For the first time in its history, Reform UK has emerged ahead of the Labour Party in a YouGov voting intention poll. The poll, released on Monday, marks a significant shift in the British political landscape as Nigel Farage’s party gains ground.  

Reform have topped a Sky News/YouGov poll for the first time 👇

— Sky News (@SkyNews) February 3, 2025

 

According to the survey, if a general election were held tomorrow, 25 per cent of British voters would back Reform UK, while 24 per cent would choose Labour. The Conservative Party, which has historically dominated British politics, would garner 21 per cent of the vote. Conducted by YouGov for The Times, the poll suggests that while Reform’s one-point lead over Labour falls within the margin of error, it still signals a notable political development.  

Britain wants Reform. pic.twitter.com/1WJb8LFEFV

— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) February 3, 2025

 

The poll, conducted between February 2 and 3 among 2,465 respondents, represents Reform UK’s joint-highest polling result to date. Compared to the previous YouGov poll conducted on January 26-27, Reform has gained two percentage points, reaching 25 per cent, while Labour has dropped by three points. The Liberal Democrats and the Green Party remain unchanged, standing at 14 per cent and nine per cent, respectively.  

 

Nigel Farage celebrated the poll results by posting on X (formerly Twitter), declaring: “Britain wants Reform.” The data further indicates that Labour is struggling to retain its voter base, as only 60 per cent of those who supported the party in July would do so again. Meanwhile, one in four Conservative voters now say they would switch their support to Reform UK.  

 

Another striking revelation from the poll is that approximately 43 per cent of Conservative voters are in favour of a potential merger between the Tories and Reform UK. Additionally, men appear to be the strongest supporters of Reform UK, with 29 per cent of male voters indicating they would back the party in an election.  

 

A separate poll released on Sunday suggested that Reform UK is positioned to unseat more Labour MPs than Conservative ones if an election were held today. Just six months after establishing a presence in Parliament with five MPs, Reform UK is projected to secure 76 seats, with 60 of them currently held by Labour.  

 

Commenting on these projections, Farage emphasized the party’s growing influence, stating: “Reform UK is emerging as a major political force in Britain. The idea that Reform hurts the Conservatives more than Labour is plainly nonsense. As our polling graphically shows, the vast majority of seats Reform would win if there was an election today are from Labour, as are most of the seats they would take on a swing of 3 per cent or less.”  

 

The poll also sheds light on the shifting ideological composition of Reform UK’s supporters. While strong anti-immigration sentiments were a key factor among those who voted for the party in the 2024 general election, newer supporters hold a more diverse range of views. Farage acknowledged this shift, noting: “This includes a sizeable group of voters who are actually quite positive towards the benefits of immigration and multiculturalism but increasingly feel the main parties have failed and it is time for something new.”  

 

Based on a report by The Independent 2025-02-04

 

 

 

 

It's much like the early 1980s (pre-Falklands) when Thatcher was the most unpopular PM in history and the newly formed SDP were leading all the parties in the polls!  Many felt Labour should merge with the SDP, and if they had, history might have been different.  Will the Tories merge with Reform before the next election?  Will Starmer get into a war and get a 'war-bounce' like Thatcher did?

 

Interesting times!

Great to see the UK following America's lead. Starmer (Biden) out after a single term, Farage (Trump) in.