ozimoron Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Just now, Lacessit said: I was not aware of that, interesting. Causation or coincidence? I'd like to know the answer to that as well. At a guess I'd say that both asset classes are highly speculative and so attract speculative investors as opposed to hedge funds. That said, hedge funds have now been forced to buy into high tech to balance their portfolios which has created a bubble. IF that's true, I'd expect a further price crash in both. My tiny portfolio (my form of gambling) is betting on that. I shorted NVDA, that's real, guts ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Neeranam said: Not true. OMG! Here's a screenshot of BTC from Nov '22 to now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neeranam Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Time in the market is better than timing the market. I got in in 2017. If I had DCA every single day since then the figures are following:- But obviously I would have stopped durin the peak of the bull run. However, even if you don't know anything about it, you could make money by DCA. https://cryptodca.io/crypto-dca-calculator/?coin=bitcoin&amount=100¤cy=usd&frequency=monthly&start=2022-11-1&end=2023-6-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neeranam Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, ozimoron said: OMG! Here's a screenshot of BTC from Nov '22 to now. I sold a house last year and bought BTC at an average of $17, 800 from Sep to Nov. I think I know what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Neeranam said: I sold a house last year and bought BTC at an average of $17, 800 from Sep to Nov. I think I know what I'm talking about. You did well and will possibly make a lot of money but that wasn't your claim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neeranam Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Just now, ozimoron said: You did well and will possibly make a lot of money but that wasn't your claim. MY claim was no one who has DCA has lost, no matter when they started buying. Tell me a time and I can prove it to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lacessit Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 IMO the precious metals market is manipulated. Having said that, I doubt any of them can crash to a fraction of their price, as happens with tech firms from time to time. https://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au3650nyb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Just now, Neeranam said: MY claim was no one who has DCA has lost, no matter when they started buying. Tell me a time and I can prove it to you. OK, november last year to now. Let's say you bought $1 per week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neeranam Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 (edited) This is $1 a day. https://cryptodca.io/crypto-dca-calculator/?coin=bitcoin&amount=100¤cy=usd&frequency=monthly&start=2022-11-1&end=2023-6-20 Edited June 25, 2023 by Neeranam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Lacessit said: IMO the precious metals market is manipulated. Having said that, I doubt any of them can crash to a fraction of their price, as happens with tech firms from time to time. https://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au3650nyb.html I think that's true of all markets. That said, Gold was over 2,000 about 12 years ago and fell to 1050. I'd call that a fraction. Like all markets, there's a time to buy and a time to sell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Neeranam said: https://cryptodca.io/crypto-dca-calculator/?coin=bitcoin&amount=100¤cy=usd&frequency=monthly&start=2022-11-1&end=2023-6-20 Sorry, I meant '21, not '22. My chart reflects what I meant Edited June 25, 2023 by ozimoron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neeranam Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, ozimoron said: Sorry, I meant '21, not '22. My chart reflects what I meant Well if someone was silly enough to be buying at the peak of the bull market, they would still be in profit, that was my point. $100 a day:- https://cryptodca.io/crypto-dca-calculator/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Neeranam said: Well if someone was silly enough to be buying at the peak of the bull market, they would still be in profit, that was my point. $100 a day:- https://cryptodca.io/crypto-dca-calculator/ True, but at one point a BTC portfolio would be down close to 50%. I am not a hodler for that reason. Right now you'd be up only 8%. Not good averages over 2 years. Please let me know how to pick the absolute top and bottoms, you seem to have a talent for it. To be clear, right now I'm bullish on BTC. Historically that probably means sell now. Edited June 25, 2023 by ozimoron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neeranam Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 1 minute ago, ozimoron said: True, but at one point a BTC portfolio would be down close to 50%. I am not a hodler for that reason. Right now you'd be up only 8%. Not good averages over 2 years. Please let me know how to pick the absolute top and bottoms, you seem to have a talent for it. Research. I'm not so good at picking the top. I don't usually invest in BTC but other coins. BTC is the safe, boring option. The 8% you talk of is if someone started buying at the worst possible time. The people who did this didn't do research, due diligence. How about the 2 years previous to Nov 21? BTC averages 100% a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Neeranam said: Research. I'm not so good at picking the top. I don't usually invest in BTC but other coins. BTC is the safe, boring option. The 8% you talk of is if someone started buying at the worst possible time. The people who did this didn't do research, due diligence. How about the 2 years previous to Nov 21? BTC averages 100% a year. Sure, that's why I have some BTC and am bullish on it now. BTC is a risky asset class. It does tend to follow central bank liquidity to some extent. That's why I'm a bit cautious on it now. We had 10 years of virtually free money which is why it bolted to 60k. Interest rates are rising and liquidity is being withdrawn from the US markets which imo don't portend well for BTC. It has never been a safe haven asset as some think it is, rather it responds positively to loose monetary policies. The high volatility of BTC reflects the riskiness of the asset which attracts some investors. Investment diversity dictates some BTC in any portfolio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubonr1971 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 4 hours ago, Neeranam said: There's a word in BTC called HODL. No one, I repeat no one who has bought Bitcoin and held for over 2.5 years has lost money. It's not rocket science. Even Michael Saylor can understand it. Ive been hodling for longer than that son.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moogradod Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 4 hours ago, Lacessit said: ......................... No one knows what will happen to bitcoin in a EMP event, I don't intend to find out the hard way. In case of such an event regardless of its cause (Hypernova = less probable, Nuclear explosion = more probable) I guess we all would have other problems than BC. But its not only about Bitcoins. Humanity is totally dependent on electricity. Nearly nothing would work anymore without. Some tribes in the Amazon could probably survive, but I am not even sure about that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neeranam Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 On 6/25/2023 at 5:56 PM, ubonr1971 said: Ive been hodling for longer than that son.. What's your point granda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 Bitcoin looks like it's coiling up, ready for an explosive movement. Hopefully to the upside as I have a couple of grand on it. disclaimer: I don't know any more than you do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 AAVE shot up the other day but pulled back about 50%. A perfect pullback showing strength. Straight up is never good. DOT is making higher highs and higher lows, another very strong chart pattern I like ARB, GRT, EOS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 (edited) 25 minutes ago, In Full Agreement said: For how long have some been claiming that BitCoin will reach at least 100K USD or even one million USD. Still quite a ways to go. Never have I suggested a target price for any crypto to the upside. The only time I suggested a price for bitcoin was to the downside. I missed by $800. Until recently I was quite bearish on crypto. It may still drop down. I just bought $500 more bitcoin. Edited June 27, 2023 by ozimoron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neeranam Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 1 hour ago, ozimoron said: AAVE shot up the other day but pulled back about 50%. A perfect pullback showing strength. Straight up is never good. DOT is making higher highs and higher lows, another very strong chart pattern I like ARB, GRT, EOS Like you, I'm good at seeing the bottom. I did that with DOT recently at $4.30. Feeling a bull run starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Neeranam said: Like you, I'm good at seeing the bottom. I did that with DOT recently at $4.30. Feeling a bull run starting. I'm useless at picking the bottom, especially bitcoin. Crypto is very hard to predict from T/A. I got the 24k downside target from a you tuber who I also pay $50 a month to for discord and members only videos. Link below. I should have acted on a Trading View article which said ti could go to 25k (overshot downwards by by $200) but I got greedy. I think bottom picking is a good way to lose money. Certainly DCA in like you said. I like to be a swing trader but major swing points come about rarely. Hopefully, we've just seen one. I like to see a turn or role change which can be any one of a number of patterns where it rejects a certain point and then returns to retest and subsequently rejects again. High probability trade. Another common signal is a deep V with a strong rejection combined with bullish RSI divergence. Or a double bottom with a series of higher highs and higher lows coming away from it. Such patterns are buys from me. Am I rich? No way, I'm still an apprentice. I play with small amounts of money. If I can't make a profit with small amounts of money now, I sure can't with larger amounts later. That said, I had a few go's at picking the top on NVDA and TSLA and META but got burned. Last Friday, I bought puts on them and several others and so far I'm in the green, like $30 total. If volume starts coming in I'll lay down some more. It's early days yet and this could be a small pullback. That's likely because the S&P 500 just ran up 20% from the swing low which is an indicator of a bull market. I'm waiting for gold to fall a bit more yet then I'm buying in. It could turn now for all I know. When it gets down to 1870 I'm going to start DCA in with an expectation that it will turn before 1810. Then I'll just sit on it. There are some out there saying gold could actually drop down to 1050 for a double bottom but I can't see any scenario that would allow that. I'm worried that a black swan event like Putin doing something very nasty might suddenly nip technicals in the bud and surge to price. Gold has maintained its price quiet high the last year or so and missed a couple of opportunities to sell off. I have a theory about gold's failure to break 2k lately and it's that Russia half pegged the RBL to the price of gold a few months ago but took it off at the end of May. So, Russia should have a lot of gold reserves now as they want to hedge against the RBL dropping. The west would not want to see gold rise too quickly until Russia burns some more of those reserves. That said, I think it's going to and soon. It's been a month since the peg was dropped. disclaimer: Don't follow me, I'm lost too. Edited June 27, 2023 by ozimoron 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neeranam Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, ozimoron said: I'm useless at picking the bottom, especially bitcoin. Crypto is very hard to predict from T/A. I got the 24k downside target from a you tuber who I also pay $50 a month to for discord and members only videos. Link below. I should have acted on a Trading View article which said ti could go to 25k (overshot downwards by by $200) but I got greedy. I think bottom picking is a good way to lose money. Certainly DCA in like you said. I like to be a swing trader but major swing points come about rarely. Hopefully, we've just seen one. I like to see a turn or role change which can be any one of a number of patterns where it rejects a certain point and then returns to retest and subsequently rejects again. High probability trade. Another common signal is a deep V with a strong rejection combined with bullish RSI divergence. Or a double bottom with a series of higher highs and higher lows coming away from it. Such patterns are buys from me. Am I rich? No way, I'm still an apprentice. I play with small amounts of money. If I can't make a profit with small amounts of money now, I sure can't with larger amounts later. That said, I had a few go's at picking the top on NVDA and TSLA and META but got burned. Last Friday, I bought puts on them and several others and so far I'm in the green, like $30 total. If volume starts coming in I'll lay down some more. I think there are some good guys out there - one is ivanontech on YouTube, another techdev on Twitter At this stage in the game/cycle, it's hard to go wrong, esp with alts - the upside is mush more than down. Finding that x100 can change everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Neeranam said: I think there are some good guys out there - one is ivanontech on YouTube, another techdev on Twitter At this stage in the game/cycle, it's hard to go wrong, esp with alts - the upside is mush more than down. Finding that x100 can change everything I used to watch Ivan on tech but stopped some years ago. I don't use YT for tech. That said, https://www.youtube.com/@TechWorldwithNana is pretty good. I watch this guy every weekday for stocks and bitcoin. He doesn't trade bitcoin I think, he never reveals his trades but drops a few hints in the private videos. I think he has good insight into the markets. https://www.youtube.com/@fxevolutionvideo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubonr1971 Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 7 hours ago, Neeranam said: What's your point granda? to be envious of me Neeranam is to be the lesser man son... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neeranam Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 1 hour ago, ubonr1971 said: to be envious of me Neeranam is to be the lesser man son... I have no idea who you are, or why you were replying to me! Why do you think I would be envious of you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neeranam Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 The Gaussian Channel has just flashed. The last time Bitcoin did this, it remained in the green for 900 days! https://www.binance.com/en/feed/post/221575 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubonr1971 Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 42 minutes ago, Neeranam said: I have no idea who you are, or why you were replying to me! Why do you think I would be envious of you? ''What's your point granda?'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) Wake me up when gold gets down to $1930. And BTC at 28,000. It just dipped below 28,500 for a second touch so that might be it. Edited August 1, 2023 by ozimoron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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