Pheu Thai Landslide Win Depends On 7 ‘Strategic’ Provinces: Academic

[zzaa09]

11 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

Campaigning off the back of a Tuk Tuk!

Does that make him a man of the people?

Nah. 

But buying pricey votes certainly does. 

[Eric Loh]

On 4/30/2023 at 5:54 AM, sidneybear said:

Thaksin's lot will be kicked out again. It's a cyclical thing.

Yes they can be kicked out by its citizens in the next election. 

[Eric Loh]

On 4/30/2023 at 5:54 AM, sidneybear said:

Thaksin's lot will be kicked out again. It's a cyclical thing.

Yes they can be kicked out by its citizens in the next election. Repeating coups must be stopped and coup instigators put on trial. 

[sidneybear]

1 minute ago, Eric Loh said:

Yes they can be kicked out by its citizens in the next election. Repeating coups must be stopped and coup instigators put on trial. 

Won't happen. 

[h90]

On 4/29/2023 at 12:41 PM, ourmanflint said:

It's a choice between Move Forward Party & the Move Backward Party of Thaksin

Move Marxist or Move Thaksin...or the Do Nothing ruling party...

[h90]

On 4/29/2023 at 3:04 PM, Red Forever said:

Many Thais would love to move "Backward" to a party of Thaksin compared to what they've suffered over the past 9 years.

What did they suffer? Beside Covid I didn't notice any positive or negative changes

[h90]

On 4/30/2023 at 8:13 PM, dinsdale said:

I hope for change in Thailand but change in Thailand will only occur through violence. It's sad but the elite and the generals will not have their power and greed diminished. Let's see what happens. My bet is still on Prayut becoming PM, a people's uprising and a coup. I hope not but absolutely no one has or will rule this out. TIT? Maybe TWT? Third World Thailand. The 'democratic' country that has coups and is corrupt top to bottom.

Why do you want to change? What is currently so bad in Thailand? What greed? Thailand has lower taxes than most other countries, better infrastructure and it is extreme easy and cheap to open a company. With all the coups and the political discussions, Thailand is doing well in life quality, far better than their neighbors, Lao, Myanmar, Cambodia. So why the need to drastic changes?

[Eric Loh]

8 minutes ago, sidneybear said:

Won't happen. 

I am putting my faith in the change in military command and the demographic change to prevent future coups. Ultimately what must happen is for the people choice to kick out the government. 

[zzaa09]

19 minutes ago, h90 said:

Move Marxist or Move Thaksin...or the Do Nothing ruling party...

Marxist? Here?

Nah....nothing even close.

[h90]

28 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

Marxist? Here?

Nah....nothing even close.

His family is extreme left leaning....socialistic, what they call liberal or progressive

[ourmanflint]

3 hours ago, h90 said:

His family is extreme left leaning....socialistic, what they call liberal or progressive

Left leaning or socialist is definitely not Marxist

[MrMojoRisin]

4 hours ago, h90 said:

Why do you want to change? What is currently so bad in Thailand? What greed? Thailand has lower taxes than most other countries, better infrastructure and it is extreme easy and cheap to open a company. With all the coups and the political discussions, Thailand is doing well in life quality, far better than their neighbors, Lao, Myanmar, Cambodia. So why the need to drastic changes?

If Thailand is doing so we’ll under the current management then there should be no fear of elections.

 

Why do you think Pheu Thai are such overwhelming favourites to win in a landslide?

[MrMojoRisin]

4 hours ago, h90 said:

What did they suffer? Beside Covid I didn't notice any positive or negative changes

That‘s great for you.

What about the 70 million Thais.

Do they get a say?

[h90]

1 hour ago, MrMojoRisin said:

That‘s great for you.

What about the 70 million Thais.

Do they get a say?

What did they suffer? Beside lack of tourists which is not really that governments. They handled Covid badly but so did most countries. What else?

[h90]

1 hour ago, MrMojoRisin said:

If Thailand is doing so we’ll under the current management then there should be no fear of elections.

 

Why do you think Pheu Thai are such overwhelming favourites to win in a landslide?

Because people wish a progress while the previous government didn't do much at all.....But I can't see that they did something evil. They just didn't do much

[h90]

1 hour ago, ourmanflint said:

Left leaning or socialist is definitely not Marxist

OK agreed

[MrMojoRisin]

16 minutes ago, h90 said:

What did they suffer? Beside lack of tourists which is not really that governments. They handled Covid badly but so did most countries. What else?

I would think that no two Thais would have had the exact same experience under 9 years of junta rule. Those that prospered will no doubt want to keep things unchanged, those that suffered would no doubt want change. What better way to understand the true state of affairs than holding a free and fair election?

 

The fact that the current expectation is that the vote for change is going to utterly obliterate the vote for no change, to me, quite clearly indicates a great many more Thais have suffered rather than prospered with Prayuth as PM.

[MrMojoRisin]

20 minutes ago, h90 said:

Because people wish a progress while the previous government didn't do much at all.....But I can't see that they did something evil. They just didn't do much

I don’t know, how about:

Coup

Attitude adjustment camps

Arbitrary incarcerations

Section 44 

Increased human rights abuses

Book banning

Banning groups greater than 5

Weaponisation of the legal system

Computer crimes act

Increased ISOC surveillance and intimidation

Dissolution of Future Forward

Drop in world corruption ranking

Increase in poverty rates

Etc. Etc.

 

 

 

[h90]

42 minutes ago, MrMojoRisin said:

I would think that no two Thais would have had the exact same experience under 9 years of junta rule. Those that prospered will no doubt want to keep things unchanged, those that suffered would no doubt want change. What better way to understand the true state of affairs than holding a free and fair election?

 

The fact that the current expectation is that the vote for change is going to utterly obliterate the vote for no change, to me, quite clearly indicates a great many more Thais have suffered rather than prospered with Prayuth as PM.

It means they want a change...it does not mean that they suffered. Lets wait and see if the people really vote in the way the polls say. I don't need Thaksin part 3. But it is for the Thais to decide

[h90]

35 minutes ago, MrMojoRisin said:

I don’t know, how about:

Coup

Attitude adjustment camps

Arbitrary incarcerations

Section 44 

Increased human rights abuses

Book banning

Banning groups greater than 5

Weaponisation of the legal system

Computer crimes act

Increased ISOC surveillance and intimidation

Dissolution of Future Forward

Drop in world corruption ranking

Increase in poverty rates

Etc. Etc.

 

 

 

Coups hurt who, a few oligarchs only

I can't see here any point that would hurt a regular Thai. How does it hurt a hard working Thai labor if some oligarch party got banned?
Thailand was always famous for book banning. Internet censorship was worst under Thaksin and he was proud of it.....He was proud of hiring 10.000 people to find and ban webpages. I can't see any increase in corruption. Poverty yes because of Covid, but I doubt that any party would have handled it much different.
People want to earn more money, want to have a car, house, aircondition and a future for their children. That did not improve, but also didn't go worse because of rice scam, self inflicted floods, massive government corruption, etc.. That government just ignored the normal people (beside Kratom, Marijuana liberalization which surprised me)

[zzaa09]

3 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

Left leaning or socialist is definitely not Marxist

Yeah. 

One could even go out on a limb to suggest that most [if not all] political ideologies and practices are truly based on conservativism or entrenched within the establishment circles. 

 

 

[MrMojoRisin]

40 minutes ago, h90 said:

Coups hurt who, a few oligarchs only

I can't see here any point that would hurt a regular Thai. How does it hurt a hard working Thai labor if some oligarch party got banned?
Thailand was always famous for book banning. Internet censorship was worst under Thaksin and he was proud of it.....He was proud of hiring 10.000 people to find and ban webpages. I can't see any increase in corruption. Poverty yes because of Covid, but I doubt that any party would have handled it much different.
People want to earn more money, want to have a car, house, aircondition and a future for their children. That did not improve, but also didn't go worse because of rice scam, self inflicted floods, massive government corruption, etc.. That government just ignored the normal people (beside Kratom, Marijuana liberalization which surprised me)

The election result will show who the coup hurt. 
 

If, as expected, Pheu Thai win in a landslide, what do you think is the reasoning? Do you think people who are enjoying life under Prayuth are going to not vote for him? If so why? Your entire line of thought lacks rationality.

[zzaa09]

31 minutes ago, h90 said:

Coups hurt who, a few oligarchs only

I can't see here any point that would hurt a regular Thai. How does it hurt a hard working Thai labor if some oligarch party got banned?
Thailand was always famous for book banning. Internet censorship was worst under Thaksin and he was proud of it.....He was proud of hiring 10.000 people to find and ban webpages. I can't see any increase in corruption. Poverty yes because of Covid, but I doubt that any party would have handled it much different.
People want to earn more money, want to have a car, house, aircondition and a future for their children. That did not improve, but also didn't go worse because of rice scam, self inflicted floods, massive government corruption, etc.. That government just ignored the normal people (beside Kratom, Marijuana liberalization which surprised me)

Cheers.......Kinda interesting how some [throughout this and other similar threads] might observe and critique recent times without whataboutism historic comparisons - attempting to gather convoluted political/societal advantage by using the good guys vs. bad guys scenarios......when in reality, there's not much difference between the two. 

 

Even more impressively ignorant is that no one realizes that all this decades upon decades long nonsense [regardless of government] has truly no personal effect on everyday Thais, as they remain steadfastly free, independent and self-sufficient for the most part. 

 

Very unique within particular anthropological and sociological studies. 

Referred to as the: mysterious Thai paradox. 

[zzaa09]

6 minutes ago, MrMojoRisin said:

The election result will show who the coup hurt. 
 

If, as expected, Pheu Thai win in a landslide, what do you think is the reasoning? Do you think people who are enjoying life under Prayuth are going to not vote for him? If so why? Your entire line of thought lacks rationality.

What kind of changes might you [et al] expect after this stirring election?

????????

 

[MrMojoRisin]

1 hour ago, zzaa09 said:

What kind of changes might you [et al] expect after this stirring election?

????????

 

At some stage, there will be a new democratic constitution - that is a given.
 

With every year that passes the electoral proportion of the younger generations of Thais will grow and grow until they utterly dominate.

 

Inequality will reduce because democracy will be firmly established.
 

Rural areas (everything outside Bangkok) will see a spurt of long overdue development

It could even go as far as seeing Generals in jail. The military will most certainly be stripped of their “business interests”.

Future Forward will likely win an election and form government within a decade.

Thailand and Thais will be freer than they have ever been.

 

And of course, Thaksin will be back home this year.

 

[zzaa09]

????????????

[herfiehandbag]

10 hours ago, h90 said:

Why do you want to change? What is currently so bad in Thailand? What greed? Thailand has lower taxes than most other countries, better infrastructure and it is extreme easy and cheap to open a company. With all the coups and the political discussions, Thailand is doing well in life quality, far better than their neighbors, Lao, Myanmar, Cambodia. So why the need to drastic changes?

On the outskirts of the village I live in is a crossroads. Every day at 6am people gather there, hoping to be hired for the day for field labour or construction work. The gang masters pick their labourers, pack them into the back of the pickups and off they go to the work sites, maybe an hour's ride away. They return around 6pm, and are paid off - 300 Baht for 12 hours work.

 

This scene plays out at countless other meeting points throughout North and Northeast Thailand.

 

Thailand is not doing well in "life quality" for a very substantial number of people. They live hand to mouth, day to day, in an essentially feudal society. Nothing has changed for them in the last ten years. 

 

They will cast their vote in the next couple of weeks. They will probably elect a populist party which has promised to improve their lot. Possibly a progressive one, with the same aims, perhaps the two will work together.

 

There will be a hiatus for a few weeks, after the inevitable manipulation, interpretations, EC and court challenges, the government which emerges will probably bear no resemblance to what was probably voted for. If it does then the threat of a military coup will emerge once it takes office.

 

One day these people will become an angry mob...

 

It is inevitable.

[h90]

11 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

On the outskirts of the village I live in is a crossroads. Every day at 6am people gather there, hoping to be hired for the day for field labour or construction work. The gang masters pick their labourers, pack them into the back of the pickups and off they go to the work sites, maybe an hour's ride away. They return around 6pm, and are paid off - 300 Baht for 12 hours work.

 

This scene plays out at countless other meeting points throughout North and Northeast Thailand.

 

Thailand is not doing well in "life quality" for a very substantial number of people. They live hand to mouth, day to day, in an essentially feudal society. Nothing has changed for them in the last ten years. 

 

They will cast their vote in the next couple of weeks. They will probably elect a populist party which has promised to improve their lot. Possibly a progressive one, with the same aims, perhaps the two will work together.

 

There will be a hiatus for a few weeks, after the inevitable manipulation, interpretations, EC and court challenges, the government which emerges will probably bear no resemblance to what was probably voted for. If it does then the threat of a military coup will emerge once it takes office.

 

One day these people will become an angry mob...

 

It is inevitable.

300 is bad...

When we built our house, several years ago in the South. The worker from Myanmar got paid 400 or 450 per day. Their wives were also hired (I think only 300 Baht per day), but they didn't work full. Some easy work and cooking. Maybe the South is better than Nord/Nordeast. Owner complained that he can't find people....
But I think even the 300 Baht is more than in Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos so Thailand is doing something better.
Solution would be better education and that the populist don't offer as well. More salary only will only mean everything gets more expensive and unemployment.

[zzaa09]

11 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

On the outskirts of the village I live in is a crossroads. Every day at 6am people gather there, hoping to be hired for the day for field labour or construction work. The gang masters pick their labourers, pack them into the back of the pickups and off they go to the work sites, maybe an hour's ride away. They return around 6pm, and are paid off - 300 Baht for 12 hours work.

 

This scene plays out at countless other meeting points throughout North and Northeast Thailand.

 

Thailand is not doing well in "life quality" for a very substantial number of people. They live hand to mouth, day to day, in an essentially feudal society. Nothing has changed for them in the last ten years. 

 

They will cast their vote in the next couple of weeks. They will probably elect a populist party which has promised to improve their lot. Possibly a progressive one, with the same aims, perhaps the two will work together.

 

There will be a hiatus for a few weeks, after the inevitable manipulation, interpretations, EC and court challenges, the government which emerges will probably bear no resemblance to what was probably voted for. If it does then the threat of a military coup will emerge once it takes office.

 

One day these people will become an angry mob...

 

It is inevitable.

Yes.....one day.

One day too late.