Photo courtesy of Socialgiver

 

Thailand's restaurant scene is in crisis, grappling with soaring costs, dwindling patrons, and lacklustre tourism. The once-thriving industry now faces potential collapse, as daily revenues fall over 50% according to the Thai Restaurant Association.

 

"Restaurant owners are under immense pressure," stated Line Man Wongnai CEO, Yod Chinsupakul.

 

Foot traffic has sharply declined, with same-store sales dropping 14% from 2024 to 2025, compared to a modest 3% decrease the previous year. Although food delivery grows, predicted to account for 29% of sales by 2025, it remains insufficient to bridge the revenue gap.

 

The Kasikorn Research Centre has downgraded its 2025 food and beverage growth projection from 4.6% to 2.8%, estimating a market value of 646 billion baht (around £14.6 billion), down from an earlier estimate of 657 billion baht.

 

Adding to the woes, raw material costs have surged by 25%, labour wages by 5%, and Chinese tourist arrivals—once a buoy for the industry—remain slow.

 

New restaurant openings have drastically halved, from 96,000 in early 2023 to just 44,000 this year, with predictions that half will shutter within a year.

 

To navigate this storm, Yod proposes a four-pronged strategy:

 

1. Embrace Technology: Digital ordering and cashless payments are increasingly favoured, with QR code and e-wallet usage 32% higher per transaction than traditional cash payments.
2. Scalable Models: Quick service restaurants (QSRs) are a viable path forward. "Full-service dining is fading. Brands like Suki Teenoi show how growth can be achieved," observed Yod.
3. Financial Acumen: With most restaurants as sole proprietorships, proper bookkeeping is often lacking, complicating funding and technological adoption.
4. Government Intervention: Yod highlights the need for targeted tax breaks and support schemes to aid small and medium-sized enterprises in adapting and expanding.

 

Despite the grim outlook, some sectors thrive. Affordable speciality coffee sales in Bangkok have surged by 46%, with delivery comprising 22% of their revenue. Matcha is also popular, experiencing a 28% growth.

 

Without strategic shifts and support, the future of Thailand's restaurant industry remains precarious. The coming years demand innovative resilience from restaurateurs if they hope to revive this crucial segment of the Thai economy.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from The Thaiger 2025-07-22

 

 

He missed the MAJOR change needed - restaurants should stop being so greedy by putting prices up!  Example - one restaurant I go to in Sukhumvit Soi 8 has put its prices up 3 times this year. I won’t go back. I’d rather cook it myself at home. 

Thai Examiner had a great article on how Thais are totally tapped out.

 

Expect many closures. I see it already.

 

I (We) almost never eat in restaurants. The price is ridiculous add VAT add service. At this point it's just sushi every few weeks.

 

Certainly, taxes on imported food doesn't help ethnic restaurants

 

Street food 👍

Food court 👍

16 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The Kasikorn Research Centre has downgraded its 2025 food and beverage growth projection from 4.6% to 2.8%,

So, still growing ...

A huge problemn I see in Thai FB industry...

 

Too much build out on fancy surrounds and rent. The bar for roi already high

 

Imported food restaurants especially challenged.

 

Too much competition. Putting aside the fancy specialty truly ethnic restaurants... there are just legions of mediocre Thai, Ramen, Katsu, buffet, etc restaurants in Bangkok. Problem here is investment. They're simply nothing to invest in if you are Thai.

Running a restaurant has always been a precarious business. Collapse, I think not!!! People are lazy by nature. Last Sunday it was pouring with rain in Bangkok, most of the traffic comprised of motor bikes delivering meals.  People stuck in their homes with all the time in the world to cook a meal, but heck no, they had to order in. Too busy working on the internet ... so they say, 

51 minutes ago, Blue Boy said:

He missed the MAJOR change needed - restaurants should stop being so greedy by putting prices up!  Example - one restaurant I go to in Sukhumvit Soi 8 has put its prices up 3 times this year. I won’t go back. I’d rather cook it myself at home. 

Prices up with portions you'd feed a 5-year old child.

43 minutes ago, KhaoHom said:

Street food 👍

Food court 👍

 

My wife and I go to food courts a lot - it's a great deal and it's a better class of people than the ones who go to food courts in the US.

50 minutes ago, Blue Boy said:

He missed the MAJOR change needed - restaurants should stop being so greedy by putting prices up!  Example - one restaurant I go to in Sukhumvit Soi 8 has put its prices up 3 times this year. I won’t go back. I’d rather cook it myself at home. 

This information while very useful and semi accurate is centered around BKK and major resort areas. The rising cost are accurate in the rural areas which is most of Thailand and affected the same way as BKK and other hotspots but for different reasons. The delivery options has had a HUGE impact as the companies when they charge 20 to 30% to use their services for on line menus, ordering, etc. That inflates the cost to the restaurant significantly. Good profit margins in the industry at the end of the day are typically 5% but that with normal mark ups. You cant survive giving away 20 to 30% of order values (thats 50% of the normal operating mark up required just to cover operating cost) to delivery companies as you lose money on that order unless you inflate the price to the customer, which chases many away.  Inflation of ingredients were up 20+ % last year and up again this year. If you want to stay in business you have to manage your cash flow, cost your menu correctly and then price it appropriately.  We have a cafe in southern Thailand so deal with this every day.  I've watched 10 small restaurants close on my soi this year, 1 didnt even last 1 month.  You have to have a niche, know your customer base and stay in the lane. 

When they start charging "Vegas" prices for drinks and food, I decided to go to the Night Markets.  

Off topic post about USA removed.

To the poster ....... Please don't do that again.

There are simply too many restaurants.  Attrition is inevitable if poorly located, badly managed and overpriced.

 

Chiang Mai has one restaurant which always provides top service, quality western and thai dishes at realistic prices.  Kwan's Kitchen also has adequate parking, air-conditioning and service with a smile.  A large bowl of delicious Rardna gai with fresh vegetables will set you back 97 baht.

 

Some former favourites closed during covid and never reopened. 

 

Ozark and Amataros are 2 great eateries where we enjoy farang food, slightly off the beaten track, but well worth the patronage.

2 hours ago, riverhigh said:

Running a restaurant has always been a precarious business. Collapse, I think not!!! People are lazy by nature. Last Sunday it was pouring with rain in Bangkok, most of the traffic comprised of motor bikes delivering meals.  People stuck in their homes with all the time in the world to cook a meal, but heck no, they had to order in. Too busy working on the internet ... so they say, 

A lot of Thai style 'condo' and apartments do not have a kitchen... 

1 minute ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

A lot of Thai style 'condo' and apartments do not have a kitchen... 

Who on earth wants to rent an apartment anywhere without cooking facilities?

9 minutes ago, NoshowJones said:

Who on earth wants to rent an apartment anywhere without cooking facilities?

It is not a matter of want, if you were on the low end of the market (lets say less than 10K / month) you get a studio with no kitchen typically (est 75%+).  If you have a condo at or below 15K you don't typically get a kitchen... (est. 60%+).  Having street food everywhere is really a necessity given the limitations of accomodation many could afford... The delivery option just made it easier to order it and have it delivered when it is not the best conditions for going out.   If they have a balcony with a sink then you might be able to prepare some limited food, though you are not suppose to have gas on balconies. 

Higher prices and smaller portions, when the economy is hurting are a recipe for lower sales. 

The restaurants catering to the missing Chinese tourists are the ones suffering, while restaurants serving indian or russian food are thriving.

41 minutes ago, Xonax said:

The restaurants catering to the missing Chinese tourists are the ones suffering, while restaurants serving indian or russian food are thriving.

Indian restaurants thriving ? They're absolutely dead in Pattaya with their silly overpricing. Most obviously a front for other nefarious activities. 

New local one round the corner next to 7/11. Everything is food by order and 40 baht, it's packed, location and price.

Not happening where I live.

 

 

A well-known restaurant in Pattaya has raised prices by 50% this year.

Another in Jomtien raised them by 50% last year and now by another 20% this year.

Thais resolve the lack of customers by raising prices to maintain the same profit, and then wonder why people stop coming.

 

 

49 minutes ago, proton said:

New local one round the corner next to 7/11. Everything is food by order and 40 baht, it's packed, location and price.

 

 

Oh yeah, right next to the 7/11 in Thailand. I know exactly where it is, I'll have no trouble finding it.  😆😆😆

 

 

Food courts are packed to the rafters.

i like a good restaurant and evening drink, but once a week for nice wine choice and food.

8 hours ago, mfd101 said:

So, still growing ...

Agree.  Sales still growing, large numbers of new restaurants still opening.  I don't know a single restaurant I go to regularly that has closed.  Useless article.  

9 hours ago, Blue Boy said:

He missed the MAJOR change needed - restaurants should stop being so greedy by putting prices up!  Example - one restaurant I go to in Sukhumvit Soi 8 has put its prices up 3 times this year. I won’t go back. I’d rather cook it myself at home. 

I own a restaurant and went to Macro today. Tomatoes up to 90 kilo from 49 last week. Chicken up 30 baht a kilo over the last few weeks ,and the list goes on . You cannot keep absorbing these increases. I would like to know what the reason for these increases are. So blame the retailer not the restaurant 

5 hours ago, Xonax said:

The restaurants catering to the missing Chinese tourists are the ones suffering, while restaurants serving indian or russian food are thriving.

Jeez I have never seen an Indian restaurant in Pattaya with more than a few customers In or mostly no customers and weatherbeaten menu boards outside with overpriced dishes. 

12 hours ago, riverhigh said:

Running a restaurant has always been a precarious business. Collapse, I think not!!! People are lazy by nature. Last Sunday it was pouring with rain in Bangkok, most of the traffic comprised of motor bikes delivering meals.  People stuck in their homes with all the time in the world to cook a meal, but heck no, they had to order in. Too busy working on the internet ... so they say, 

     It doesn't need to be raining.  Spouse and I have a Bangkok getaway condo in a very nice project and, yes, every condo has a nice kitchen.  So many residents order food delivery every day that the management has had to set up tables by the entrance to hold all the deliveries that aren't immediately met and picked up by the residents.  It wasn't that way when we first bought a number of years ago.  

9 hours ago, Toby1947 said:

Indian restaurants thriving ? They're absolutely dead in Pattaya with their silly overpricing. Most obviously a front for other nefarious activities. 

I live here and can confirm. Went for a 45 minute walk yesterday, passed at least a dozen Indian restaurants around 8 pm. All were mostly empty. It's like that every day. Draw your own conclusions. 

Quite a few Indian restaurants in Chiang Mai too. Two southern Indian ones which are excellent.

 

Very high standard Indian food here, suprised it's not more popular.  Quite pricey I guess.

21 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

Quite a few Indian restaurants in Chiang Mai too. Two southern Indian ones which are excellent.

 

Very high standard Indian food here, suprised it's not more popular.  Quite pricey I guess.

 

I like it but it gives me epic acid reflux.