The unnoticed cat, lurking to pounce. Ignored by the Wall Street Gurus.

[swissie]

These days, the "Market Gurus" cant't make up their minds. Torn between market statistics that can indicate a future economic "recession" or a general "nevermind". We will "sit out whatever comes", recommending mostly a very conservative approach to "the markets". Fine.

- But future "Bull-Markets" sneak up like a cat on silent paws. Not noticed by the Wall Sreet Guru community, until the cat has leaped foreward (upward) by 50%). Then they recommend it with "a strong buy".

Currently we have a cat, getting ready to "leap". Having formed a very solid technical and fundamental base from witch to "leap". Having build up the foundation to laep  for months.

Most producers of this material agree that they will not be able to satisfy the demand  for this material. At the latest by September this year. Regardless if the Chinese Economy recovers or not. (A major consumer). The Wall-Street Gurus have not gotten wind of it yet. But the producers of this material have.

Does the cat, aproaching on silent paws has a name? Yes, it's name is COPPER.

 

[jaywalker2]

What are you talking about?

[Will B Good]

6 minutes ago, jaywalker2 said:

What are you talking about?

Long story short......copper prices are expected to rocket?

[brianthainess]

My cat is not ready to pounce, fast asleep as usual. 

[jaywalker2]

30 minutes ago, Will B Good said:

Long story short......copper prices are expected to rocket?

So he wants us to load up on copper, is that it?

[ozimoron]

A recession is coming. We won't see it until the bond yield inversion goes away. Don't touch copper.

 

discalimer: I ain't rich.

[swissie]

On 4/15/2023 at 3:56 AM, jaywalker2 said:

So he wants us to load up on copper, is that it?

Yes.

[ozimoron]

8 minutes ago, swissie said:

Yes.

Good luck with that.

[dingdongrb]

Lithium slag .....

[swissie]

24 minutes ago, dingdongrb said:

Lithium slag .....

Current and projected Supply and Demand can not be compared between the 2 commodities. An entirely different situation.

 

[bignok]

Experts tipped copper 6 months ago.

[swissie]

35 minutes ago, bignok said:

Experts tipped copper 6 months ago.

Forgetting to "tip" their retail customers.  The usual. After a massive price increase, they will recommend it to their retail-custoers as a "strong buy". (The unloading process from "strong hands" to "weak hands"). Usually the end of every Bull-Market. 

[bignok]

5 minutes ago, swissie said:

Forgetting to "tip" their retail customers.  The usual. After a massive price increase, they will recommend it to their retail-custoers as a "strong buy". (The unloading process from "strong hands" to "weak hands"). Usually the end of every Bull-Market. 

Time to sell then. 

[ozimoron]

1 hour ago, bignok said:

Experts tipped copper 6 months ago.

Not all of them, one I follow doesn't think copper is a great investment right now.

[bignok]

Just now, ozimoron said:

Not all of them, one I follow doesn't think copper is a great investment right now.

Same every year. They are trying to drum up business. Best ignored.

[gargamon]

Move along. Nothing to see here. Merely another “pump and dump“ scheme. The OP clearly has some skin in the game. 

[ozimoron]

Just now, bignok said:

Same every year. They are trying to drum up business. Best ignored.

Copper has not been a good investment over the past year so I think he's better if listened to quite frankly.

[wordchild]

Interesting post by the OP. 

Dr Copper (given its relative strength in recent months)  is saying that the world's economies will get through this period just fine.

 

Excepting , maybe, a few way overvalued US tech stocks.

 

The copper price is something i check daily, along with Iron Ore, Brent, US Govt 10yr yield  plus the major USD Currency pairs. Taken together these give a  reasonable snapshot of the health of the Global Economy, IMO.

 

I am not sure we will see a copper "super cycle" from here  but , given the importance of this metal, in so many areas, it seems likely that the price will remain well supported.

 

[billd766]

20 hours ago, bignok said:

Experts tipped copper 6 months ago.

Then why are the "experts" all not rich and retired on their profits?

[bignok]

8 hours ago, billd766 said:

Then why are the "experts" all not rich and retired on their profits?

Because they aren't experts.

[ozimoron]

Copper is dropping heavily expect more.

[swissie]

5 hours ago, ozimoron said:

Copper is dropping heavily expect more.

Now that "the Markets" have reached the conclusion that the long awaited recession is finally coming, "everything" is (will be) down, not only Copper. As the long-term fundamentals for Copper remain intact, I will add to my position on severe setbacks. Currently, I am only engaged with 30% of my planned position in Copper.

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, swissie said:

Now that "the Markets" have reached the conclusion that the long awaited recession is finally coming, "everything" is (will be) down, not only Copper. As the long-term fundamentals for Copper remain intact, I will add to my position on severe setbacks. Currently, I am only engaged with 30% of my planned position in Copper.

Of course copper will always be used in industry. I just think it's a poor investment for the near to mid term future, like until a coming recession bottoms out. I might well be wrong, it's just my reading of the economy and markets.

[ozimoron]

Bloomberg are reporting that copper is on the brink of its worst month since last June. If you believe in the recession narrative copper won't recover until the bottom.

[swissie]

On 4/28/2023 at 3:13 PM, ozimoron said:

Bloomberg are reporting that copper is on the brink of its worst month since last June. If you believe in the recession narrative copper won't recover until the bottom.

The jury is still out of how severe the recession will be. While Copper inventories on the LME are still dwindling, they are increasing in Shanghai. This is the stuff "Choppy-Markets" arer made of. I expect a "roller coaster" ride for the rest of the year.

But: The "carrying-charge" for long Copper is only an annualised 2.2%. Very reasonable. Making a longer term view on things very "justifiable". Especially as long as the "electrification" of the world is an ongoing process and it takes between 10 to 12 years to bring future copper mines "on line". Currently, the price of Copper is too low to justify the fast developpent of new Copper mines.

- I wish, I was 20 years younger.

 

[ozimoron]

On 4/30/2023 at 9:29 PM, swissie said:

The jury is still out of how severe the recession will be. While Copper inventories on the LME are still dwindling, they are increasing in Shanghai. This is the stuff "Choppy-Markets" arer made of. I expect a "roller coaster" ride for the rest of the year.

But: The "carrying-charge" for long Copper is only an annualised 2.2%. Very reasonable. Making a longer term view on things very "justifiable". Especially as long as the "electrification" of the world is an ongoing process and it takes between 10 to 12 years to bring future copper mines "on line". Currently, the price of Copper is too low to justify the fast developpent of new Copper mines.

- I wish, I was 20 years younger.

 

Copper has now dropped to a point where it's probably a decent investment.

[swissie]

6 hours ago, ozimoron said:

Copper has now dropped to a point where it's probably a decent investment.

At the crossroads? The strong fundamentals are starting to sink in. Copper is doing better than other industrial metals. Technically, all indicators put copper in a "overbought" situation. A setback "should" occur.

If this setback doesn't happen and copper forges ahead, this could well mean that the market proclaims: "Damm the torpedos, copper is beautyful". Thus kicking off the next leg of a bull market. The next few trading days will give a clue.

PS: Long term investing in commodities requires the observation of "carrying charges". The CC for copper has risen from 2% to 4% anuallised. As a consolation, the CC for US Natural Gas is 85%. Both reflecting "long" positions, well understood.

[ozimoron]

35 minutes ago, swissie said:

At the crossroads? The strong fundamentals are starting to sink in. Copper is doing better than other industrial metals. Technically, all indicators put copper in a "overbought" situation. A setback "should" occur.

If this setback doesn't happen and copper forges ahead, this could well mean that the market proclaims: "Damm the torpedos, copper is beautyful". Thus kicking off the next leg of a bull market. The next few trading days will give a clue.

PS: Long term investing in commodities requires the observation of "carrying charges". The CC for copper has risen from 2% to 4% anuallised. As a consolation, the CC for US Natural Gas is 85%. Both reflecting "long" positions, well understood.

Copper has just shown a turn in a short downtrend and has retested and broken through a heavily traded level. I expect a small pull back to 3.53 to retest that level and if it rejects it's a buy. It could take a week to 3 weeks because gold is dropping like a rock and I wouldn't trust a long just yet. Just my opinion.