Thai economy set to return to pre-pandemic levels by year end, but World Bank remains cautious going into 2023

[webfact]

 

By Erich Parpart

Thailand’s Covid-19 battered economy is set to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year although the outlook for the year ahead is clouded due to the possibility of a severe global recession that could have a knock on effect on the Thai economy.

 

The World Bank came out to say that the Thai economy is projected to recover to its pre-pandemic level in 2022 but the pace of growth will be slower than expected in 2023 due to global headwinds.

 

The World Bank said Thailand’s economy has shown resilience to recent global shocks with output surpassing its pre-pandemic level in Q3 of 2022 which was faster than expected but still slower than peers.

 

Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/46769/thai-economy-set-to-return-to-pre-pandemic-levels-by-year-end-but-world-bank-remains-cautious-going-into-2023/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2022-12-14

 

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[pegman]

Thailand was growing slower than most of its neighbours before the COVID and with this gov's policies that won't change.

[Deli]

Oh dear, with hotels still closed or low on occupancy at rates of a fraction from pre - covid. Tourism contributed not far from 20 % to the GDP, in 2018 / 2019.

Must be a fairy tale.

[JimHuaHin]

5 5 5

[ezzra]

Don't think so, there are still deserted shops, buildings and business that are still to come back, at least some of them and that will not happen not this year and not the next..

[nigelforbes]

41 minutes ago, Deli said:

Oh dear, with hotels still closed or low on occupancy at rates of a fraction from pre - covid. Tourism contributed not far from 20 % to the GDP, in 2018 / 2019.

Must be a fairy tale.

Tourism has two parts, international and domestic. International was/is worth 11% of the 2018/2019 GDP, domestic was/is worth about 8%. International just celebrated its 10 millionth arrival, a quarter of the 2018/2019 total. GDP in 2018 was worth USD 506 bill, it is forecast to be the same in 2022 (2019 was an anomaly). I'd say that's no fairy tale.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals

[VinnieK]

Still a long way to go to normalcy.

[peter zwart]

BlackRock’s top minds seem worried. Investment strategists at the world’s largest asset manager warned of a coming recession, stubborn inflation, and a new era that won’t be so kind to investors in their 2023 Global Outlook released this week. So enjoy the numbers over this year.

[ikke1959]

The whole world is suffering of slowing down economy, but Thailand is almost back to normal.. Happily the Worldbank has some common sense.... 

[pegman]

12 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

Tourism has two parts, international and domestic. International was/is worth 11% of the 2018/2019 GDP, domestic was/is worth about 8%. International just celebrated its 10 millionth arrival, a quarter of the 2018/2019 total. GDP in 2018 was worth USD 506 bill, it is forecast to be the same in 2022 (2019 was an anomaly). I'd say that's no fairy tale.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals

There was a huge spike that boosted GDP from the Transport sector in 2019. I assume that was from Chinese tourists which then cratered  with the COVID. Another spike was in Ag which I don't know what to attribute to.

Edited December 14, 2022 by pegman

[nigelforbes]

1 hour ago, pegman said:

There was a huge spike that boosted GDP from the Transport sector in 2019. I assume that was from Chinese tourists which then cratered  with the COVID. Another spike was in Ag which I don't know what to attribute to.

Yes, that's why I said earlier that 2019 was an anomaly because odd things happened then that year that aren't easily explained, they actually started in 2018. Tourism from China was one element, the government also got involved in gold purchases/resale from the jewelry industry which produced a large jump in exports (but of course, tourism is an export so perhaps that's it).

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/EconomicConditions/AnnualReport/AnnualReport/AnnualReport_2018.pdf

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/EconomicConditions/AnnualReport/AnnualReport/AnnualReport_2019.pdf

[hotchilli]

17 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand’s Covid-19 battered economy is set to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year

I find that very hard to believe.

[pegman]

1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

Yes, that's why I said earlier that 2019 was an anomaly because odd things happened then that year that aren't easily explained, they actually started in 2018. Tourism from China was one element, the government also got involved in gold purchases/resale from the jewelry industry which produced a large jump in exports (but of course, tourism is an export so perhaps that's it).

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/EconomicConditions/AnnualReport/AnnualReport/AnnualReport_2018.pdf

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/EconomicConditions/AnnualReport/AnnualReport/AnnualReport_2019.pdf

This should add to the confusion. 

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-economy-gdp-idUSKBN20B07I

[nigelforbes]

7 minutes ago, pegman said:

This should add to the confusion. 

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-economy-gdp-idUSKBN20B07I

The only confusion is the article is dated February 2020!