Stocks Rise After Bessent Says He Expects Standoff with China to De-Escalate

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a closed-door investor summit Tuesday that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and that he expects the situation to de-escalate.
Bessent added that negotiations haven’t started but that a deal is possible, according to people who attended his session at an event hosted by JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Washington, which wasn’t open to the public or media...
US stocks rose after his comments, with the S&P 500 index gaining as much as 2.9% as of 12:28 p.m. in New York, while the dollar and Treasuries steadied.

https://archive.ph/tO8LZ

 

More blinking from Trump? Or is Bessent blowing smoke? Seems unlikely that the Chinese would back down so soon.

[jerrymahoney]

[placeholder]

White House said to close in on India, Japan trade deals, but substance may be thin

The Trump administration is nearing trade deals with India and Japan, a Tuesday media report said, while noting the agreements likely will lack depth until they are finalized, which could take months.

For future deals, officials at the White House are seeking to establish a so-called “memorandums of understanding” or a wider "architecture," Politico reported, citing three people close to the White House.

 

Another person familiar with the matter described it as "an agreement that we would like to talk about doing a deal,” the article said, adding Trump will "start rolling out a bunch" of these pacts.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/white-house-said-to-close-in-on-india-japan-trade-deals-but-substance-may-be-thin/ar-AA1Dpas4

[Tug]

12 minutes ago, placeholder said:

White House said to close in on India, Japan trade deals, but substance may be thin

The Trump administration is nearing trade deals with India and Japan, a Tuesday media report said, while noting the agreements likely will lack depth until they are finalized, which could take months.

For future deals, officials at the White House are seeking to establish a so-called “memorandums of understanding” or a wider "architecture," Politico reported, citing three people close to the White House.

 

Another person familiar with the matter described it as "an agreement that we would like to talk about doing a deal,” the article said, adding Trump will "start rolling out a bunch" of these pacts.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/white-house-said-to-close-in-on-india-japan-trade-deals-but-substance-may-be-thin/ar-AA1Dpas4

I will believe it when the ink is dry and trump is not in a position to cause damage.we know Donald he might need attention to feed his narcissism so at a whim he could upend any agreement he’s sick that way.

[Lacessit]

The Chinese won't be backing down. Trump will tout a surrender as a win.

[jerrymahoney]

Embellishment to the post in World news:

 

While the White House has not officially confirmed the details of Bessent's remarks, press secretary Karoline Leavitt offered a cautiously optimistic tone during a briefing later in the day.

 

“The president and the administration are setting the stage for an incredible deal with China,” Leavitt said. “So we feel everyone involved wants to see an incredible trade deal happen, and the ball is incredibly moving in the right direction.” She declined to elaborate directly on Bessent’s comments but confirmed that the administration believes it is “doing incredibly well in respect to an incredibly potential trade deal with China.”

 

 

[Cryingdick]

Look momma, stocks went up. These threads are always dumb.

[MicroB]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a closed-door investor summit Tuesday that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and that he expects the situation to de-escalate.
Bessent added that negotiations haven’t started but that a deal is possible, according to people who attended his session at an event hosted by JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Washington, which wasn’t open to the public or media...
US stocks rose after his comments, with the S&P 500 index gaining as much as 2.9% as of 12:28 p.m. in New York, while the dollar and Treasuries steadied.

https://archive.ph/tO8LZ

 

More blinking from Trump? Or is Bessent blowing smoke? Seems unlikely that the Chinese would back down so soon.

 

More likely Bessent will be picking up his P45 soon.

 

Sure, ultimately China does need that 15% of GDP that is the value of Chinese exports to the US. But behind all  those sales is an Amazon store, a small high street business (strip mall store), a department store, a distributor, all of which are American businesses, who pay taxes, employ staff.

 

All of these, whether they import directly, or get from a distributor, buy for $x, the sell in price, sell for $y, the sell out price, or the retail price. If China is selling $400bn in goods in the US, then the marked up price of those goods could well be $1200-1600bn, and profit $500-800bn.

 

The likes of Walmart, Target, you'd hope would have been talking to their Chinese suppliers a while back, getting that sell-in price reduced. They are already aggressive on pricing, because their warehousing/inventory costs are considerable. You don't want to go to Walmart and see that pair of Chinese hiking boots in your size out of stock until the next container arrives in 3 months time,. Your alternative will be the Target store selling the cheap Indian made boots. But you don't really want to go to that high end outdoors store and pay 5-6x as much for the US made Danners, Because that's why you were looking at the Chinese boots in the first place. Danner meanwhile have positioned themselves as a high end boot maker; you pay top money for a boot that comes with that famous 20 year warranty. But honestly, who keeps walking boots that long (some so). Which is why Danner have their Chinese made range; a lot cheaper, but more money than Walmart's Brahma boots, because Danner (in reality, Danner are making a ton of money importing boots from pretty much the same factory where Walmart get their stuff from).

 

The big chains will be ok. Prices will go up a bit, shareholder dividend cut, but gross revenues maintained.

 

The small stores though can't often ask their suppliers to cut prices. They have to pay the duty on everything they are getting through Alibaba. A whole business was built on the model, that they will sell pretty much the same boot at Walmart, but maybe for a little more, and their customers appreciate the personal service. But they sell $50 boots, and their regular customers are not in the market for $400 boots, so right now, switching to Danner would kill their business.

 

There are about 30 million businesses in the US, out of which 1 million are bricks and morter retail stores. Most of these are not chains; the chains dominate in terms of volumes of goods sold. There are 10,000 Walmarts, 2000 Targets, 600 Costcos. Easily, there are 950,000 independent "Mom and Pop" retail stores, selling goods at non-premium prices.  Sure, they could switch suppliers. Maybe one day there will be that US boot factory who can make a pair of boots for $10, that can retail for $40-50. But not this year, and probably not next.

 

There are about 4 million online retailers in the US. I suspect most of those have little to no stock, and are effect drop shipping businesses. Which means they can be a lot cheaper than physical stores, who need to buy and sell stock. They are screwed.

 

So, the tariff war is unsustainable. Ultimately, China has $400bn at stake, which it might make by dumping in other markets (great time for bargains in Europe). But there is a lot more at stake to US businesses. The idea of a small business might be blown away. The big chains will employ big lobbyists, to defend their businesses, but they have the benefit of much more buying power, and more diverse product ranges, with loss leaders.. Small businesses; they can appeal to their local Chamber of Commerces, who will get nowhere. Walmart won't be helping them.

[jerrymahoney]

Stocks whipsaw based on someone in the White House saying something stupid and then saying that what I meant to say wasn't really stupid just that the media thinks it was stupid but nevertheless I will withdraw what I said that some people think was stupid even though I and Ms. Leavitt do not think it was (incredibly) stupid.

[bunnydrops]

1 hour ago, jerrymahoney said:

I miss Pogo!

[Cryingdick]

It will probably go down tomorrow as traders take profits because of uncertainty/

[bunnydrops]

It reminds me that after 8 years, someone said "we have a concept of a plan" on health care.

[placeholder]

47 minutes ago, MicroB said:

 

More likely Bessent will be picking up his P45 soon.

 

Sure, ultimately China does need that 15% of GDP that is the value of Chinese exports to the US. But behind all  those sales is an Amazon store, a small high street business (strip mall store), a department store, a distributor, all of which are American businesses, who pay taxes, employ staff.

 

All of these, whether they import directly, or get from a distributor, buy for $x, the sell in price, sell for $y, the sell out price, or the retail price. If China is selling $400bn in goods in the US, then the marked up price of those goods could well be $1200-1600bn, and profit $500-800bn.

 

The likes of Walmart, Target, you'd hope would have been talking to their Chinese suppliers a while back, getting that sell-in price reduced. They are already aggressive on pricing, because their warehousing/inventory costs are considerable. You don't want to go to Walmart and see that pair of Chinese hiking boots in your size out of stock until the next container arrives in 3 months time,. Your alternative will be the Target store selling the cheap Indian made boots. But you don't really want to go to that high end outdoors store and pay 5-6x as much for the US made Danners, Because that's why you were looking at the Chinese boots in the first place. Danner meanwhile have positioned themselves as a high end boot maker; you pay top money for a boot that comes with that famous 20 year warranty. But honestly, who keeps walking boots that long (some so). Which is why Danner have their Chinese made range; a lot cheaper, but more money than Walmart's Brahma boots, because Danner (in reality, Danner are making a ton of money importing boots from pretty much the same factory where Walmart get their stuff from).

 

The big chains will be ok. Prices will go up a bit, shareholder dividend cut, but gross revenues maintained.

 

The small stores though can't often ask their suppliers to cut prices. They have to pay the duty on everything they are getting through Alibaba. A whole business was built on the model, that they will sell pretty much the same boot at Walmart, but maybe for a little more, and their customers appreciate the personal service. But they sell $50 boots, and their regular customers are not in the market for $400 boots, so right now, switching to Danner would kill their business.

 

There are about 30 million businesses in the US, out of which 1 million are bricks and morter retail stores. Most of these are not chains; the chains dominate in terms of volumes of goods sold. There are 10,000 Walmarts, 2000 Targets, 600 Costcos. Easily, there are 950,000 independent "Mom and Pop" retail stores, selling goods at non-premium prices.  Sure, they could switch suppliers. Maybe one day there will be that US boot factory who can make a pair of boots for $10, that can retail for $40-50. But not this year, and probably not next.

 

There are about 4 million online retailers in the US. I suspect most of those have little to no stock, and are effect drop shipping businesses. Which means they can be a lot cheaper than physical stores, who need to buy and sell stock. They are screwed.

 

So, the tariff war is unsustainable. Ultimately, China has $400bn at stake, which it might make by dumping in other markets (great time for bargains in Europe). But there is a lot more at stake to US businesses. The idea of a small business might be blown away. The big chains will employ big lobbyists, to defend their businesses, but they have the benefit of much more buying power, and more diverse product ranges, with loss leaders.. Small businesses; they can appeal to their local Chamber of Commerces, who will get nowhere. Walmart won't be helping them.

Just a correction: it's 15% of China's exports not 15% of China's GDP. Which would mean it's about  3% of China's GDP. 

[Tug]

1 hour ago, Cryingdick said:

Look momma, stocks went up. These threads are always dumb.

Look momma why would someone do such a thing and hurt so many people?and momma answered there are 3 possibilities #1 stupidity #2 cruelty #3=most likely to manipulate things to make money…..im going with 2 and 3 together.#3 is a crime btw

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, Tug said:

Look momma why would someone do such a thing and hurt so many people?and momma answered there are 3 possibilities #1 stupidity #2 cruelty #3=most likely to manipulate things to make money…..im going with 2 and 3 together.#3 is a crime btw

Why do you think Trump and Musk have been combining voluntary redundancy offers with firings at the SEC?

[FlorC]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-major-ports-stall-as-us-tariff-hike-to-145-disrupts-trade-flow-factories-halt-production/articleshow/120276825.cms

China's port full of containers.

 

Chinese plastics factories that depend on a gas they mainly import from the US are contending with the prospect of widespread shutdowns as the world’s two largest economies bunker down for a prolonged trade war.

 

 

"The situation is dire for China’s ethane crackers as they have no alternative to US supply,” said Manish Sejwal, an analyst at Rystad Energy AS, using an industry term for such facilities. "Unless they are granted tariff exemptions, they may have to stop production or close shop."

Needless to say, that would be catastrophic for China's plastics industy.

 

Who's blinking first .

[placeholder]

16 minutes ago, FlorC said:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-major-ports-stall-as-us-tariff-hike-to-145-disrupts-trade-flow-factories-halt-production/articleshow/120276825.cms

China's port full of containers.

 

Chinese plastics factories that depend on a gas they mainly import from the US are contending with the prospect of widespread shutdowns as the world’s two largest economies bunker down for a prolonged trade war.

 

 

"The situation is dire for China’s ethane crackers as they have no alternative to US supply,” said Manish Sejwal, an analyst at Rystad Energy AS, using an industry term for such facilities. "Unless they are granted tariff exemptions, they may have to stop production or close shop."

Needless to say, that would be catastrophic for China's plastics industy.

 

Who's blinking first .

Or the Chinese government could suspend tariffs on this one item. And then it would be up to the US to halt shipments of it.

[Lacessit]

22 minutes ago, FlorC said:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-major-ports-stall-as-us-tariff-hike-to-145-disrupts-trade-flow-factories-halt-production/articleshow/120276825.cms

China's port full of containers.

 

Chinese plastics factories that depend on a gas they mainly import from the US are contending with the prospect of widespread shutdowns as the world’s two largest economies bunker down for a prolonged trade war.

 

 

"The situation is dire for China’s ethane crackers as they have no alternative to US supply,” said Manish Sejwal, an analyst at Rystad Energy AS, using an industry term for such facilities. "Unless they are granted tariff exemptions, they may have to stop production or close shop."

Needless to say, that would be catastrophic for China's plastics industy.

 

Who's blinking first .

What absolute rubbish. Australia and the Middle East have so much LNG some of it is flared. Australia itself has 157 trillion cubic feet of gas, and that's not even counting coal seam gas reserves.

 

I have no doubt Australia would be quite happy to sell more gas to China.

[Lacessit]

The US government is blinking.

 

China has embargoed rare earth exports. Without them, what's left of American manufacturing capacity is stuffed.

 

That's why Trump is making noises about de-escalating. China holds the aces.