Life Insurance Report > ‘Excess mortality’ continuing surge causes concerns

[Red Phoenix]

" Despite some signs that excess mortality rates are declining, life insurance executives and actuaries believe the numbers are alarming and could continue to drag earnings and surge death claims for years to come.

 

Excess mortality is the difference between the total number of deaths for a specific time period and the number that would have been expected. The numbers were naturally forecasted to climb during the pandemic, but some industry and health authorities are concerned the rates haven’t greatly diminished as COVID infection rates have declined. "

...

[Samantha Chow, global leader for Life, Annuity and Benefits Sector at Capgemini, the giant multinational Paris-based consulting company]. said there’s a real question of whether the insurance industry can sustain the enormous payouts the excess mortality rates will dictate."

 

Source: https://insurancenewsnet.com/innarticle/excess-mortality-continuing-surge-causes-concerns

 

Graph from the CDC featured in the report.

https://insurancenewsnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Younger-death-rates-900x502.png

 

[PremiumLane]

“We believe that insured population will continue to see declining excess deaths over the next several years reaching about 0% excess deaths by 2030,”

 

You anti-vaxers are really scraping the barrel now

[Bkk Brian]

Here's the actual excess deaths in the US, declining and actually below average..........but yea listen to the money grabbing insurance companies..........lol

 

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

[Red Phoenix]

30 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Here's the actual excess deaths in the US, declining..........but yea listen to the money grabbing insurance companies..........lol

~

The two graphs feature a different period.  But when selecting the SAME period [January till May 2023] it is indeed striking that there is a huge difference in overall mortality between the CDC-data (the dotted black line for the featured period) and the chart from Our World in Data.

The only explanation I can think of for that striking difference would be that while the CDC compares the Jan-May 2023 mortality figures with the same period in 2019, that the graph from Our World in Data uses another 'baseline period' to compare the US mortality with.  

 

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

~

The two graphs feature a different period.  But when selecting the SAME period [January till May 2023] it is indeed striking that there is a huge difference in overall mortality between the CDC-data (the dotted black line for the featured period) and the chart from Our World in Data.

The only explanation I can think of for that striking difference would be that while the CDC compares the Jan-May 2023 mortality figures with the same period in 2019, that the graph from Our World in Data uses another 'baseline period' to compare the US mortality with.  

 

Thanks, confirmed below average for the last 5 years

[Red Phoenix]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Thanks, confirmed below average for the last 5 years

~

Yes, that's what The Our World in Data graph shows. 

But why then this HUGE difference when compared to the CDC data for the same period?

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, Red Phoenix said:

~

Yes, that's what The Our World in Data graph shows. 

But why then this HUGE difference when compared to the CDC data for the same period?

 

 

That data and graph is from the insurance company, why rely on that as a credible source, because they said its from the CDC?

[rabas]

So, why does Brian's true excess-death graph show minimal current excess death in contrast to Red Phoenix's?  Because real excess death is compared to a multi-year average, otherwise you can get bogus results. This is well known.

 

Phoenix's graph uses  a single year baseline, 2019, and only covers the first 5 months rendering the graph near meaningless. The graph was probably prepared by insurance companies to justify increasing rates. 

[Amethyst]

Several posts with off-topic, non-credible claims have been removed, along with ensuing replies, for contravening the forum's Community Standards.

 

"In factual areas such as news forums and current affairs topics member content that is claimed or portrayed as a fact should be supported by a link to a relevant reputable source."

 

"Topics or posts deemed to be scaremongering, deliberately misleading or which deliberately distort information will be removed."

[Red Phoenix]

9 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

That data and graph is from the insurance company, why rely on that as a credible source, because they said its from the CDC?

Insurance companies rely on mortality figures for their life-insurance actuary tables, and one of the main sources they use is the CDC Wonder database. < https://wonder.cdc.gov/ >

So I seriously doubt that Insurance NewsNet, an Insurance Industry publication, would publish fraudulent data.  

 

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

Insurance companies rely on mortality figures for their life-insurance actuary tables, and one of the main sources they use is the CDC Wonder database. < https://wonder.cdc.gov/ >

So I seriously doubt that Insurance NewsNet, an Insurance Industry publication, would publish fraudulent data.  

 

Please, making excuses for the insurances companies selected data is grasping at straws here

[rabas]

For a good understanding of excess mortality and calculations, check the HMD (human mortality database) the world experts. Note discussion on reliability and accuracy. 

 

https://www.mortality.org/

 

Cool domain name, wonder who owns www.dead.org. 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

 

Just a look at the U.S. part of this, which seems at odds with the graphic from the OP article:

Overall U.S. Death Rate Back to ‘Normal,’ COVID Pandemic Over

"July 18, 2023 -- In the worst periods of the COVID-19 pandemic, 30% more Americans than normal were dying each day.

 

But now, that percentage of “excess deaths” has bottomed out and is “no longer historically abnormal,” as The New York Times put it.

...

The improvement is due to three main factors, The Times reports:

• About 75% of adults have received at least one vaccine shot
• About 75% have had COVID, and received natural immunity from future symptoms
• Treatments for infected people have become widely available."

https://www.webmd.com/covid/news/20230718/overall-u-s-death-rate-back-to-normal-covid-pandemic-over

 

 

[rabas]

7 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

Insurance companies rely on mortality figures for their life-insurance actuary tables, and one of the main sources they use is the CDC Wonder database. < https://wonder.cdc.gov/ >

So I seriously doubt that Insurance NewsNet, an Insurance Industry publication, would publish fraudulent data.  

 

The data is not 'fraudulent'.  The graph was not prepared by the CDC, the graph was made using CDC data, presumably by the insurance industry. The graph is misleading because of data choices make by the graph preparer. It's purposely misleading to support increased insurance rates. 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The U.S. CDC website on excess deaths, with data  that continued through September 2023, looks only slightly different and seems to corroborate the NYT version above:

 

 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

 

 

[Red Phoenix]

3 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The U.S. CDC website on COVID related excess deaths, with data  that continued through September 2023, looks only slightly different:

 

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

~

You correctly state those date are for excess deaths ASSOCIATED WITH COVID-19.

But this topic is about trends in all-cause excess mortality, and the insurance industry is therefore worried about the implications of rising mortality trends as that will lead to much higher life-insurance pay-outs (as premiums and pay-outs are based on stable mortality).

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

16 minutes ago, Red Phoenix said:

You correctly state those date are for excess deaths ASSOCIATED WITH COVID-19.

 

The report/data is aimed at examining the impacts of COVID on excess deaths. But the CDC website cited above clearly says at the beginning of the second paragraph of text on the page:

 

"Counts of deaths from all causes of deaths, including COVID, are presented."

 

And for the specific chart I posted above, it clearly says in the headline for that specific chart:

 

"Weekly number of deaths (from all causes)"

 

That particular CDC website has different options that allow the viewer to generate chart data using different parameters, depending on which option is selected.

 

 

[Red Phoenix]

9 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The report/data is aimed at examining the impacts of COVID on excess deaths. But the CDC website cited above clearly says at the beginning of the second paragraph of text on the page:

 

"Counts of deaths from all causes of deaths, including COVID, are presented."

 

And for the specific chart I posted above, it clearly says in the headline for that specific chart:

 

"Weekly number of deaths (from all causes)"

 

That particular CDC website has different options that allow the viewer to generate chart data using different parameters, depending on which option is selected.

~

OK, apologies - my mistake...

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The same CDC website also allows the user to generate charts of weekly deaths based on age groups, and those results for 2023 (the blue line) certainly seem to disagree with the life insurance article chart as the data moves thru the year, showing 2023 numbers trending below those of prior years:

 

 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

48 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

The data is not 'fraudulent'.  The graph was not prepared by the CDC, the graph was made using CDC data, presumably by the insurance industry. The graph is misleading because of data choices make by the graph preparer. It's purposely misleading to support increased insurance rates. 

 

 

One of the life insurance representatives quoted in the article is someone who in the past has been cited by fact check sites for misrepresenting deaths data in connection with the pandemic.... But it's not clear from the article's website just who exactly prepared that chart / where it came from.

[impulse]

35 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The same CDC website also allows the user to generate charts of weekly deaths based on age groups, and those results for 2023 (the blue line) certainly seem to disagree with the life insurance article chart as the data moves thru the year, showing 2023 numbers trending below those of prior years:

 

 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

 

 

Interesting that there were never any excess deaths in the under 25 age group (even before the vaccines were available), yet they're pushing the latest round of vaccines for everyone over 6 months old.

 

Is it any wonder that the CDC is trying to regain the trust of the public?

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

10 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

Interesting that there were never any excess deaths in the under 25 age group (even before the vaccines were available), yet they're pushing the latest round of vaccines for everyone over 6 months old.

 

The CDC has tallied more than 1800 deaths of people age 18 and under in the U.S. due to COVID since the start of the pandemic....until they stopped updating the data last June.

 

Lower numbers than other, older age groups. But still a lot of what should have been needless / preventable deaths.

 

 

 

Provisional COVID-19 Deaths: Focus on Ages 0-18 Years

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Focus-on-Ages-0-18-Yea/nr4s-juj3

 

 

 

[impulse]

1 minute ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

I can't say whether they're "excess" or not, but the CDC has tallied more than 1800 deaths of people age 18 and under in the U.S. due to COVID since the start of the pandemic....until they stopped updating the data last June.

 

Lower numbers than other, older age groups. But still a lot of what should have been needless / preventable deaths.

 

 

 

Provisional COVID-19 Deaths: Focus on Ages 0-18 Years

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Focus-on-Ages-0-18-Yea/nr4s-juj3

 

1800 out of an under 18 population of 73,000,000.  So, a 0.002% chance of dying from Covid.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

1800 out of an under 18 population of 73,000,000.  So, a 0.002% chance of dying from Covid.

 

 

Tell that to the parents of the 1800+ children who died.

 

And of course, the death numbers don't reflect broader consequences such as hospitalizations, Long COVID symptoms, Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), etc.

 

One indicator of the recent, continuing COVID impacts on children in the U.S.:

 

"But a new analysis of federal data from the American Academy of Pediatrics showed hospital admissions among children are rising faster than average. Nearly 1,200 children were admitted to the hospital with Covid-19 during the week ending September 9, marking a five-fold increase over the past three months.

...

Children accounted for 6% of all Covid-19 hospital admissions during the week ending September 9, federal data shows. And children under 5 were the most at risk, with about half of all pediatric Covid-19 hospitalizations among those younger than 5, according to the AAP analysis."

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/22/health/covid-hospitalizations-seniors-kids-vaccines/index.html

 

 

 

 

[Amethyst]

A post citing unsourced and unsubstantiated statistics has been removed for contravening the forum's Community Standards.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The CDC, by the way, also tells us that COVID illness is continuing to kill more than 1,000 Americans every week (even though there's no longer an official U.S. COVID emergency declaration since the spring), with reported COVID death numbers rebounding this fall as shown below:

 

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklydeaths_select_00

 

Note: The most recent "gray" colored columns are colored as such because the recency of that data makes it less complete, as noted in an accompanying footnote, and not because those columns mean the most recent weekly tallies are falling.

 

"Data during recent periods are incomplete because of the lag in time between when a death occurs and when a death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS, and processed for reporting. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction. The most recent 3 weeks of mortality counts are shaded grey and mortality rates shown as dotted lines because NVSS reporting is <95% during this period.