Gold, the undisputed "safe harbor". Or is it?

[swissie]

I am starting to feel a bit uneasy. More and more "financial advisors" pushing Gold as a uncontested "store of value", a "safe harbor". The "can't lose" syndrome making the rounds.

 

Those financial advisors forgetting to mention, that Gold has gone thru "bear markets". The last one lasting from July 2011 to December 2015. From $ 1830 down to $ 1060. Not sure if Gold holders considered Gold as a store of value during this time.

 

Let's face it, Gold is a metal (a commodity if you will) it's value measured in US$ daily. Supply and demand, just like in any other commodity.

 

I find it disturbing that increasingly financial advisors are recommending Gold to small investors as a "can't lose" investment.

[Yellowtail]

"financial advisors", what a hoot

[swissie]

1 minute ago, Yellowtail said:

"financial advisors", what a hoot

A very respected profession. Like "voodoo-priests" in Africa.

 

 

[Cameroni]

7 minutes ago, swissie said:

I am starting to feel a bit uneasy. More and more "financial advisors" pushing Gold as a uncontested "store of value", a "safe harbor". The "can't lose" syndrome making the rounds.

 

Those financial advisors forgetting to mention, that Gold has gone thru "bear markets". The last one lasting from July 2011 to December 2015. From $ 1830 down to $ 1060. Not sure if Gold holders considered Gold as a store of value during this time.

 

Let's face it, Gold is a metal (a commodity if you will) it's value measured in US$ daily. Supply and demand, just like in any other commodity.

 

I find it disturbing that increasingly financial advisors are recommending Gold to small investors as a "can't lose" investment.

 

Yup, 2011 to 2015 was a clear bear market for Gold.

 

I think you're absolutely right, investors should be mindful that Gold can go down as well.

 

I quite agree.

[Stocky]

10 minutes ago, swissie said:

I find it disturbing that increasingly financial advisors are recommending Gold to small investors as a "can't lose" investment.

Anyone dumb enough to believe there's such a thing as 'a "can't lose" investment' deserves to lose their shirt.

[Yellowtail]

I am about 12% in gold and think it is an okay "safe haven" investment, but in the just over ten years I've been holding it, everything I have (but my home) has outperformed it. 

 

[FlorC]

Yes I bought it too in 2011 , but not for a quick profit.

I certainly do not regret it.

 

Central banks keep buying.

 

It is always risky buying when it is high like now.

You should have bought years ago.

 

Still if you want to get out of paper money , or get your money out of banks before you are forced

into CBDC's (like the digital euro in october 2025) , there is not much choice.

[swissie]

7 minutes ago, FlorC said:

Yes I bought it too in 2011 , but not for a quick profit.

I certainly do not regret it.

 

Central banks keep buying.

 

It is always risky buying when it is high like now.

You should have bought years ago.

 

Still if you want to get out of paper money , or get your money out of banks before you are forced

into CBDC's (like the digital euro in october 2025) , there is not much choice.

Sorry, What are CBDC's? If it's shares of "houses of ill repute" I will sell my Gold and invest in CBDC's.

[Furioso]

Is it possible to buy gold at their "spot" price? 

[swissie]

23 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Yup, 2011 to 2015 was a clear bear market for Gold.

 

I think you're absolutely right, investors should be mindful that Gold can go down as well.

 

I quite agree.

The reason that I started this thred was that a "reputable banker" recommended to my 82 year old frind, that he should invests 30% of his assets in Gold. = IN THE LONG TERM YOU CAN't LOSE WITH GOLD. I don't know how much "long term" my 82 year old friend has left. The Banker seems to be optimistic.

[Cameroni]

26 minutes ago, swissie said:

The reason that I started this thred was that a "reputable banker" recommended to my 82 year old frind, that he should invests 30% of his assets in Gold. = IN THE LONG TERM YOU CAN't LOSE WITH GOLD. I don't know how much "long term" my 82 year old friend has left. The Banker seems to be optimistic.

 

Yes, obviously not a very tailored reccomendation.

 

Though it should be noted that after the present correction many people do see Gold continuing an upward trayectory.

 

But this is the beauty of the markets, they can always  surprise you, and I think you're right, it's good to bear in mind that Gold can go down as well, not just up.

[BangkokHank]

1 hour ago, FlorC said:

Still if you want to get out of paper money , or get your money out of banks before you are forced

into CBDC's (like the digital euro in october 2025) , there is not much choice.

This is precisely why I have 65% of my net worth in physical gold at the moment: If it continues to go up, fine. But for me, the most important thing is to have assets outside of the banking system and not in the form of paper money when the SHTF and/or when CBDCs are forced on us. 

[swissie]

6 minutes ago, BangkokHank said:

This is precisely why I have 65% of my net worth in physical gold at the moment: If it continues to go up, fine. But for me, the most important thing is to have assets outside of the banking system and not in the form of paper money when the SHTF and/or when CBDCs are forced on us. 

Call me an ignorant: What are SHTF's and CBDC's?  I hope it's something immoral.

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, swissie said:

Call me an ignorant: What are SHTF's and CBDC's?  I hope it's something immoral.

Sh*t hits the fan and (I had to google) Central Bank Digital Currency

[BangkokHank]

1 minute ago, swissie said:

Call me an ignorant: What are SHTF's and CBDC's?  I hope it's something immoral.

CBDCs are "Central Bank Digital Currencies", which are intended to replace cash - so that everybody's financial transactions can be tracked and controlled by the government - and if you do anything the government doesn't like, your access to your (digital only) money can be turned off.

 

"When the SHTF" means "When the <deleted>e hits the fan", which means when everything falls apart.

[connda]

1 hour ago, swissie said:

I am starting to feel a bit uneasy. More and more "financial advisors" pushing Gold as a uncontested "store of value", a "safe harbor". The "can't lose" syndrome making the rounds.

 

Those financial advisors forgetting to mention, that Gold has gone thru "bear markets". The last one lasting from July 2011 to December 2015. From $ 1830 down to $ 1060. Not sure if Gold holders considered Gold as a store of value during this time.

 

Let's face it, Gold is a metal (a commodity if you will) it's value measured in US$ daily. Supply and demand, just like in any other commodity.

 

I find it disturbing that increasingly financial advisors are recommending Gold to small investors as a "can't lose" investment.

Ok.  Don't invest in gold.   Next topic?

[swissie]

20 minutes ago, BangkokHank said:

CBDCs are "Central Bank Digital Currencies", which are intended to replace cash - so that everybody's financial transactions can be tracked and controlled by the government - and if you do anything the government doesn't like, your access to your (digital only) money can be turned off.

 

"When the SHTF" means "When the <deleted>e hits the fan", which means when everything falls apart.

Thanks for reply.

 

Does that mean that I could no more buy 100 sacks of potatoes with a 1 kilo Gold bar at the local market, without being qualified as an "enemy of the state"? 

 

AFAIK, most European Countries will still allow for a "cash economy", limiting cash transfers to 10'000 Euros.

 

Please elaborate. I consider something like this as a serious matter concerning EVERYBODY alive.

 

[swissie]

33 minutes ago, connda said:

Ok.  Don't invest in gold.   Next topic?

Silver? Or BItcoins? Or Tulips?

 

During 1633 and 1637 there was the Tulip mania in Holland. With a Tulip seed one could buy a house. It had the intrinsic value of a Tulip Seed at least. Bitcoins intrinsic value consist of the air that's in my cars tires.

 

First choice is Silver, second choice is Tulips for me . Bitcoin a distant 77.

[Schoggibueb]

As your nickname seems somehow swiss....

CHF is one of the best currencies worldwide as you know. Stock markets and gold can crash ANYTIME. Many National banks are stocking up on gold. Especially China. This can change from one day to another. Are you able to plan for 5, 10 or 20 years? And if so - what will the world look like in 20 years? Nobody knows.

But as we are in a Thailand thread, here just a sample THB to USD, EUR and CHF.

 

Don't try to catch a falling knive - not even as an expert.

[swissie]

2 hours ago, Schoggibueb said:

As your nickname seems somehow swiss....

CHF is one of the best currencies worldwide as you know. Stock markets and gold can crash ANYTIME. Many National banks are stocking up on gold. Especially China. This can change from one day to another. Are you able to plan for 5, 10 or 20 years? And if so - what will the world look like in 20 years? Nobody knows.

But as we are in a Thailand thread, here just a sample THB to USD, EUR and CHF.

 

Don't try to catch a falling knive - not even as an expert.

If only you would have included a long term chart displaying the US Dollar versus the Swiss Franc.Then you would know how much I suffer, as a good part of my investments are still denominated in US Dollars.

 In the mid-sixties, the Dollar was 4:1. When I moved to the US in 1978 the Dollar  was down to 1,6 to 1. That's when I made major investments in the US. Today it's something like 0.8 to 1. Needless to say that the yield of my investments in the US were greatly "watered down" due to the fact that the US Dollar was in a steady decline versus my "home currency" over decades, as I returned to my home country.

The fact, that the Swissies were able to keep a "state household" in balance, not accumulating much "Dept" (as opposed to everyone else) has turned the Swiss Franc into something like an alternative to Gold.  Making the Swiss Franc "expensive". Making our exports too expensive for the rest of the world.

 A strong currency can be a blessing or a curse. In the case of Switzerland it is likely to turn out as a curse. The wolfes will eventually overpower the trusty sheep dogs, leaving the sheep defensless.

 

[300sd]

Gold goes up when people lose confidence in governments. I think that's happening now. Interesting most Thais, especially women, usually know what the price is and buy it when they have extra money.

[hotandsticky]

3 minutes ago, 300sd said:

Gold goes up when people lose confidence in governments. I think that's happening now. Interesting most Thais, especially women, usually know what the price is and buy it when they have extra money.

 

 

.. and they can pawn it when necessary.

 

Many years ago when my missus told me gold had gone over 10,000 Baht I told her not to bother because I said it will soon fall back.

 

 

I no longer give financial advice.