Back Kachin, Not the Junta: US Policy Faces Reckoning in Myanmar

[geovalin]

 

Wiki

 

The United States is backing the wrong horse in Myanmar — and it may be costing both peace and critical minerals.

 

Despite years of brutal conflict and failed peace plans, Washington remains committed to a unified Myanmar, supporting democratic transition within its current borders. But a new analysis argues this position is both strategically misguided and statistically doomed.

 

According to experts Robert S. Burrell and Chris Mason, Myanmar’s civil war — now the world’s longest — is unwinnable under present conditions. Deeply fractured by history, ethnic divides, and mutual distrust, Myanmar is not a cohesive state but a patchwork of warring nations. Attempts to hold it together, they argue, are prolonging bloodshed and bolstering China’s grip on vital rare earth minerals.

 

Central to this argument is Kachin State, a resource-rich region in Myanmar’s far north. Home to the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), which controls swathes of territory and key trade routes into China, the state is fast becoming a geopolitical flashpoint. Despite the chaos, Kachin remains the world’s third-largest source of rare earths — crucial components in everything from mobile phones to military hardware.

 

Right now, China is extracting those minerals through illegal mines, funnelling profits across the border while leaving Kachin’s environment and people ravaged. But the tide is turning. In early 2024, the KIA captured dozens of junta positions and now oversees much of the rare earth flow — yet earns a fraction of its value. China, in response, has shut down cross-border trade and staged military drills as a show of force.

 

The authors argue the US should recognise the inevitable: Myanmar is breaking apart, and clinging to its outdated borders serves no one — except China. Instead, they call for bold support for Kachin independence, echoing the break-up of Yugoslavia as a model. Such a shift would not only align with local desires for self-determination but also disrupt China’s near-monopoly on rare earths.

 

For decades, the Kachin have harboured strong pro-US sentiment, rooted in WWII-era alliances. The opportunity, the authors say, is clear: the US must abandon its flawed support for an artificial state and back a new, independent Kachin — before China locks in its dominance for good.

 

-2025-07-02

[spidermike007]

This may be a good idea. Based on its history, Burma in its present form appears unsustainable. Anything that can be done to weaken the genocidal, serial killing, gem smuggling, heroin dealing, morally bankrupt junta, and it's cadre of multi billionaire generals would be a great thing for humanity. 

[Srikcir]

On 7/2/2025 at 9:07 AM, geovalin said:

The authors argue the US should recognise the inevitable:

Unlike Vietnam with beachfront properties wherein the Trump Organization can brand its name on Condos, casinos, etc, But maybe there might be a place for a Big Beautiful Area for a Trump Golf Course complex? Just make sure any solar and wind farms are not nearby.

[impulse]

Perhaps the USA should just sit this one out and let the Asians solve their own problems.

 

If I was Thailand, I may cast greedy eyes on all that waterfront property where the borders as drawn don't really make any sense.

 

[placnx]

10 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

This may be a good idea. Based on its history, Burma in its present form appears unsustainable. Anything that can be done to weaken the genocidal, serial killing, gem smuggling, heroin dealing, morally bankrupt junta, and it's cadre of multi billionaire generals would be a great thing for humanity. 

The first ten years of Burma's statehood was a trial period where the Shan states, etc, would decide whether or not to remain in the Union of Burma. It was supposed to be a federation, but the military didn't like the federation concept. If the junta can be junked, maybe the people should try again at having a federation. 

[ericbj]

 

It is encouraging to see that the US government is being advised to involve itself in the struggle in Burma for human rights, including self-determination of the different ethnicities.

 

But I believe this assessment overlooks two primary considerations:

 

1.  Supporting the Kachin to the exclusion of other ethnicities, including the Burman who are now doing much of the fighting against the regime alongside their ethnic colleagues, will doom all hope of removing China's puppet government in NayPyiThaw.
The Kachin are a few hundred thousand amongst a population of millions, and if one takes the real population figures as opposed to regime-census statistics (and those of colonial times which categorized Buddhists as Burmans), the non-Burman ethnics altogether probably constitute roughly half of the population.  And Kachinland is far removed from sources of external aid.

 

2.  Most of those resisting the regime now seem to realise that a united struggle is the only way to achieve their collective goals; without the fatal temporary truces of the past the regime negotiated with individual EAOs.
Even the Rakhines seem to realise this need, while aiming more for independence than being part of a federal democracy.

 

Moreover, Burma's geo-strategic importance is much greater than that offered by the mineral resources of Kachinland (and elsewhere in the country's periphery).

Burma is a vital east-west land-bridge between South-East Asia and South Asia and a north-south bridge between Yunnan and the Indian Ocean (and Bangladesh, Bengal, and Thailand).

 

Why has the US government chosen to confront China in the South China Sea and ignored Burma? 

I suspect because of memories of Korea:  it understands it cannot win a land war in the region, but thinks it might still be able successfully to confront China by sea and air along its heavily defended coastline (a doubtful proposition).

 

The US must use a carrot-and-stick approach to achieving a win-win solution in Burma.  Whereby China agrees to abide by its own declared principle of "non-intervention in the internal affairs of other countries", in return for certain guarantees.
It is a part of the price of freedom.

[ericbj]

Press release from Khit Thit Media: a garbled automatic translation, edited to render more intelligible.
It makes clear how China is putting pressure on the Northern Brotherhood Alliance.  And at the same time highlights how difficult it is to assist the Kachin and allies in the far north of Burma.
________________________________

China threatens KIA that it will stop purchasing minerals from Kachin State if the war against [the military regime] is not stopped.
Yangon, July 8
According to a writer's report, China is threatening KIA that [it] will stop purchasing minerals if the war against [the military regime] is not stopped.
… [unitelligible] The KIA has been fighting the battle for VanMau since December 2024 and [mining] excavation is being carried out near Vanmau, where almost half of the world's mineral [rare-earth] production is currently undertaken.
China, which mainly buys and stocks minerals from Kachin State, has threatened the KIA if it does not stop fighting to hold VanMau, it will stop purchasing minerals.
In May this year, during a meeting with officials from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, it was reported that China is using the purchase of resources to force compliance with its wishes.
Although Reuters "is unable to decide whether or not China has used threats, local fighting has led to restrictions on mining activities and rare-earth exports from Myanmar have also fallen this year."
"The earlier ceasefire and peace talks between Myanmar Army and Kachin Independence Army were for the common good of both China and Myanmar and its people," said a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
A Senior General of KIA says "I don't make any comment about pressure from China."
China has offered cross-border trade with KIA-controlled territory if an unnamed KIA official calls off the fighting against regime forces."
"If we do not accept, they will block export of products, including minerals, from Kachin State to China," said a KIA official.
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