Draft Charter Ready For Vote

[hammered]

Buying the ID card would definitely have an effect on voting because you wouldnt be able to.

But don't forget - Samut Prakan has always been at the forefront of that particular trick. Long before Thaksin made his appearance Samut Prakan was dirty as it gets in terms of politics.

I have heard of it more in certain targetted Isaan areas but whatever. Samut Prakhans first family threw their lot in with T after getting creamed by TRT in his first victory if I rememeber correctly. One thing about all these elections is to watch the first families and their performance in their areas of influence. Most hold up well most of the time but there is always one who underperforms. How is Newin losing his home turf to the yes in an Isaan whitewash for no? That will be personally embarrasing for him.

[LaoPo]

Yes : 14,008,230 Votes

No : 10,226,677 Votes

Void : 471,276 Votes

22.42PM Thai time.

LaoPo

[Mid]

Yes : 14,008,230 Votes

No : 10,226,677 Votes

Void : 471,276 Votes

22.42PM Thai time.

LaoPo

critical mass has been acheived , roll on the election / appointment , ...................................

[hammered]

Yes : 14,008,230 Votes

No : 10,226,677 Votes

Void : 471,276 Votes

22.42PM Thai time.

LaoPo

critical mass has been acheived , roll on the election / appointment , ...................................

It does look like we have made it to virtually the end. Yes role on the election. Oh what fun......

What odds for who as next PM?

[ColPyat]

In percentage right now this is, with a bit more than 54% of eligible votes counted:

57% Yes

41% No

2% invalid

[Mid]

What odds for who as next PM?

a question better put to the next Defence Minister .......................................

[hammered]

What odds for who as next PM?

a question better put to the next Defence Minister .......................................

Mid I think we concur on who that will be.

What odds on him joining PPP

[Mid]

shorter than healthy ??

no doubt further conditions / adjustments / fine tunning will be actioned ,

there will be no derailing of this train ..........................

[hammered]

shorter than healthy ??

no doubt further conditions / adjustments / fine tunning will be actioned ,

there will be no derailing of this train ..........................

with the quick acceptance by the supposed opposition and todays nice words about the Junta and Surayud from Samak anything could happen right now. A time to enjoy the maneuvers but to be unable to predict them.

[A_Traveller]

Samak: Charter will just barely be passed

(BangkokPost.com) 15:55 19/08/07 - [Former] (sic) Bangkok governor Samak Sundaravej said he believes a draft constitution will be accepted at a national referendum but with slight margin.

Mr Samak, however, thanked Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont for reiterating that the government will hold a general election on December 16 or 23, saying this will ease political tension.

He also commented that he believes a larger group of people support ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra. "There are supporters of the Council for National Security, but there are also those supporting Mr Thaksin," he said. "And I can say that Mr Thaksin's supporters are larger."

Mr Samak confirmed Mr Thaksin will return to Thailand after the election. "He will come back after election," he said. "All charges are accusation against him."

Regards

/edit add time //

Edited August 19, 2007 by A_Traveller

[Mid]

'Yes' vote paves way for poll

Published on August 20, 2007

Poll officials report a medium turnout of voters

The draft charter sailed through the national referendum by a margin of about three votes to two - not good enough to reconcile a divided nation but a sufficient mandate to pave the way for a general election in December.

The Election Commission estimated voter turnout of 25 million, or 56.8 per cent of all 44.2 million eligible voters.

The EC's preliminary results from 95 per cent of the poll stations in the country's first-ever national referendum showed that 56.7 per cent of Thais (about 14.3 million voters) voted to support the new constitution, compared to 41.4 per cent (10.2 million voters) who voted against it. There were about 1.9 per cent of spoiled ballots.

nationmultimedia.com

[Mid]

Voting pattern shows that political divisions will be difficult to erase

Published on August 20, 2007

Yesterday's referendum showed the September 19 coup failed to change the political landscape: people cast ballots in accordance with political manoeuvring.

The result points to what may happen in the next general election.

Voters voted in line with directions adopted by political parties and factions. "People in the South supported the Democrats by voting yes while people in the North and Northeast cast their ballots along Thai Rak Thai group lines," former Thai Rak Thai member Suwat Liptapanlop said.

In the capital, twice as many votes were cast for the draft charter as against. Bangkok voters bought the junta's pitch that a yes vote would result in the early restoration of political order.

Bangkokians used their charter votes to dump what they called the "Thaksin regime" - the same as they did last year by opting for a "no vote" to reject his government.

People in the South - a stronghold of the Democrat Party - cast a majority of yes votes. The Democrats had declared their acceptance of the charter, although they said it was far from perfect.

Voters in the Central and lower North regions - political bases of the Chart Thai and Mahachon parties and the Machima group - voted according to the positions of these political entities: acceptance of the charter.

The margin between yes and no in the North was narrow because the military played a crucial role in manipulating the referendum.

snip

nationmultimedia.com

[cdnvic]

Not exactly a resounding victory is it?

[ColPyat]

Samak: Charter will just barely be passed

(BangkokPost.com) 15:55 19/08/07 - [Former] (sic) Bangkok governor Samak Sundaravej said he believes a draft constitution will be accepted at a national referendum but with slight margin.

Regards

/edit add time //

It seems that Samak has been rather accurate. The margin is only about 15%, with 56.6% "yes" against 41.4% "No".

[Mid]

Election body gets 173 complaints

Published on August 20, 2007

Vote buying, gifts, parties and free tours among the list of reported violations

The Election Commission received 173 complaints of violations in yesterday's referendum, secretary Suthipol Thaweechaikan said.

Meanwhile, the independent monitoring group People's Network for Elections in Thailand, or P-Net, reported vote buying and distribution of objects in several parts of the Northeast by those seeking rejection of the draft constitution.

The complaints received by the commission between August 10 and yesterday involved alleged vote buying, distribution of objects, free parties and tours, and illegal rallies.

Suthipol said after polls closed at 4pm that 70 complaints came from Bangkok and its surrounding provinces - the highest of all regions. That was followed by the Northeast, with 64 complaints, Central and the North with 17 complaints each, and five in the South.

The agency will investigate.

snip

nationmultimedia.com

Edited August 19, 2007 by Mid

[Mid]

Charter foes see victory in defeat

Published on August 20, 2007

Reactions to the referendum results from advocates of the "Vote No" campaigns are far from those of losers.

In fact, many were celebrating that more than 40 per cent of voters had rejected the charter as they monitored vote-counting late into the night.

"It's a wonderful surprise that the "No" vote count is as high as 40 per cent," said Asst Prof Somchai Preechasilpakul, dean of Chiang Mai University's Faculty of Law and prominent supporter of the anti-charter campaign.

"I personally expected a maximum of 30 per cent. So I'm more than pleased with the initial results."

Other supporters of the anti-charter campaigns expressed similar pleasant astonishment at the referendum result.

snip

nationmultimedia.com

[ColPyat]

Not exactly a resounding victory is it?

Not exactly.

And given the harassment of Constitution opponents (read Prachathai for detailed reports of arrests etc.), lack of media access for opponents, etc - there will be legitimate questions over the outcome of the poll, especially because the margin is only 15%.

It is time now, at least here on the forum, that Military apologists have to rethink their previous statement that the coup was supported by a vast majority of the country. It does not appear so, especially if you calculate the government propaganda in, that implied that if the constitution would be rejected elections might be delayed, and so somewhat pressing people into voting "Yes" for the simple reason that the want elections as fast as possible.

And further, which is an uncomfortable thought, there is more than a slight possibility, that TRT, now Pak Parang Prachachon, will return under either Samak or Chavalit to form the new government. And we are back again at square one.

The sad part is, that TRT was before the coup already in the process of splitting up.

[Mid]

Thais support army-backed charter, early tally shows

Thailand's first-ever referendum appeared set Sunday to endorse the country's 18th constitution that promises to weaken the political party system and strengthen the hand of the bureaucracy and military, initial unofficial results showed.

More than 50 per cent of the 45 million Thais eligible to vote participated in Sunday's plebiscite, the first to be held in Thailand's 75 years of semi-democratic rule after the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932.

snip

The Post Publishing Public Co

[Jingthing]

Not exactly a resounding victory is it?

By US standards, that margin is a LANDSLIDE. I think it is a resounding victory. Thats a 12 percent spread. That is huge. Way beyond any margin of error. The yes vote won and acting like it didn't is pointless, lame spin.

Edited August 19, 2007 by Jingthing

[cdnvic]

Not exactly a resounding victory is it?

By US standards, that margin is a LANDSLIDE. I think it is a resounding victory.

That's not the country I would hold up as a benchmark.

[Jingthing]

Not exactly a resounding victory is it?

By US standards, that margin is a LANDSLIDE. I think it is a resounding victory.

That's not the country I would hold up as a benchmark.

What country would you use?

Seriously, this was not close at all by any country's standard. Time to move on, for better or worse, and I think that is the message the voters sent.

Edited August 19, 2007 by Jingthing

[callipposhots]

in a two horse race, 56% would normally be thought of as being a pretty comfortable margin, even if 2% of the votes weren't invalid as they were in this referendum.

for example, Sarkozy only won the French Presidency with 53%, but nobody said that it was a close result. On the contrary, it was widely seen as a pretty easy victory.

[ColPyat]

Not exactly a resounding victory is it?

By US standards, that margin is a LANDSLIDE. I think it is a resounding victory.

That's not the country I would hold up as a benchmark.

What country would you use?

Seriously, this was not close at all by any country's standard. Time to move on, for better or worse, and I think that is the message the voters sent.

Well, not the US.

This was not a political election with two very similar political parties (such as in the US), but an election for or against a new constitution. An opposition of over 40% is significant, with a margin of only 15%.

In most countries, and normal situations, a constitutional change needs a 2/3 majority to be passed.

So, no, this is not time to "move on" - but to have some serious thoughts how this country can get back on track. Because, like it or not, regardless of what you or i favor - it is clear that the political crises is far from over and has gotten just new ammunition.

[Jingthing]

I agree this wasn't a typical election. Obviously.

This wasn't a vote on a constitutional change.

Until the vote, there was NO constitution.

Either a yes or no vote under the current situation did not mean an end to the political crisis.

All I am saying is that this chapter is over. The result is beyond dispute. It is no surprise at all that the Thaksinistas voted no. It would have been shocking if they hadn't. So where is the news in your so called large no vote?

Another point to consider. Everyone agrees that before the coup Thaskin still could have easily won a national election by a landslide. Well, he lost this one. So there has been a change.

Edited August 19, 2007 by Jingthing

[ColPyat]

in a two horse race, 56% would normally be thought of as being a pretty comfortable margin, even if 2% of the votes weren't invalid as they were in this referendum.

for example, Sarkozy only won the French Presidency with 53%, but nobody said that it was a close result. On the contrary, it was widely seen as a pretty easy victory.

Well, but this was not a political election, but a referendum for a constitution, with added significance of the popular opinion of the military.

In normal countries, and normal situations, constitutional amendments need a 2/3rd majority. This was not such a majority. An opposition of over 40% means that the political crises is far from over, especially because there will be legitimate questions given the documented harassments against opponents of the constitution, and how that might have affected the result. In this case a 15% margin is nothing to gloat about.

A constitution that has been opposed by over 40% of the voters, and a turn out of barely over 50% is definitely not the result the military and the government has hoped for, and it will prolong the crises and instability in Thailand.

[ColPyat]

I agree this wasn't a typical election. Obviously.

This wasn't a vote on a constitutional change.

Until the vote, there was NO constitution.

Either a yes or no vote under the current situation did not mean an end to the political crisis.

All I am saying is that this chapter is over. The result is beyond dispute. It is no surprise at all that the Thaksinistas voted no. It would have been shocking if they hadn't. So where is the news in your so called large no vote?

I am sorry, this is far from over.

There are documented violations in the pre run of the referendum, such as arrests of anti constitution activists, confiscation of their campaign material, martial law in many provinces, etc. Just read Prachathai's many articles on the subject. And Prachathai is clearly not "Thaksinista".

The news in the result is that even anti-coup activists such as the Sept. 19 network have expected at most 5 mio "No" votes. And no, this group is not "Thaksinista" either.

This result will not only fire up the opponents of the military and the constitution even further (and no, it is not just about Thaksin - for many democracy activists this is a continuous struggle that went on for many decades). This result is an indicator for many things, such as a possible return of TRT (and Thaksin), and many years of political and social instability ahead of us.

I do not give this constitution a long life, and neither do i rule out future coups (Read Gen Sonthi's sidestepping of the issue when asked by a reporter, and also Surayud's carefully formulated statements).

[Jingthing]

I agree. The problems are far from over. This new constitution will not be the last constitution. There will be future coups. This is all as predictable as saying Thais like rice. But this particular vote is over and decided, thats all. And there will likely be elections soon as well.

Edited August 19, 2007 by Jingthing

[callipposhots]

a 15% margin is nothing to gloat about.

I agree, they were never going to get the 68% some of the polls were predicting. But it is - just about - a mandate. I thought it would be about 60, no more than that.

and of course the country is still split, the south Yes vote - 86% - is huge. Take them out and it would look a lot closer.

[ColPyat]

I agree. The problems are far from over. This new constitution will not be the last constitution. There will be future coups. But this particular vote is over, thats all. And there will likely be elections soon as well.

Lets wait and see. I would not take things for too granted right now. The next few days will show us what direction the anti coup activists will take (TRT said that they accepted the result, but complained about the violations, but i still wait for UDD's future strategy).

We also have to see who is going to be next army commander in chief when Gen. Sonthi retires (please not Saprang!). There is still enough time to muck things up before the elections in December.

[ColPyat]

a 15% margin is nothing to gloat about.

I agree, they were never going to get the 68% some of the polls were predicting. But it is - just about - a mandate. I thought it would be about 60, no more than that.

and of course the country is still split, the south Yes vote - 86% - is huge. Take them out and it would look a lot closer.

I thought it would be around 70% "Yes". So, i am rather positively surprised by the high "No" votes, and at the same time worried about some of the implications.