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Posted
6 minutes ago, jas007 said:

I agree with most of that you say, but I also think none of that matters right now. China is the one thing that Trump won't fold on. At least not until he has to, and I think the US Fed has enough firepower to hold on until China folds. People who think that China is "adapting and moving on" are part of the same crowd that has been brainwashed by the mainstream propaganda machine operating around the world.

 

China is in worse shape than you seem to think. Their economy is highly dependent on the US consumer and on consumers around the world. But the key is the US consumer.  China cannot "move on" without the United States and its consumers. As for consumers in the rest of the world?  They, too, don't live in a vacuum.  Most of their economies are on life support and in much worse shape than the USA. Germany is headed for bankruptcy. The UK is broke. France is a mess.  Japan is in trouble as well.  In other words, the EU is already dead in the water. And never forget, the entire world runs on US dollars, a currency which cannot be replaced anytime soon. 

 

So, the sky is not falling.  China has a weak hand.  You really don't want to find out what happens if Trump folds because of a bond market collapse.  


Less than 15 percent of China’s total exports go to the United States. That means 85 percent of their exports are already going to other parts of the world. They’ve been actively working to strengthen trade relationships across Asia and beyond to make up for that 15 percent shortfall. In the long run, they’ll be fine. The 150 billion dollars’ worth of overpriced goods they were essentially pressured to buy from the U.S. annually due to the trade imbalance can now be sourced more cheaply from alternative markets.

 

So while their export numbers may dip temporarily, their overall trade position could end up stronger. Their imports will become cheaper, their supply chains more diversified, and they’ll be less dependent on a politically unpredictable U.S.

 

I’m by no means a fan of China, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that they know how to adapt. In just fifty years, they’ve gone from being one of the poorest countries in Asia to becoming the world’s second-largest economy. My sense is, they’ll continue to adapt, continue to grow, and continue to strengthen economically, while the U.S. risks weakening itself and getting left behind.

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Posted
53 minutes ago, NoDisplayName said:

 

Seriously, man?  "Beijing" doesn't produce pineapples?  That's like saying Washington, DC doesn't grow oranges.

 

Look to the southern provinces for pineapples, durian, jackfruit, bananas, coffee, chocolate.  Half of Hainan Island is pineapple plantation.......Picture078.jpg.06565f440ab4098617a4417ac8dfe6df.jpg

 

 

 

There is a certain amount of tongue in cheek in my post. Beijing itself is too cold for pineapples.

 

China isn't really making agriculture and farming that big of a priority (other than what's needed for national security), manufacturing brings in more money.

Posted
3 minutes ago, FriscoKid said:


Less than 15 percent of China’s total exports go to the United States. That means 85 percent of their exports are already going to other parts of the world. They’ve been actively working to strengthen trade relationships across Asia and beyond to make up for that 15 percent shortfall. In the long run, they’ll be fine. The 150 billion dollars’ worth of overpriced goods they were essentially pressured to buy from the U.S. annually due to the trade imbalance can now be sourced more cheaply from alternative markets.

 

So while their export numbers may dip temporarily, their overall trade position could end up stronger. Their imports will become cheaper, their supply chains more diversified, and they’ll be less dependent on a politically unpredictable U.S.

 

I’m by no means a fan of China, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that they know how to adapt. In just fifty years, they’ve gone from being one of the poorest countries in Asia to becoming the world’s second-largest economy. My sense is, they’ll continue to adapt, continue to grow, and continue to strengthen economically, while the U.S. risks weakening itself and getting left behind.

I think I've said this before, but again, that 15% figure is misleading.  

 

Let's assume the 15% figure is correct in terms of direct imports to the USA.  Fine. But what that figure doesn't reflect is the extent to which China does business with suppliers outside the USA who may have some or all of their products destined for the USA. The world's supply chains are now international and cannot be easily untangled. Products are assembled with parts from all over. Just image the mess someone would have on their hands trying to trace every piece of every finished product and level tariffs accordingly.   

 

China cutting off the US is a dumb move. The US wouldn't be the only "victim."  All around the world, business would suffer, consumers would suffer, and with them China's remaining customers.  The world is already headed for bad times, and, or all practical purposes, China is a big factory that's already running well below capacity.  Stop the customers and you stop the factory and you shut down China. 

Posted
10 minutes ago, FriscoKid said:

Less than 15 percent of China’s total exports go to the United States. That means 85 percent of their exports are already going to other parts of the world. They’ve been actively working to strengthen trade relationships across Asia and beyond to make up for that 15 percent shortfall.

 

I imagine they could make up quite a bit by supplying the Russians with combat drones and military gear, and the Iranians with civilian airliners and stealth fighters, maybe even a fleet of nukular submarines that could be powered with their 60%-enriched uranium.

 

In exchange they'd get all the low-cost energy their economy would ever need.  Oh, and GMO-free soybeans and mRna-free beef from Siberia.

 

Winning!©

  • Sad 1
Posted
15 minutes ago, jas007 said:

China cutting off the US is a dumb move


It seems to me that the U.S. effectively cut off China, and much of the rest of the world, with Trump’s isolationist policies. Whatever China is doing now is merely reactionary. But that doesn’t mean they’re flailing. On the contrary, China is built for the long game. It’s a dictatorship that doesn’t care how much its own people suffer in the short term, they are also used to hardship, which gives it the ability to absorb economic shocks and wait things out.

 

Trump, meanwhile, is wrecking the U.S. economy and raising the cost of living for Americans, despite promising the opposite during his campaign. The longer this continues, the more economic damage piles up. He can’t keep destroying the economy without facing serious consequences. Either he’s going to be forced to cave in or pushed out of government altogether.

 

I watched the full interview yesterday with Jamie Dimon and the Financial Times. He made it clear: the U.S. has maybe three months to end this trade war before it turns into a full-blown disaster. China, on the other hand, could wait one or even two years and still be standing. The U.S. can’t. Americans aren’t used to economic hardship and won’t tolerate it for long.

 

You don’t have to take my word for it. Just watch what happens.

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Posted
51 minutes ago, TheAppletons said:

 

  Mostly, though, Trump supporters are - like Trump - simply repulsive human beings.

 

Because you wanted men in girls bathrooms (you like that) and mass unchecked illegal immigration, not to mention all the theft and graft the elected Democrats engaged in.

 

Your perception of reality is skewed.

 

Keep crying .......

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Posted
9 minutes ago, FriscoKid said:


It seems to me that the U.S. effectively cut off China, and much of the rest of the world, with Trump’s isolationist policies. Whatever China is doing now is merely reactionary. But that doesn’t mean they’re flailing. On the contrary, China is built for the long game. It’s a dictatorship that doesn’t care how much its own people suffer in the short term, they are also used to hardship, which gives it the ability to absorb economic shocks and wait things out.

 

Trump, meanwhile, is wrecking the U.S. economy and raising the cost of living for Americans, despite promising the opposite during his campaign. The longer this continues, the more economic damage piles up. He can’t keep destroying the economy without facing serious consequences. Either he’s going to be forced to cave in or pushed out of government altogether.

 

I watched the full interview yesterday with Jamie Dimon and the Financial Times. He made it clear: the U.S. has maybe three months to end this trade war before it turns into a full-blown disaster. China, on the other hand, could wait one or even two years and still be standing. The U.S. can’t. Americans aren’t used to economic hardship and won’t tolerate it for long.

 

You don’t have to take my word for it. Just watch what happens.

You may well be right. On the other hand, this is an unusual situation. We're not in normal times.

 

Trump is the elected President of the USA. Whatever else he thinks, he seems to have it in for China.  If he folds on this, he might as well pack his bags and go back to Mar-a-Lago.  His presidency would be. over and I'm sure Florida has nice golf courses. No need to worry about the pesky economy for a while. 

 

As for Jaime Dimon? I'm sure he'd like to believe he has a crystal ball, but does he?  As I've said, these aren't normal times and no one really knows how long it will take for the situation to turn into a "full-blown disaster." I do think, though, that we're all about to find out unless China folds. 

 

As for China's ability to "wait"? To be sure, Xi  may think he has all the time in the world, but perhaps he doesn't.  With all the propaganda flying around posing as "news," it's hard to know what's really happening in China.  From what I see, their currency is at a low it hasn't seen in decades, their real estate market has collapsed, real estate lenders in China have been taken over by the government or are on life support, the Chinese middle class is suffering, businesses are shuttered, and once thriving cities are apparently now ghost towns.  China, too, has the possibility of an economic collapse to contend with. 

 

In my mind, it boils down to the Fed's lasting power.  Can they hold the bond market together, and for how long?  Nobody knows the answer to that question, not even Jaime Dimon. 

Posted
3 hours ago, placeholder said:

Please. What you wrote wasn't even remotely adjacent to the truth and did echoes what I've read racists post in this forum.

 

My observation is that:

 

With two strong men, Trump and Xi, as leaders of the two most powerful countries in the world...

We are more likely than ever before...

To sometime soon...be eating...

Bark off trees, when the missiles fly over the Taiwan Strait.

 

Mark my words.

This is not a racist comment.

This is a Realists View, if ever I had one.

 

We shall see, Sir.

 

 

  • Confused 1
Posted
3 hours ago, wadman said:

 

Beijing doesn't produce pineapples, too cold. I have seen pineapples being sold for 10 rmb (1.36 USD) for a whole fruit, too low value for Beijing to really care about.

 

 

Soon, Beijing might begin growing pineapples in hothouses, on the outskirts of the city.

Beijing will have plenty of water, once their new South-to-North water project is completed.

They will channel water from the South, and use it to grow pineapples in the North.

The Commies always love to build extravagant worthless Gov-Projects, such as this, which...

Destroy the environment.

 

 They are BIG on Taming Nature, you know.

 

 

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Posted
2 hours ago, josephbloggs said:


And to think some cruel people say Trump supporters are ignorant and uneducated loons....

 

Yes.

And, just so unfair, too...

 

  • Sad 1
Posted
28 minutes ago, jas007 said:

You may well be right. On the other hand, this is an unusual situation. We're not in normal times.

 

Trump is the elected President of the USA. Whatever else he thinks, he seems to have it in for China.  If he folds on this, he might as well pack his bags and go back to Mar-a-Lago.  His presidency would be. over and I'm sure Florida has nice golf courses. No need to worry about the pesky economy for a while. 

 

As for Jaime Dimon? I'm sure he'd like to believe he has a crystal ball, but does he?  As I've said, these aren't normal times and no one really knows how long it will take for the situation to turn into a "full-blown disaster." I do think, though, that we're all about to find out unless China folds. 

 

As for China's ability to "wait"? To be sure, Xi  may think he has all the time in the world, but perhaps he doesn't.  With all the propaganda flying around posing as "news," it's hard to know what's really happening in China.  From what I see, their currency is at a low it hasn't seen in decades, their real estate market has collapsed, real estate lenders in China have been taken over by the government or are on life support, the Chinese middle class is suffering, businesses are shuttered, and once thriving cities are apparently now ghost towns.  China, too, has the possibility of an economic collapse to contend with. 

 

In my mind, it boils down to the Fed's lasting power.  Can they hold the bond market together, and for how long?  Nobody knows the answer to that question, not even Jaime Dimon. 


To respond in short summary to what you said, Trump’s entire presidency is based on anger and vendettas. I never expected him to make any good, balanced or right decisions because of that. And based on his first term, everything he did involved chaos and destruction. So expecting him to make the right decisions now, for the U.S. or for his own future, seems unrealistic. He only has one dream, and that’s to destroy China. He will fail, but the question is, to what end?

 

As for Jamie Dimon, I’ve always enjoyed hearing what he has to say. He doesn’t come across as someone pretending to have a crystal ball. He was asked questions and he's just basing his opinions on his understanding of the situation. He’s built the biggest and most successful bank in the world so he has a lot of credibility. Unlike Trump, he seems to care about people and the future of the world. He always comes across as fair and understanding, and I find his opinions useful. I’ll link the interview below in case you’re interested in watching it, then you can judge for yourself.

 

It’s hard to predict exactly what will happen with China in the future. But two things are certain: they are patient and resilient, and it’s a very powerful dictatorship that would be extremely difficult to disrupt.

 

Treasuries are moving into dangerous and uncharted territory. Dimon was asked about that as well. I think the situation can be restored and saved if it’s not left to wobble for too long, but it could require the Fed to step in very quickly and cut interest rates by at least 200 basis points as an immediate reaction, similar to what they did during the COVID crash.

 

 

 

Posted
20 hours ago, NoDisplayName said:

 

Oh, no!

 

China is the largest market in aviation due to an increase in domestic air passenger traffic, which has surpassed the North American region and is expected to grow rapidly at a rate of 4.4% by 2040, according to Boeing.

 

https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/aviation-market

 

Nothing says winning like getting shut out of the world's largest market for your DEI products.

 

But what will China do?  How will the world's factory deal with this setback?

 

On 29 September 2022 the C919 received its CAAC type certificate. The first production airframe was delivered to China Eastern Airlines on 9 December 2022 and was put into commercial passenger service on 28 May 2023 (wiki)

 

"All yu airriner berong us!"

 

Winning!©

Now they planning the Comac C929. A wide bodied jet with expected 12,000km range , using lots of Titanium and carbon fibre in the construction to reduce weight.

Posted
3 minutes ago, phetphet said:

Now they planning the Comac C929. A wide bodied jet with expected 12,000km range , using lots of Titanium and carbon fibre in the construction to reduce weight.

 

Silly China!

 

Sanctions and tariffs will put a stop to this!

 

Winning!©

 

 

Posted
19 hours ago, blaze master said:

Not all bad. Less planes = less pollution. Commercial travel is one of the worst individual choices we can make.

 

Myself included. 

It's only a bad choice if you believe/care/ about environmental scaremongering but if like the MAJORITY of the people in the world don't care or believe in NET ZERO then it's a perfectly rational choice regarding getting from A to B.

Posted
3 minutes ago, FriscoKid said:

Treasuries are moving into dangerous and uncharted territory. Dimon was asked about that as well. I think the situation can be restored and saved if it’s not left to wobble for too long, but it could require the Fed to step in very quickly and cut interest rates by at least 200 basis points as an immediate reaction, similar to what they did during the COVID crash.

That's exactly what Trump wants them to do, right?  Buy bonds and lower interest rates.  Surely, that's what will happen. Fed officials have did as much, recently. They'll backstop the bond market.  In the process, they make Trump happy.

 

Jaime Dimon is a banker. That's his world. He thinks like a banker and my guess is he probably thinks the world  reacts in a predictable way to certain forces.  Currency fluctuations, geopolitics, trade imbalances, and so on.  In normal times, it's all somewhat predictable.  

 

But, as you say, Trump goes "had in hand with chaos and destruction."  Keep that in mind. He's the President and he doesn't seem to like China.  

 

You think Trump will fail. I'm not quite so sure.  He may not waiver. To be sure, some of his top advisors are Wall Street guys.  Will he listen to them?  I think they're there for a reason, but how knows what Trump will do? 

Posted
34 minutes ago, GammaGlobulin said:

 

Soon, Beijing might begin growing pineapples in hothouses, on the outskirts of the city.

Beijing will have plenty of water, once their new South-to-North water project is completed.

They will channel water from the South, and use it to grow pineapples in the North.

The Commies always love to build extravagant worthless Gov-Projects, such as this, which...

Destroy the environment.

 

 They are BIG on Taming Nature, you know.

 

 

 

All that for 10 rmb per pineapple?

Posted
7 minutes ago, jas007 said:

That's exactly what Trump wants them to do, right?  Buy bonds and lower interest rates.  Surely, that's what will happen. Fed officials have did as much, recently. They'll backstop the bond market.  In the process, they make Trump happy.


There is a theory floating around that this whole trade war designed by Trump has now shifted into simply being a red herring to try and get (what he sees as an uncooperative Fed chairman) to cut interest rates rapidly. That in itself could help Trump to be perceived to be a winner on the economy. 

 

10 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Jaime Dimon is a banker. That's his world. He thinks like a banker and my guess is he probably thinks the world  reacts in a predictable way to certain forces.


I get the sense that his view is quite a bit wider than just a banker's perspective. I don't think he could've become as successful as he has with having too much banker tunnel vision. 

Posted
1 hour ago, FriscoKid said:

Trump, meanwhile, is wrecking the U.S. economy and raising the cost of living for Americans, despite promising the opposite during his campaign. The longer this continues, the more economic damage piles up. He can’t keep destroying the economy without facing serious consequences. Either he’s going to be forced to cave in or pushed out of government altogether.

Core inflation is at a 4 year low. TRUMP Effect, no thanks to the failed Biden debacle admin.
 
"U.S. inflation dropped in March 2025. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% annually in March, down from 2.8% in February, marking a six-month low. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.1%, the first monthly decline in nearly five years, driven by lower gasoline prices (-6.3%), used vehicle prices (-0.7%), and airfares (-5.3%). Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.1% monthly and 2.8% annually, the lowest since March 2021."
 
Posted
2 hours ago, FriscoKid said:

 

Desperation? It looks more like China is adapting and moving on, while the real damage is happening inside the U.S. Trump’s policies, especially his sweeping tariffs, are doing more to hurt the American economy than anyone abroad. Since January, we’ve seen business investment drop as companies freeze hiring and delay expansion. Major manufacturers are laying off workers due to rising costs and disrupted supply chains. U.S. exports are taking a hit as other countries retaliate with tariffs of their own, pricing American goods out of key markets.

 

Wall Street is jittery, with markets swinging wildly every time a new trade threat is announced. The dollar has weakened, Treasuries are underperforming, and global confidence in the U.S. economy is slipping. Tourism is down, international students are pulling back, and consumer confidence has hit its lowest point in years. Even sectors that once thrived under open trade: tech, autos, agriculture, are now shedding jobs and facing mounting losses.

 

So no, China doesn’t need to take down the U.S. economy. Trump’s doing it just fine on his own.

 

 

What one also has to understand is that the true trade imbalance between China-US is not nearly as lopsided as it may seem. 

 

1. Americans buy a lot of Chinese products, made in China, but directed by American companies. Such as iphones, Nikes, Disney toys, etc. A pair of Nikes at 20 USD factory price gets sold for 200 USD at retail in the US. Americans make the big profits, China is used for cheap labor. 

 

An iphone might have a factory price of 700 USD, and it's recorded as a 700 USD export from China to the US. But many of the components inside the iphone aren't made in China. 

 

2. Americans don't really buy high end Chinese branded products from companies such as BYD, GWM, Geely (EVs), or Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo (phones and electronics), or Lining, Erke, Anta (shoes and clothing).  This is where the real money and value is in Chinese exports, but by and large Americans don't them for a variety of reasons (mostly because they have been blocked by the American government on "national security" grounds).

 

3. America runs a trade surplus on services with China, as they do with many countries.

 

4. There are quite a few American companies that operate inside China at the retail level. Think McDonald's, Burger King, KFC, Starbucks, Walmart, etc. Comparatively very few Chinese companies sell at the retail level in America. One report estimates the annual revenue from these American companies at 600 billion USD, while the Chinese counterparts take in 65 billion USD.

Posted
12 minutes ago, blaxon said:

 

Core inflation is at a 4 year low. TRUMP Effect, no thanks to the failed Biden debacle admin.
 
"U.S. inflation dropped in March 2025. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% annually in March, down from 2.8% in February, marking a six-month low. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.1%, the first monthly decline in nearly five years, driven by lower gasoline prices (-6.3%), used vehicle prices (-0.7%), and airfares (-5.3%). Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.1% monthly and 2.8% annually, the lowest since March 2021."
 

 

When the recession/depression comes, inflation will be even lower. Things may even get cheaper.

Posted

Zoom and MS Teams are the cheaper answer. More video calls, less traveling. I remember seeing a fantastic teleconferencing system in Singapore where the guys in Hong Kong looked like they were in the room across the table.

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Posted
20 minutes ago, FriscoKid said:


There is a theory floating around that this whole trade war designed by Trump has now shifted into simply being a red herring to try and get (what he sees as an uncooperative Fed chairman) to cut interest rates rapidly. That in itself could help Trump to be perceived to be a winner on the economy. 

 

The US economy was doing just fine before Trump started all this tariff nonsense. So why the big need to cut interest rates?

Posted
14 minutes ago, blaxon said:

Core inflation is at a 4 year low. TRUMP Effect, no thanks to the failed Biden debacle admin.


That’s not really true at all. Inflation has been on a steady downward trajectory for the last two years. Most of it came down during the prior administration, and any continued decline in inflation over the last two months is just a continuation of that effect. You can ask any economist and they can explain that to you.

 

But tariffs are an inflationary policy, which will also lead to higher unemployment. It will take a few months for the effects of that to show in the numbers. So unless Trump backs off from his tariff campaign, you will most likely see inflation reverse and start moving back up in the opposite direction.

Posted
20 minutes ago, wadman said:

 

The US economy was doing just fine before Trump started all this tariff nonsense. So why the big need to cut interest rates?


Exactly. The economy was solid prior to Trump's destructive economic policies because that tariff nonsense is now damaging the economy and the financial markets.
 

Trump should have come in and touched nothing and we wouldn't be here. Inflation was low and still falling and unemployment was also at a record low. The perfect economy. But that was too good for Trump and he rather destroy that and say "I did it my way". 
 

Cutting interest rates will reignite the economy, bring down the cost of Federal debt servicing, and cause the financial markets to rally again. Gold will fall and oil prices may rise. Cheap money for everyone! It's "The Fed Put". 

Posted
22 minutes ago, wadman said:

 

When the recession/depression comes, inflation will be even lower. Things may even get cheaper.


Not necessarily. The economy could move even more towards stagflation. High prices, high unemployment, and no growth. 

  • Like 1
Posted
2 hours ago, FriscoKid said:

 

If there’s one thing that’s clear, it’s that no one can force China to do something it doesn’t want to do. Governments have been trying for decades, and it’s always been a waste of time. China has been looking to decouple from the U.S. for years due to unstable relations, and this current situation is only accelerating a process they’ve known was necessary for the past two decades.

 

Rather than being cornered, China is being nudged into doing something it’s been preparing for all along, building stronger trade networks beyond the U.S., reducing dependence on Western markets, and developing self-sufficiency in key sectors.

 

In the long run, it’s entirely possible they emerge from all of this as the world’s largest economy.

 

But without cheap imports from China, and without being able to export American products to China, American jobs and U.S. consumer spending will be lost and the U.S. economy will shrink. 

Xi is running circles around Trump. While Trump destroys the world's belief in anything coming from the US government, Xi is jetting around Asia making deals and strengthening relationships.

All the clown does is flip-flop and continue to trash talk Zelenski while blowing kisses to his favorite dictator. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if he went to Moscow for the Victory Day parade on May 9th, the traitor.

 

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