Early voting - battleground states

[Danderman123]

2 minutes ago, earlinclaifornia said:

 According to a Fox News poll of Pennsylvania, Trump is running 5 percentage points behind Harris among voters ages 65 and over, slipping back from the previous month, when he and Harris were tied with that demographic. It’s a major shift from 2020, when Trump carried 53 percent of the senior vote in Pennsylvania in a losing effort in the state.

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/31/trump-lagging-early-votes-seniors-pennsylvania-00186612

At this point, I don't care about polls. Hillary won all the polls.

 

Voting data is what matters.

 

I'll let @illisdean post polls, he can post them even after Trump loses, if it makes him feel better.

[theblether]

Jon Ralston reporting that the GOP advantage grew in Nevada yesterday. Today is the last day of early voting. 

[theblether]

Bottle crashing time. Dem strategists are now hoping for a 480,000 vote lead in Pennsylvania. Their original target(s) are impossible to hit now. 

 

Their current lead ( 400,000 ) will be destroyed by the GOP on election day. To put it in perspective, the last time the GOP win on election day was that low ( only 400,000 ) was 1968. 

 

In 2020 the GOP election day win in Penn State was 1 million. 

[theblether]

Reports coming in that the Dems have moved resources out of North Carolina ( accepted defeat ) and are trying to shore up Virginia. 

 

GOP is hoping to keep the Dem election day lead under 250,000. I can't work out the maths but the GOP thinks the current Dem lead is 150,000. My maths says 208,000 Dem lead. 

 

If Va votes Trump, Harris is kaput. 

 

 

 

.

Edited 23 hours ago by theblether

[HonestQuietTom]

1 hour ago, theblether said:

Reports coming in that the Dems have moved resources out of North Carolina ( accepted defeat ) and are trying to shore up Virginia. 

 

GOP is hoping to keep the Dem election day lead under 250,000. I can't work out the maths but the GOP thinks the current Dem lead is 150,000. My maths says 208,000 Dem lead. 

 

If Va votes Trump, Harris is kaput. 

 

 

 

.

 

The gender gap is certainly present in early voting....not a promising set of numbers for Trump.

 

 

Not to mention:

 

Even with GOP voters having cast more ballots in battleground states of Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina, Sams argued the Democratic nominee’s campaign is fine with the current numbers and added that they have surpassed surpassed its “internal metric” from two years ago. 

 

“We feel really good about the numbers that we’re seeing in our own early vote push,” Sams said. “We’re exceeding our own internal metrics from 2022, and we’re excited about bringing us home next week.”

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4960816-harris-campaign-senior-advisor-early-voting-numbers/

 

 

 

[HonestQuietTom]

2 hours ago, theblether said:

Bottle crashing time. Dem strategists are now hoping for a 480,000 vote lead in Pennsylvania. Their original target(s) are impossible to hit now. 

 

Their current lead ( 400,000 ) will be destroyed by the GOP on election day. To put it in perspective, the last time the GOP win on election day was that low ( only 400,000 ) was 1968. 

 

In 2020 the GOP election day win in Penn State was 1 million. 

Hmmm,

 

You probably need to expand your reading list to include a few non biased sources.

 

Donald Trump Gets Bad News From Two Early Voting Trends in Pennsylvania

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-bad-news-pennsylvania-early-voting-harris-1978491

 

 

[pattayasan]

17 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

If you think low turnout by men is bad for Trump, look at the Georgia numbers:

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/georgia-results

 

Do their husbands know they're out voting alone like this? There's probably gangs of women roaming the streets egging each other on. Who's at home cooking dinner?

[earlinclaifornia]

18 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

At this point, I don't care about polls. Hillary won all the polls.

 

Voting data is what matters.

 

I'll let @illisdean post polls, he can post them even after Trump loses, if it makes him feel better.

What early voting has told us so far about how the 2024 election will turn out

A ‘silver surge’ for the Dems in Pennsylvania

A reversal in the opposite direction seems to be underway in Pennsylvania, where registered Democrats accounted for about 58 percent of the senior vote, a key constituency for Republicans, who only have about 35 percent over the 65+ crowd so far.

“Our expectation going into the early vote was that it would, in general, skew substantially more Republican than in 2020,” Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the data firm TargetSmart, told Politico of this “silver surge.”

[Danderman123]

38 minutes ago, earlinclaifornia said:

What early voting has told us so far about how the 2024 election will turn out

A ‘silver surge’ for the Dems in Pennsylvania

A reversal in the opposite direction seems to be underway in Pennsylvania, where registered Democrats accounted for about 58 percent of the senior vote, a key constituency for Republicans, who only have about 35 percent over the 65+ crowd so far.

“Our expectation going into the early vote was that it would, in general, skew substantially more Republican than in 2020,” Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the data firm TargetSmart, told Politico of this “silver surge.”

My opinion is that Pennsylvania is almost gone for Trump.

 

Michigan looks bad for Trump, and Trump won't visit Wisconsin again.

 

That's pretty much all Harris needs to win. The remaining swing states are too close to call.

[Danderman123]

5 hours ago, theblether said:

Reports coming in that the Dems have moved resources out of North Carolina ( accepted defeat ) and are trying to shore up Virginia. 

 

GOP is hoping to keep the Dem election day lead under 250,000. I can't work out the maths but the GOP thinks the current Dem lead is 150,000. My maths says 208,000 Dem lead. 

 

If Va votes Trump, Harris is kaput. 

 

 

 

.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/virginia-results

 

Virginia is a lock for Harris.

 

With 50%+ of the electorate having voted already, plus outstanding absentee ballots, with a 56% female participation, Trump would need Election Day turnout to be overwhelmingly heavy and male, which is not going to happen. Big turnout favors the Dems.

 

Edited 18 hours ago by Danderman123

[theblether]

20 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/virginia-results

 

Virginia is a lock for Harris.

 

With 50%+ of the electorate having voted already, plus outstanding absentee ballots, with a 56% female participation, Trump would need Election Day turnout to be overwhelmingly heavy and male, which is not going to happen. Big turnout favors the Dems.

 

 

56% female early voting is not unusual. 

 

But to be clear, I'll be shocked if Trump wins Va

[Danderman123]

Ohio is polling fairly close, and early voting is close, as well. I don't think Ohio will go for Harris, but it will be tight.

 

The Iowa early voting is close, as well.

 

Nobody knows what will happen with turnout on Election Day. Will there be 55% turnout? Higher than that, and it's a win for the Dems.

[NanLaew]

On 10/29/2024 at 8:21 PM, Jingthing said:

You don't know anything about Puerto Ricans and how they have been so disrespected and not seen as the citizens that they are, the history of Puerto Rico, the previous racist attacks by Trump on Puerto Ricans, and the disgusting way Trump mistreated Puerto Ricans after their two big storms, cutting off aid but throwing paper towels at them like zoo animals during his term with the clear reason that he didn't worry about their state in the next election because they're not a state, do you?

It wasn't an off color joke.

It was a PUNCH DOWN RACIST attack at a white nationalist event.

Also that was vetted by the Trump campaign and they approved it!

So when they say now it doesn't reflect them, they are LYING. 

 

What's with the pearl clutch? Tony Hinchcliffe roasts people, that's all he does. Even Jon Stewart thinks he's a hoot.

 

 

[Danderman123]

29 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

 

What's with the pearl clutch? Tony Hinchcliffe roasts people, that's all he does. Even Jon Stewart thinks he's a hoot.

 

 

Obviously, you are not Puerto Rican.

 

There is another topic about Joe Biden making a gaffe, calling Trump supporters garbage. You can post over there and tell the Trumpers they are pearl clutchers.

[earlinclaifornia]

Trump says he is going to protect women whether they ‘like it or not’

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/31/politics/video/trump-women-wisconsin-rally-digvid

 October Surprise?

 

My late wife would never let me use that wording ever.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jingthing]

59 minutes ago, earlinclaifornia said:

Trump says he is going to protect women whether they ‘like it or not’

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/31/politics/video/trump-women-wisconsin-rally-digvid

 October Surprise?

 

My late wife would never let me use that wording ever.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I hope women push back against that misogynist demagogue Mr. Trump.

[Danderman123]

Trump's camp is 'literally freaking out' because the 'election is slipping away': MSNBC

[Danderman123]

7 hours ago, theblether said:

Reports coming in that the Dems have moved resources out of North Carolina ( accepted defeat ) and are trying to shore up Virginia. 

 

Your reports are wrong:

 

Vice President Kamala Harris will return to Charlotte in the final days of the 2024 election cycle.

 

Texts messages received by North Carolina voters and an online event listing show the Democratic presidential hopeful will hold a rally in Charlotte Saturday. Mecklenburg County Democratic Party Chairman Drew Kromer confirmed the event.

 

Former President Clinton to stump for Kamala Harris at Charlotte church service Sunday

[earlinclaifornia]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

 

Your reports are wrong:

 

Vice President Kamala Harris will return to Charlotte in the final days of the 2024 election cycle.

 

Texts messages received by North Carolina voters and an online event listing show the Democratic presidential hopeful will hold a rally in Charlotte Saturday. Mecklenburg County Democratic Party Chairman Drew Kromer confirmed the event.

 

Former President Clinton to stump for Kamala Harris at Charlotte church service Sunday

Predicting now Harris wins North Carolina

[theblether]

 

[theblether]

3 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

 

Your reports are wrong:

 

Vice President Kamala Harris will return to Charlotte in the final days of the 2024 election cycle.

 

Texts messages received by North Carolina voters and an online event listing show the Democratic presidential hopeful will hold a rally in Charlotte Saturday. Mecklenburg County Democratic Party Chairman Drew Kromer confirmed the event.

 

Former President Clinton to stump for Kamala Harris at Charlotte church service Sunday

 

Drivel. Democrats confirm they have removed financial resources from North Carolina because "we booked ads and had some extra money and we didn't know what to do with it" 

 

If you believe that I have a bridge to sell you. Also, same reporter - Republicans out in high numbers, Democrats in lower than expected numbers, independents out at the same rate as Dems. "We don't know how the independents are voting." 

 

 

 

[theblether]

I will say that if Trump loses NC he deserves to lose the election. However I detect a touch of "Texas wishful thinking" where the Dems keep predicting Tx will go blue and in reality they lose by a clear margin. 

 

I'm going: 

 

Trump wins North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. I think that gives him 265 electoral college votes. 

 

So it's down to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin again. And let's be honest - no one predicted a nominal early voting lead of only 400,000 for the Dems in Penn State. That's a shocking reduction from 2020.

[Danderman123]

6 minutes ago, theblether said:

I will say that if Trump loses NC he deserves to lose the election. However I detect a touch of "Texas wishful thinking" where the Dems keep predicting Tx will go blue and in reality they lose by a clear margin. 

 

I'm going: 

 

Trump wins North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. I think that gives him 265 electoral college votes. 

 

So it's down to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin again. And let's be honest - no one predicted a nominal early voting lead of only 400,000 for the Dems in Penn State. That's a shocking reduction from 2020.

Concerning early voting, it's not 2020 any more and there is no COVID. So comparison with 2020 is not useful.

 

Therefore, the current Pennsylvania firewall of 422,000 may be all Harris needs to win, if Election Day doesn't have historical Republican turnout.

 

And I don't know anyone significant predicting that Texas will go Blue in 2024.

Edited 11 hours ago by Danderman123

[theblether]

35 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Concerning early voting, it's not 2020 any more and there is no COVID. So comparison with 2020 is not useful.

 

Therefore, the current Pennsylvania firewall of 422,000 may be all Harris needs to win, if Election Day doesn't have historical Republican turnout.

 

And I don't know anyone significant predicting that Texas will go Blue in 2024.

 

Not this year as they have learned to quit with that nonsense. Nearly as nonsensical as thinking Ohio will go blue this year. 

 

I know it's not 2020. No Dem strategists hoped for a mere 420,000 early vote lead at this election. Especially when the GOP won election day by a million votes in Penn State DURING COVID YEAR. 

 

Anyway we'll find out soon enough. 

[theblether]

Nevada early voting has closed. 

[Danderman123]

7 minutes ago, theblether said:

 

Not this year as they have learned to quit with that nonsense. Nearly as nonsensical as thinking Ohio will go blue this year. 

 

I know it's not 2020. No Dem strategists hoped for a mere 420,000 early vote lead at this election. Especially when the GOP won election day by a million votes in Penn State DURING COVID YEAR. 

 

Anyway we'll find out soon enough. 

You're making my point for me.

 

Dems avoided Election Day in 2020 because of COVID. There is no COVID this year, so Dems will show up on Election Day.

[Danderman123]

6 minutes ago, theblether said:

Nevada early voting has closed. 

Except for mail in ballots, which will be accepted for a few more days.

[theblether]

Nevada has closed with 1,085,000 early votes. 

 

Mail in votes will still be collected. 

 

GOP 39%

Dems 34% 

 

Jon Ralston reckons it will take a landslide of late votes from Clark County to overturn the GOP lead. Looks like Nevada has gone for Trump, and Arizona - we'll see. 

 

 

 

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, theblether said:

Nevada has closed with 1,085,000 early votes. 

 

Mail in votes will still be collected. 

 

GOP 39%

Dems 34% 

 

Jon Ralston reckons it will take a landslide of late votes from Clark County to overturn the GOP lead. Looks like Nevada has gone for Trump, and Arizona - we'll see. 

 

 

 

Nevada for Harris. Yes AZ for Trump.

Lots of those GOP votes are GOP women for Harris.

You'll see. 

[Jingthing]

8 hours ago, theblether said:

 

Not this year as they have learned to quit with that nonsense. Nearly as nonsensical as thinking Ohio will go blue this year. 

 

I know it's not 2020. No Dem strategists hoped for a mere 420,000 early vote lead at this election. Especially when the GOP won election day by a million votes in Penn State DURING COVID YEAR. 

 

Anyway we'll find out soon enough. 

Nobody thinks Ohio will be blue, dude.