What’s causing all the excess death?

[Robert Paulson]

https://bmjpublichealth.bmj.com/content/bmjph/2/1/e000282.full.pdf

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

COVID!!!

 

I know this may come as a surprise to some here, but we had a bit of a COVID pandemic during the past years since 2020 that officially killed 7+ million people based on official death reports, but based on rates of higher than normal deaths, probably killed somewhere between 20 and 30 million directly and indirectly.

 

Per the New York Times from March:

 

The true toll

 

"Covid’s confirmed death toll — more than seven million people worldwide — is horrific on its own, and the true toll is much worse. The Economist magazine keeps a running estimate of excess deaths, defined as the number of deaths above what was expected from pre-Covid trends. The global total is approaching 30 million.

 

This number includes both confirmed Covid deaths and undiagnosed ones, which have been common in poorer countries. It includes deaths caused by pandemic disruptions, such as missed doctor appointments that might have prevented other diseases. The isolation of the pandemic also caused a surge of social ills in the U.S., including increases in deaths from alcohol, drugs, vehicle crashes and murders.

 

Globally, Covid ranks among the worst killers since 1900. AIDS, for example, is estimated to have killed about 40 million people, but over a half century rather than only four years. The 1918 flu killed somewhere between 20 million and 50 million people."

 

https://archive.ph/niVyc

 

The above cited study in the OP takes a partial look at the phenomenon of excess deaths during the COVID era, tallying excess deaths in 47 western countries by year for the years 2020, 2021 and 2022 -- the years of the COVID pandemic with the highest death tolls thus far.

 

Excess mortality across countries in the Western World since the COVID-19 pandemic: ‘Our World in Data’ estimates

of January 2020 to December 2022

 

"Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic has been substantial. Insight into excess death rates in years following WHO’s pandemic declaration is crucial for government leaders and policymakers to evaluate their health crisis policies. This study explores excess mortality in the Western World from 2020 until 2022.

...

Conclusions Excess mortality has remained high in the Western World for three consecutive years, despite the implementation of containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines. This raises serious concerns. Government leaders and policymakers need to thoroughly investigate underlying causes of persistent excess mortality."

 

This issue has been examined previously by various reports and studies:

 

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

 

March 2024, The Lancet

 

"An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic).

 

Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00476-8/fulltext#

 

AND

 

14.9 million excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021

 

The WHO, May 2022

 

"New estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO) show that the full death toll associated directly or indirectly with the COVID-19 pandemic (described as “excess mortality”) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021 was approximately 14.9 million (range 13.3 million to 16.6 million). 

 

“These sobering data not only point to the impact of the pandemic but also to the need for all countries to invest in more resilient health systems that can sustain essential health services during crises, including stronger health information systems,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General. “WHO is committed to working with all countries to strengthen their health information systems to generate better data for better decisions and better outcomes.”

 

https://www.who.int/news/item/05-05-2022-14.9-million-excess-deaths-were-associated-with-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-2020-and-2021

 

Lastly, worth noting, the period of the OP cited study stops at the end of 2022, meaning nothing in their report deals with anything that's happened in the studied countries from 2023 and beyond. So it's not any kind of look at what's occurring in current times.