War erupts over Pheu Thai’s ฿600 minimum wage plan with the economy as the key election issue

[PingRoundTheWorld]

On 12/11/2022 at 5:59 PM, ericthai said:

It's taxes, the taxes are much higher in Thailand. 

Also true- taxes on imported alcohol are around 400% in Thailand. Huge cost difference for imports.

 

On 12/12/2022 at 1:28 AM, MrMojoRisin said:

How are the Vietnamese and Cambodians going to take Thai rice farming jobs?

Either Thai rice farms will simply close, or they will have to increase their prices to a point it will no longer be competitive vs Vietnamese/Cambodian rice which will cost much less. Of course the government can "fix" this with tariffs on imported rice, but that effectively means inflation/higher cost of living AND rice exports will suffer anyway because other countries will choose cheaper alternatives.

[2009]

On 12/11/2022 at 10:59 PM, ericthai said:

It's taxes, the taxes are much higher in Thailand. 

Not income taxes.

 

And there's no import tax on local swill, so I dunno what you are talking about.

[MrMojoRisin]

1 hour ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Also true- taxes on imported alcohol are around 400% in Thailand. Huge cost difference for imports.

 

Either Thai rice farms will simply close, or they will have to increase their prices to a point it will no longer be competitive vs Vietnamese/Cambodian rice which will cost much less. Of course the government can "fix" this with tariffs on imported rice, but that effectively means inflation/higher cost of living AND rice exports will suffer anyway because other countries will choose cheaper alternatives.

Nonsense.

 

Raising the minimum wage will provide the impetus to consolidate and mechanise agriculture in Thailand; the results of which will be increased production efficiency and improved global competitiveness.

 

The Vietnamese and Cambodians won’t be taking any Thai rice farming jobs - machines and scale efficiency will render these jobs redundant.

[billd766]

3 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

OK - and how much do hard drinks/cocktails and bottles cost? that's what matters for nightlife establishments. If you're comparing a Thai beer bar to a UK bar/restaurant, how much extra does the UK bar make on food that the Thai beer bar isn't? (not to mention many of the beer bar workers rely on lady drinks and other "alternative" sources of revenue which evens things out too)

 

Yes, but now her choice would be ONLY slinglin' hoi, because there won't be any available factory/farming jobs, because there'll be fewer factory/farm jobs overall. Since you don't seem to get it, here's a list of why there will be fewer jobs open:

1. Many businesses will simply close - if a business now spends 30k a day employing 100 employees and makes 50k a day in revenue, doubling it's labor cost to 60k means the business will shut down, period.

2. More employers will choose to hire under the table and/or hire illegal workers below minimum wage.

3. Some employers will invest in automation, robotics, machinery, and other means that reduce employee count. If it costs 30k a day to employ 100 people and 50k a day to finance a machine that'll do the same job - if you increase labor cost to 60k a day they'll choose the machine.

 

It's really economics 101 - supply and demand and equilibrium - when you mess with the labor market on the scale of doubling the lower end of salaries the direct and immediate result will always be massive job shortage and unemployment. We're not talking a moderate 10-20% increase here (which is warranted and should be fine) - we are talking a 100% increase from today to tomorrow which is guaranteed to whack some businesses and jobs out of existence. That really is the stupid thing with all social justice warriers who demand minimum wage increases - instead of going for a moderate approach like 10% per year increase for X years, they want the whole cake upfront 50-100% immediate increase - that's not something the market is prepared for or able to deal with. Hello unemployment.

But it is not planned to happen overnight, but over a 5 year period as the economy improves, something that is not happening under the current government.

[jacko45k]

10 hours ago, MrMojoRisin said:

The Vietnamese and Cambodians won’t be taking any Thai rice farming jobs - machines and scale efficiency will render these jobs redundant.

Surely then, raising the minimum wage is also making Thai workers redundant!

[MrMojoRisin]

46 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Surely then, raising the minimum wage is also making Thai workers redundant!

It will make certain jobs in certain industries disappear, no doubt, but it will also create new opportunities in other industries.
 

30% of the Thai workforce is in agriculture; this is unsustainable.

 

China’s massive economic growth over the past 30 years has been fuelled by rural to urban migration.

[fondue zoo]

On 12/10/2022 at 2:08 PM, MrMojoRisin said:

BTW - the reason for the coup was because PT would have won an election.

from the Time article in 2018  ????

This is what I want you to understand about how I took this position. Personally, I never wanted to obtain power this way, never imagine becoming the prime minister like this. [The nation] was at the brink of destruction, and I could never let that happen.

[unheard]

2 hours ago, MrMojoRisin said:

30% of the Thai workforce is in agriculture; this is unsustainable.

 

China’s massive economic growth over the past 30 years has been fuelled by rural to urban migration.

30% agriculture is not sustainable?

The last time I've checked there's a huge shortage of cheaper foods in the world.

The situation that is been forecasted to get only worse in the coming years.

China's massive economic growth has been propelled by the foreign investment.

Migration patterns were the result of the incoming investment that in turn has fueled the industrial growth, not the other way around.

Edited December 15, 2022 by unheard

[MrMojoRisin]

12 minutes ago, fondue zoo said:

from the Time article in 2018  ????

This is what I want you to understand about how I took this position. Personally, I never wanted to obtain power this way, never imagine becoming the prime minister like this. [The nation] was at the brink of destruction, and I could never let that happen.

Yingluck dissolved parliament and called an election - the correct course of action, returning power to the people, letting them decide who is best to lead the country going forward. 

We all know who would have won the election, therefore, we all know why the election was not allowed to occur.

 

No coup was necessary.
 

As for Prayuth, for someone who never wanted the position, he sure seems incredibly reluctant to leave.

[MrMojoRisin]

10 minutes ago, unheard said:

30% agriculture is not sustainable?

The last time I've checked there's a huge shortage of cheaper foods in the world.

The situation that is been forecasted to get only worse in the coming years.

China's massive economic growth has been propelled by the foreign investment.

Migration patterns were the result of the incoming investment that in turn has fueled the industrial growth, not the other way around.

30% of the workforce in agriculture is unsustainable in the modern global economy.

 

Labourers on rice farms in Thailand exist barely above subsistence levels, hardly a plausible foundation to launch Thailand into a first world economy status.

 

How many people does it take to do the work of a single tractor?

[unheard]

46 minutes ago, MrMojoRisin said:

Labourers on rice farms in Thailand exist barely above subsistence levels, hardly a plausible foundation to launch Thailand into a first world economy status.

I'm not sure if you're aware of the sustained labor shortage experienced by the Thai "industries".

Farmers are not forced to stay in their villages.

Most of the older generation own their parcel and prefer not to move.

Unlike the younger ones.

You can hardly find any young, capable or rudimentary ambitious person still working in the fields.

The vast majority have already moved out of countryside into the industrial areas.

Edited December 15, 2022 by unheard

[billd766]

53 minutes ago, MrMojoRisin said:

30% of the workforce in agriculture is unsustainable in the modern global economy.

 

Labourers on rice farms in Thailand exist barely above subsistence levels, hardly a plausible foundation to launch Thailand into a first world economy status.

 

How many people does it take to do the work of a single tractor?

I can remember not 20 years ago how rice was harvested by gangs of older poorer people working from rice farm to rice farm.

 

Nowadays rice farmers telephone the guy with the rice harvester to book an appointment to harvest their rice paddies. On the appointed time and day a truck turns up with a rice muncher on the back, off loads it and away they go using only 2 or 3 people including the farmer and the driver.

 

The other older people don't do it any more and the younger people don't WANT to do it.

[MrMojoRisin]

1 hour ago, unheard said:

I'm not sure if you're aware of the sustained labor shortage experienced by the Thai "industries".

Farmers are not forced to stay in their villages.

Most of the older generation own their parcel and prefer not to move.

Unlike the younger ones.

You can hardly find any young, capable or rudimentary ambitious person still working in the fields.

The vast majority have already moved out of countryside into the industrial areas.

Thaksin wins election after election because of the massive population in the north of Thailand.

Bangkok is as developed as any major first world city.

The rest of Thailand is as underdeveloped as its neighbours Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar.

Hmm?

 

In 2010 52% of Thais lived in the North / North East yet government expenditure was only 13%. 

 

Edited December 15, 2022 by MrMojoRisin

[owl sees all]

2 hours ago, billd766 said:

I can remember not 20 years ago how rice was harvested by gangs of older poorer people working from rice farm to rice farm.

 

Nowadays rice farmers telephone the guy with the rice harvester to book an appointment to harvest their rice paddies. On the appointed time and day a truck turns up with a rice muncher on the back, off loads it and away they go using only 2 or 3 people including the farmer and the driver.

 

The other older people don't do it any more and the younger people don't WANT to do it.

Can't say that this is what I see. I'm in a very rural area, and the amount of rice that was harvested this year by machine is possibly 5% at most.

 

Much of the yearly wage, for many people, comes from their neighbours, and those neighbours themselves rely of their neighbour's employment. It's a merry-go-round.

 

The daily rate has more than doubled in the last 10 years; having gradually crept up from 150 baht a day to 350 baht a day (present rate). If the daily rate goes up to 600 baht, then the money has to come from somewhere. And that 'somewhere' is the unit cost of what is being harvested; be it rice, sugar, cassava etc. Then the money comes back when the commodity is sold.

 

Generally, the rice is sold, all bar that which is required for the family table for the rest of the year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[billd766]

32 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

Can't say that this is what I see. I'm in a very rural area, and the amount of rice that was harvested this year by machine is possibly 5% at most.

 

Much of the yearly wage, for many people, comes from their neighbours, and those neighbours themselves rely of their neighbour's employment. It's a merry-go-round.

 

The daily rate has more than doubled in the last 10 years; having gradually crept up from 150 baht a day to 350 baht a day (present rate). If the daily rate goes up to 600 baht, then the money has to come from somewhere. And that 'somewhere' is the unit cost of what is being harvested; be it rice, sugar, cassava etc. Then the money comes back when the commodity is sold.

 

Generally, the rice is sold, all bar that which is required for the family table for the rest of the year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where do you live roughly.

 

[owl sees all]

46 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Where do you live roughly.

 

About 60 kms north east of Udon Thani.

 

Very rural and dry a a bone.

[billd766]

1 minute ago, owl sees all said:

About 60 kms north east of Udon Thani.

 

Very rural and dry a a bone.

We live at the Klong Lan end of the Mae Wong national park on the slope leading up to it. My wife's land is rain fed from the park and though we do have access to mains water, to irrigate it would be a bit expensive.

 

We bought the land as she had the desire to be a farmer, but gave up on the idea in her second year after seeing all the hard work involved with man saparang and the financial returns. She now rents the land to a local farmer and has a small income without all the hard work.