Word Association (2024)

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Next week, Russia will host a major summit of the BRICS group, gathering around two dozen world leaders in what is set to be the largest international event in Russia since the onset of the Ukraine conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin is positioning this summit as a key moment to demonstrate that Western attempts to isolate Moscow have failed.

 

The summit will take place in Kazan from October 22 to 24, bringing together key global figures such as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also expected to attend. The Kremlin views the gathering as an opportunity to bolster its alliances and present itself as an influential global player in the face of Western sanctions and isolation efforts.

 

The BRICS alliance—comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—has become a cornerstone of Russia’s foreign policy. The Kremlin has been actively pushing for the expansion of the group, with a particular focus on developing a BRICS-led payment system to rival SWIFT, from which Russian banks were disconnected in 2022. The escalating conflict in the Middle East will also feature prominently on the summit’s agenda.

 

Russian officials, including Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, have framed the summit as a victory for Russian diplomacy. Ushakov emphasized the importance of BRICS as a prototype for a "multipolar" world order, one that challenges what he described as Western "hegemony." He noted, "What BRICS is doing is gradually—brick by brick—building a bridge to a more democratic and just world order."

 

The United States, however, has downplayed BRICS’ potential to become a serious geopolitical rival, though it has expressed concerns about Moscow's growing diplomatic influence. Amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia has deepened its ties with several of Washington’s adversaries, including China, Iran, and North Korea.

 

Konstantin Kalachev, a Moscow-based political analyst, noted that by hosting the summit, Putin is sending a clear message that Russia is not isolated. “The Kremlin aims to show that not only is Russia not isolated, it has partners and allies,”

 

Kalachev said. He added that this summit is an opportunity for Russia to showcase an "alternative to Western pressure" and promote the idea of a multipolar world where power is shared across regions rather than dominated by the West.

 

Putin’s international standing has been strained by the International Criminal Court (ICC), which declared him wanted in 2023 for the illegal deportation of children from Ukraine. This led to his absence from the previous BRICS summit in South Africa, a member of the ICC. In contrast, this year’s summit represents a chance for the Kremlin to reassert its diplomatic weight.

 

Putin has consistently argued that the West provoked Russia into launching its military offensive in Ukraine, dismissing claims that the invasion is an imperialistic land grab—even though Russia has seized four Ukrainian regions and declared them part of its territory. The Kremlin insists that global affairs should be governed by international law, not by the rules of individual states like the U.S.

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned of the broader implications if Putin succeeds in his military and geopolitical objectives. “If Putin achieves his crazy goals—geopolitical, military, ideological, and economic—it will create an overwhelming impression among other potential aggressors, particularly in the West, Indo-Pacific, and Africa, that wars of aggression could be beneficial for them as well,” Zelensky told lawmakers earlier this week.

 

Founded in 2009 with four members, BRICS has since expanded to include nations such as South Africa, Egypt, and Iran. Turkey, a NATO member with complex relations with both Moscow and the West, also expressed interest in joining the group in September. 

 

Although Saudi Arabia will be represented at the summit by its foreign minister, the absence of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has sparked speculation about potential tensions between two of the world’s largest energy producers. Kalachev remarked, "It is clear that the Kremlin wanted to see the Crown Prince," but overall, he said, “everything is going rather well for the Kremlin.”

 

Based on a report from Barrons 2024-10-21

 

 

 

[Skeptic7]

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