Putin and Kim Pledge Mutual Help Against 'Aggression'

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Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un have formalized a significant agreement in Pyongyang, pledging mutual assistance in the event of "aggression" against either Russia or North Korea. This development was announced by Putin following his first visit to North Korea since 2000, marking a critical moment in the burgeoning alliance between the two nations.

 

Kim Jong Un emphasized that the pact elevated their relationship to "a new, high level of alliance." The agreement, which has raised concerns in the West, signifies a deepening partnership that could have considerable global ramifications. Observers suggest that a mutual defense treaty could see Russia supporting North Korea in future Korean Peninsula conflicts, while North Korea could openly assist Russia in its ongoing war in Ukraine.

Kim is already accused of supplying Russia with weapons, while Putin is believed to be providing North Korea with space technology that could enhance its missile program. This alliance, strengthened by their recent comprehensive partnership agreement, includes a clause for mutual assistance against aggression, though Putin did not specify what would constitute such aggression.

 

Facing battlefield difficulties in Ukraine, particularly with dwindling weapon supplies, Putin's meeting with Kim in September likely included discussions on military cooperation and potential arms deals. Evidence suggests Russia has been using North Korean missiles in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Western nations, including the U.S. and NATO allies, have permitted Ukraine to use Western weapons on Russian soil, a move that Kyiv hopes will shift the conflict in its favor.

 

Putin has warned of consequences and suggested arming adversaries of the West with long-range weapons, a capability North Korea has been developing. He criticized the West's decisions as violations of international obligations and condemned sanctions on Russia and North Korea, asserting that both nations reject "the language of blackmail and diktat."

 

Kim praised the treaty as a historic milestone in their relations and expressed unwavering support for Russia in its war on Ukraine. The pact is likely to provoke Seoul, which had previously cautioned Russia against exceeding certain limits in its alliance with North Korea. South Korean National Security Adviser Chang Ho-jin emphasized that Russia should consider which country would be more important to it post-Ukraine war.

 

Experts, such as Rachel Lee from the Stimson Center, warn that this treaty could significantly impact the region and the world. Continued North Korean weapons supplies to Russia, combined with Russian military technology support to North Korea, could exacerbate global weapons proliferation issues. Chad O’Carroll of NK News highlighted the possibility of North Korean soldiers assisting Russia in Ukraine.

 

Putin's visit to Pyongyang was marked by elaborate ceremonies, including a red-carpet welcome and choreographed displays of North Korean propaganda. He was greeted by Kim with an embrace upon arrival and was ferried through the capital, which was brightly lit despite the country's chronic electricity shortages. The spectacle featured massive crowds, military parades, and grand portraits of the two leaders, reflecting North Korea's traditional display of fervent devotion.

 

During his stay, Putin attended a gala concert and state banquet, where he received a second luxury Aurus car from Kim, along with other ceremonial gifts. Kim, in turn, received a ceremonial admiral's dagger and a tea set from Putin. This visit underscored the historical significance of their alliance, with Putin last visiting Pyongyang in 2000 to meet Kim's father, Kim Jong Il.

 

North Korea's economy has deteriorated under international sanctions, prompting Kim to seek crucial aid from Russia, including food, fuel, foreign currency, and technology. Russia played a pivotal role in supporting the Kim regime during Soviet times. Putin had promised to assist North Korea in developing its satellites, which the U.S. believes are intended to bolster its ballistic missile capabilities.

 

This alliance not only strengthens their mutual support but also aims to counterbalance international sanctions by creating alternative networks of cooperation. Jeffrey Lewis from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies notes that this partnership is part of a broader effort to establish a multipolar world order, challenging the current international system led by the U.S. and its allies.

 

A wary Beijing is watching

China, the dominant power in the region, remains a critical factor in this equation. Despite the apparent camaraderie between Putin and Kim, their alliance must navigate China's influence. Reports suggest Beijing discouraged Putin from visiting Pyongyang immediately after meeting Xi Jinping, reflecting China's strategic considerations. Xi faces pressure from the U.S. and Europe to reduce support for Moscow and curb the sale of components fueling Russia's war in Ukraine.

 

 

China's relationship with North Korea is also complex. While providing political cover for Kim's nuclear ambitions, Beijing is wary of an emboldened North Korea. Kim's weapons tests have led to increased U.S. military presence in the region, heightening China's concerns about an "East Asian NATO."

 

Russia might reconsider extensive military technology transfers to North Korea to avoid straining its relationship with China, a vital ally providing essential economic support. Similarly, North Korea's reliance on China for trade and resources underscores the limits of its partnership with Russia. Despite their declarations against the "imperialist West," the alliance between Russia and North Korea appears transactional and strategically limited compared to their ties with China.

 

The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Russia and North Korea does not guarantee sustained ammunition supplies, as North Korea must also maintain its own defenses against South Korea. Analysts point out the potential technical and logistical challenges in aligning the two nations' military systems, as well as the long-standing priority differences in their relations.

 

Ultimately, while the Russia-North Korea alliance signals a significant geopolitical shift, both nations remain heavily dependent on China. Their relationship with Beijing is crucial, balancing their wartime partnership with the broader strategic imperatives shaped by China's global ambitions and economic interdependencies.

 

Credit: BBC 2024-06-20

 

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