The Investing Year Ahead

[Mike Lister]

Ignore list

[CapraIbex]

Being added to someone's 'ignore list' is unfortunate, and only the 'ignorer' will understand the reason(s). It could be as simple as getting out of bed on the wrong side, but I won't speculate further. One thing I know for certain is that it has no effect whatsoever on the 'ignoree,' especially when the assertion is laughable or a figment of the 'ignorer's' imagination. In the future, the 'ignorer' could consider adding a note to their original question specifying which responses are or are not acceptable, thus avoiding embarrassing exchanges of messages.

[swissie]

On 7/3/2024 at 1:48 AM, Mike Lister said:

 

Thai banks cannot sell repo's for less than their book value, their only strategy is to sit on them and write them down a little each year.

 

 

Officially yes. BTW, every major Thai Bank has a "repo-section", as part of their web-site.

According to my step daughter (working for a Thai Bank), the "book value" is as flexible as a rubber band.

A case in point: An interested buyer with cash in his hand finds the price of the "repo" too high. The Bank then finds out that a recent hailstorm has caused extensive damage to the roof, therefore the "book value" of the object must be lowered accordingly.

Buyer and Bank both happy. Thai legislation is as firm as anywhere else according to the letter of the law. This until the Thai legislative "rubber band" comes into play.

[Yellowtail]

4 minutes ago, swissie said:

Officially yes. BTW, every major Thai Bank has a "repo-section", as part of their web-site.

According to my step daughter (working for a Thai Bank), the "book value" is as flexible as a rubber band.

A case in point: An interested buyer with cash in his hand finds the price of the "repo" too high. The Bank then finds out that a recent hailstorm has caused extensive damage to the roof, therefore the "book value" of the object must be lowered accordingly.

Buyer and Bank both happy. Thai legislation is as firm as anywhere else according to the letter of the law. This until the Thai legislative "rubber band" comes into play.

Hey, can your step-daughter get me a deal on a repossessed house? 

[swissie]

14 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Hey, can your step-daughter get me a deal on a repossessed house? 

ANY "repo-admistrator" of ANY bank can give you a deal.
a) Show interest by contacting them frequently (establish personal contact).
b) Show, that you have the CASH to close the deal quickly.
c) Thats all it takes. Banks want to get rid of "repos".

[swissie]

2 hours ago, swissie said:

ANY "repo-admistrator" of ANY bank can give you a deal.
a) Show interest by contacting them frequently (establish personal contact).
b) Show, that you have the CASH to close the deal quickly.
c) Thats all it takes. Banks want to get rid of "repos".

Must add: This is a Thai to Thai constellation. Not necessarily applicable to Farang/Thai circumstances.

[swissie]

On 7/4/2024 at 12:21 PM, Mike Lister said:

My 14% Japan paid off....happy days.

Currency exchange rate?

[Mike Lister]

58 minutes ago, swissie said:

Currency exchange rate?

Exactly

[Thailand J]

S&P 500 index is up 17.5% year to date.

It was 5572 at last closing, will it be at 15000 by 2030? Tom Lee thinks so.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/25/1-index-fund-buy-before-it-soars-174-wall-street/

[Mike Lister]

Asia Dev, Japan and EM continues to look very very promising, they represent a combined 31% of my holdings currently. A pricey but reliable consideration is Invesco Pacific, which is up 18% since November.

[Mike Lister]

Copper Market’s Biggest Whale Fuels Speculation of a Major Shift

• State grid has been buying more aluminum and less copper
• Large-scale move to substitution could have huge demand impact

 

In China, copper is legally required for certain types of wiring or power generation usage, so traders are on high alert for any sign of a policy shift.

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

 

By Bloomberg News

July 16, 2024 at 8:57 AM GMT+7

Save

 

For months, as copper spiked to record levels and then fell back down again, one key question has bubbled up across the metals industry: What is China’s state grid operator up to?

The world’s single biggest buyer of copper, State Grid Corp. of China, has slowed its purchases of copper wire this year, while at the same time ramping up purchases of aluminum wire, a cheaper substitute. While arguably a natural response to soaring copper prices, the change has ignited a debate over whether there’s something bigger going on — if one of the metals industry’s most important but opaque buyers might be undergoing a shift in policy that could rock the global market.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-16/copper-market-s-biggest-whale-fuels-speculation-of-a-major-shift?srnd=homepage-asia

 

[Thailand J]

Nasdaq Composite Index is up 25% year to date.

Tech sector funds such as QQQ VGT are doing very well.

[Thailand J]

Brk B is up 21% year to date. Buffett will be 94 next month.

[Yellowtail]

12 hours ago, Thailand J said:

Brk B is up 21% year to date. Buffett will be 94 next month.

Buffett will may be 94 next month.

[swissie]

On 7/16/2024 at 6:36 AM, Mike Lister said:

Copper Market’s Biggest Whale Fuels Speculation of a Major Shift

• State grid has been buying more aluminum and less copper
• Large-scale move to substitution could have huge demand impact

 

In China, copper is legally required for certain types of wiring or power generation usage, so traders are on high alert for any sign of a policy shift.

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

 

By Bloomberg News

July 16, 2024 at 8:57 AM GMT+7

Save

 

For months, as copper spiked to record levels and then fell back down again, one key question has bubbled up across the metals industry: What is China’s state grid operator up to?

The world’s single biggest buyer of copper, State Grid Corp. of China, has slowed its purchases of copper wire this year, while at the same time ramping up purchases of aluminum wire, a cheaper substitute. While arguably a natural response to soaring copper prices, the change has ignited a debate over whether there’s something bigger going on — if one of the metals industry’s most important but opaque buyers might be undergoing a shift in policy that could rock the global market.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-16/copper-market-s-biggest-whale-fuels-speculation-of-a-major-shift?srnd=homepage-asia

 

 

[swissie]

Just now, swissie said:

 

Rats! Bloomberg article concerning Copper can't be read without subscribing. Can you give a "back door" to access this article?

[Mike Lister]

34 minutes ago, swissie said:

Rats! Bloomberg article concerning Copper can't be read without subscribing. Can you give a "back door" to access this article?

I'm sorry I can't. It basically says that the Chinese state is substituting cheaper aluminum for copper, on a large scale.

[swissie]

53 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

I'm sorry I can't. It basically says that the Chinese state is substituting cheaper aluminum for copper, on a large scale.

If the Chinese really need to look for a short term solution, they may go with Aluminum wiring. Longer term, Copper wiring is better.

Besides, Alu wiring has been cheaper for a long time, but "the world" hasen't switched to Alu wiring. For short term savings, appearantly the Chinese are trying to re-invent the wheel.

At any rate, given the "Chinese-Intentions" concerning this, the Copper Market will have to be re-analysed.

Remains Silver. China produces solar panels at a record rate. Needing Silver. Unless they will manage to substitute Silver by a highly conductive noodle soup, they will need to buy silver.

[Yellowtail]

Gold new all-time high...

[Mike Lister]

10 hours ago, swissie said:

If the Chinese really need to look for a short term solution, they may go with Aluminum wiring. Longer term, Copper wiring is better.

Besides, Alu wiring has been cheaper for a long time, but "the world" hasen't switched to Alu wiring. For short term savings, appearantly the Chinese are trying to re-invent the wheel.

At any rate, given the "Chinese-Intentions" concerning this, the Copper Market will have to be re-analysed.

Remains Silver. China produces solar panels at a record rate. Needing Silver. Unless they will manage to substitute Silver by a highly conductive noodle soup, they will need to buy silver.

Agreed on all points. The issue however is that if China is trying to cut corners and save money, the switch to alum will depress the price of copper or even cause it to fall. Such a move brings back memories of their foray into plane building in the 1970's. They bought Boeing but thought the spare parts prices were too high so they copied the parts, to save money. After several high profile plane crashes, the parts contract was reinstated. On that basis, I wouldn't be too quick to move out of copper yet.

 

Those things said, I'm somewhat skeptical about your idea that noodle soup might be a suitable substitute for silver, I shall buy a small allocation of noodle soup futures regardless.

[swissie]

On 7/19/2024 at 1:11 AM, Mike Lister said:

Agreed on all points. The issue however is that if China is trying to cut corners and save money, the switch to alum will depress the price of copper or even cause it to fall. Such a move brings back memories of their foray into plane building in the 1970's. They bought Boeing but thought the spare parts prices were too high so they copied the parts, to save money. After several high profile plane crashes, the parts contract was reinstated. On that basis, I wouldn't be too quick to move out of copper yet.

 

Those things said, I'm somewhat skeptical about your idea that noodle soup might be a suitable substitute for silver, I shall buy a small allocation of noodle soup futures regardless.

Noodle Soup futures! Hilarious. But in the old days we used to trade "porkbellies" and "shell eggs". Unsurpassed volatiliy and none of us had any idea of what we were doing. But exiting it was.

Other than that, I realise that China is now the second largest economy in the world. News from there affect investment decisions worldwide. I must get used to that. What bothers me is that the "News" from China are not so "transperant" and can easily be used for "political reasons".

"China News" bring back memories to my Porkbelly trading days, a time when I diden't know what I was doing as well.

[chiang mai]

For all you market watchers, a sea of red is flooding forward:

 

https://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices

[jas007]

39 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

For all you market watchers, a sea of red is flooding forward:

 

https://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices

 It’s probably a good buying opportunity, at least for some stocks.  On the other hand,  some stocks seem to be wildly overvalued, so a big correction seems about right.

 

The official narrative for the sell off is that recent data suggests that the U.S. is now in a recession, or is about to be.  How anyone didn’t know that long ago is beyond me.  
 

Lower interest rates = more cheap money = more inflation and further depreciation of the dollar.  In that scenario, why not have stocks? Long term, stocks seem like a better deal than a continually depreciating dollar.  As the saying goes, cash is trash.

[chiang mai]

Just now, jas007 said:

 It’s probably a good buying opportunity, at least for some stocks.  On the other hand,  some stocks seem to be wildly overvalued, so a big correction seems about right.

 

The official narrative for the sell off is that recent data suggests that the U.S. is now in a recession, or is about to be.  How anyone didn’t know that long ago is beyond me.  
 

Lower interest rates = more cheap money = more inflation and further depreciation of the dollar.  In that scenario, why not have stocks? Long term, stocks seem like a better deal than a continually depreciating dollar.  As the saying goes, cash is trash.

It will be, once we see bottom, it's difficult to know how deep down that will be.

[Yellowtail]

15 hours ago, chiang mai said:

It will be, once we see bottom, it's difficult to know how deep down that will be.

It's hard to tell when the market tops, but it's not difficult to know when the market bottoms. 

[swissie]

9 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

It's hard to tell when the market tops, but it's not difficult to know when the market bottoms. 

How can you tell when the market has bottomed? Every financial institution is desperately looking for you.

 

[swissie]

On 8/2/2024 at 4:52 PM, jas007 said:

 It’s probably a good buying opportunity, at least for some stocks.  On the other hand,  some stocks seem to be wildly overvalued, so a big correction seems about right.

 

The official narrative for the sell off is that recent data suggests that the U.S. is now in a recession, or is about to be.  How anyone didn’t know that long ago is beyond me.  
 

Lower interest rates = more cheap money = more inflation and further depreciation of the dollar.  In that scenario, why not have stocks? Long term, stocks seem like a better deal than a continually depreciating dollar.  As the saying goes, cash is trash.

"The official narrative for the sell off is that recent data suggests that the U.S. is now in a recession, or is about to be.  How anyone didn’t know that long ago is beyond me".

I don't quite agree with the above. 3 to 4 weeks ago, the narrative was rather "Tech stocks are well supported by strong earnings and the rate cut by the FED come September will put a floor underneath anyway" .

It shows the "vulnerability" of the markets. All it took were a few numbers that were below "expectations" and everything went south (International Stocks, Industrial Commodities. The US$. Even Gold caved in on Friday).

That raises the question: How to "diversify" if "everything" goes south at the same time for the same reasons?

- Appearantly the word economy can not live with elevated interest rates. The world economy needs "free money" (the worst of all addictions).
Not to worry. It's an election year. The FED will provide "free money" once more. Regardless how high or low the inflation rate will be.

[jas007]

26 minutes ago, swissie said:

"The official narrative for the sell off is that recent data suggests that the U.S. is now in a recession, or is about to be.  How anyone didn’t know that long ago is beyond me".

I don't quite agree with the above. 3 to 4 weeks ago, the narrative was rather "Tech stocks are well supported by strong earnings and the rate cut by the FED come September will put a floor underneath anyway" .

It shows the "vulnerability" of the markets. All it took were a few numbers that were below "expectations" and everything went south (International Stocks, Industrial Commodities. The US$. Even Gold caved in on Friday).

That raises the question: How to "diversify" if "everything" goes south at the same time for the same reasons?

- Appearantly the word economy can not live with elevated interest rates. The world economy needs "free money" (the worst of all addictions).
Not to worry. It's an election year. The FED will provide "free money" once more. Regardless how high or low the inflation rate will be.

 So another few months until the election and then we’ll see.  I think there’s no way out of seeing more inflation, regardless of who wins the US election. Trump doesn’t seem interested in controlling government borrowing. Ditto for the Democrats.  

[chiang mai]

9 hours ago, swissie said:

"The official narrative for the sell off is that recent data suggests that the U.S. is now in a recession, or is about to be.  How anyone didn’t know that long ago is beyond me".

I don't quite agree with the above. 3 to 4 weeks ago, the narrative was rather "Tech stocks are well supported by strong earnings and the rate cut by the FED come September will put a floor underneath anyway" .

It shows the "vulnerability" of the markets. All it took were a few numbers that were below "expectations" and everything went south (International Stocks, Industrial Commodities. The US$. Even Gold caved in on Friday).

That raises the question: How to "diversify" if "everything" goes south at the same time for the same reasons?

- Appearantly the word economy can not live with elevated interest rates. The world economy needs "free money" (the worst of all addictions).
Not to worry. It's an election year. The FED will provide "free money" once more. Regardless how high or low the inflation rate will be.

It's almost impossible to avoid global markets contagion these days, I don't think there is much protection for the average investor outside of constantly buying an array of puts. The downturn that started on Wednesday/Thursday combined regional markets response to YEN movements and was quickly followed by the US unemployment report. The only upside potential at that point was to be in the right kind of bonds but even that hasn't mitigated the extent of the falls that are likely. The question now is, what instruments/markets have the shortest time to recovery, EM might be a good starting point given a weaker USD.

 

[chiang mai]

Commentators now saying that the markets melt down is merely a reaction to end of the large scale carry trade involving YEN and not much to do with the US economy at all. The Nikkei is up 13% this morning. That seems more plausible to me.