Latest carmaker to scale back its EV ambitions amid slowing sales

[RocketDog]

3 minutes ago, Bandersnatch said:

 

“I didn’t buy this toaster and have never even seen one in person, but I chosen to give it a 1 star review as I think toasting under the grill is better”

 

“In July 2024, one in seven vehicles sold globally was fully electric, with electric vehicles (EVs) accounting for 14.9% of total vehicle sales worldwide.”

https://www.edie.net/one-in-seven-new-cars-worldwide-is-now-electric/

 

If you want  more information about EVs, you could do worse than check my discussion:

 https://aseannow.com/topic/1257405-electric-vehicles-in-thailand 

at over 8,000 replies there is lots to get into.

 

I would also recommend a test drive. I might be a bit biased here but I would suggest you try my latest EV the BYD Seal AWD Performance, @JBChiangRai has one as well as do several other regular contributors to EVs in Thailand.

 

OK. I'll buy a bunch of toasters too. In for a penny,in for a pound.

[ignis]

Some maybe waiting for a year

 

The upcoming Corolla will borrow BYD's hybrid powertrain, allowing for a driving range almost 3 times more than that of a conventional ICE unit. As per reports, Toyota is aiming at a driving range of 2,100 km from the upcoming Corolla PHEV. To help achieve this, the car will come powered by a new and highly efficient 1.5-litre turbocharged 4-cylinder petrol engine, paired with BYD's latest hybrid tech.

 

Loads of reports + Videos 

[ExpatOilWorker]

3 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Absolute nonsense.  EV sales are mostly increasing, UK 23% last month, Norway 94% last month. Thailand 15%, USA up 22.9% from Q1.

 

The only country I know with a hiccup is Germany dues to changes in subsidies.

In other words, sales are high in countries with high subsidies and EVs are falling flat on their face and faling when they have to compete on a level playing field with ICE.

[JBChiangRai]

5 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

In other words, sales are high in countries with high subsidies and EVs are falling flat on their face and faling when they have to compete on a level playing field with ICE.

 

No, they are falling flat on their face when there are no sensibly priced Chinese EV's available and people are expected to pay a premium for older tech with legacy badges on the back.

[Furioso]

I hear those Yaris Cross Hybrid's get 80mpg!

[atpeace]

16 hours ago, vinny41 said:

HEV are EV

I provided a link that clearly stated the type  of the vehicles that it included 

sales include HEV, PHEV, FCEV, and BEV

you failing to read the article correctly   is your own problem

This thread isn't limited to just Thailand only

In Bangkok recently there was the

 2nd International NEV Summit 2024

Here GWM Thailand show piechart of NEV market share in Thailand

HEV 51% BEV 43% PHEV 6%

 

Well Toyota doesn't include them in their EV numbers.  Again you know that or are obtuse. 

 

Below is your reply to mine.  You are obviously combining their hybrid sales in their EV sales number.  Now you are just stammering nonsense because that is what you do.  

 

Your reply:

Toyota have been selling EV's from 1997

"In 2023, Toyota Motor Corporation sold approximately 3.68 million electrified vehicles (EVs) worldwide"

 

BTW, you added The (EV) after the electrified vehicles.  Silly yes but it is what you do.  1%  of Toyota cars sold are EVs and this is using their numbers .    Hence the reason I have never seen one on the roads 🙂

 

 

[ExpatOilWorker]

14 minutes ago, atpeace said:

Well Toyota doesn't include them in their EV numbers.  Again you know that or are obtuse. 

 

Below is your reply to mine.  You are obviously combining their hybrid sales in their EV sales number.  Now you are just stammering nonsense because that is what you do.  

 

Your reply:

Toyota have been selling EV's from 1997

"In 2023, Toyota Motor Corporation sold approximately 3.68 million electrified vehicles (EVs) worldwide"

 

BTW, you added The (EV) after the electrified vehicles.  Silly yes but it is what you do.  1%  of Toyota cars sold are EVs and this is using their numbers .    Hence the reason I have never seen one on the roads 🙂

 

 

atpeace is atwar.

[atpeace]

1 hour ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

In other words, sales are high in countries with high subsidies and EVs are falling flat on their face and faling when they have to compete on a level playing field with ICE.

You're a smart guy and realize there are other factors.  Auto sales in Thailand are off substantially this year.  Also to what extent did the EV incentives initiated 2023 have when comparing 2023 to 2024?  I don't know the answer but definitely a factor during the end of 2023.

 

Globally EV sales are growing around 11% but ICE sales are down.  Am I missing something?  Sometimes beliefs get in the way of factual data.  Could be me or possibly you.

 

[atpeace]

18 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

atpeace is atwar.

yep, I probably should drop it.  Love and kisses all around. Vince is still a bore though.  You are entertaining so keep at it...

[vinny41]

52 minutes ago, atpeace said:

Well Toyota doesn't include them in their EV numbers.  Again you know that or are obtuse. 

 

Below is your reply to mine.  You are obviously combining their hybrid sales in their EV sales number.  Now you are just stammering nonsense because that is what you do.  

 

Your reply:

Toyota have been selling EV's from 1997

"In 2023, Toyota Motor Corporation sold approximately 3.68 million electrified vehicles (EVs) worldwide"

 

BTW, you added The (EV) after the electrified vehicles.  Silly yes but it is what you do.  1%  of Toyota cars sold are EVs and this is using their numbers .    Hence the reason I have never seen one on the roads 🙂

 

 

I have never seen a Rolls Royce or Aston Martin in Thailand but I know they both sell cars here

In 2023 Toyota worldwide sold 104,018 BEV

For 2024 up to the end of July Toyota sold  84,376 BEV worldwide

Toyota categorised there electric sales under the heading of Sales of electrified vehicles

which  has seperate subsections for HEV, MHEV,PHEV,FCEV,BEV

Numbers can be found here

https://global.toyota/en/company/profile/production-sales-figures/202407.html

[vinny41]

The Consumer Protection Board joins the program "People's Station" on the topic: Complain to the Consumer Protection Board about buying an electric car that is not as advertised!

 

The discussion was about complaints from EV users complaining about purchasing cars that did not comply with advertisements and sales contracts. The users said that in the past, the car had problems with unstable batteries, not storing electricity, air compressors not working, and ABS brakes not working. The company also announced that charging stations that the company said could be charged for free, but currently, a service fee must be paid and the charging stations are closed, service centers, and broken cabinets. The consumers met with the company to discuss the problems and ask the company to take the cars back.

https://www.ocpb.go.th/news_view.php?nid=15454

 

[atpeace]

3 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

I have never seen a Rolls Royce or Aston Martin in Thailand but I know they both sell cars here

In 2023 Toyota worldwide sold 104,018 BEV

For 2024 up to the end of July Toyota sold  84,376 BEV worldwide

Toyota categorised there electric sales under the heading of Sales of electrified vehicles

which  has seperate subsections for HEV, MHEV,PHEV,FCEV,BEV

Numbers can be found here

https://global.toyota/en/company/profile/production-sales-figures/202407.html

Whatever, this is becoming trite. As I stated before I didn't know that Toyota made and EV.  I also stated I have never seen one on the roads.  Your above data explains why. About a whopping 1% of Toyotas sold are EVs.  1% might seem substantial for you but to me it seems quite tiny.  No big deal and just a disagreement of sorts. Cheers

[ExpatOilWorker]

53 minutes ago, atpeace said:

You're a smart guy and realize there are other factors.  Auto sales in Thailand are off substantially this year.  Also to what extent did the EV incentives initiated 2023 have when comparing 2023 to 2024?  I don't know the answer but definitely a factor during the end of 2023.

 

Globally EV sales are growing around 11% but ICE sales are down.  Am I missing something?  Sometimes beliefs get in the way of factual data.  Could be me or possibly you.

 

Thanks @✌️ , I am moved by your kind words 😊. 

You are not missing anything, EV sales, as your charts indicate, have been and are still growing. The real question is, if it will continue so or are reaching a plateau.

You do raise an important point. We are in the middle of a war, not ur war, nor Ukraine, but the all out EV price war. At the moment EV prices are falling, if not crashing, but how long will it last?

Will subsidies continue or is the Thai government tired of paying the bills.

Is EV3.5 still in effect and will subsidies continue in 2025?

[atpeace]

The subsidies are not an easy solution and hope they go away.  Usually the only beneficiary is the manufacturer that can raise prices because of demand.  The buyers in the end that optimistically took advantage of the incentives get screwed.  Many example of failed subsidies/incentives in the green arena.  Just look at how expensive it is to install solar in California.

 

I digress - not a fan of subsidies. As for EV sales growth.  I don't own an EV but envision a perfect match for my situation.  As more people get solar and battery tech improves, I think by 2030-2040 half of the passenger cars will be EVs.  Trucks, semis, tankers - no idea.  

[ExpatOilWorker]

6 minutes ago, atpeace said:

The subsidies are not an easy solution and hope they go away.  Usually the only beneficiary is the manufacturer that can raise prices because of demand.  The buyers in the end that optimistically took advantage of the incentives get screwed.  Many example of failed subsidies/incentives in the green arena.  Just look at how expensive it is to install solar in California.

 

I digress - not a fan of subsidies. As for EV sales growth.  I don't own an EV but envision a perfect match for my situation.  As more people get solar and battery tech improves, I think by 2030-2040 half of the passenger cars will be EVs.  Trucks, semis, tankers - no idea.  

Thailand's 🇹🇭 30/30 plan/dream is to have 30% EV sales by 2030.

Both Vinny and myself thinks that will never happen. 

As long as the EV price war rages on I think we will see numbers creeping up towards 20%, but the moment reality sets in and the subsidy sweet pot dries up and EV manufacturers run out of price bullets, sales will fall again.

50%, not Chinaman's chance in hell.

[RocketDog]

6 hours ago, ignis said:

Some maybe waiting for a year

 

The upcoming Corolla will borrow BYD's hybrid powertrain, allowing for a driving range almost 3 times more than that of a conventional ICE unit. As per reports, Toyota is aiming at a driving range of 2,100 km from the upcoming Corolla PHEV. To help achieve this, the car will come powered by a new and highly efficient 1.5-litre turbocharged 4-cylinder petrol engine, paired with BYD's latest hybrid tech.

 

Loads of reports + Videos 

Hybrids make sense for most drivers. This is just one of many new hybrids to come.

 

[atpeace]

7 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Thailand's 🇹🇭 30/30 plan/dream is to have 30% EV sales by 2030.

Both Vinny and myself thinks that will never happen. 

As long as the EV price war rages on I think we will see numbers creeping up towards 20%, but the moment reality sets in and the subsidy sweet pot dries up and EV manufacturers run out of price bullets, sales will fall again.

50%, not Chinaman's chance in hell.

On second thought, extremely unlikely. Only 6 years from now.

 

Once there is better infrastructure and if the batteries are proven to last 300,000 kilometers plus which IMO will be the case, the switch will happen very quickly.  Been playing around with Lifepo4 batteries for 5 years now and they are amazing.  The new Lifepo4 batteries put in most MGs after 2022 should last easily 2500 full cycles before state of health dropping below 75 % which equates to 750,000 kilometers.  That battery could then be used for home solar storage for another 10 years.  

 

Not enough data out there that I can say you are wrong but I expect you are most definitely going  to see the error in your judgement in the next 5 years.  I hope so because I intend on purchasing an EV soon. I'm definitely biased 🙂

[vinny41]

36 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Thailand's 🇹🇭 30/30 plan/dream is to have 30% EV sales by 2030.

Both Vinny and myself thinks that will never happen. 

As long as the EV price war rages on I think we will see numbers creeping up towards 20%, but the moment reality sets in and the subsidy sweet pot dries up and EV manufacturers run out of price bullets, sales will fall again.

50%, not Chinaman's chance in hell.

I expect the price war will end this year as I suspect there will be new rules implemented that if you reduce price more than X number of days then you have to show that the parts have also been reduced in line with the vehicle price reduction

At the moment there is an imbalance if you import

A) BEV fully completed ready for sale  brand benefits from B100,000 subsidy under EV 3.5

B) BEV imported in component form for use as replacements parts no  B100,000 subsidy under EV 3.5 and customs duty exemption only for 9 components as listed here 

https://miceoss.tceb.or.th/en/customs-exempt-import-duties-on-electric-vehicle-components-or-electric-powered-vessels-with-batteries-for-9-items/

End result it is cheaper to write off BEV vehicles as cost can exceeded price of new vehicle if battery needs replacing

[atpeace]

6 hours ago, ignis said:

Some maybe waiting for a year

 

The upcoming Corolla will borrow BYD's hybrid powertrain, allowing for a driving range almost 3 times more than that of a conventional ICE unit. As per reports, Toyota is aiming at a driving range of 2,100 km from the upcoming Corolla PHEV. To help achieve this, the car will come powered by a new and highly efficient 1.5-litre turbocharged 4-cylinder petrol engine, paired with BYD's latest hybrid tech.

 

Loads of reports + Videos 

This is amazing if it becomes a reality.  I've read that it only consumes 2.9liters  petrol per 100 kilometers on an empty battery.  It isn't out yet so have my doubts.  1000 baht to fill up its 26 liter tank and  drive 2000 kilometers.  

[motdaeng]

13 minutes ago, RocketDog said:

Hybrids make sense for most drivers. This is just one of many new hybrids to come.

you probably mean phev (plug-in hybrid) make sense ...

 

i see it differently because most do drive around 50-100 km daily, and many can charge overnight at home. when these people are looking to buy a new car, a bev makes a lot of sense, not a phev and certainly not a hybrid.

 

additionally, thailand has a good charging infrastructure, affordable electricity rates, and a wide, attractive selection of different electric vehicles at reasonable prices ...

 

but as always, electric cars aren’t for everyone ...

[atpeace]

20 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

I expect the price war will end this year as I suspect there will be new rules implemented that if you reduce price more than X number of days then you have to show that the parts have also been reduced in line with the vehicle price reduction

At the moment there is an imbalance if you import

A) BEV fully completed ready for sale  brand benefits from B100,000 subsidy under EV 3.5

B) BEV imported in component form for use as replacements parts no  B100,000 subsidy under EV 3.5 and customs duty exemption only for 9 components as listed here 

https://miceoss.tceb.or.th/en/customs-exempt-import-duties-on-electric-vehicle-components-or-electric-powered-vessels-with-batteries-for-9-items/

End result it is cheaper to write off BEV vehicles as cost can exceeded price of new vehicle if battery needs replacing

What is odd to me is how expensive it is to replace batteries. The MG battery can be taken out easily at a shop.  The bad battery cells located easily enough and replaced for about 2000 baht a cell.  Usually 1 cell goes bad is my experience with my lifepo4 (lithium-iron)  batteries.

 

I don't know but something doesn't add up.  Once more batteries start failing in in the next 10 years then shops will open up to do the repairs is my guess and battery repair costs become reasonable.  

 

 I followed a guy on youtube with no battery knowledge attempt  to repair his battery for months which was entertaining.   What was surprising is how the batteries are exactly the same as my Lifepo4 batteries setups at my home.  Nothing too complicated. A battery management system  attached to batteries.  Easy to test each cell to find the bad one(s) or if all good then look at the battery management system.

[ExpatOilWorker]

45 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

I expect the price war will end this year as I suspect there will be new rules implemented that if you reduce price more than X number of days then you have to show that the parts have also been reduced in line with the vehicle price reduction

At the moment there is an imbalance if you import

A) BEV fully completed ready for sale  brand benefits from B100,000 subsidy under EV 3.5

B) BEV imported in component form for use as replacements parts no  B100,000 subsidy under EV 3.5 and customs duty exemption only for 9 components as listed here 

https://miceoss.tceb.or.th/en/customs-exempt-import-duties-on-electric-vehicle-components-or-electric-powered-vessels-with-batteries-for-9-items/

End result it is cheaper to write off BEV vehicles as cost can exceeded price of new vehicle if battery needs replacing

When is EV3.5 due to expire and it that the end of freebies or is there an EV4.0 in the shadows?

[JBChiangRai]

2 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Thailand's 🇹🇭 30/30 plan/dream is to have 30% EV sales by 2030.

Both Vinny and myself thinks that will never happen. 

As long as the EV price war rages on I think we will see numbers creeping up towards 20%, but the moment reality sets in and the subsidy sweet pot dries up and EV manufacturers run out of price bullets, sales will fall again.

50%, not Chinaman's chance in hell.

 

We have gone from 6% to 15% in 7 months, I'm not ruling out 30% in 6 years.

[ExpatOilWorker]

29 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

We have gone from 6% to 15% in 7 months, I'm not ruling out 30% in 6 years.

Odd are stacked against you, but time will tell.

I doubt we will even see 3 months in a row with 20% EV market share.

 

[vinny41]

2 hours ago, atpeace said:

What is odd to me is how expensive it is to replace batteries. The MG battery can be taken out easily at a shop.  The bad battery cells located easily enough and replaced for about 2000 baht a cell.  Usually 1 cell goes bad is my experience with my lifepo4 (lithium-iron)  batteries.

 

I don't know but something doesn't add up.  Once more batteries start failing in in the next 10 years then shops will open up to do the repairs is my guess and battery repair costs become reasonable.  

 

 I followed a guy on youtube with no battery knowledge attempt  to repair his battery for months which was entertaining.   What was surprising is how the batteries are exactly the same as my Lifepo4 batteries setups at my home.  Nothing too complicated. A battery management system  attached to batteries.  Easy to test each cell to find the bad one(s) or if all good then look at the battery management system.

The MG EP and New MG ZS EV models have modular batteries , with 1 battery pack consisting of 6 battery modules. Each module can be replaced. The price per module is 75,000 baht

While the MG 4 Electric car has a cell2pack (CTP) battery , the price will be 525,000 THB (Not include VAT)

https://www.prachachat.net/motoring/news-1229139

With the new Byd Blade 2 batteries coming at the end of this year Byd batteries should 

It is reported that the battery components will be reduced by 40% cost of battery will be reduced by 30% and range extended to plus  1,000km 

https://www.car250.com/byd-blade-ev-2024-09.html

I assume that SAIC(MG) have a similar new battery model waiting in the wings

[vinny41]

2 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

When is EV3.5 due to expire and it that the end of freebies or is there an EV4.0 in the shadows?

EV 3.5 end date is 31st December 2027 assuming that is still has budget allowances for that date

However, Ekniti confirmed that subsidies for imported EVs will reduce gradually to 75,000 baht per vehicle in 2024 and 50,000 baht in 2027. He said this reduction aims to maintain the momentum of Thailand’s EV industry development.

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/policy/40039499

I suspect they mean B75,000 in 2025

[atpeace]

1 minute ago, vinny41 said:

The MG EP and New MG ZS EV models have modular batteries , with 1 battery pack consisting of 6 battery modules. Each module can be replaced. The price per module is 75,000 baht

While the MG 4 Electric car has a cell2pack (CTP) battery , the price will be 525,000 THB (Not include VAT)

https://www.prachachat.net/motoring/news-1229139

With the new Byd Blade 2 batteries coming at the end of this year Byd batteries should 

It is reported that the battery components will be reduced by 40% cost of battery will be reduced by 30% and range extended to plus  1,000km 

https://www.car250.com/byd-blade-ev-2024-09.html

I assume that SAIC(MG) have a similar new battery model waiting in the wings

That is insane pricing. The individual cells are cheap and they are connected in series and then the modules again are connected in series.  It is what it is but that pricing will drop once batteries start to fail.  Can you imagine the battery shops popping up in towns throughout Thailand 10 years from now? You can buy the BYD cell online and I think they are under 3,000 baht. 

[ExpatOilWorker]

11 hours ago, Bandersnatch said:

“In July 2024, one in seven vehicles sold globally was fully electric, with electric vehicles (EVs) accounting for 14.9% of total vehicle sales worldwide.”

https://www.edie.net/one-in-seven-new-cars-worldwide-is-now-electric/

1:7, even when including PHEV is solid proof that the EV fantasy is over.

In 2023 it was almost 1:5, so EV's market share globally is falling 😊 😃 😀 😄. 

[ExpatOilWorker]

15 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

EV 3.5 end date is 31st December 2027 assuming that is still has budget allowances for that date

However, Ekniti confirmed that subsidies for imported EVs will reduce gradually to 75,000 baht per vehicle in 2024 and 50,000 baht in 2027. He said this reduction aims to maintain the momentum of Thailand’s EV industry development.

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/policy/40039499

I suspect they mean B75,000 in 2025

The subsidies are not only for imported EVs, but also for domestic produced EVs, right?

[vinny41]

15 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

1:7, even when including PHEV is solid proof that the EV fantasy is over.

In 2023 it was almost 1:5, so EV's market share globally is falling 😊 😃 😀 😄. 

The 2nd International NEV Summit 2024 was held on 3 September 2024 at the Conrad Ballroom, Conrad Hotel, Bangkok.

They are using the term new energy vehicle (NEV) which applies to all vehicles that have an electric motor including HEV as you can see in the presentation pictures

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/automobile/40041463

I see some countries now using ZEV as an acronym Zero-Emission Vehicles

https://www.phoenix.gov/sustainabilitysite/Documents/Electric_Vehicle_Acronyms_and_Glossary.pdf