Maybe the USD has paused tanking against the Baht?

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, spidermike007 said:

10 million a month? Really? And I am short on facts? More like 2-3 million. Maybe. And Thailand should consider itself very fortunate if it gets 2-3 million tourists a month, from here forward. And most of the tourists are regional. How many high spending tourists are coming from Laos and Cambodia? And India? 

 

The total number of visitor arrivals for the 1 January-26 October, 2022, period was 7,349,843. The top five source markets were Malaysia with 1,246,242 arrivals, India with 661,751 arrivals, Lao PDR. with 538,789 arrivals, Cambodia with 373,811 arrivals, and Singapore with 365,593 arrivals. 

 

https://www.tatnews.org/2022/10/thailand-welcomes-over-7-million-foreign-tourists-from-1-january-to-26-october-2022/

 

 

As said earlier, my mistake, I intended 10 million per year.

[nigelforbes]

14 minutes ago, Etaoin Shrdlu said:

Is the 750% possibly the total amount of all outstanding debt obligations issued in the US including Federal, state and local governments, corporate and private (including consumer) debt expressed as a percent of GDP, or some combination thereof? I really don't know.

 

I can't find any online source that cites a similar number, but if a logical case can be made for it using credible information, I'm certainly willing to listen. It may or may not be useful to compare such number with Thai or UK government debt levels, but if it helps explain why Thailand is in a better position than the US is economically, that may be interesting.

Dunno, but I'm happy to concede that the comparable debt is probably not 750% of GDP, based on what I've seen, now that I've done some digging....I will continue to dig but am going square eyed with this currently.

 

Markets always cite Thailand's relatively low debt levels, especially their extremely low overseas debt levels where the loans are denominated in other than THB. Perhaps the story is in the relative amounts, it's far easier to find 500 bill (Thai debt) than it is to find 31 trillion (US debt), especially when almost half that amount already exists in the Foreign Currency Reserves (Thailand 200 bill US) 

 

Other considerations when making comparisons between the two countries is in social security and social benefits debt, US SSc future debt levels are increasingly high, Thailand's are close to non existent. Whilst there is a crude form of unemployment benefit here, there is very little financial overhead whereas in the US it is extremely high.

 

Lastly, as far as I can tell, US debt by individual States adds about US 6 trill to the US debt pile.

[Etaoin Shrdlu]

47 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Dunno, but I'm happy to concede that the comparable debt is probably not 750% of GDP, based on what I've seen, now that I've done some digging....I will continue to dig but am going square eyed with this currently.

 

Markets always cite Thailand's relatively low debt levels, especially their extremely low overseas debt levels where the loans are denominated in other than THB. Perhaps the story is in the relative amounts, it's far easier to find 500 bill (Thai debt) than it is to find 31 trillion (US debt), especially when almost half that amount already exists in the Foreign Currency Reserves (Thailand 200 bill US) 

 

Other considerations when making comparisons between the two countries is in social security and social benefits debt, US SSc future debt levels are increasingly high, Thailand's are close to non existent. Whilst there is a crude form of unemployment benefit here, there is very little financial overhead whereas in the US it is extremely high.

 

Lastly, as far as I can tell, US debt by individual States adds about US 6 trill to the US debt pile.

I agree, but the foreign reserves belong to the Bank of Thailand, not the Thai Government. If the Thai Government wanted to use those reserves to pay down external debt, it would have to find the cash to buy them from the BoT, perhaps by issuing more local debt! 

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, Etaoin Shrdlu said:

I agree, but the foreign reserves belong to the Bank of Thailand, not the Thai Government. If the Thai Government wanted to use those reserves to pay down external debt, it would have to find the cash to buy them from the BoT, perhaps by issuing more local debt! 

Yes, agreed. But let's not forget what the subject of the thread is, it's the strength of THB and one of the factors that contributes to Baht strength is the existence of those Foreign Currency Reserves, at their existing levels. The combination of relatively low government borrowings, very low overseas borrowings in foreign currencies, the existence of the Foreign Currency Reserves and the absence of costly overheads such as social welfare programs, all contribute to that strength. 

[itsari]

On 11/19/2022 at 3:00 PM, Pawpcorn said:

My monthly Social Security payment dropped 6.33% in one month, since my SSA payment gets converted to Thai Baht, in Bangkok Bank's New York branch, and then transferred into my Direct Deposit account, in Thailand

 

For me... it tanked

Dollar was on a all time high due to interest hikes by the federal reserve . Why on earth are you surprised by a correction ? 

You are tanked in your thoughts Pawcorn

[ThailandRyan]

Fed will be raising the interest rates again by at least 50 basis points instead of the 75 it did the last few times.  Thailand economy is slowing, just hear that the exports and imports are down by a large percentage over last years amounts, tourism is not the savior supposedly, but reading other OP's it appears they have put there eggs into one basket in order to save the country and the GDP. Lets see if they get the 10 million visitors by the end of the year as they are expecting.  Definitely will be a slowdown in arrivals after the beginning of the year from all indications and by the end of the first quarter it will be slim pickings.  How, as another OP running states, they can expect to have arrivals meet the 2019 amounts in 2023 is far beyond my imagination, and when the Fed increases the interest rates again, if the dollar does not go up versus the Baht then something will definitely smell rotten.  A recent article I read by a banking executive believes the USD will drop to between 33 and 34 Thb per 1USD next year, as tourism and the economy will be back to near normal.............someone seems to be smoking the Ganja.

[nigelforbes]

I agree with 33 or 34 in 2023.

[frantick]

5 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

US debt of 750%+ of GDP

 

5 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

Currency Reserves of over USD  200 bill

So that makes those reserves worth how much exactly? 

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, frantick said:

 

So that makes those reserves worth how much exactly? 

Que?

[frantick]

I have no idea where the THB or USD is going, just hold onto your hats. The world is never returning to "normal". Countries will become ever more isolated and self dependent. I'm just happy I live, for now, in a country where food grows wild year long and I don't need a heater to survive. 

[nigelforbes]

On 11/30/2022 at 12:24 PM, Etaoin Shrdlu said:

My apologies about the edit. I did not intend to change the meaning, only clarify.

 

I was initially reacting to your earlier post when you mentioned that US debt was more than 750% of GDP after having mentioned Thai debt at 60% of GDP and then later UK debt of 100% of GDP. 

 

The 750% on the US side did not seem to jibe with what I thought I knew about US Federal debt to GDP, so I did an internet search. The sources I cited in my earlier posts refer to a US Federal debt to GDP ratio of about 125%. 

 

I am interested to know why you believe that a US Federal debt to GDP ratio would be over 750% when other sources seem to use figures closer to those in the links I posted and which I made in my earlier statement, and whether the methodology in arriving at the 750% is the same as that used in arriving at 60% for Thailand and 100% for the UK which would allow for direct comparison.

 

 

I found it! That 750% was in fact almost 800% and represents total US debt.

 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/total-debt--of-gdp

 

BTW I'm still working on a like for like comparison.

[Pawpcorn]

21 hours ago, itsari said:

Dollar was on a all time high due to interest hikes by the federal reserve . Why on earth are you surprised by a correction ? 

You are tanked in your thoughts Pawcorn

Yes, you are correct... the exchange rates go up... and go down:

 

I was committing wishful hopeful naive thinking, that USD to THB exchange rates would stay so favorable.

 

Plus it seems using the term "tanked" was both inaccurate AND "triggering".

My bad.

[Berkshire]

I too have been surprised by the recent weakness of the USD, relative to the THB.  At the beginning of Nov, the USD was around 38.  The US Fed jacked up interest rates again on 2 Nov and I thought we'd be off to the races.  But the USD tanked and has been going down ever since.  It does appear that other currencies are going down against the THB as well.  Not sure what to make of it, but hope that the USD will rebound soon.   

[Etaoin Shrdlu]

1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

I found it! That 750% was in fact almost 800% and represents total US debt.

 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/total-debt--of-gdp

 

BTW I'm still working on a like for like comparison.

I suspected it must have been something like this. 

[Etaoin Shrdlu]

25 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

I too have been surprised by the recent weakness of the USD, relative to the THB.  At the beginning of Nov, the USD was around 38.  The US Fed jacked up interest rates again on 2 Nov and I thought we'd be off to the races.  But the USD tanked and has been going down ever since.  It does appear that other currencies are going down against the THB as well.  Not sure what to make of it, but hope that the USD will rebound soon.   

I think that the recovering Thai economy will give the Bank of Thailand cover to increase interest rates while the expectation  is that further US interest rate increases will be smaller than the recent 75 basis point increase. I think future rate changes get built into exchange rates in advance unless there are surprises.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Etaoin Shrdlu

[In Full Agreement]

On 11/19/2022 at 3:00 PM, Pawpcorn said:

My monthly Social Security payment dropped 6.33% in one month, since my SSA payment gets converted to Thai Baht, in Bangkok Bank's New York branch, and then transferred into my Direct Deposit account, in Thailand

 

For me... it tanked

 

 

 

Again, there's some confusion in your post.     The day you made the post  (11/19/2022) the exchange rate   of the  USD to  Thai Baht was 35.59.       If you look at the past few years of the exchange rate, you'll find that that  rate is very favorable toward your USD.

 

What is likely happening is you'er seeing a reflection of  fees charged by the bank as well as possible increases in your SSA payments for things like prescription medicine and  other such things.      I feel your pain.   A couple of years ago, after the yearly increase, i ended up with less money than before the increase.      And I'm not talking about having the money converted to Thai Baht.    It was just less  USD.