to the 1% average over the epidemic*), imagine what would happen if it were as contagious as the common cold, which hits about 80% of the population at least once a year.**   Total deaths would stay as they were last year.   And, as the TallGuy points out, every case is an opportunity for a new, more virulent mutation to emerge.  

 

From my pov, simple measures like masking are no more or less necessary for now than washing your hands in the bathroom -- the danger of any single encounter is extremely small, but the cumulative effect across society adds up.    Saying "oh, what's the point, shouldn't we learn to live with cholera?" (and a dozen other formerly common diseases) still seems ill-advised to me until the combination of incidence and mortality gets down (at least for one winter) to something like the historical hospitalization and death rate for influenza, which society has long been willing to accept.  

 

-- Retiree

* Google says worldwide 624 million cases, 6.56 million deaths = 1%. 

** https://www.statista.com/statistics/684010/frequency-of-catching-colds-adults-us-by-age/

 

[still kicking]

After reading all this I better get my 5th shot before I travel

[2baht]

13 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

6.5 million are "officially" dead from COVID worldwide since the start of 2020, and multiple studies say the real number of deaths is likely in the 15-20 million range.

WWIII, now where did it covid stem from? ????

[overherebc]

23 hours ago, Bday Prang said:

They have not  yet decided how to scare us again.  I'm waiting for the projected death count 

One news report saying arrivals from HK being checked at Swampy but not sure exactly what the checks are.

Edited October 15, 2022 by overherebc

[KhunBENQ]

On 10/14/2022 at 7:30 AM, AhFarangJa said:

Meanwhile in 2025, the headline will be 23 people have been infected with the Covid Variant XXBBYYXXBVVZZBBBXX.

 

I am so far behind. They finally gave up the Greek alphabet

And from 2025 we will all suffer from symptom free long Covid.

[AddyA]

On 10/14/2022 at 3:03 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

And the Sing. govt's own website indeed does show that their COVID hospitalizations have been increasing in recent weeks -- even if they believe the XBB variant has a lower hospitalization rate than a different variant.

 

The government's own website also shows the rise in COVID cases that's been occurring there in their latest wave.

I wish those who report grim facts would please take the time to include which demographic suffers most in these COVID updates.
 

Now, it shouldn't come as any surprise that Singaporeans are at high risk of infection. Everyone knows they are unfit and unwell due to poor lifestyle choices. In fact, estimates suggest that 400,000 Singaporeans already have diabetes in this tiny nation. And one-third of those don't even know they have the condition. Plus, people with diabetes are much more vulnerable to severe illness after they get coronavirus than healthy folks. Hence the rise in hospitilizations.
 

Source #1: https://www.singhealth.com.sg/rhs/keep-well/War-on-Diabetes 

Source #2: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-with-medical-conditions.html 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 minutes ago, AddyA said:

I wish those who report grim facts would please take the time to include which demographic suffers most in these COVID updates.
 

Now, it shouldn't come as any surprise that Singaporeans are at high risk of infection. Everyone knows they are unfit and unwell due to poor lifestyle choices. In fact, estimates suggest that 400,000 Singaporeans already have diabetes in this tiny nation. And one-third of those don't even know they have the condition. Plus, people with diabetes are much more vulnerable to severe illness after they get coronavirus than healthy folks. Hence the rise in hospitilizations.
 

Source #1: https://www.singhealth.com.sg/rhs/keep-well/War-on-Diabetes 

Source #2: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-with-medical-conditions.html 

 

 

The clear and stated reason why COVID cases and hospitalizations are rising in Singapore is because of COVID.

 

What role comorbidities like diabetes may play in those COVID case and hospitalization counts is unknown, because AFAIK, the health officials there are not linking those kind of details in their public reporting.

 

No doubt, people with diabetes in general are at higher risk of complications if they contract COVID, but advanced age itself has been reported as the largest single risk factor, and there's obesity and other conditions as well.

 

Regarding your cited 400,000 Singaporeans with diabetes figure, which is what their health department reports, that ends up accounting for less than 7% of Singapore's total population, which is about 6 million. So let's not get too carried away in presuming factually unsupported connections with their rising COVID case and hospitalization counts.

 

 

https://srv1.worldometers.info/world-population/singapore-population/

 

[Mr Derek]

So this one is even less lethal than omicron? (Meaning of course per-individual, not per-population). Where's the data?

 

I have done a modicum of research and have found no scientific paper that contradicts my theory that it is impossible for a virus to become more transmissible AND more lethal. If that were possible, humans would logically have been wiped out by viruses aeons ago. Someone above cites ebola etc to the contrary - but those are not widespread enough to mutate as rapidly as the coronavirus. If they were, they would surely become less lethal over time.

 

In any case, any illness is going to kill the most vulnerable. Evolution doesn't want the weakest to survive and breed. Viruses are arguably part of the natural process of maintaining fit populations. If humans prevent that happening, the long-term result will be a population of weaklings who have to live in plastic bubbles...

 

By the way, what's so scary about "oxygen assisted breathing"? There are oxygen concentrators widely available for a few thousand baht nowadays (and pulse oximetry gadgets for a few hundred) - you can sit at home with a tube in your nose all day if you need to boost your oxygen level. It should be part of normal self-treatment. No need for hospitalisation for mild cases. 

[retiree]

25 minutes ago, Mr Derek said:

I have done a modicum of research and have found no scientific paper that contradicts my theory that it is impossible for a virus to become more transmissible AND more lethal.

Uhh ... 

https://www.livescience.com/1918-flu-variant-deadlier-later-waves-lung-tissue.html

which I believe refers to this:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9090925/ 

 

Evolution doesn't want the weakest to survive and breed. 

Lol tell that to the male black widow spiders.   Or the next Neanderthal you run into ????   Evolution doesn't care about strength. 

-- Retiree 

[Eleftheros]

2 hours ago, retiree said:

Evolution doesn't care about strength. 

Interesting.

 

I wonder why Charles Darwin & Herbert Spencer put "the survival of the fittest" at the center of their theories of evolution.

[retiree]

I see your Goliath, and raise you David.  

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survival_of_the_fittest

While the phrase "survival of the fittest" is often used to mean "natural selection", it is avoided by modern biologists, because the phrase can be misleading. For example, survival is only one aspect of selection, and not always the most important.  Another problem is that the word "fit" is frequently confused with a state of physical fitness. In the evolutionary meaning "fitness" is the rate of reproductive output among a class of genetic variants.

 

Perhaps I can recommend the many works of the late Stephen Jay Gould, who wrote extensively about the role of accidental and sometimes unhelpful variations in evolution; see e.g. Ever Since Darwin (1977) and The Panda's Thumb (1980), as well as Richard Dawkins's The Selfish Gene (1976).  You may also be interested in the problem of runaway selection, discussed below, and in books like Richard Prum's The Evolution of Beauty (2017): 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisherian_runaway 

The plumage dimorphism of the peacock and peahen of the species within the genus Pavo is a prime example of the ornamentation paradox that has long puzzled evolutionary biologists; Darwin wrote in 1860:

    The sight of a feather in a peacock’s tail, whenever I gaze at it, makes me sick!^[7]

The peacock's colorful and elaborate tail requires a great deal of energy to grow and maintain. It also reduces the bird's agility, and may increase the animal's visibility to predators. The tail appears to lower the overall fitness of the individuals who possess it. Yet, it has evolved, indicating that peacocks who have longer and more colorfully elaborate tails have some advantage over peacocks who do not. Fisherian runaway posits that the evolution of the peacock tail is made possible if peahens have a preference to mate with peacocks that possess a longer and more colourful tail. 

 

-- Retiree 

[arithai12]

On 10/14/2022 at 4:02 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

....

As long as people don't follow [read "ignore"] recommended public health precautions, they increase the risks of continuing to spread COVID and with each new infection, more chances for mutation into who knows what.

The problem is that "recommended public health precautions" are clear as mud, sometimes completely wrong, especially from organizations that we should trust without questioning.

You may remember than in the early Covid days, WHO stated that it was not transmissible between humans. I also mention that the same organization, through its illustrious director general, recently declared monkey pox a global pandemic - of which we still have to see any tangible numbers.

SIngapore, now acclaimed as some sort of scientific reference point for findings about XBB, was especially appalling. When we were there Feb 2020, absolutely no one was wearing a mask and there were no guidelines at all about social distancing: we had to cut our visit short and run back to Thailand.

I should perhaps also mention the fantastic Sinovac, which was for many months the only vaccine that could be obtained in Thailand at least by the common folks.

 

Then it's no wonder that many people ignore what is recommended by those in charge.

[arithai12]

11 hours ago, Eleftheros said:

Interesting.

 

I wonder why Charles Darwin & Herbert Spencer put "the survival of the fittest" at the center of their theories of evolution.

They were studying fauna and flora in a pristine natural environment, and over periods of time measured in many millennia. Since the industrial age, the human race has made those conditions not more applicable on the planet. We raise specific animal/vegetable breeds tailored to our needs, and contaminate the environment. As for humans, the "survival of the richest" would be a more fitting description. Medicine has made it possible for individuals to survive and reproduce, who would not have stood a chance a few hundred years ago.

Homo smartphonensis will soon replace us, but it will definitely not be a by product of evolution. There are already indications that in the past decade the average national IQ of some first world countries is actually decreasing.

Edited October 16, 2022 by arithai12

[retiree]

6 hours ago, arithai12 said:

I also mention that the same organization, ... recently declared monkey pox a global pandemic - of which we still have to see any tangible numbers.

Uhh ...

   73,288 Total Cases 

   72,428 in locations that have not historically reported monkeypox (102 countries)

   860 in locations that have historically reported monkeypox (7 countries)

https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/world-map.html

https://worldhealthorg.shinyapps.io/mpx_global/

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

10 hours ago, arithai12 said:

The problem is that "recommended public health precautions" are clear as mud, sometimes completely wrong, especially from organizations that we should trust without questioning.

 

For a long time now, the recommended public health precautions from medical experts on the virus have been clear -- boosted vaccination, good quality (pref N95 type) face mask wear in indoor spaces particularly close contact ones, and social distancing as much as possible.

 

And yet, too many people are refusing to get COVID booster vaccines (including the new 2nd gen ones in the West where they're already available now), refusing to wear face masks when indoor around others, and ignoring social distancing.  And when people do that, the results at some point are going to be predictable.

 

The government/political organizations in Thailand, the U.S. and elsewhere have backed off those kinds of basic responses, largely because too many in the public simply won't go along. But if you ask the medical experts on the virus how to best stop/curtail it, their advice will remain the same as it's long been.

 

And the above are only common sense measures aimed at stopping/curtailing an airborne virus.... You don't have to be a genius or public health expert to figure that out.

 

 

Edited October 17, 2022 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[brewsterbudgen]

6 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

For a long time now, the recommended public health precautions from medical experts on the virus have been clear -- boosted vaccination, good quality face mask wear in indoor spaces particularly close contact ones, and social distancing as much as possible.

 

And yet, too many people are refusing to get COVID booster vaccines (including the new 2nd gen ones in the West where they're already available now), refusing to wear face masks when indoor around others, and ignoring social distancing.  And when people do that, the results at some point are going to be predictable.

 

The government/political organizations in Thailand, the U.S. and elsewhere have backed off those kinds of basic responses, largely because too many in the public simply won't go along. But if you ask the medical experts on the virus how to best stop/curtail it, their advice will remain the same as it's long been.

 

And the above are only common sense measures aimed at stopping/curtailing an airborne virus.... You don't have to be a genius or public health expert to figure that out.

 

 

I'm not sure the Thai government backed off the mask mandate because too many in the public won't go along with it.  I still see around 80% of Thais still wearing masks, even outdoors!

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Just now, brewsterbudgen said:

I'm not sure the Thai government backed off the mask mandate because too many in the public won't go along with it.  I still see around 80% of Thais still wearing masks, even outdoors!

 

It went from being a mandate to being a soft recommendation...largely as part of the government here dropping COVID screening measures for incoming travelers as part of their efforts to restore intl tourism. 

 

Look at what group is most resistant to wearing face masks, with farang posters here regularly complaining they'll never travel to Thailand if there's required face mask wearing.