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Latest Nate Silver Predicition


Chwooly

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49 minutes ago, Chwooly said:

Who is Nate Silver you ask? 

 

He is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight

 

Let the flaming begin

 

 

*The best stat ,272.9 ,Predicted Electoral votes.

 

harris 265.1 ! Way to much vibe , not enough of the required electoral votes!

 

There’s still hope for you , USA!

🇺🇸 

Edited by riclag
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2 minutes ago, maesariang said:

CNN swing state polls are bad for Harris. They were wrong by 7.5 pts before and only 1 pt ahead. 

Consider that big pollsters learn from their mistakes. If you can show they did get it wrong election after election  then fair enough but to compare it to one election they got wrong - if they did - isn't something that is really useful information in my opinion. 

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3 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

His system is not about debates.

It's not about POLLS at all. 

His success rate is remarkable.

He missed Bush vs. Gore but it's arguable that Gore actually won because the supreme court gave it to Bush.

I was surprised though that his final call will probably be before the debate though but based on what he's said, it will be.

Hint -- His final prediction will be Kamala Harris almost definitely. 

His success rate is not that impressive. Most elections are easy to pick.

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15 hours ago, Jingthing said:

His system is not about debates.

It's not about POLLS at all. 

His success rate is remarkable.

He missed Bush vs. Gore but it's arguable that Gore actually won because the supreme court gave it to Bush.

I was surprised though that his final call will probably be before the debate though but based on what he's said, it will be.

Hint -- His final prediction will be Kamala Harris almost definitely. 

Said it will be shortly after Labor Day final prediction

Trump needs to did deep and come up with an October surprise

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To be fair, its harris/ walz!

Also I hope avoiding interviews backfires ! Swing voters need to know what her policies are since the team  ignores answering questions, while they crisscross America doing rallies and state fairs.

 

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On 9/4/2024 at 8:32 PM, Jingthing said:

Wait for Allan Lichtman's final prediction.

COMING SOON!

 

Maybe this article is premature...not sure.  But here it is....

 

[Presidential historian Allan Lichtman predicts that Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election.]

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/historian-allan-lichtman-predicts-who-will-win-the-2024-election/ar-AA1q3IOZ?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=efaa7ffbdf664935dd114d065c3395fb&ei=9

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17 hours ago, riclag said:

To be fair, its harris/ walz!

Also I hope avoiding interviews backfires ! Swing voters need to know what her policies are since the team  ignores answering questions, while they crisscross America doing rallies and state fairs.

 

You just want her to lose.

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8 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

Maybe this article is premature...not sure.  But here it is....

 

[Presidential historian Allan Lichtman predicts that Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election.]

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/historian-allan-lichtman-predicts-who-will-win-the-2024-election/ar-AA1q3IOZ?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=efaa7ffbdf664935dd114d065c3395fb&ei=9

Yes it happened.

The Oracle has spoken!

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19 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

Maybe this article is premature...not sure.  But here it is....

 

[Presidential historian Allan Lichtman predicts that Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election.]

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/historian-allan-lichtman-predicts-who-will-win-the-2024-election/ar-AA1q3IOZ?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=efaa7ffbdf664935dd114d065c3395fb&ei=9

Why did he give Obama 31% in 2008 then?

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4 minutes ago, maesariang said:

Why did he give Obama 31% in 2008 then?

Where are you getting your information?  From this article, he predicted that Obama and the Dems would prevail in 2008....

 

[The Keys to the White House firmly pre-
dict a Democratic victory in the popular
vote in 2008. It is most improbable that
the course of events will swing the Keys
back in line for the GOP.]

 

https://www.socialstudies.org/system/files/publications/articles/se_720110.pdf

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