Cambodia Forecasts 6.3% Growth in 2025 Amid Global Headwinds

[geovalin]

 

Cambodia’s economy is expected to grow by 6.3% in 2025, according to Prime Minister Hun Manet, who hailed the projection as a sign of resilience in the face of persistent global uncertainty and geopolitical instability.

 

In a statement marking the country’s 8th National Technical and Vocational Education and Training Day, the Prime Minister said GDP is forecast to hit $51.39 billion next year, with per capita income rising to $2,924, up from $2,713 in 2024. He credited industrial growth, services expansion, and agriculture as the key drivers behind the projection.

 

“Cambodia stands at a turning point,” Hun Manet said. “We must seize this golden opportunity to industrialise, diversify, and deepen our economic integration.”

 

Despite the upbeat outlook, the Prime Minister acknowledged external pressures, including the ripple effects of global conflicts and a fragile recovery in major economies. He stressed the importance of lasting peace and political stability as the foundation for continued investment and job creation.

 

Policy analyst Seun Sam of the Royal Academy of Cambodia welcomed the forecast but urged caution. “Sustaining 6.3 percent growth will not be easy,” he said, citing ongoing conflicts, rising tensions in the Middle East, and a volatile US economy as major concerns.

 

He also pointed to Cambodia’s reliance on trade with Thailand, warning that any political or economic friction with its neighbour could disrupt agricultural exports. To strengthen resilience, Sam encouraged a push toward domestic production and value-added agriculture. “When everyone has a job, the economy grows,” he added.

 

The World Bank, however, struck a more cautious note. In its latest economic update, it projects Cambodia’s growth to ease to 4.0% in 2025, reflecting slowing momentum in construction, tighter credit conditions, and global supply chain disruptions.

 

Still, recent export figures offer some encouragement. In the first quarter of 2025, shipments of garments, bicycles, and travel goods rose 11.6% year-on-year. Tourist arrivals also improved, although they remain below pre-COVID levels.

 

The government, meanwhile, remains focused on improving infrastructure, boosting productivity, and fostering high-value manufacturing as part of a broader shift toward economic diversification.

 

With inflation ticking up to 3.7% and banking sector risks emerging, Cambodia’s path forward remains uncertain—but policymakers appear determined to steer through turbulence with a steady hand.

 

-2025-06-16