Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

But they certainly wouldn't be game changers then if that was the case. It is back to ammo, artillery and barrels and drones. Given the widespread informed information out there about NATO missiles and the size of the inventory I am curious as to why Zelenskiy is highly focused on them in megaphone diplomacy.

Who claimed they would be game changers? Making things up again.

 

Do you even read what I post?

 

"Calling the lifting of restrictions a "game changer is probably too strong a word," 

[beautifulthailand99]

5 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Who claimed they would be game changers? Making things up again.

 

Do you even read what I post?

 

"Calling the lifting of restrictions a "game changer is probably too strong a word," 

Apologies have just re-read your post - I speed read so sometimes I miss detail. Thankyou for helpfully pointing that out.

[beautifulthailand99]

Looking like Ukraine has accepted they won't be getting long range Storm Shadow acess anytime soon and that's without the fact they are precious few to give anyway. My view is there are 2 things at play here - optics for the west with Biden leading on reticence deferring to Putin's sabre rattling and second the inventory issue which is more chronic they don't have many to give so they obsfucate the real reasons. Zelenskiy's entreaties are real he needs help and fast and isn't getting it from his partners.

 

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38971

 

“There is no change to our view on the provision of long-range strike capabilities for Ukraine to use inside of Russia,” he said, adding that he “would not expect any major announcement in that regard.”

Starmer told reporters at the White House that he had a “wide-ranging discussion about strategy” with Biden but that it “wasn’t a meeting about a particular capability.”

Starmer had been expected to pressure Biden to back his plan to send British Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine so they could hit deeper inside Russia.

 

 

 

[coolcarer]

5 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Looking like Ukraine has accepted they won't be getting long range Storm Shadow acess anytime soon and that's without the fact they are precious few to give anyway. My view is there are 2 things at play here - optics for the west with Biden leading on reticence deferring to Putin's sabre rattling and second the inventory issue which is more chronic they don't have many to give so they obsfucate the real reasons. Zelenskiy's entreaties are real he needs help and fast and isn't getting it from his partners.

 

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38971

 

“There is no change to our view on the provision of long-range strike capabilities for Ukraine to use inside of Russia,” he said, adding that he “would not expect any major announcement in that regard.”

Starmer told reporters at the White House that he had a “wide-ranging discussion about strategy” with Biden but that it “wasn’t a meeting about a particular capability.”

Starmer had been expected to pressure Biden to back his plan to send British Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine so they could hit deeper inside Russia.

 

 

 

What you think and what Zelensky thinks are probably two very different things.

 

The government believes the US is still likely to give the green light at the UN general assembly in New York, although there are splits within President Biden’s administration.
David Lammy, the foreign secretary, told Laura Kuenssberg on BBC1 that there needed to be a “shared strategy” among western allies.
He said: “It’s important that as allies supporting Ukraine, we have a shared strategy to win going forward. Now we’ve been discussing this with the United States and with other key allies, but of course, we head to the UN general assembly, where we will all meet with Zelensky in just under 12 days’ time.”

https://archive.is/GRI8T#selection-1597.0-1634.0

 

Times Link to no paywall

[thaibeachlovers]

11 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

But they certainly wouldn't be game changers then if that was the case. It is back to ammo, artillery and barrels and drones. Given the widespread informed information out there about NATO missiles and the size of the inventory I am curious as to why Zelenskiy is highly focused on them in megaphone diplomacy.

? propaganda? Trying to scare the Russians that he will have the ability to hit deep into Russia.

 

IMO for every missile they managed to hit something with, they'll get a reply several times larger.

No wonder the US is so exercised about Russia's allies supplying missiles, if the allies don't have the manufacturing capacity. As usual, planning to fight the last war, IMO.

[Patong2021]

US would prefer to keep things calm until after the November election.

 

[Mavideol]

He's running out of meat canon feeder, need more ""voluntaries""

Putin orders expansion of Russia’s military to 1.5M active troops

https://au.yahoo.com/news/putin-orders-expansion-russia-military-192724872.html

 

[beautifulthailand99]

2 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

US would prefer to keep things calm until after the November election.

 

Quite - Harris wants to concentrate on domesric issues and avoid interviews so it's steady as she goes until post election. Whatever the collective decision of Europe/UK maybe going it alone it doen't hide the fact that's their precious little imventory as it is. Ukraine wants some more mega PR wins like Crimea and the destruction of the Russian Navy to attempt to gain the upper hand for the much vaunted negotiations and to deflect from the bloody attrition war in the Donbas and the faltering Kutsk incursion.

[beautifulthailand99]

US military aid packages to Ukraine shrink amid concerns over Pentagon stockpiles - CNN

 

As Budanov pointed out in an earlier post the DPRK has provided virtually unlimited artillery shells and as an ancient former proxy of the 1950s Soviet Union they share a lot of historic kit.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/17/politics/us-reducing-military-aid-packages-ukraine/index.html

 

 “Replenishment is also an issue,” the official said. The US is ramping up production of key items, such as 155 mm ammunition and Patriot missile systems, both to supply Ukraine and to refill US inventories. But it is a yearslong process that won’t quickly meet the surging demand.

Before the war in Ukraine, the US produced approximately 15,000 155 mm artillery shells each month. With new factories and production lines opening, the US is now producing 40,000 shells a month. But it will still take more than a year for the Pentagon to hit its goal of 100,000 shells each month. The process of ramping up production is on schedule, but the process will take years, requiring new facilities, expanded factories and Congress willing to allocate the money.

[beautifulthailand99]

 Kyiv launched Kursk incursion despite high-level objections

Some of Ukraine’s top army commanders questioned the cross-border assault, Ukrainian military officials tell POLITICO.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/kursk-russia-incursion-objections-war-in-ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy/

 

Others who opposed the offensive included the highly respected Emil Ishkulov, commander of Ukraine's 80th Air Assault Brigade. He was dismissed in July amid protests from high-ranking officers who called for him to be kept in post. “We don't understand why commanders who have unquestioned authority among the personnel, who have a victorious combat record and experience of a big war, are out of favor to the top leadership of the armed forces,” the commanders said in a protest video posted on social media sites.

 

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-80th-brigade-against-commander-dismissal-he-will-allegedly-be-promoted/

 

Zaluzhny’s objection to the incursion, meanwhile, was that there was no clear second step after the border had been successfully breached by elite Ukrainian units drawn from four brigades, according to these officials. Zaluzhny queried: once you have the bridgehead, what then? “He never got a clear answer from Zelenskyy,” said one of the officials. “He felt it was a gamble,” he said.

[beautifulthailand99]

900 days into the war and sanctions are like a leaky sieve.Default global morality is just like Thailand, there is no 'bad' money - just money.

 

 West funding Putin’s soldiers with growing Russian fuel purchases, report warns

Countries opposed to Moscow are spending ever more on cheap fuel made from Russian oil, according to a new analysis shared with POLITICO.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/west-funding-vladimir-putin-soldier-russia-fuel-oil-ukraine-war/

 

The imports are technically legal due to a well-known sanctions workaround. While the EU and its Western allies banned nearly all Russian oil imports long ago, countries can still buy fuel of Russian origin if it is first processed in another country, such as Turkey.

According to the report, Turkey — and the Western firms buying from it — is taking increasing advantage of this so-called refining loophole, despite repeated Ukrainian pleas that it be closed.  

 

According to the authors of the report, one of the Turkish refineries, the Azerbaijan-owned Star Aegean, is 98-percent dependent on Russian crude, with some 73 percent of its supplies coming from Russian energy giant Lukoil, which the U.S. has sanctioned. Nevertheless, almost nine in 10 barrels from the refinery go to Western allies backing Ukraine.

 

https://starrafineri.com.tr/?lang=en

[Bkk Brian]

On 9/16/2024 at 8:00 AM, tgw said:

Bank of Russia increases the key rate by 100 bp to 19.00% p.a.
https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/

So much for the claims that "Russia's economy is doing fine"

Classic war economy. 

[Bkk Brian]

Why Ukraine are fighting these terrorists and ignore the haters who do nothing but diss there efforts.

 

Posted by Ukraine's Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights

 

 

https://x.com/lubinetzs/status/1835927628840054796

 

[beautifulthailand99]

EU plans to raise up to €40bn in loans for Ukraine without US
Brussels drafts alternative funding solution to circumvent a Hungary veto on extending the freezing of Russian assets

 

https://archive.is/FcrIE

 

The important thing to note is that these are loans secured on the assett with an expectation that Ukraine will pay them back in an orderly fashion. It would appear the West falters at the thought of seizing Russian assets unilaterally and disbursing the money directly lest other autocratic investors take umbrage and divest from the dollar/euro areas.  Looks like sub prime loans that ended boomeranging back onto central banks , clever financial instruments seldom are in the end.

[Bkk Brian]

ISW

 

Ukrainian forces regained territory near Kharkiv City and Pokrovsk.

Russian forces advanced near Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar.

 

[Patong2021]

10 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Classic war economy. 

Now, now. The Russian agents, stooges and bots have assured us that the  Russian economy is doing well. Remember that they have China and Iran on their side and when that argument  fails, they shall give us a chorus of  Brics, Brics, Brics.

[Patong2021]

12 hours ago, Mavideol said:

He's running out of meat canon feeder, need more ""voluntaries""

Putin orders expansion of Russia’s military to 1.5M active troops

https://au.yahoo.com/news/putin-orders-expansion-russia-military-192724872.html

 

 

thailand and Turkey  will wlecome more  Russian "visitors".  😁

[beautifulthailand99]

Many western news sources are finding the reasons behind the Kursk incursion either elusive or failing in their intent to divert Russian resources from the Donbas fronts.

 

Russia dials up pressure on Ukraine’s Kursk offensive
Moscow claims it is retaking territory occupied by Kyiv, but Putin has not shifted forces away from Donetsk

 

https://archive.is/CFNRZ#selection-1723.0-1727.108

 

But there has so far been little success for Ukraine in its aim of forcing Moscow to divert substantial forces away from the country’s east, where Kyiv’s exhausted troops are steadily losing ground. Russia has, if anything, stepped up the pressure within Ukraine, particularly around the important railway hub of Pokrovsk.
The overall success of the Kursk invasion will now hinge on the costs Ukraine incurs in holding on to territory, potentially for months, according to analysts. And those costs will depend on the tactics Russian forces use to try to push the Ukrainian invaders out.

[beautifulthailand99]

 

Notice how the controversial Yermak the power behind the "throne" is on the panel and of course Boris who enobled Lebedev as Lord of Siberia. "Something is rotten in the state of Denmark "

 

 

[Danderman123]

In Vovchansk, Russian forces that were holding positions for a long time in the aggregrate plant, were reportedly ousted from these positions. Russians also published footage in which they are shelling the plant, confirming Ukrainian presence. This assumption is reinforced by several Ukrainian military channels indicating that positions have been recaptured in Vovchansk.

[ballpoint]

8 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

 

thailand and Turkey  will wlecome more  Russian "visitors".  😁

 

But the visitors are almost exclusively Slavic Russians, from the richer parts of the country, whereas the conscripts tend to be "selected" from other ethnic groups in poorer regions.  If Putin changes policy and starts taking Moscow and St Petersburg residents as conscripts then we could well see a big increase in visitors, along with a big turn against him in those cities, otherwise  it will be business as usual; Conscript the poor and powerless to feed the cannons while the Muscovites who haven't already left pretend the war isn't happening.

[Mavideol]

Kyiv investigates alleged Russian execution of Ukrainian soldier with sword inscribed ‘for Kursk’

https://au.yahoo.com/news/kyiv-investigates-alleged-russian-execution-195825556.html

[Mavideol]

The decision Putin is certain to regret

 

The decision Putin is certain to regret (msn.com)

[Mavideol]

Putin activates his clandestine networks in Europe

 

Putin activates his clandestine networks in Europe (msn.com)

[Mavideol]

Kremlin says Russia boosting army size due to 'threats' (msn.com)

 

 

Kremlin says Russia boosting army size due to 'threats'

[Mavideol]

Russia orders evacuations in Kursk region, Ukraine invites UN and Red Cross to ‘ensure rights’ there

https://au.yahoo.com/news/kyiv-invites-un-red-cross-120323906.html

 

[Mavideol]

Russia has likely suffered over 610,000 causalities in Ukraine, says UK MoD

 

Russia has likely suffered over 610,000 causalities in Ukraine, says UK MoD (msn.com)

[beautifulthailand99]

Good morning.

 

US believes Zelensky's peace strategy 'can work,' official says -Kyiv Independent

 

https://kyivindependent.com/us-believes-zelenskys-peace-strategy-can-work-official-says/

 

U.S. officials have seen President Volodymyr Zelensky's Victory Plan and believe it is a strategy "that can work," U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said during a press briefing on Sept. 17.

Zelensky on Sept. 16 said that his Victory Plan for Ukraine is over 90% complete, and that he will present the plan to allies next week. The details of the strategy have not been released to the public

 

One does wonder what this plan could be that doesn't include Russia. Start ww3 ,NATO boots on the ground , give us everything we want  (and you don't have) like yesterday , beef up leaky sanctions  ?

 

[johng]

It is an extremely cunning plan...no doubt as mentioned above requires Russia to return all territory,pay reperations in perpetuity give upits nuclear arsenal and  burn the evil "Hitler Putin"in red square on worldwide TV as a deterrent to others who would threaten "The rules based world order"

[Bkk Brian]

More Russian evacuations due to some excellent targeting of huge ammunition's warehouses

 

Things got hot in Russia's Tver region overnight as Ukrainian drones descended on what may have been one of the largest missile and ammunition storage locations in the country.

Evacuations have begun in several settlements across the region.

In 2018, Russia openly admitted to constructing a missile storage arsenal in Toropets.