Trump Is Already Slowing Global Trade as Companies Pause Orders

[rough diamond]

6 hours ago, jas007 said:

China's financial markets are closed to the rest of the world, unless, or course, it suits them otherwise.

And Trump has just opened them up with open arms to the rest of the world!

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, rough diamond said:

And Trump has just opened them up with open arms to the rest of the world!

In what can be only termed supreme irony,  American beef exports to China are now history. Trump railed against Australia for not buying US beef for biosecurity reasons.

 

So who is China turning to for beef that is BSE-free? Abattoirs all over Australia are ramping up production.

 

The Law of Unintended Consequences.

[rough diamond]

22 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

The Law of Unintended Consequences.

Please re-read your post and see if it makes any sense to you again as you have posted a number of contradictory/meaningless statements/comments in there!

[Lacessit]

2 hours ago, rough diamond said:

Please re-read your post and see if it makes any sense to you again as you have posted a number of contradictory/meaningless statements/comments in there!

Please explain what you find contradictory/ meaningless statements.

 

Perhaps try again in the morning, when your brain is not fogged by alcohol.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 4/12/2025 at 7:54 PM, jas007 said:

To me, that sounds like a dream, but that's the thinking.  What will it matter who owns the robots, if goods can be produced so cheaply that people will have everything they want?   

Think again, if one has no job and is living off the ridiculous "living wage" how can people buy anything but the basics? So much for prosperity- you think the rich are going to give stuff away?

 

Far more likely, the rich will have a factory or three that produces everything they want by 3D printing, and the rest of humanity can live on scraps.

Food- they'll have robot run hydroponic green houses for veges and the technology already exists to grow meat in a lab.

 

The propaganda is to keep the sheeple quiet while their world is being destroyed, slowly, so not to alarm them, as the sheeple are still needed, for now.

 

You want proof- look at the vast slum cities in poor countries, while their lords and masters live like kings.

You think it'll never happen in a western country- LOL. Did the rich support the unemployed masses during the depression, other than a soup kitchen or suchlike?

[thaibeachlovers]

On 4/13/2025 at 2:01 AM, jas007 said:

You have to find the stuff.

??????? They know where it is. It's just too polluting to be accepted in rich countries, which is why it's produced in poor countries where they don't care about the citizens health.

[placeholder]

Just now, thaibeachlovers said:

??????? They know where it is. It's just too polluting to be accepted in rich countries, which is why it's produced in poor countries where they don't care about the citizens health.

Like Australia?

[thaibeachlovers]

Trump Is Already Slowing Global Trade as Companies Pause Orders

 

Good. Globalism is IMO a vile system that benefits only the rich. Time for it to be consigned to the garbage bin of history.

Return real jobs and decent wages to every country.

[jas007]

5 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Think again, if one has no job and is living off the ridiculous "living wage" how can people buy anything but the basics? So much for prosperity- you think the rich are going to give stuff away?

 

Far more likely, the rich will have a factory or three that produces everything they want by 3D printing, and the rest of humanity can live on scraps.

Food- they'll have robot run hydroponic green houses for veges and the technology already exists to grow meat in a lab.

 

The propaganda is to keep the sheeple quiet while their world is being destroyed, slowly, so not to alarm them, as the sheeple are still needed, for now.

 

You want proof- look at the vast slum cities in poor countries, while their lords and masters live like kings.

You think it'll never happen in a western country- LOL. Did the rich support the unemployed masses during the depression, other than a soup kitchen or suchlike?

I don't disagree with you.  The vision of a world of abundance where three's more than enough for everyone sounds like a fantasy.  My only point was that that's what some of the AI people seem to think will result when robots do all the work in an environment that's directed by AI.  There are a number of practical problems standing in the way, I think.  

 

First, there's the energy question. Giant AI complexes will require enormous amounts of electricity.  That capacity currently doesn't exist.  They want to perhaps run it all with nuclear energy.  Perhaps turn on some of the idled nuclear power plants or build new ones.  Can they manage that?

 

Second, I wonder about an overpopulation problem.  If humans no longer have to work, might they not end up creating too many new babies?  How will they feed all those people?   Or will some new technology exist that will be able to create food out of thin air? 

 

In short, it sounds like a fantasy to me, but I have an open mind. 

[jas007]

21 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Quite so.

 

A Swiss guy once told me the currency is best situated to weather financial crises. While he might have been somewhat biased, the latest trend in the franc vs the dollar bears out his observation.

One more thing, and before I forget: 

 

Whoever your friend is and whatever currency he wants to change to, be sure to ask him how and where the transaction was accomplished. And if your friend looks into the facts, he'll find that almost 90% of the world's international currency transactions use the US dollar as a "delivery vehicle."  Removing the US dollar from the process would be next to impossible in today's world.   Is it possible to replace the US Dollar?  Sure.  But the process would take decades.  

[thaibeachlovers]

14 minutes ago, jas007 said:

I don't disagree with you.  The vision of a world of abundance where three's more than enough for everyone sounds like a fantasy.  My only point was that that's what some of the AI people seem to think will result when robots do all the work in an environment that's directed by AI.  There are a number of practical problems standing in the way, I think.  

 

First, there's the energy question. Giant AI complexes will require enormous amounts of electricity.  That capacity currently doesn't exist.  They want to perhaps run it all with nuclear energy.  Perhaps turn on some of the idled nuclear power plants or build new ones.  Can they manage that?

 

Second, I wonder about an overpopulation problem.  If humans no longer have to work, might they not end up creating too many new babies?  How will they feed all those people?   Or will some new technology exist that will be able to create food out of thin air? 

 

In short, it sounds like a fantasy to me, but I have an open mind. 

In short, it sounds like a fantasy to me,

 

You nailed it. It's not in the nature of the rich to give stuff away- which is why they are rich.

 

Re overpopulation, likely contraceptives will be added to the muck the soup kitchens are handing out.

 

IMO.

[spidermike007]

Trump spectacular lack of understanding of globalization and the inherent manufacturing ecosystems is a stunning thing to witness. He very well could blow this entire thing up with his stupidity and arrogance.

 

China has a winning hand in these negotiations and he's such a terrible poker player he doesn't even get the fact that he's holding threes and fours.

 

I'm really hesitant to call him a dunce, because I really don't want to insult the dunces of the world. Intellectually challenged? One sandwich short of a picnic? 

 

Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity. 

 

Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe. 

[thaibeachlovers]

23 minutes ago, jas007 said:

How will they feed all those people?

No problem. They say that insects are nutritious. Not very tasty, but enough to sustain life. Seaweed can be grown in vast amounts and will fill the vegetable side of the food chain.

Yummy.

[jas007]

5 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Trump spectacular lack of understanding of globalization and the inherent manufacturing ecosystems is a stunning thing to witness. He very well could blow this entire thing up with his stupidity and arrogance.

 

China has a winning hand in these negotiations and he's such a terrible poker player he doesn't even get the fact that he's holding threes and fours.

 

I'm really hesitant to call him a dunce, because I really don't want to insult the dunces of the world. Intellectually challenged? One sandwich short of a picnic? 

 

Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity. 

 

Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe. 

I think the jury is still out on this. China is in bad shape, despite what the propaganda machine wants everyone to believe.  Moreover, China does not control the world's reserve currency our the international financial system and is in no position to do so anytime soon.  On the other hand, the Fed has Trump's back and an infinite supply of money with which to "buy it all."  They can keep buying bonds until they want to stop.

 

So, what's the catch?  The bond market itself. The possibility of a "credit freeze."  Maybe there's a point at which the Fed's purchase of bonds would be counterproductive.  I'm sure there is. At the current dollar level, to buy all the outstanding US bonds would cost over 40 Trillion dollars.  But that price would go up as the dollar collapses. 

 

The question then becomes who will blink first. China, or the USA?  My guess: China.  Not because the international supply chains cannot be easily untangled, but because China is already in veery deep trouble and might not be able to outlast the US Fed.  Its currency is already collapsing and is at its lowest level in more than 20 years.  

 

Time will tell, but as I've said before, if China starts a war, all bets are off. 

[thaibeachlovers]

13 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Time will tell, but as I've said before, if China starts a war, all bets are off. 

I agree with that part.

If that happens, given that NZ doesn't make much any more ( all imported from China ), and we can't even refine our own oil, I guess screwed would be putting it mildly. In that event I'll join the mass exodus to Australia.

[placeholder]

59 minutes ago, jas007 said:

I think the jury is still out on this. China is in bad shape, despite what the propaganda machine wants everyone to believe.  Moreover, China does not control the world's reserve currency our the international financial system and is in no position to do so anytime soon.  On the other hand, the Fed has Trump's back and an infinite supply of money with which to "buy it all."  They can keep buying bonds until they want to stop.

 

So, what's the catch?  The bond market itself. The possibility of a "credit freeze."  Maybe there's a point at which the Fed's purchase of bonds would be counterproductive.  I'm sure there is. At the current dollar level, to buy all the outstanding US bonds would cost over 40 Trillion dollars.  But that price would go up as the dollar collapses. 

 

The question then becomes who will blink first. China, or the USA?  My guess: China.  Not because the international supply chains cannot be easily untangled, but because China is already in veery deep trouble and might not be able to outlast the US Fed.  Its currency is already collapsing and is at its lowest level in more than 20 years.  

 

Time will tell, but as I've said before, if China starts a war, all bets are off. 

Funny. You're the party who has been claiming that the US is doomed unless Trump succeeds in tackling the debt issue during this term. So sometimes destruction of the US economy is imminent  and sometimes is isn't?

As for the bond market. The last time the US tried purchasing bonds, quantitative easing, what was the interest rate on those bonds?

https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, jas007 said:

I think the jury is still out on this. China is in bad shape, despite what the propaganda machine wants everyone to believe.  Moreover, China does not control the world's reserve currency our the international financial system and is in no position to do so anytime soon.  On the other hand, the Fed has Trump's back and an infinite supply of money with which to "buy it all."  They can keep buying bonds until they want to stop.

 

So, what's the catch?  The bond market itself. The possibility of a "credit freeze."  Maybe there's a point at which the Fed's purchase of bonds would be counterproductive.  I'm sure there is. At the current dollar level, to buy all the outstanding US bonds would cost over 40 Trillion dollars.  But that price would go up as the dollar collapses. 

 

The question then becomes who will blink first. China, or the USA?  My guess: China.  Not because the international supply chains cannot be easily untangled, but because China is already in veery deep trouble and might not be able to outlast the US Fed.  Its currency is already collapsing and is at its lowest level in more than 20 years.  

 

Time will tell, but as I've said before, if China starts a war, all bets are off. 

I agree China's in deep trouble, but Trump's policies are deflating the dollar, deflating its attractiveness, and decreasing interest in US bonds. That could end up being the goons Achilles heel. 

[jas007]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

Funny. You're the party who has been claiming that the US is doomed unless Trump succeeds in tackling the debt issue during this term. So sometimes destruction of the US economy is imminent  and sometimes is isn't?

As for the bond market. The last time the US tried purchasing bonds, quantitative easing, what was the interest rate on those bonds?

https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart

I assume you mean the official QE implemented during COVID?  I'm not sure where your chart ends, but as you can see, typically, QE lowers interest rates and increases bond prices. Of course, we won't get into the fact that the Fed has been supporting the bond market for years, in one way or another. The anomaly is the result of the massive QE that occurred during the last QE, as much of that money went into the economy and was not contained within the banking system. And for that reason, the Fed saw inflation, was worried about inflation, and began playing games with the short end of the yield curve until they began QT, again, to drain liquidity from the system and fight what they saw as an inflationary threat.  There are other reasons why the bond market reacted this way, but that's beyond the scope here. 

 

As for Trump and the US debt issue?  I think everyone is aware of the fact that the debt ceiling is probably not as issue for a number of months, and may well be increased by congress. Everyone should also know that Trump wants this leeway for "maneuvering room" as the supposed income from the tariffs kicks in. 

 

Is the US debt a major problem?  Absolutely.  But the bigger problem is what happens if Trump can't find a solution to the ongoing problem of deficit spending. It's unsustainable. Everyone should also know that.  

 

The overriding issue is to save the USA.  Will Trump succeed?  Let's hope.  People hoping for a different outcome have no idea what might hit them if that happens. 

[placeholder]

17 hours ago, jas007 said:

I assume you mean the official QE implemented during COVID?  I'm not sure where your chart ends, but as you can see, typically, QE lowers interest rates and increases bond prices. Of course, we won't get into the fact that the Fed has been supporting the bond market for years, in one way or another. The anomaly is the result of the massive QE that occurred during the last QE, as much of that money went into the economy and was not contained within the banking system. And for that reason, the Fed saw inflation, was worried about inflation, and began playing games with the short end of the yield curve until they began QT, again, to drain liquidity from the system and fight what they saw as an inflationary threat.  There are other reasons why the bond market reacted this way, but that's beyond the scope here. 

 

As for Trump and the US debt issue?  I think everyone is aware of the fact that the debt ceiling is probably not as issue for a number of months, and may well be increased by congress. Everyone should also know that Trump wants this leeway for "maneuvering room" as the supposed income from the tariffs kicks in. 

 

Is the US debt a major problem?  Absolutely.  But the bigger problem is what happens if Trump can't find a solution to the ongoing problem of deficit spending. It's unsustainable. Everyone should also know that.  

 

The overriding issue is to save the USA.  Will Trump succeed?  Let's hope.  People hoping for a different outcome have no idea what might hit them if that happens. 

The last time the Feds tried QE interest rates were much lower. And interest rates stayed low durig QE despite those purchases.

Right now what they're doing is trying to find a way to raise revenues to pay for Trump's massive tax cut. If Trump and the Republicans were serious about fighting deficits they wouldn't be proposing a tax bill that will cost over 4 trillion dollars.

[frank83628]

On 4/12/2025 at 5:54 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Ever heard of legal immigration? Duh. 

But but but Trump

[placeholder]

On 4/12/2025 at 5:54 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Ever heard of legal immigration? Duh. 

Because the Trump administration is making it easier? Of course Trump has pronounced himself in favor of increasing the number of H1B visas. Which businesses have used to drive down wages for America workers. Let's see if the Trump administration proposes minimum restrictions on wage levels so that businesses  will no longer  use those visas  undercut what American workers could earn in those professions.  I haven't seen any evidence yet of that being proposed.

 

[jas007]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

The last time the Feds tried QE interest rates were much lower. And interest rates stayed low durig QE despite those purchases.

Right now what they're doing is trying to find a way to raise revenues to pay for Trump's massive tax cut. If Trump and the Republicans were serious about fighting deficits they wouldn't be proposing a tax bill that will cost over 4 trillion dollars.

I think you need to look at your chart again. That's not exactly what happened.  Initially, interest rates remained low during the initial phase of that particular QE, as the Fed purchased bonds and tweaked the low end of the yield curve. In addition, they promised to maintain lower rates. But in the early part of 2022, inflation started to be a problem and they changed course.  

 

Today, interest rates are higher and they have some room to lower rates, but because of a weakening US dollar, that may be problematic for them. More and more dollars will be required to purchase bonds, and the increasing federal debt will further erode investor confidence. In other words, the US is in an inflationary environment. There's a tipping point when lowering rates  it's no longer the smart thing to do.  It's always a fluid situation, and the macroeconomic climate is now more important than ever..  In terms of Central Bank fiat currencies, it's a race to the bottom. 

 

Don't forget, this all occurs as Trump is trying to force China's hand. It's a matter of who blinks first, and once the China problem is solved for Trump, then the dollar dominance will reassert itself.

[placeholder]

17 minutes ago, jas007 said:

I think you need to look at your chart again. That's not exactly what happened.  Initially, interest rates remained low during the initial phase of that particular QE, as the Fed purchased bonds and tweaked the low end of the yield curve. In addition, they promised to maintain lower rates. But in the early part of 2022, inflation started to be a problem and they changed course.  

 

Today, interest rates are higher and they have some room to lower rates, but because of a weakening US dollar, that may be problematic for them. More and more dollars will be required to purchase bonds, and the increasing federal debt will further erode investor confidence. In other words, the US is in an inflationary environment. There's a tipping point when lowering rates  it's no longer the smart thing to do.  It's always a fluid situation, and the macroeconomic climate is now more important than ever..  In terms of Central Bank fiat currencies, it's a race to the bottom. 

 

Don't forget, this all occurs as Trump is trying to force China's hand. It's a matter of who blinks first, and once the China problem is solved for Trump, then the dollar dominance will reassert itself.

Are you claiming that QE was responsible for the rise of inflation worldwide after the Covid pandemic? That's a pretty lonely position.

 

And why is the dollar sinking in value?  And it's a race to the bottom? Other fiat currencies are rising in relation to the dollar. If it's a race, the dollar is winning! So much winning.

 

And right now inflation really isn't very much above the 2% target. But of course, if the dollar continues to devalue and tariffs are imposed that will obviously change.

 

[jas007]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

Are you claiming that QE was responsible for the rise of inflation worldwide after the Covid pandemic? That's a pretty lonely position.

 

And why is the dollar sinking in value?  And it's a race to the bottom? Other fiat currencies are rising in relation to the dollar. If it's a race, the dollar is winning! So much winning.

 

And right now inflation really isn't very much above the 2% target. But of course, if the dollar continues to devalue and tariffs are imposed that will obviously change.

 

The Central Banks of the world poured trillions into the world economy during QE, primarily the US Fed. Everyone should know that by now.  A lonely position?  LOL.  Maybe you're just being facetious? 

 

And the dollar is sinking in value because of inflation.  Increase the money supply and that's the very definition of inflation.  We won't get into what measure of money supply.  There are several.   

 

As for other currencies rising in relation to the dollar?  A temporary phenomena, for sure, but not all currencies act the same.  At this point, it's as much as a macroeconomic/political reaction to Trump and his on again off again tariffs.  That and his stated goal of a cheaper dollar and lower interest rates which can be accomplished when the Fed buys bonds to prevent a credit freeze.  He's not making any secret of what he wants to do. 

 

In any event, don't think for a minute that the US Fed is alone in its depreciation of the currency.  That's the name of the game all over the world. Inflation.  The central banks buy bonds, thereby pumping "money" into the system, and that money has to be repaid with interest.  Where does that extra money come from?  More borrowing of course.  It's a real racket.  Create money out of thin air and then expect to be paid back, with interest.  Mathematically, the problem compounds over time and eventually there's a problem. 

 

So, at present, the US and China are playing a game of chicken. Who blinks first?  Can China cause a credit freeze in the bond market that the Fed can't handle, or can the US outlast the Chinese when their factories are closing and their workers are losing their jobs and their homes? 

 

What you're going to find out is that China blinks first.  They're already on the verge of collapse. Without the US consumer, they're dead in the water. 

[placeholder]

On 4/15/2025 at 12:15 PM, jas007 said:

The Central Banks of the world poured trillions into the world economy during QE, primarily the US Fed. Everyone should know that by now.  A lonely position?  LOL.  Maybe you're just being facetious? 

 

 

Well, the Fed poured trillions of dollars into QE. And the right wing economists and fellow travelers warned of dire consequences in the form of not just inflation, but hyperinflation. And what actually happened? Nothing. No rise in inflatiion. It stayed low because while the money supply increased. all that QE money didn't enter into circulation.

[placeholder]

On 4/15/2025 at 12:15 PM, jas007 said:

And the dollar is sinking in value because of inflation.  Increase the money supply and that's the very definition of inflation.  We won't get into what measure of money supply.  There are several. 

 

Really, Has the inflation rate risen lately? It's been pretty much flat. And it's been very stable in the Eurozone. So it makes no sense to say thata the dollar is sinking because of inflation given that it has sunk sharply against the Euro.

[placeholder]

On 4/15/2025 at 12:15 PM, jas007 said:

As for other currencies rising in relation to the dollar?  A temporary phenomena, for sure, but not all currencies act the same.  At this point, it's as much as a macroeconomic/political reaction to Trump and his on again off again tariffs.  That and his stated goal of a cheaper dollar and lower interest rates which can be accomplished when the Fed buys bonds to prevent a credit freeze.  He's not making any secret of what he wants to do. 

 

 

This actually contradicts your previous paragraph where you blame inflation for the problem. How does the fed buying bonds prevent a credit freeze? What you're referring to is QE? And QE is not about preventing a credit freeze. A credit freeze happens when the economy is in a state of crisis, like during the onset of the Great Recession or the Great Depression. It's used to lower interest rates in an economy that is functioning below par. And now you're supporting QE?

[placeholder]

On 4/15/2025 at 12:15 PM, jas007 said:

 

In any event, don't think for a minute that the US Fed is alone in its depreciation of the currency.  That's the name of the game all over the world. Inflation.  The central banks buy bonds, thereby pumping "money" into the system, and that money has to be repaid with interest.  Where does that extra money come from?  More borrowing of course.  It's a real racket.  Create money out of thin air and then expect to be paid back, with interest.  Mathematically, the problem compounds over time and eventually there's a problem.

 

what you're referring to is QE and that's long since been wound down. And more borrowing is not the only way to repay those loans. it could be done with tax revenue. Which Republicans have consistently lowered. Not only do they want to lower taxes further, but they also are taking an axe to the IRS meaning tax revenue will decline.

[placeholder]

On 4/15/2025 at 12:15 PM, jas007 said:

 

So, at present, the US and China are playing a game of chicken. Who blinks first?  Can China cause a credit freeze in the bond market that the Fed can't handle, or can the US outlast the Chinese when their factories are closing and their workers are losing their jobs and their homes?

 

China can't cause a credit freeze. If it sells all its bonds it will create a rise in the interest rate that Treasury bonds have to offer. But that's not a freeze.

[jas007]

47 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Really, Has the inflation rate risen lately? It's been pretty much flat. And it's been very stable in the Eurozone. So it makes no sense to say thata the dollar is sinking because of inflation given that it has sunk sharply against the Euro.

You keep repeating the same nonsense, as if that makes it true. If you look, you can find what a congressional committee found when assessing the problem:  The money poured into the system during COVID found its way into the real economy once COVID ended. And in the real economy? Covid-related supply shortages coupled with all the fiscal and monetary stimulus let to inflationary pressures.  Post COVID, the demand was there, but supplies were not in some segments of the economy.  The result: inflation.

 

Remember, pre-COVID, QE type money stayed largely in the banking system, bolstering bank reserves.  But credit was tighter then and consumers were already pretty much tapped out.  Not so, post COVID.