Are Flight Prices About To Fall?

[MangoKorat]

Since Covid flight prices have been crazy with airlines telling us that prices were driven by demand.  That may have been the case but recently I've seen signs that such demand is tailing off - it had to do some time.

 

My Qatar flight from Doha to Bangkok on 17 September was around 50% full and returning on 2 October was around 30% full.  I was able to sleep using 4 middle seats (Boeing 777 - 3-4-3 configuation) on both legs.  The Manchester-Doha and Doha-Manchester legs however, were almost full but that has regularly been the case. No chance of getting 4 seats on those legs anyway as they use a 787 with a 3-3-3 configuration.

 

Thailand may be experiencing unprecedented travel numbers from China and other Asian countries but the Doha-Bangkok route seems to be quietening.

 

Will this lead to a drop in prices at last?

 

I use to travel every 8 weeks but have had to cut that due to prices and talking to a few other regular travellers on the route, they've done the same.  This is no doubt where some of the customers have gone. Prior to Covid it wasn't unusual to see empty seat from September to November but I rarely saw them so empty.

 

There are also a few 'new' players on the UK/Thailand route now - their flight times are a little long for me but they seem to be getting shorter.  If a major player enters the game with decent total flight times, that could stir things up a bit.

[save the frogs]

not sure, but you can book flights a year in advance.

so you can compare future prices with the prices the previous year during the same period. 

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by save the frogs

[bunnydrops]

Maybe, but the price for extras like use of overhead compartment, seat-belts, and bathroom use will go way up.

[MangoKorat]

1 hour ago, save the frogs said:

not sure, but you can book flights a year in advance.

so you can compare future prices with the prices the previous year during the same period. 

 

I doubt that will give an accurate picture. Flight prices change daily, even hourly. I rarely book any earlier than 6 weeks in advance and that's always worked for me - however, you have to look regularly and have the funds available to pay immediately.  I've found prices, driven 3 miles to pay money into my account and found the flight had gone by the time I got back!

[save the frogs]

not falling .... stabilizing ... not increasing as much ,,, according to this

 

https://www.escape.com.au/travel-advice/will-international-airfares-drop-in-2024-only-if-you-get-in-quick/news-story/93aef6b560b8ffb45a93c3a6792a6621

 

 “While many would have welcomed a price drop, 2024 is seeing a continued increase in price though at a more modest level of 24 per cent compared to travel in 2023, according to KAYAK search data. This could be a hopeful sign that international flight prices could be starting to stabilise after a few years of significant price surges."

[nong38]

I have recently returned from a UK trip with Thai airways, they were at the time the best price and timings, 78k for the 2 of us. Food and crew good apart from breakfasts which were both dreadful but a good trip overall and about 6k less than Emirates on this occasion. One thing I did like was aa new proc at Heathrow, it took us just 25 minutes to leave the aircraft and get through security to pick up the luggage where the staff had removed the cases from the carousel, a simple but time saving job. Thai did a good job on this flight with a 777-300ER pretty full to LHR but a some empties coming back.

I looked today for my next year trip, prices at 43k each and claiming that return seating is either full or almost full. Emirates were 37k with a good choice of times and dates so I might be looking there. Qatar times are ok but even with using 59k of my avious points they still require 49k

BA still not flying the route switch to Qatar ( who are the major shareholder in the IAG group ).

With the trouble in the middle east I cannot see oil prices coming down in the near future and a return to pre covid airline tickets seems a long way off.