Thai economy loses steam: UTCC’s growth forecast trims to 3%

[webfact]

With an anticipated dip in exports and a delay in state budget preparation, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) revised its economic growth forecast for the current year to 3%, a decline from the previously estimated 3.6% in December last year.

 

The revised growth forecast is reflective of new government measures aimed at lowering the cost of living, which include reductions in electricity and fuel prices along with debt suspension programmes. The Thai economy is also expected to benefit from an estimated 100 billion baht boost from foreign tourist revenue.

 

The UTCC president, Thanavath Phonvichai, noted that the postponement in budget preparation for fiscal 2024 has directly impacted government investment. This, paired with a reduction in exports and the ongoing drought, has imposed an economic burden of 200 billion baht.

Taking these adverse factors into consideration, Thanavath estimates an economic drawback of 99 billion baht, which has cut GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points.

“From now on, we have to closely monitor the government’s measures to see whether they can restore economic confidence and investment.”

 

Despite the revised current-year projection, Thanavath maintains that the university’s GDP growth projection for 2024 remains at 4.5-5%, with the tourism sector being a key driving force.

 

by Alex Morgan

 

Full story: The Thaiger 2023-09-29

 

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[bob smith]

I give up.

 

yesterday it was going to a booming economy, today its going to shrink by 0.6%

 

kinda like the weather really, nobody has got a clue!

[2baht]

Nevermind, 20 million Chinese tourists are on their way here to take up the slack!  

[2baht]

Just now, bob smith said:

kinda like the weather really, nobody has got a clue!

Fine with a chance of showers! 

[bob smith]

2 minutes ago, 2baht said:

Nevermind, 20 million Chinese tourists are on their way here to take up the slack!  

and spit on the floors!

[spidermike007]

Whatever happens, the numbers will be lower than before. Thailand's days as a tourist mecca are behind it now. They will have to live on scraps. None of the myriad of issues that existed long before Covid have been addressed, and the quality of tourist Thailand attracts has been declining for years. Nearly anyone in the industry will attest to that. Few tourists will be interested in visiting a Quaker state, built on a foundation of fake purity, stripped of it's character, by fools who know nothing about anything.

 

The recession that is likely coming next year will not help. But, a lot of Thailand's current economic woes are largely self inflicted. This exceedingly reckless administration engaged in multiple, highly selective economic shutdowns, that favored their cronies, and punished the masses. They also kept the nation closed off for far too long, and decimated tourism. Then they partially re-opened, with draconian restrictions.

So, if you want to put the blame in the place it belongs, blame Prayuth and Prawit. They are the architects of the downfall of Thailand, the increased suicides, homelessness, crime, unemployment, and unhappiness of the people. 

[Srikcir]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

the postponement in budget preparation for fiscal 2024 has directly impacted government investment.

And that was largely the delay caused by the Senate that refused to endorse the MFP and coalition as House majority. Perhaps include the PTP that decided a power grab with the Senate and former government political supporters.

So now it's ironic that the PTP et al are so serious about increasing the GDP. Just like the Prayut to stall the GDP, then rally the public to increase it.

[retarius]

I expect by early January 2024 they will have a reasonably accurate growth forecast of around 0.8% or so.

The forecasts here start out nice and robust looking like 6% in Jan; trimmed to 5.5% in Feb when the re is zero growth in Jan2024; trimmed again in March to 5% et al until next year. Why don't we fire these forecasters and save their salaries?

[Cake Monster]

3 hours ago, 2baht said:

Nevermind, 20 million Chinese tourists are on their way here to take up the slack!  

Those 20 M Tourists from China have more than enough slack to take up in their own Country

[2baht]

Just now, Cake Monster said:

Those 20 M Tourists from China have more than enough slack to take up in their own Country

But................I read it right here, coming in droves! ????

[Cake Monster]

With the recent Base Rate hike to 2.5%, Inflation will still be out of control

But this is probably as high as the BOT can push the rate up due to all the highly volatile personal Loans which a higher rate would push many over the top into NPL

[redwood1]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Whatever happens, the numbers will be lower than before. Thailand's days as a tourist mecca are behind it now. They will have to live on scraps. None of the myriad of issues that existed long before Covid have been addressed, and the quality of tourist Thailand attracts has been declining for years. Nearly anyone in the industry will attest to that. Few tourists will be interested in visiting a Quaker state, built on a foundation of fake purity, stripped of it's character, by fools who know nothing about anything.

 

The recession that is likely coming next year will not help. But, a lot of Thailand's current economic woes are largely self inflicted. This exceedingly reckless administration engaged in multiple, highly selective economic shutdowns, that favored their cronies, and punished the masses. They also kept the nation closed off for far too long, and decimated tourism. Then they partially re-opened, with draconian restrictions.

So, if you want to put the blame in the place it belongs, blame Prayuth and Prawit. They are the architects of the downfall of Thailand, the increased suicides, homelessness, crime, unemployment, and unhappiness of the people. 

Well after the last few weeks many are saying....

Prayuth please come back....lol

 

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, redwood1 said:

Well after the last few weeks many are saying....

Prayuth please come back....lol

 

Most people I know would take Lisa, or even Justin Bieber over Cha Cha. 

[SingAPorn]

People are increasing their prices all over Thailand. It discourages foreigners from spending. Due to the absurd current US sanctions against Russia, the US has managed to export their inflation globally. Farangs have less money to spend and are more looking into comparing costs, If the local merchants do not understand, it is the entire economy who will continue to suffer.

 

Government must crack down on the cheats who end up in causing big losses on the national economy by overcharging. (but of course nobody will bother)

Edited September 29, 2023 by SingAPorn

[StayinThailand2much]

8 hours ago, bob smith said:

yesterday it was going to a booming economy, today its going to shrink by 0.6%

3% is not bad, IF it could be achieved...

[soalbundy]

30 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

3% is not bad, IF it could be achieved...

3% would be a dream for many western economies.

[Adumbration]

10 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

3% would be a dream for many western economies.

3% for the Thai ecomony is not a dream, it fantasy.  All statistics provide by the government here are pure fiction.

[Gknrd]

Not to worry, China will save Thailand. Now that the lockdown is over in China and the economy is back on track and the economy is booming .  Just a matter of time before Thailand's GDP will be a top performer again..