Back Kachin, Not the Junta: US Policy Faces Reckoning in Myanmar

[geovalin]

 

Wiki

 

The United States is backing the wrong horse in Myanmar — and it may be costing both peace and critical minerals.

 

Despite years of brutal conflict and failed peace plans, Washington remains committed to a unified Myanmar, supporting democratic transition within its current borders. But a new analysis argues this position is both strategically misguided and statistically doomed.

 

According to experts Robert S. Burrell and Chris Mason, Myanmar’s civil war — now the world’s longest — is unwinnable under present conditions. Deeply fractured by history, ethnic divides, and mutual distrust, Myanmar is not a cohesive state but a patchwork of warring nations. Attempts to hold it together, they argue, are prolonging bloodshed and bolstering China’s grip on vital rare earth minerals.

 

Central to this argument is Kachin State, a resource-rich region in Myanmar’s far north. Home to the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), which controls swathes of territory and key trade routes into China, the state is fast becoming a geopolitical flashpoint. Despite the chaos, Kachin remains the world’s third-largest source of rare earths — crucial components in everything from mobile phones to military hardware.

 

Right now, China is extracting those minerals through illegal mines, funnelling profits across the border while leaving Kachin’s environment and people ravaged. But the tide is turning. In early 2024, the KIA captured dozens of junta positions and now oversees much of the rare earth flow — yet earns a fraction of its value. China, in response, has shut down cross-border trade and staged military drills as a show of force.

 

The authors argue the US should recognise the inevitable: Myanmar is breaking apart, and clinging to its outdated borders serves no one — except China. Instead, they call for bold support for Kachin independence, echoing the break-up of Yugoslavia as a model. Such a shift would not only align with local desires for self-determination but also disrupt China’s near-monopoly on rare earths.

 

For decades, the Kachin have harboured strong pro-US sentiment, rooted in WWII-era alliances. The opportunity, the authors say, is clear: the US must abandon its flawed support for an artificial state and back a new, independent Kachin — before China locks in its dominance for good.

 

-2025-07-02

[spidermike007]

This may be a good idea. Based on its history, Burma in its present form appears unsustainable. Anything that can be done to weaken the genocidal, serial killing, gem smuggling, heroin dealing, morally bankrupt junta, and it's cadre of multi billionaire generals would be a great thing for humanity. 

[Srikcir]

On 7/2/2025 at 9:07 AM, geovalin said:

The authors argue the US should recognise the inevitable:

Unlike Vietnam with beachfront properties wherein the Trump Organization can brand its name on Condos, casinos, etc, But maybe there might be a place for a Big Beautiful Area for a Trump Golf Course complex? Just make sure any solar and wind farms are not nearby.

[impulse]

Perhaps the USA should just sit this one out and let the Asians solve their own problems.

 

If I was Thailand, I may cast greedy eyes on all that waterfront property where the borders as drawn don't really make any sense.

 

[placnx]

10 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

This may be a good idea. Based on its history, Burma in its present form appears unsustainable. Anything that can be done to weaken the genocidal, serial killing, gem smuggling, heroin dealing, morally bankrupt junta, and it's cadre of multi billionaire generals would be a great thing for humanity. 

The first ten years of Burma's statehood was a trial period where the Shan states, etc, would decide whether or not to remain in the Union of Burma. It was supposed to be a federation, but the military didn't like the federation concept. If the junta can be junked, maybe the people should try again at having a federation.