In a surprising twist just days before Election Day, a new poll from the Des Moines Register/Mediacom shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in Iowa, a state where Trump has won handily in previous elections. According to the poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., Harris leads Trump by 47% to 44% among likely voters. This unexpected result has shocked political observers and defied predictions, as analysts previously did not foresee a win for the Democratic candidate in Iowa.

 

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” commented J. Ann Selzer, the president of Selzer & Co., the firm that conducted the poll. Known for its accurate and respected polling methods, Selzer & Co.’s findings have historically carried weight in political circles, making the result all the more noteworthy. Despite the close margin, with Harris's advantage falling within the poll's 3.4 percentage point margin of error, the data signals a significant 7-point shift in voter support toward Harris since September.

 

Neither Harris nor Trump has recently campaigned in Iowa, a state where Trump secured strong victories in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. This absence of direct campaigning, combined with Iowa’s historical lean toward Trump, made the poll’s outcome even more surprising to analysts. Polling expert Selzer noted the shift, remarking, “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”

 

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll surveyed 808 likely voters from Monday through Thursday, and the results highlighted a few critical demographic insights. According to Selzer, support for Harris is notably strong among women, particularly older and politically independent female voters. “Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” she explained. This trend suggests that the gender and age divide is playing an influential role in shifting the political landscape in Harris’s favor.

 

The poll also noted that 3% of respondents indicated support for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who ended his campaign to back Trump but remains on Iowa's ballot. Kennedy’s decision to endorse Trump did not appear to sway significant support away from Harris, though his name still holds relevance in the polling results. This number, while small, could still play a role in a tight race like this one.

 

When comparing these latest results to previous polling, the change in Iowa’s political sentiment becomes even more striking. In September, Trump held a 4-point lead over Harris, and earlier in the summer, he was up by 18 percentage points over the then-presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden. Trump secured an 8-point win in Iowa in the 2020 election and a 9-point victory in 2016, marking Iowa as a reliably red state in recent years.

 

However, the Trump campaign has cast doubt on the new poll’s validity. In a memo issued Saturday night, they labeled the Des Moines Register poll an “outlier.” The memo pointed to an Emerson College poll released the same day, which presented a different picture, showing Trump ahead of Harris by a margin of 53% to 43%. “Des Moines Register is a clear outlier poll,” the Trump campaign memo stated. “Emerson College, released today, far more closely reflects the state of the actual Iowa electorate and does so with far more transparency in their methodology.”

 

As Election Day approaches, this surprising Iowa poll adds an element of unpredictability to the race. While it remains to be seen if Harris’s lead in this survey will translate to actual votes, the findings illustrate a potential shift in the state’s political dynamics. Regardless of the outcome, Iowa's electorate appears more divided than in recent elections, making it a crucial state to watch in the days leading up to November 3rd.

 

Based on a report by CNBC 2024-11-04

 

 

 

This is a stunning development in my humble opinion.iowa is deeply red farming country this is a big flashing sign for trump.I think he know he’s toast,after all he has a track record now and it ain’t good!flush the trump enough!

The game has changed !

11 hours ago, Tug said:

This is a stunning development in my humble opinion.iowa is deeply red farming country this is a big flashing sign for trump.I think he know he’s toast,after all he has a track record now and it ain’t good!flush the trump enough!

I hate to tell you @Tug. But the headlines here is a lie. Currently NBC poll shows them tied nationally at 49% each.

Little separates Harris and Trump in final NBC News poll

The candidates are tied at 49% in the head to head national ballot test as a close, uncertain race finishes. No candidate earned majority support in over a year of NBC News polling.https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/final-nbc-news-poll-harris-trump-race-neck-neck-significant-gender-gap-rcna178361

But you can claim your victory now believing any poll you want. It does not matter what the polls say. You will believe anything if it conforms to what you want it to. 

3 minutes ago, thesetat2013 said:

I hate to tell you @Tug. But the headlines here is a lie. Currently NBC poll shows them tied nationally at 49% each.

Little separates Harris and Trump in final NBC News poll

The candidates are tied at 49% in the head to head national ballot test as a close, uncertain race finishes. No candidate earned majority support in over a year of NBC News polling.https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/final-nbc-news-poll-harris-trump-race-neck-neck-significant-gender-gap-rcna178361

But you can claim your victory now believing any poll you want. It does not matter what the polls say. You will believe anything if it conforms to what you want it to. 

 

Believing any poll you want is what you have just done,. can't make this stuff up.

Harris has cooked her own goose with her support of Genocide. she's complicit in the deaths of thousands of children along with her administration.  she will most likely loose Michigan.  Americas economy is built around the war machine. 

1 minute ago, malibukid said:

Harris has cooked her own goose with her support of Genocide. she's complicit in the deaths of thousands of children along with her administration.  she will most likely loose Michigan.  Americas economy is built around the war machine. 

 

They will vote for the other guy who supports genocide instead?

Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in just one swing state, according to the final Siena College/New York Times poll before the election.

The result, released on Sunday, shows Harris leading in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia. The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump leads in Arizona.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-swing-states-final-nyt-siena-poll-election-1979254

14 minutes ago, pattayasan said:

 

Believing any poll you want is what you have just done,. can't make this stuff up.

I do not believe any poll.. They never accurately tell you the truth. But you know NBC is a Dem supported network. So, if I had any thought about what they show. i know already they lean to Harris automatically. Another point is that several other Dem controlled news outlets are also saying the same thing. @Tug though gets his pants into a fancy if he ever sees good results with Harris. Which was my reason for posting that. 

The number of voters per candidate is not as important as the number of electors who get sent to Washington DC. Buy them and you win. 

This is fishy. I don't think there is anyway Kamala takes Iowa. It's a bit like watching a football game and you go away for 30 seconds and the score changes by three touchdowns. Highly unlikely.

 

Who are they polling? Who exactly are they calling every week? FWIW I lived in Iowa before moving to WV. It was quickly becoming more red and it is the state that put Kamala to sleep last time she showed up.

 

People are saying Trump might take NY or NJ which is equally absurd. More importantly is Iowa has a 1% chance of actually changing the election anyway. But by all means dems can stay home they are winning in Iowa.

The polls don't matter, and you will forget them all in 48 hours.

 

Oh, wait! Here's a poll I like.

In the NY Times today it says, just as the polls were wrong in 2016 because people were embarrassed to admit they would be voting for Mr. Trump, on-the-ground Harris folks in PA have been told not to go to any house with a Trump poster out front as to not cause a problem for someone in the house who actually and secretly intends to vote for Ms. Harris.

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The polls don't matter, and you will forget them all in 48 hours.

 

Oh, wait! Here's a poll I like.

We already know this won't be settled in 48 hours.

The shock must be because this is America 🤔

16 minutes ago, Cryingdick said:

This is fishy. I don't think there is anyway Kamala takes Iowa. It's a bit like watching a football game and you go away for 30 seconds and the score changes by three touchdowns. Highly unlikely.

 

Who are they polling? Who exactly are they calling every week? FWIW I lived in Iowa before moving to WV. It was quickly becoming more red and it is the state that put Kamala to sleep last time she showed up.

 

People are saying Trump might take NY or NJ which is equally absurd. More importantly is Iowa has a 1% chance of actually changing the election anyway. But by all means dems can stay home they are winning in Iowa.

The difference is that trump has a track record more and more folks are getting their heads out of the fake news Fox especially after the debate + what trump has done to women….they ain’t happy and they vote.thats not even getting into the threat to our healthcare system via looney Kennedy,the outright in your face racism the looney tariffs plans……also many farmer’s remember trump destroying their Chinese market for his trade war he lost……naa he’s toast 

3 minutes ago, Tug said:

The difference is that trump has a track record more and more folks are getting their heads out of the fake news Fox especially after the debate + what trump has done to women….they ain’t happy and they vote.thats not even getting into the threat to our healthcare system via looney Kennedy,the outright in your face racism the looney tariffs plans……also many farmer’s remember trump destroying their Chinese market for his trade war he lost……naa he’s toast 

Iowa has been hit heavily by illegal aliens. It is straight up I35 from Texas. It has traditionally been wlecoming of migrant workers for the beet harvest every year. However the hospitality for those new comers that are unwelcome is running out.

18 minutes ago, Cryingdick said:

We already know this won't be settled in 48 hours.

You are probably right, if the incessant whinging about 2020 by Tru p and his supporters, both foreign and domestic, is anything to go by.

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You are probably right, if the incessant whinging about 2020 by Tru p and his supporters, both foreign and domestic, is anything to go by.

Yes because the dems won't be the same if it is close. I can see both sides you are so blinded to anything but what you wish to be.

6 minutes ago, Cryingdick said:

Yes because the dems won't be the same if it is close. I can see both sides you are so blinded to anything but what you wish to be.

Projecting much?

8 minutes ago, Cryingdick said:

Yes because the dems won't be the same if it is close. I can see both sides you are so blinded to anything but what you wish to be.

You’ve given up on a Trump landslide then.

Just now, Chomper Higgot said:

You’ve given up on a Trump landslide then.

I have never said that would be the case. However if the polls are off it favors Trump not Kamala. You realize I am not voting for  Trump right? 

I wish they would stop all this,  do they honestly believe people will change the way they vote because of these reports ?   There is only one poll which matters, lets just wait and see .   

3 minutes ago, Bday Prang said:

I wish they would stop all this,  do they honestly believe people will change the way they vote because of these reports ?   There is only one poll which matters, lets just wait and see .   

They make money off of polling. People suck it up. It works. The population of Iowa has apparently changed their mind by over 10 points in several days. Makes sense to me.

Same biased media creating these 'fake news' polls

 

Trump is winning BIG

 

2 hours ago, malibukid said:

Harris has cooked her own goose with her support of Genocide

 

What genocide is she supporting  ?

 

 

40 minutes ago, Cryingdick said:

We already know this won't be settled in 48 hours.

 

So the polls are right then?

1 minute ago, pattayasan said:

 

So the polls are right then?

Holy cow you people are incessant. If it is close it will go on for weeks. I think any surprise that ends it will for Trump. Nobody knows.

This poll suggesting there was that big of a shift in less than week is possible but it is also possible somebody could break Gretzky's fastest hat trick which took under 30 seconds. It isn't likely especially in a place like Iowa which is so stable.

Edited November 4, 20241 yr by Cryingdick

I'm happy to see this, but then again, it's only Iowa.

I've concluded that no matter who wins, the USA, my home country, is in great peril.

If Trump wins, he'll try to implement at least some of the notorious Project 2025 agenda. That will begin to destroy the USA from within.

If Harris wins, Trump supporters won't accept it and will take to the streets in a violent uprising. That will begin to destroy the USA from without.

Either way, we (the USA) are, IMO, in for some very troubling times... 

52 minutes ago, WDSmart said:

I'm happy to see this, but then again, it's only Iowa.

I've concluded that no matter who wins, the USA, my home country, is in great peril.

If Trump wins, he'll try to implement at least some of the notorious Project 2025 agenda. That will begin to destroy the USA from within.

If Harris wins, Trump supporters won't accept it and will take to the streets in a violent uprising. That will begin to destroy the USA from without.

Either way, we (the USA) are, IMO, in for some very troubling times... 

I was rather shocked about the Iowa poll, even though it's a tiny state.  It could portend the momentum going into the election.  States that Trump figures are a lock may not be anymore.  Think Texas, Florida...etc.  As for your comment that "Trump supporters won't accept it and will take to the streets in a violent uprising".....let them try.  More lawless right wing nutters in prison is a good thing.