The Vanishing Hurricanes: A Quiet Season Baffles Forecasters

[Social Media]

 

In a year where meteorologists predicted a potentially historic hurricane season, the Atlantic Ocean has been unusually quiet, making history for an unexpected reason. For the first time in over half a century, the Atlantic has gone through the late summer without a single cyclone, a time when multiple storms would typically be churning. Phil Klotzbach, a renowned meteorologist, and others in the field had anticipated a flurry of hurricanes, yet as weeks passed without any significant activity, the silence became more unnerving. Even those outside the meteorology world began to ask, “Where are all the hurricanes?”

 

Klotzbach, who leads one of the most respected hurricane season outlooks, found himself considering a midseason update in late August, an acknowledgment that this year’s forecast might be off the mark. He ultimately decided against it, hoping for a new system to emerge over Labor Day weekend. However, the anticipated storm never formed.

 

The Atlantic’s unexpected calm has left meteorologists wrestling with confusion and criticism, as they had confidently predicted an active season. “Everyone was going big,” Klotzbach said, reflecting on the widespread expectations for more than two dozen storms. This season's quietness stands in stark contrast to the dynamic Pacific typhoon season and the record-breaking heat experienced across the Northern Hemisphere, which led to devastating wildfires, floods, and scorching temperatures.

 

Even though meteorologists can identify some factors contributing to this lull, they struggle to understand why these factors have dominated the weather patterns that would typically fuel intense storms. Many of those who warned the public to prepare for a dangerous season now find themselves in the awkward position of almost rooting for storms to avoid losing public trust. Klotzbach, who accurately predicted the devastating impact of Hurricane Beryl in July, initially felt reassured in his forecast, which called for several storms of Beryl's magnitude. But as time passed without any new storms, he was taken by surprise. “It’s definitely taken me by surprise,” he admitted. “I think any meteorologist being honest would say the same.”

 

The ingredients for a busy hurricane season seemed to be present. Ocean temperatures across the Atlantic have been extraordinarily warm for over a year, providing ample fuel for storms. A La Niña climate pattern, which typically produces favorable conditions for Atlantic storms, has been building for months. “This season is looking to be an extraordinary one,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said back in May. But despite these conditions, the past month has been eerily quiet.

 

This unusual calm could hint at future trends. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has suggested that climate change might make hurricanes less frequent, even as it increases the likelihood of those that do form becoming more intense. So far, this year’s atmosphere has been too stable for storm development, with unusual warming observed in the upper layers of the troposphere. Additionally, many potential storms have fizzled out as they drifted from African monsoon clouds into the Atlantic, further north than usual, outside the zone most conducive to storm formation. This shift is something meteorologists have never had to account for before. “It’s kind of hard to predict something in the system that you’ve never seen before,” said Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster.

 

Meteorologists are now grappling with the possibility of a busted forecast, a scenario they all hope to avoid. Seasonal forecasts, which are made months in advance, lack the precision of daily weather predictions. They can assess the likelihood of storms but cannot predict specific anomalies like the unexpected position of the African monsoon. “These are factors that are not fully understood by anyone,” said Jon Porter, chief meteorologist for AccuWeather, which recently downgraded its own hurricane season predictions. 

 

Forecasters like Klotzbach remain cautious yet hopeful. “There’s still 60 percent of the hurricane season left to go,” Rosencrans noted. But as doubts grow, so does public skepticism. If hurricanes fail to materialize, the effect could be lasting, with people potentially disregarding future warnings due to the “cry wolf” effect. Tobias Vorlaufer, a researcher at the Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, emphasized the importance of careful communication to maintain public trust. For Klotzbach, transparency is key. He knows that his dire forecasts have heightened public attention, and with that comes the risk of losing credibility. “That’s not something you want to lose,” he said.

 

Credit: WP 2024-09-010

 

 

 

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[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, Social Media said:

Forecasters like Klotzbach remain cautious yet hopeful. “There’s still 60 percent of the hurricane season left to go,” Rosencrans noted.

How sad. Instead of celebrating that less destruction will occur due to their forecasts being wrong, they want something horrendous to justify their big salaries.

 

So, the computer models got it wrong; happy days for those that didn't lose their homes.

 

Perhaps what is happening in Vietnam will cheer them up.

[thesetat2013]

10 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

How sad. Instead of celebrating that less destruction will occur due to their forecasts being wrong, they want something horrendous to justify their big salaries.

 

So, the computer models got it wrong; happy days for those that didn't lose their homes.

 

Perhaps what is happening in Vietnam will cheer them up.

Well, the forecasters lost face when what they predicted did not happen... Who cares about the loss of property and money caused by the damage they predicted. NOw, they can not be trusted to tell the weather news. Noone will believe them. hmm... 

I wonder if this has anything to do with the global ice melt or the core slowing down a little? 

[Fortean1]

Weather guessers claim more accurate predictions than their results indicate.  I've read about a weather maker who could produce rain.  His name was Irving C. Krick.  Here is his obituary from 1996: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/obituary-irving-krick-1327473.html

He had a very interesting career: https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1996-06-26-mn-18712-story.html

I found this book in a used book store: https://www.amazon.com/Storm-Irving-Krick-weather-bureaucracy/dp/0399206361

Edited September 10 by Fortean1
After midnight here in Thailand so brain fog is heavy.