US intel assessing possibility that Chinese spy balloon’s path over US was accidental

[Scott]

 

US intelligence officials are assessing the possibility that the suspected Chinese spy balloon was not deliberately maneuvered into the continental US by the Chinese government and are examining whether it was diverted off course by strong winds, multiple people briefed on the intelligence tell CNN.

After the balloon lifted off from Hainan, China last month, US officials monitored it as it made its way across the Pacific, sources said. After tracking the balloon for a little while, officials believed it would head towards Guam, where it would probably try to surveil military sites on the island.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/15/politics/us-intel-china-balloon/index.html

[thaibeachlovers]

Have they been able to ascertain what the payload was yet? Be soooo embarrassing if it was in fact a weather research device and did stray over the US by accident.

[sungod]

The US (and Europe come to that)  is awash with cheap Chinese CCTV cameras, security systems, phones etc. linked to the internet. The Chinese can do all the spying they want!

[roquefort]

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Have they been able to ascertain what the payload was yet? Be soooo embarrassing if it was in fact a weather research device and did stray over the US by accident.

They'll never tell us (just like Nordstream).

[radiochaser]

Or the balloon was launched and china used the jet stream to its advantage to help float it into the United States.

I believe that is a more plausible theory.   There is no way that the U.S. military did not know the path of the balloon almost from the point of launch to the time it was shot down.   

My time with a branch of the military involved with spying on other countries is decades old, but even back then, the U.S. military was tracking flying objects before they left the borders of other countries.    The amount of advancement of intel gathering abilities since then, most likely allowed the tracking of the balloon by the time it was high enough to pose a problem with air craft traffic.  

[nauseus]

51 minutes ago, radiochaser said:

Or the balloon was launched and china used the jet stream to its advantage to help float it into the United States.

I believe that is a more plausible theory.   There is no way that the U.S. military did not know the path of the balloon almost from the point of launch to the time it was shot down.   

My time with a branch of the military involved with spying on other countries is decades old, but even back then, the U.S. military was tracking flying objects before they left the borders of other countries.    The amount of advancement of intel gathering abilities since then, most likely allowed the tracking of the balloon by the time it was high enough to pose a problem with air craft traffic.  

From the previous reports, if the thing was launched in China, then that must be what happened. From January to March, whenever there is a La Niña system dominating in the Pacific, then the polar jet stream is almost identical to the balloon track. The likelihood of the balloon passing along this track would be well known and. therefore, quite predictable.

 

Map from NOAA:  https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/lanina-faq

 

 

 

[Purdey]

Not one global media outlet was ever able to explain how a balloon with no propeller or jet engines was able to guide itself over sensitive targets. The wind at 50,000 feet exceeds 57 MPH and at times reaches 247 MPH. 

How they were said to "Hover" over sensitive targets shows how the media is able to excite the public with silly news. 

[Tug]

12 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Have they been able to ascertain what the payload was yet? Be soooo embarrassing if it was in fact a weather research device and did stray over the US by accident.

It  have it did have an intelligence gathering capability also if it was a weather balloon why wouldn’t the Chinese government notify the Canadian and US government about it hummm?that would certainly be the prudent thing to do 

[JustThisOnePostOnly]

Clown show.

[ozimoron]

If it was just an out of control weather balloon why would the Chinese care if the US shot it down? It was already lost to them regardless. 

[thaibeachlovers]

10 hours ago, Purdey said:

Not one global media outlet was ever able to explain how a balloon with no propeller or jet engines was able to guide itself over sensitive targets. The wind at 50,000 feet exceeds 57 MPH and at times reaches 247 MPH. 

How they were said to "Hover" over sensitive targets shows how the media is able to excite the public with silly news. 

Thinking about it, one might assume it was one of those diversions used by politicians to deflect attention away from something they didn't want reported on. Wonder what it was in this case?

[bamnutsak]

In related news...

 

 

Hobby Club’s Missing Balloon Feared Shot Down By USAF

 

A small, globe-trotting balloon declared “missing in action” by an Illinois-based hobbyist club on Feb. 15 has emerged as a candidate to explain one of the three mystery objects shot down by four heat-seeking missiles launched by U.S. Air Force fighters since Feb. 10.

 

The club—the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade (NIBBB)—is not pointing fingers yet.

 

There are suspicions among other prominent members of the small, pico-ballooning enthusiasts’ community, which combines ham radio and high-altitude ballooning into a single, relatively affordable hobby.

 

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/aircraft-propulsion/hobby-clubs-missing-balloon-feared-shot-down-usaf